Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well given Starfighter is suppose to be set in the New Republic era (after the ST) I would hope they would have a few new ship designs.

We’ll see how it plays…but I bet they start where their bread was buttered

If it ever gets made

Which was another JJ mistake

 

[Nubs70]

Well given Starfighter is suppose to be set in the New Republic era (after the ST) I would hope they would have a few new ship designs.

 

[brideck]

It will be interesting to see what happens…. My younger Brother’s 2 kids… daughter(12) and Son(10) favorite Star Wars trilogy is the Disney sequels… favorite characters are Rey and Kylo…they recently watched the rest and that is still the case…. They hated the prequels… could barely sit through them…. While at the same time I have cousins in their 30’s who say the prequels are peak Star Wars

Yeah, this is what I was talking about. Each generation has had their own Star Wars trilogy to love, it just remains to be seen if the new one worked with the young generation or not. Believe me, it came as a shock when those high schoolers (now in their 20s) would say that the prequels are their favorite movies because I strongly disagree with them.

I also agree with Chi, though... Disney is trying to have it both ways by putting out mostly nostalgia bait which largely isn't working with the intended audience and isn't necessarily designed to connect with today's kids.

 

[Screamface]

it just remains to be seen if the new one worked with the young generation or not.

I think that answer is already known.

 

[Agent H]

Yeah, this is what I was talking about. Each generation has had their own Star Wars trilogy to love, it just remains to be seen if the new one worked with the young generation or not. Believe me, it came as a shock when those high schoolers (now in their 20s) would say that the prequels are their favorite movies because I strongly disagree with them.

I also agree with Chi, though... Disney is trying to have it both ways by putting out mostly nostalgia bait which largely isn't working with the intended audience and isn't necessarily designed to connect with today's kids.

I’m curious what you and @Chi84 mean by them trying to have it both ways. Are you referring to the live action remakes?

 

[BrianLo]

My kids are millennials and have some nostalgia for Disney, mainly because we took annual trips to WDW. I don’t see that happening now because of the cost.

It's funny. Everyone seems to parrot this as general wisdom of the trend line. But in order for that to be the case, there'd have to have been a massive backslide in children at WDW and across DCL products. If we're comparing the midpoint of Gen Alpha 5-10yo (so a pretty core demo of the parks today) to the peak of Millenial Disney Adults 34-39yo (early to mid 90s at the parks).

WDW would need significantly less of a mix of children visiting than they did AND further adjusted for attendance figures in the 90's.

I don't have much in the way other than saying I don't even feel like WDW lacks children present...

But since resort wide attendance is doubled, that means we'd need less than 50% of the kids in WDW that we ran in the 90's to start having less children visiting in the aggregate. An even worse ratio for Disneyland. Which I really, really don't believe we are at risk of.

 

[Chi84]

It's funny. Everyone seems to parrot this as general wisdom of the trend line. But in order for that to be the case, there'd have to have been a massive backslide in children at WDW and across DCL products. If we're comparing the midpoint of Gen Alpha 5-10yo (so a pretty core demo of the parks today) to the peak of Millenial Disney Adults 34-39yo (early to mid 90s at the parks).

WDW would need significantly less of a mix of children visiting than they did AND further adjusted for attendance figures in the 90's.

I don't have much in the way other than saying I don't even feel like WDW lacks children present...

But since resort wide attendance is doubled, that means we'd need less than 50% of the kids in WDW that we ran in the 90's to start having less children visiting in the aggregate. An even worse ratio for Disneyland. Which I really, really don't believe we are at risk of.

I wasn’t referring to fewer children. I was talking about fewer repeat visitors. Those are not the same thing.

 

[BrianLo]

Disney pushing other brands like Marvel and Star Wars IMO dilutes their ability to raise awareness on Disney proper

I think there is a generation coming up on Disney Plus that it's hard to say how that turns out. That's a pretty powerful brand aggregator for the company in the home.

Yes, not every kid is going to be a Disney kid, but we didn't lack for variety as a very peak millennial and I guess I must accept the negative label as a childless millennial (Disney adult). We went through so many crazes and fads and franchises. Disney on VHS. Pokemon in elementary. Harry Potter and Star Wars Prequels in middle school. The MCU kicked up as late teenagers.

I think it's possible to hold affinity for many things.

 

[BrianLo]

I wasn’t referring to fewer children. I was talking about fewer repeat visitors. Those are not the same thing.

Fair enough. I can only speak for myself, but I went to WDW only once at 6 - and here I am.

Ironically we couldn't afford Disney in the 90s.

 

[Chi84]

Fair enough. I can only speak for myself, but I went to WDW only once at 6 - and here I am.

Ironically we couldn't afford Disney in the 90s.

You’ve only been to WDW once? Or only once when you were a child?

 

[BrianLo]

You’ve only been to WDW once? Or only once when you were a child?

Once as a child! Off property and we also went to Universal.

Once as a 16 year old, for full disclosure.

I'd also be curious if WDW has less repeat visitors in the aggregate (not as a percentage) that it did in the 90's too. DVC essentially represents a repeat visitor model that did not exist at that time.

 

[Chi84]

Once as a child! Off property and we also went to Universal.

Once as a 16 year old, for full disclosure.

I'd also be curious if WDW has less repeat visitors in the aggregate (not as a percentage) that it did in the 90's too. DVC essentially represents a repeat visitor model that did not exist at that time.

DVC didn’t exist in the 90’s?

 

[BrianLo]

I also agree with Chi, though... Disney is trying to have it both ways by putting out mostly nostalgia bait which largely isn't working with the intended audience and isn't necessarily designed to connect with today's kids.

This I definitely agree with. I don't think all the Renaissance remakes revitalized any of those franchises for actual children. They were ploys for their parents to show up with them and then everyone bounced off them.

Stitch might be a bit of a rare exception.

 

[BrianLo]

DVC didn’t exist in the 90’s?

It just started in that window. So like a few thousand members versus 200k and continually building today.

 

[Chi84]

It just started in that window. So like a few thousand members versus 200k and continually building today.

That’s a pretty small percentage of the annual visitor numbers, isn’t it? Aren’t there something like 50 to 60 million visitors each year?

 

[BrianLo]

That’s a pretty small percentage of the annual visitor numbers, isn’t it? Aren’t there something like 50 to 60 million visitors each year?

Gate clicks, not unique visitors.

But just as a one off tail wind for repeat visitors, even if it's like a few percent. The other would be annual pass holder uptake, which is significantly higher than the 90's.

I'm certainly not unconvinced there is less repeat visitors in the attendance mix, but even still the attendance has doubled from 30 years ago. So there'd have to be major changes 'in the mix' for there to be less "theme parks are a no longer an effective tool" gen on gen.

It's overall a very interesting hypothesis and I asked Len for data (on less kids) since that was a downstream talking point in his WDW is more expensive article, but he does not have that. I think it's more a forward looking fear than something we've yet seen. But I've noticed it's almost been taken as fact than what we can generally observe in the trends yet.

Maybe it's Gen Beta that is doomed for failure though.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I think posters are using different meanings for nostalgia. One dictionary definition is "a sentimental longing or wistful affection for the past, typically for a period or place with happy personal associations." Another is "a wistful or excessively sentimental yearning for return to or of some past" time.

The "past" part is important, as well as some type of constancy. Seeing movies based on characters that one's parents loved or going to parks once in a lifetime because they're unaffordable now - this is not a recipe for future nostalgia.

Sound reasoning to greenlight remakes.

View attachment 855835

Come on, they’re not Teslas!

I wasn’t referring to fewer children. I was talking about fewer repeat visitors. Those are not the same thing.

I didn’t visit WDW until I was 29. I don’t think a ton of my classmates went back in the 70’s to mid-80’s, either - even fewer repeatedly. We mostly stuck to the Jersey Shore.

Growing up with Disney on one of our 13 channels once or twice a week, with few alternatives (like Muppets, which they now own) seems to have done the trick.

That all may be why I don’t mind IP in the parks. The IP always came first for me.

That may be an argument for Disney+ helping things along. With something like 120 million subscribers, often multiple children per subscriber household, who knows?

 

[brideck]

I think that answer is already known.

I'm not sure we actually hear from a lot of 8-year olds on this forum. Just seems like a bunch of people over thirty shaking their fists at the sky and wishing for the good old days.

 

[Chi84]

Sound reasoning to greenlight remakes.

Come on, they’re not Teslas!

I didn’t visit WDW until I was 29. I don’t think a ton of my classmates went back in the 70’s to mid-80’s, either - even fewer repeatedly. We mostly stuck to the Jersey Shore.

Growing up with Disney on one of our 13 channels once or twice a week, with few alternatives (like Muppets, which they now own) seems to have done the trick.

That all may be why I don’t mind IP in the parks. The IP always came first for me.

That may be an argument for Disney+ helping things along. With something like 120 million subscribers, often multiple children per subscriber household, who knows?

I visited WDW for the first time when I was 29. Then went back for another 50+ visits.

Started out taking our parents, now we take our kids and grandkids.

We loved the all-inclusive feel of WDW. There’s less of that every visit now.

We still enjoy it but have branched out to cruising so we go less often now. If our kids had to pay, they would choose a less expensive vacation.

 

[BrianLo]

I'm not sure we actually hear from a lot of 8-year olds on this forum. Just seems like a bunch of people over thirty shaking their fists at the sky and wishing for the good old days.

Indeed. Regardless of nitpicking the sequels longevity (I don’t know!), it’s a bit hard to ignore Grogu’s merchandise penetration.

That one isn’t 50 year old men driving that.