Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

I’ll stick with 708 for now, under standard theatrical revenue splits and the reported expenses, a $535 million break-even does not make sense.

Where’s your streaming split, your PVOD split, your SVOD split, your co-advert campaigns.

How can an advertising campaign be fully spent when the movie hasn’t even released yet. How can you know the final marketing when Disney doesn’t even know the final marketing. The marketing campaign continues and is titrated well after opening day.

It’s 535. Until you can present me with meaningful examples why Snow White is the exception to the rule, you are not right.

Find me any exception to the rule? There’s actually a few… and it doesn’t help the case.


Did you change your username from something else?

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Where’s your streaming split, your PVOD split, your SVOD split, your co-advert campaigns.

How can an advertising campaign be fully spent when the movie hasn’t even released yet. How can you know the final marketing when Disney doesn’t even know the final marketing. The marketing campaign continues and is titrated well after opening day.

It’s 535. Until you can present me with meaningful examples why Snow White is the exception to the rule, you are not right.

Find me any exception to the rule? There’s actually a few… and it doesn’t help the case.


Did you change your username from something else?

I did change my name…

standard break-even point for Snow White is around $708 million, based on total costs of $353.9 million (net production $213.9M + marketing $140M) and a 50% theater split.

splits (streaming, PVOD, SVOD, co-advert) can make a difference if significant. If other revenues are substantial, the box office break-even can be lower.

if O = $86M, the required box office is $535M instead of $708M.

without specific data, we rely on the standard $708M.

I’m not rooting for a failure, I’m hoping it makes 2 billion. I’m crunching numbers.

Whether Snow White will actually secure such splits is unknown. There’s no concrete, widely accepted example demonstrating that Disney’s specific deals for Snow White will reduce its effective break-even to $535 million.

Most conventional analyses still stick to the 50/50 theatrical split, which is an estimate of $708 million.

 

[BrianLo]

I did change my name…

standard break-even point for Snow White is around $708 million, based on total costs of $353.9 million (net production $213.9M + marketing $140M) and a 50% theater split.

splits (streaming, PVOD, SVOD, co-advert) can make a difference if significant. If other revenues are substantial, the box office break-even can be lower.

if O = $86M, the required box office is $535M instead of $708M.

without specific data, we rely on the standard $708M.

I’m not rooting for a failure, I’m hoping it makes 2 billion. I’m crunching numbers.

Of course they are significant. There’s like a dollar of back end profit for every dollar in the box office in most circumstances.

We don’t pretend to know what they are, we estimate it around a fixed variable.

You don’t know what marketing is, you aren’t crunching numbers, you are just making up numbers and leaving other ones you also don’t know out. You don’t know what they spent on interest and expenses, you don’t know what participation will be, you don’t know what they spent on marketing.

We know three things. The production budget, we will know the box office and we know they share a 2.5X fixed relationship on the pessimistic end. Sometimes 2.3, sometimes as low as 2.0! But never 3.3.

It took me like two years to talk people down off a ledge from 3X… no one thinks it’s 3.3X. I assume you were here for this?

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Of course they are significant. There’s like a dollar of back end profit for every dollar in the box office in most circumstances.

We don’t pretend to know what they are, we estimate it around a fixed variable.

You don’t know what marketing is, you aren’t crunching numbers, you are just making up numbers and leaving other ones you also don’t know out. You don’t know what they spent on interest and expenses, you don’t know what participation will be, you don’t know what they spent on marketing.

We know three things. The production budget, we will know the box office and we know they share a 2.5X fixed relationship on the pessimistic end. Sometimes 2.3, sometimes as low as 2.0! But never 3.3.

It took me like two years to talk people down off a ledge from 3X… no one thinks it’s 3.3X. I assume you were here for this?

Until we know how much Disney has earned from streaming, PVOD, and other back end deals, I think that the best action to take is to use the conventional break even point.

Its actual numbers such as the production and promotional expenses and the usual 50/50 split of the box office earnings which for this film is approximately 708 million.

It’s possible to reach a break even of 535 million if Disney is able to get very favorable conditions, but since there is no information on how the additional revenue is shared between the studio and its partners (or Disney itself), it is not easy to verify this figure. using splits model to predict break even is quite complicated because there is not enough information available.

I still believe using the 708 million break even point estimation because it’s more accurate.

I understand your approach, but since we have no information on those back end splits, the conventional approach is still the best to use.

Is there public information available for Disneys or Universal’s specific revenue splits for movies?

 

[BrianLo]

I understand your approach, but since we have no information on those back end splits, the conventional approach is still the best to use.

Your approach for calculating a break even is not convention.

Is there public information available for Disneys or Universal’s specific revenue splits for movies?

Deadline has production sheets for plenty of their movies. Look up their box office tournament or biggest bombs.

If you really want me to get into the weeds I anticipate Snow will have marketing costs banding between 100-180M depending on if it totally flops or significantly over-indexes. Streaming will likewise band around 90-180M. Home entertainment bands around 40-100m. Additional expenses like Residuals, Interest, Overhead and Participation could swing between 70-150M.

All of these numbers are in flux because they are tied to box office performance as a leading indicator for how hard they continue to spend and reimburse the production.

Which is why the convention for presenting a break even figure has always been 2.5X in the last 20 years and even 2.0X into the 90's.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

They really need to screen Thunderbolts* a week or 9 days early like they did Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 and Shang-Chi so they can boost ticket presales for that movie and ensure it’s a box office hit, especially if it is a great movie, in the wake of Brave New World not doing good.

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Your approach for calculating a break even is not convention.



Deadline has production sheets for plenty of their movies. Look up their box office tournament or biggest bombs.

If you really want me to get into the weeds I anticipate Snow will have marketing costs banding between 100-180M depending on if it totally flops or significantly over-indexes. Streaming will likewise band around 90-180M. Home entertainment bands around 40-100m. Additional expenses like Residuals, Interest, Overhead and Participation could swing between 70-150M.

All of these numbers are in flux because they are tied to box office performance as a leading indicator for how hard they continue to spend and reimburse the production.

Which is why the convention for presenting a break even figure has always been 2.5X in the last 20 years and even 2.0X into the 90's.

I hear you but given the lack of specific data on Disney’s revenue splits from streaming, PVOD, SVOD, and co-advert campaigns, I’m sticking with the traditional method to determine break even for companies like Disney and Universal.
So for now, will stick with $708 Million as break even for Snow White.
Of course always subject to change, and will wait for Disney to show their splits.

 

[MagicMouseFan]

They really need to screen Thunderbolts* a week or 9 days early like they did Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 and Shang-Chi so they can boost ticket presales for that movie and ensure it’s a box office hit, especially if it is a great movie, in the wake of Brave New World not doing good.

What’s the feel for Thunderbolts? Are audiences excited, any test screening info? Trailer gave a guardians of Galaxy feel. Hope it rocks.
That and daredevil look pretty good.

 

[TP2000]

The first pass box office numbers are out for this weekend, gang. Captain America 4 declined by 68% from last weekend.

I'm pretty sure that qualifies it for an Oof!, don't you think? It seems like an Oof!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for October 3, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of October 3, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

What’s the feel for Thunderbolts? Are audiences excited, any test screening info? Trailer gave a guardians of Galaxy feel. Hope it rocks.
That and daredevil look pretty good.

Audiences seem to be interested, if not low-key excited for it thanks to the trailers, and yes the test screenings are reportedly going real strong for its movie.

Also, not just Thunderbolts* and Daredevil, The Fantastic Four: First Steps also looks real strong, too.

 

[TP2000]

Using the comparison we had last week of the past five Marvel movies, here's how the box office trendline looks for Captain America 4, now that it's had two weekends to establish itself on the graph...

Enjoy this sweet and juicy Cherry-Picked Data while fresh cherries are still way out of season and as the polar vortex continues to swirl over North America....

The trendline, and the box office data overall, seem to indicate Captain America 4 is going to fall just short of Ant Man Quantumania. But at least Captain America 4 will do better than The Marvels, so there's that.

Captain America 4 has opened in all foreign countries as of last weekend, so the foreign box office is following the same trendline as the domestic box office. There are no foreign countries left to open in.

Captain America: Brave New World (2025) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Captain America: Brave New World (2025) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

I just Googled (still a hive of AI generated disinformation and misinformation that should be ashamed of itself, don't forget), and the industry trade papers confirm that a 68% drop in the second weekend for Captain America 4 is not good.

While Variety didn't use the phrase Oof!, it seems that is what they meant.

"Should “Captain America” follow suit with “Quantumania” rather than “Guardians Vol. 3,” it’ll be concerning for Disney, whose once impenetrable MCU has shown concerning signs of wear and tear in the post-“Avengers: Endgame” era."

...says senior Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “There’s still no denying these movies have appeal. But a second weekend drop of 68% reflects less audience enthusiasm than you’d expect from Marvel.”

Box Office: ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ Suffers 68% Drop in Second Weekend

"Captain America: Brave New World" is losing momentum at the box office, even during a muted winter weekend with only a smattering of new releases.

variety.com

 

[TalkingHead]

What’s the feel for Thunderbolts? Are audiences excited, any test screening info? Trailer gave a guardians of Galaxy feel. Hope it rocks.
That and daredevil look pretty good.

Are any of these characters draws for casual fans who don’t watch all the MCU things?

I like a couple of the lead actors but I wouldn’t bother seeing it because I haven’t done the MCU homework. Guessing a lot of people may feel the same way.

 

[Dranth]

I hear you but given the lack of specific data on Disney’s revenue splits from streaming, PVOD, SVOD, and co-advert campaigns, I’m sticking with the traditional method to determine break even for companies like Disney and Universal.
So for now, will stick with $708 Million as break even for Snow White.
Of course always subject to change, and will wait for Disney to show their splits.

The traditional method is 2.0 - 2.5x production and it has proven to be far more accurate over the decades than any other method. Sure some fall outside of that and maybe this ends up being one of the exceptions but why assume that out of the gate?

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Are any of these characters draws for casual fans who don’t watch all the MCU things?

I like a couple of the lead actors but I wouldn’t bother seeing it because I haven’t done the MCU homework. Guessing a lot of people may feel the same way.

I want to see all of these.

I like the look of FF


Thunderbolts feels like Guardians


Daredevil looks like a winner

 

[MagicMouseFan]

The traditional method is 2.0 - 2.5x production and it has proven to be far more accurate over the decades than any other method. Sure some fall outside of that and maybe this ends up being one of the exceptions but why assume that out of the gate?

Are you assuming low marketing costs (0-25% of production) for Snow White?
I have it as 140 million

 

[Dranth]

Are you assuming low marketing costs (0-25% of production) for Snow White?
I have it as 140 million

I stick with the 2.5 rule because it has proven the most accurate which allows me to ignore marketing. The rule works because the vast majority of the time, the amount of marketing spend on the theatrical release is covered by reaching 2.5x the production budget.

That doesn't mean they didn't approve and won't spend more on marketing for the streaming release, digital purchase, etc. but that should apply against the money made from those sources, not theatrical.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I want to see all of these.

I like the look of FF


Thunderbolts feels like Guardians


Daredevil looks like a winner

Agreed.

 

[TalkingHead]

I want to see all of these.

I like the look of FF


Thunderbolts feels like Guardians


Daredevil looks like a winner

Meant specifically Thunderballs (too late to change the title?). Is there anything there to draw in a casual crowd? If not it’s going to be a repeat of this movie.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Meant specifically Thunderballs (too late to change the title?). Is there anything there to draw in a casual crowd? If not it’s going to be a repeat of this movie.

Thunderbolts, BOLTS, actually.

And what draws in this crowd is the mystery character of Bob and if he is or isn’t Sentry, along with finding out who that mystery shadow character is.

Also, what doesn’t make it feel like Guardians is that these are characters we’ve met before, even Ghost, and this feels Marvel’s version of Expendables but with better actors and actresses and a better story.