Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

So we went to the movies today… saw Sinners(good movie)….Anyway… we did not go to our normal theater as the times did not work out for schedule…. We did not visit any of the other theaters we frequent on occasion…. This was a completely new theater to us…. It is independently owned… but it is not an art house theater… it is a multiplex with 10 screens…. The theater itself felt like we entered a time warp…. I don’t know if they have done any renovations since the 1980’s…. When we enter the theater it was completely dark… I had to use my phone light to find our seat(despite no other newish updates… they still required seat reservations) then our movie started promptly at it’s scheduled time…. No trailers or advertisements at all…. I don’t know if I ever experienced that… it was a bit of a bizarre feeling… even in my youth in the 80’s they would display trivia questions on screen… good thing we arrived on time

 

[BrianLo]

That’s a valid point. And I agree the generational domination of Disney is waning. But I’d say X is the last “full in” gen…they just don’t admit it.

Are you talking about Star Wars here or Disney as a whole?

Yes, that's why I was talking about the children of the millennials.

What you are describing is liking or enjoying IP, which is different from nostalgia.

I’m adding what I said in another thread to more fully explain what I mean.

Are you actually referring to Gen Z or Gen Alpha here?

I disagree that children of Millenials are a waning downtrend, I actually think they are more indoctrinated into Disney. You reap what you sew. Gen Z is the one with really poor touchpoint to Disney. They are the byproduct of the 2000's output with some Cars thrown in for good measure. Plus are an echo of their by and large Gen X parents who weren't raised on home video and the animated Renaissance films.

Gen Alpha are the ones being raised on Frozen, Moana, Coco, Inside Out and Encanto with the sudden home access via D+ (that has a lot of echos of the VHS wave). It's too early to make calls on Gen Alpha. But my anecdotal experience is they don't have a lack of connection to Frozen and Moana.

 

[Chi84]

Are you talking about Star Wars here or Disney as a whole?




Are you actually referring to Gen Z or Gen Alpha here?

I disagree that children of Millenials are a waning downtrend, I actually think they are more indoctrinated into Disney. You reap what you sew. Gen Z is the one with really poor touchpoint to Disney. They are the byproduct of the 2000's output with some Cars thrown in for good measure. Plus are an echo of their by and large Gen X parents who weren't raised on home video and the animated Renaissance films.

Gen Alpha are the ones being raised on Frozen, Moana, Coco, Inside Out and Encanto with the sudden home access via D+ (that has a lot of echos of the VHS wave). It's too early to make calls on Gen Alpha. But my anecdotal experience is they don't have a lack of connection to Frozen and Moana.

They’re familiar with the IP but I’m talking about them being nostalgic for that IP when they’re adults. I don’t see that happening because there is so much more content out there competing for their interest.

My kids are millennials and have some nostalgia for Disney, mainly because we took annual trips to WDW. I don’t see that happening now because of the cost.

 

[erasure fan1]

Agreed, I think they care more than some around here like to admit.

But revenge of the sith is not Disney star wars. People still care about lucas star wars, that's what selling. A lot of fans have given up on Disney Star wars. They just don't get hyped at all for what Disney is doing. Do I think star wars can't come back? Absolutely not. I just don't see it happening under current management. I think Mando and Grogu will be a big tell to see where star wars is at currently.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I disagree that children of Millenials are a waning downtrend, I actually think they are more indoctrinated into Disney. You reap what you sew. Gen Z is the one with really poor touchpoint to Disney. They are the byproduct of the 2000's output with some Cars thrown in for good measure. Plus are an echo of their by and large Gen X parents who weren't raised on home video and the animated Renaissance films.

You bring up a good point about parents passing on their love of Disney to their children

The parents of Millennials were Boomers. Those who would see Walt on TV every week, knew of the Mousketeers, Davy Crockett and more. Saw theatrical re-releases of Snow White, Pinocchio, Peter Pan.

They knew the brand at a time when it peaked, and were raising kids during another peak, when the Disney of their youth was being broadcast on TV (Vault Disney) and having it's first and second round of home video releases, along side blockbuster new offerings in the parks and theaters.

That generation was primed to love Disney, and Disney benefited from the lack of serious competition in the early 90s.

Gen Alpha are the ones being raised on Frozen, Moana, Coco, Inside Out and Encanto with the sudden home access via D+ (that has a lot of echos of the VHS wave). It's too early to make calls on Gen Alpha. But my anecdotal experience is they don't have a lack of connection to Frozen and Moana.

While Gen Alpha will form strong attachments to specific Disney experiences, I don't think Disney's sphere of influence is as large as it was in the 90s, despite the company's growth. They have to compete with so many other things for kids attention, including non traditional media that didn't exist 30 years ago. If parent's today are priced out of Disney trips (or decide to go somewhere else) than that won't lead to the same generational right of passage. American animation has grown exponentially, and non US-content (Japanese in particular) is far more accessible than it was a generation ago.

Disney pushing other brands like Marvel and Star Wars IMO dilutes their ability to raise awareness on Disney proper and I don't think the remakes are leading kids today back to the originals like some hope. Maybe that's part of the reason Wish flopped. All the literal and figurative references went over their heads and didn't have any cultural meaning.

 

[DKampy]

Agreed, I think they care more than some around here like to admit.

Correct…. No other rereleases are making that kind of money including LotR or Harry Potter which some say people are more interested in these days

 

[Disney Irish]

My post did not single out Disney so let’s get that out of the way right off the bat. I have said it a million times, Disney will make the movies they want to make.

Any movie from any studio that screens to empty or near empty theaters are not selling enough concessions to survive.

Too many around here make this a Disney isolated thing, and so my response was just as much for them as it was for you.

You have me confused with other posts. I don’t give a cr@p about theaters. Theaters exist to support movie studios and Hollywood in my opinion. It’s the movie studios and Hollywood who should be worried in my opinion.

I'm not confusing you with anyone else. I'm well aware that you don't go to theaters (only going if your family drags you) or care about them.

Again my response was a general statement for all reading this thread. If anyone is worried about theaters then go, don't sit on the sidelines.

If movie theaters want to stay in business, movie studios must make movies that fill theaters. It’s the movie studios responsibility to make great movies, it’s NOT the movie going public’s responsibility in my opinion.

That unfortunately takes any responsibility out of the hands of the movie goer. Movie goers aren't innocent or even passive in this endeavor, they have a responsibility here too. It is their movie going habits that drive a lot of the decisions in Hollywood. Hollywood follows and chases after trends, if movie goers only go to a certain type of movie then a majority of movies produced will be of similar nature.

Long story short, if movie goers want more original movie then they need to start heading to originals that actually do get released. Then Hollywood will start making more and more originals rather than IPs driven movies and sequels/prequels/requels/reboots/etc.

This isn’t about a movie studio making a movie that loses 200M on a movie. This is about a movie studio (any movie studio) releasing movies that screen to empty or near empty theaters.

I let’s say a movie studio made great movie with an astronomical budget but the movie was so popular it packed the theaters, no one would care what it cost all they know is it’s good for the studio, the theaters and Hollywood.

Unfortunately as this forum has shown that just isn't the case. We've had quite a few movies released over the years that cost a lot and still packed them in theaters and they still get torn down by many folks here because of the budgets. Too many here still get worked up over high budgets.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think Mando and Grogu will be a big tell to see where star wars is at currently.

Agreed, I think it will be to a point. I think the Star Fighter movie will be even more telling in my opinion, since that will have almost zero tie back to anything that came before it.

 

[erasure fan1]

If parent's today are priced out of Disney trips (or decide to go somewhere else) than that won't lead to the same generational right of passage.

This is the thing that in my eyes can be most problematic for Disney. I know that my time going to the parks is my biggest area of nostalgia. If I didn't have that, I wouldn't be as big of a fan as I am.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Are you talking about Star Wars here or Disney as a whole?

Both actually…which I’m sure Disney was fully aware of before they forked over $4 bil to George

They just have intentionally failed with it. They’ll never admit it…but trying to fool or overpower that fan base…that was already stirred up since 1999…had ZERO chance of success

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is the thing that in my eyes can be most problematic for Disney. I know that my time going to the parks is my biggest area of nostalgia. If I didn't have that, I wouldn't be as big of a fan as I am.

The problem is even Bob knows he’ll be dead by then and doesn’t care

He won’t leave until he’s dead…but will continue to do press until it flatlines

 

[erasure fan1]

Agreed, I think it will be to a point. I think the Star Fighter movie will be even more telling in my opinion, since that will have almost zero tie back to anything that came before it.

Yea they'll both be pretty telling. I think Mando is the bigger Canary in the coal mine. Season one was a true phenomenon. So if the jump to the big screen only results in so so reception, starfighter might just end up doa. It will be interesting if nothing else.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Agreed, I think it will be to a point. I think the Star Fighter movie will be even more telling in my opinion, since that will have almost zero tie back to anything that came before it.

Other than it’s gonna be all cool ships from return of the Jedi…more or less?

 

[Disney Irish]

Other than it’s gonna be all cool ships from return of the Jedi…more or less?

Well given Starfighter is suppose to be set in the New Republic era (after the ST) I would hope they would have a few new ship designs.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well given Starfighter is suppose to be set in the New Republic era (after the ST) I would hope they would have a few new ship designs.

We’ll see how it plays…but I bet they start where their bread was buttered

If it ever gets made

Which was another JJ mistake

 

[Nubs70]

Well given Starfighter is suppose to be set in the New Republic era (after the ST) I would hope they would have a few new ship designs.

 

[brideck]

It will be interesting to see what happens…. My younger Brother’s 2 kids… daughter(12) and Son(10) favorite Star Wars trilogy is the Disney sequels… favorite characters are Rey and Kylo…they recently watched the rest and that is still the case…. They hated the prequels… could barely sit through them…. While at the same time I have cousins in their 30’s who say the prequels are peak Star Wars

Yeah, this is what I was talking about. Each generation has had their own Star Wars trilogy to love, it just remains to be seen if the new one worked with the young generation or not. Believe me, it came as a shock when those high schoolers (now in their 20s) would say that the prequels are their favorite movies because I strongly disagree with them.

I also agree with Chi, though... Disney is trying to have it both ways by putting out mostly nostalgia bait which largely isn't working with the intended audience and isn't necessarily designed to connect with today's kids.

 

[Screamface]

it just remains to be seen if the new one worked with the young generation or not.

I think that answer is already known.

 

[Agent H]

Yeah, this is what I was talking about. Each generation has had their own Star Wars trilogy to love, it just remains to be seen if the new one worked with the young generation or not. Believe me, it came as a shock when those high schoolers (now in their 20s) would say that the prequels are their favorite movies because I strongly disagree with them.

I also agree with Chi, though... Disney is trying to have it both ways by putting out mostly nostalgia bait which largely isn't working with the intended audience and isn't necessarily designed to connect with today's kids.

I’m curious what you and @Chi84 mean by them trying to have it both ways. Are you referring to the live action remakes?

 

[BrianLo]

My kids are millennials and have some nostalgia for Disney, mainly because we took annual trips to WDW. I don’t see that happening now because of the cost.

It's funny. Everyone seems to parrot this as general wisdom of the trend line. But in order for that to be the case, there'd have to have been a massive backslide in children at WDW and across DCL products. If we're comparing the midpoint of Gen Alpha 5-10yo (so a pretty core demo of the parks today) to the peak of Millenial Disney Adults 34-39yo (early to mid 90s at the parks).

WDW would need significantly less of a mix of children visiting than they did AND further adjusted for attendance figures in the 90's.

I don't have much in the way other than saying I don't even feel like WDW lacks children present...

But since resort wide attendance is doubled, that means we'd need less than 50% of the kids in WDW that we ran in the 90's to start having less children visiting in the aggregate. An even worse ratio for Disneyland. Which I really, really don't believe we are at risk of.