Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Chi84]

It's funny. Everyone seems to parrot this as general wisdom of the trend line. But in order for that to be the case, there'd have to have been a massive backslide in children at WDW and across DCL products. If we're comparing the midpoint of Gen Alpha 5-10yo (so a pretty core demo of the parks today) to the peak of Millenial Disney Adults 34-39yo (early to mid 90s at the parks).

WDW would need significantly less of a mix of children visiting than they did AND further adjusted for attendance figures in the 90's.

I don't have much in the way other than saying I don't even feel like WDW lacks children present...

But since resort wide attendance is doubled, that means we'd need less than 50% of the kids in WDW that we ran in the 90's to start having less children visiting in the aggregate. An even worse ratio for Disneyland. Which I really, really don't believe we are at risk of.

I wasn’t referring to fewer children. I was talking about fewer repeat visitors. Those are not the same thing.

 

[BrianLo]

Disney pushing other brands like Marvel and Star Wars IMO dilutes their ability to raise awareness on Disney proper

I think there is a generation coming up on Disney Plus that it's hard to say how that turns out. That's a pretty powerful brand aggregator for the company in the home.

Yes, not every kid is going to be a Disney kid, but we didn't lack for variety as a very peak millennial and I guess I must accept the negative label as a childless millennial (Disney adult). We went through so many crazes and fads and franchises. Disney on VHS. Pokemon in elementary. Harry Potter and Star Wars Prequels in middle school. The MCU kicked up as late teenagers.

I think it's possible to hold affinity for many things.

 

[BrianLo]

I wasn’t referring to fewer children. I was talking about fewer repeat visitors. Those are not the same thing.

Fair enough. I can only speak for myself, but I went to WDW only once at 6 - and here I am.

Ironically we couldn't afford Disney in the 90s.

 

[Chi84]

Fair enough. I can only speak for myself, but I went to WDW only once at 6 - and here I am.

Ironically we couldn't afford Disney in the 90s.

You’ve only been to WDW once? Or only once when you were a child?

 

[BrianLo]

You’ve only been to WDW once? Or only once when you were a child?

Once as a child! Off property and we also went to Universal.

Once as a 16 year old, for full disclosure.

I'd also be curious if WDW has less repeat visitors in the aggregate (not as a percentage) that it did in the 90's too. DVC essentially represents a repeat visitor model that did not exist at that time.

 

[Chi84]

Once as a child! Off property and we also went to Universal.

Once as a 16 year old, for full disclosure.

I'd also be curious if WDW has less repeat visitors in the aggregate (not as a percentage) that it did in the 90's too. DVC essentially represents a repeat visitor model that did not exist at that time.

DVC didn’t exist in the 90’s?

 

[BrianLo]

I also agree with Chi, though... Disney is trying to have it both ways by putting out mostly nostalgia bait which largely isn't working with the intended audience and isn't necessarily designed to connect with today's kids.

This I definitely agree with. I don't think all the Renaissance remakes revitalized any of those franchises for actual children. They were ploys for their parents to show up with them and then everyone bounced off them.

Stitch might be a bit of a rare exception.

 

[BrianLo]

DVC didn’t exist in the 90’s?

It just started in that window. So like a few thousand members versus 200k and continually building today.

 

[Chi84]

It just started in that window. So like a few thousand members versus 200k and continually building today.

That’s a pretty small percentage of the annual visitor numbers, isn’t it? Aren’t there something like 50 to 60 million visitors each year?

 

[BrianLo]

That’s a pretty small percentage of the annual visitor numbers, isn’t it? Aren’t there something like 50 to 60 million visitors each year?

Gate clicks, not unique visitors.

But just as a one off tail wind for repeat visitors, even if it's like a few percent. The other would be annual pass holder uptake, which is significantly higher than the 90's.

I'm certainly not unconvinced there is less repeat visitors in the attendance mix, but even still the attendance has doubled from 30 years ago. So there'd have to be major changes 'in the mix' for there to be less "theme parks are a no longer an effective tool" gen on gen.

It's overall a very interesting hypothesis and I asked Len for data (on less kids) since that was a downstream talking point in his WDW is more expensive article, but he does not have that. I think it's more a forward looking fear than something we've yet seen. But I've noticed it's almost been taken as fact than what we can generally observe in the trends yet.

Maybe it's Gen Beta that is doomed for failure though.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I think posters are using different meanings for nostalgia. One dictionary definition is "a sentimental longing or wistful affection for the past, typically for a period or place with happy personal associations." Another is "a wistful or excessively sentimental yearning for return to or of some past" time.

The "past" part is important, as well as some type of constancy. Seeing movies based on characters that one's parents loved or going to parks once in a lifetime because they're unaffordable now - this is not a recipe for future nostalgia.

Sound reasoning to greenlight remakes.

View attachment 855835

Come on, they’re not Teslas!

I wasn’t referring to fewer children. I was talking about fewer repeat visitors. Those are not the same thing.

I didn’t visit WDW until I was 29. I don’t think a ton of my classmates went back in the 70’s to mid-80’s, either - even fewer repeatedly. We mostly stuck to the Jersey Shore.

Growing up with Disney on one of our 13 channels once or twice a week, with few alternatives (like Muppets, which they now own) seems to have done the trick.

That all may be why I don’t mind IP in the parks. The IP always came first for me.

That may be an argument for Disney+ helping things along. With something like 120 million subscribers, often multiple children per subscriber household, who knows?

 

[brideck]

I think that answer is already known.

I'm not sure we actually hear from a lot of 8-year olds on this forum. Just seems like a bunch of people over thirty shaking their fists at the sky and wishing for the good old days.

 

[Chi84]

Sound reasoning to greenlight remakes.

Come on, they’re not Teslas!

I didn’t visit WDW until I was 29. I don’t think a ton of my classmates went back in the 70’s to mid-80’s, either - even fewer repeatedly. We mostly stuck to the Jersey Shore.

Growing up with Disney on one of our 13 channels once or twice a week, with few alternatives (like Muppets, which they now own) seems to have done the trick.

That all may be why I don’t mind IP in the parks. The IP always came first for me.

That may be an argument for Disney+ helping things along. With something like 120 million subscribers, often multiple children per subscriber household, who knows?

I visited WDW for the first time when I was 29. Then went back for another 50+ visits.

Started out taking our parents, now we take our kids and grandkids.

We loved the all-inclusive feel of WDW. There’s less of that every visit now.

We still enjoy it but have branched out to cruising so we go less often now. If our kids had to pay, they would choose a less expensive vacation.

 

[BrianLo]

I'm not sure we actually hear from a lot of 8-year olds on this forum. Just seems like a bunch of people over thirty shaking their fists at the sky and wishing for the good old days.

Indeed. Regardless of nitpicking the sequels longevity (I don’t know!), it’s a bit hard to ignore Grogu’s merchandise penetration.

That one isn’t 50 year old men driving that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think it shows that people still care about Star Wars.

I think two things:
1. Discontent with what they’ve been given
2. The “trauma” of what they were given is wearing off…and now it’s starting gain some steam

Again…we saw the exact same thing 15 years. There is a direct precedent and therefore opportunity.

The management at LFL should be “retired” right now

 

[Phroobar]

The management at LFL should be “retired” right now

What like "old Yeller?"

 

[Agent H]

What like "old Yeller?"

Too soon.

 

[Phroobar]

Indeed. Regardless of nitpicking the sequels longevity (I don’t know!), it’s a bit hard to ignore Grogu’s merchandise penetration.

That one isn’t 50 year old men driving that.

I've given Grogu stuff by relatives because it is the only thing available at retail.

 

[Phroobar]

Too soon.

That movie was made 68 years ago! Spoilers!

 

[erasure fan1]

it’s a bit hard to ignore Grogu’s merchandise penetration.

That one isn’t 50 year old men driving that.

Grogu merch was being driven by everyone really. A big chunk was definitely people who really don't care about star wars at all. My youngest (4 at the time) thought baby yoda was adorable, still does, but has no real connection to star wars. It became a thing outside of, being star wars. But the og fans, like myself, leaned more into the mando and grogu stuff. I know I have a couple shirts, lego sets, hot wheels with them. And @Phroobar is right on. I have a 18" grogu and many other things gifted to me. So while that demo wasn't driving it directly, they still made up a good chunk I believe.