Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

The first pass box office numbers are out for this weekend, gang. Captain America 4 declined by 68% from last weekend.

I'm pretty sure that qualifies it for an Oof!, don't you think? It seems like an Oof!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 21, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of February 21, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

What’s the feel for Thunderbolts? Are audiences excited, any test screening info? Trailer gave a guardians of Galaxy feel. Hope it rocks.
That and daredevil look pretty good.

Audiences seem to be interested, if not low-key excited for it thanks to the trailers, and yes the test screenings are reportedly going real strong for its movie.

Also, not just Thunderbolts* and Daredevil, The Fantastic Four: First Steps also looks real strong, too.

 

[TP2000]

Using the comparison we had last week of the past five Marvel movies, here's how the box office trendline looks for Captain America 4, now that it's had two weekends to establish itself on the graph...

Enjoy this sweet and juicy Cherry-Picked Data while fresh cherries are still way out of season and as the polar vortex continues to swirl over North America....

The trendline, and the box office data overall, seem to indicate Captain America 4 is going to fall just short of Ant Man Quantumania. But at least Captain America 4 will do better than The Marvels, so there's that.

Captain America 4 has opened in all foreign countries as of last weekend, so the foreign box office is following the same trendline as the domestic box office. There are no foreign countries left to open in.

Captain America: Brave New World (2025) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Captain America: Brave New World (2025) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

I just Googled (still a hive of AI generated disinformation and misinformation that should be ashamed of itself, don't forget), and the industry trade papers confirm that a 68% drop in the second weekend for Captain America 4 is not good.

While Variety didn't use the phrase Oof!, it seems that is what they meant.

"Should “Captain America” follow suit with “Quantumania” rather than “Guardians Vol. 3,” it’ll be concerning for Disney, whose once impenetrable MCU has shown concerning signs of wear and tear in the post-“Avengers: Endgame” era."

...says senior Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “There’s still no denying these movies have appeal. But a second weekend drop of 68% reflects less audience enthusiasm than you’d expect from Marvel.”

Box Office: ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ Suffers 68% Drop in Second Weekend

"Captain America: Brave New World" is losing momentum at the box office, even during a muted winter weekend with only a smattering of new releases.

variety.com

 

[TalkingHead]

What’s the feel for Thunderbolts? Are audiences excited, any test screening info? Trailer gave a guardians of Galaxy feel. Hope it rocks.
That and daredevil look pretty good.

Are any of these characters draws for casual fans who don’t watch all the MCU things?

I like a couple of the lead actors but I wouldn’t bother seeing it because I haven’t done the MCU homework. Guessing a lot of people may feel the same way.

 

[Dranth]

I hear you but given the lack of specific data on Disney’s revenue splits from streaming, PVOD, SVOD, and co-advert campaigns, I’m sticking with the traditional method to determine break even for companies like Disney and Universal.
So for now, will stick with $708 Million as break even for Snow White.
Of course always subject to change, and will wait for Disney to show their splits.

The traditional method is 2.0 - 2.5x production and it has proven to be far more accurate over the decades than any other method. Sure some fall outside of that and maybe this ends up being one of the exceptions but why assume that out of the gate?

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Are any of these characters draws for casual fans who don’t watch all the MCU things?

I like a couple of the lead actors but I wouldn’t bother seeing it because I haven’t done the MCU homework. Guessing a lot of people may feel the same way.

I want to see all of these.

I like the look of FF


Thunderbolts feels like Guardians


Daredevil looks like a winner

 

[MagicMouseFan]

The traditional method is 2.0 - 2.5x production and it has proven to be far more accurate over the decades than any other method. Sure some fall outside of that and maybe this ends up being one of the exceptions but why assume that out of the gate?

Are you assuming low marketing costs (0-25% of production) for Snow White?
I have it as 140 million

 

[Dranth]

Are you assuming low marketing costs (0-25% of production) for Snow White?
I have it as 140 million

I stick with the 2.5 rule because it has proven the most accurate which allows me to ignore marketing. The rule works because the vast majority of the time, the amount of marketing spend on the theatrical release is covered by reaching 2.5x the production budget.

That doesn't mean they didn't approve and won't spend more on marketing for the streaming release, digital purchase, etc. but that should apply against the money made from those sources, not theatrical.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I want to see all of these.

I like the look of FF


Thunderbolts feels like Guardians


Daredevil looks like a winner

Agreed.

 

[TalkingHead]

I want to see all of these.

I like the look of FF


Thunderbolts feels like Guardians


Daredevil looks like a winner

Meant specifically Thunderballs (too late to change the title?). Is there anything there to draw in a casual crowd? If not it’s going to be a repeat of this movie.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Meant specifically Thunderballs (too late to change the title?). Is there anything there to draw in a casual crowd? If not it’s going to be a repeat of this movie.

Thunderbolts, BOLTS, actually.

And what draws in this crowd is the mystery character of Bob and if he is or isn’t Sentry, along with finding out who that mystery shadow character is.

Also, what doesn’t make it feel like Guardians is that these are characters we’ve met before, even Ghost, and this feels Marvel’s version of Expendables but with better actors and actresses and a better story.

 

[TalkingHead]

And what draws in this crowd is the mystery character of Bob and if he is or isn’t Sentry, along with finding out who that mystery shadow character is.

Ok you’ve convinced me it may actually do worse than Captain A4.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Ok you’ve convinced me it may actually do worse than Captain A4.

I think you mean BETTER than Captain America 4, because it’ll be a much better and good movie with more interesting characters, and because it will mark the beginning of MCU movies with consistent quality control again.