Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Chi84]

I agree it wasn’t a billion dollar movie but disagree about Zegler, I think she’s probably driven away half it’s potential audience.

When it was announced I’d have guessed it would pull similar numbers to Cinderella, somewhere in the $600-700 million range (inflation adjusted), with all the animosity around the star my guess is it’ll be half that now.

If it hits $600 million I’ll happily admit I was wrong though, and that the controversy was overblown. I thought the Little Mermaid would do far worse as a result of controversy also and it did far better than I expected with all the noise surrounding it.

The manufactured controversy surrounding both of those movies was very strong.

 

[BrianLo]

I agree it wasn’t a billion dollar movie but disagree about Zegler, I think she’s probably driven away half it’s potential audience.

In order to drive away half the audience, the majority of the audience would need to be aware of what she’s said. I think you are are way overestimating that awareness. It’s a very small fraction.

There was a lot of bad press around Cynthia Erivo immediately prior to Wicked that got no play here. I’d be surprised if even half the people that watched Wicked know her name (admittedly, I just had to look it up).

I think Snow White fails on its own merit, namely the appetite for these remakes is rapidly diminishing. Plus Dopey is nightmare fuel.

 

[Farerb]

In order to drive away half the audience, the majority of the audience would need to be aware of what she’s said. I think you are are way overestimating that awareness. It’s a very small fraction.

There was a lot of bad press around Cynthia Erivo immediately prior to Wicked that got no play here. I’d be surprised if even half the people that watched Wicked know her name (admittedly, I just had to look it up).

I think Snow White fails on its own merit, namely the appetite for these remakes is rapidly diminishing.

The controversy surrounding Erivo was mild and mostly just cringeworthy. With Rachel it was just controversy after controversy after controversy, and I think most people are aware even if they don't know every minutiae. All it takes is for someone to tell them "hey did you hear what the actress from Disney's upcoming Snow White remake said?" to make them decide "well then not going to watch the movie now".

 

[BrianLo]

The controversy surrounding Erivo was mild and mostly just cringeworthy. With Rachel it was just controversy after controversy after controversy, and I think most people are aware even if they don't know every minutiae. All it takes is for someone to tell them "hey did you hear what the actress from Disney's upcoming Snow White remake said?" to make them decide "well then not going to watch the movie now".

Again, I’d be surprised if half the potential audience of Snow White even knows the actresses name. She’s not a super big actress.

More I just take issue with ‘half’. I realize the comments are political and the nature of the country is split. That’s where the half is derived from. But that would the require the entire potential audience to be briefed on her controversial statement. People are really not that aware and involvement in these niche forums misleads us into that. We have ample evidence stars don’t really drive movies anymore.

Unaided awareness on Snow White (the whole film) is currently 2%, for example… and they have massive ad campaigns for that.

 

[Disney Irish]

The controversy surrounding Erivo was mild and mostly just cringeworthy. With Rachel it was just controversy after controversy after controversy, and I think most people are aware even if they don't know every minutiae. All it takes is for someone to tell them "hey did you hear what the actress from Disney's upcoming Snow White remake said?" to make them decide "well then not going to watch the movie now".

You’re making the assumption that the majority (or even half) the movie going public pays attention, most don’t.

Don’t take our little slice of the internet as some indication of anything.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

If Disney’s live-action Snow White makes $569,626,289 worldwide (little mermaid numbers), it’s still gonna fall short of breaking even. With a production budget of about $269.4M and marketing costs between $100M-$200M, the total spend is close to $470M. Movies usually need to make about 2.5x their production costs because of theater splits. So, they’d need around $670M+ to break even. If it stops at $569M, they’re looking at a loss of $100M or more. Not a complete disaster, but definitely not the big win they’d be hoping for.

So.. 670 million just to break even and won’t make 1 billion. Small window for success.

The mismanagement of the budget is a whole other issue, if this movie can somehow bring in $600 million I’d consider it a success, even if that ultimately loses money. The fact that half a billion in ticket sales could still be a loss is indicative of management failures, not the quality of the movie.

You’re making the assumption that the majority (or even half) the movie going public pays attention, most don’t.

Don’t take our little slice of the internet as some indication of anything.

That’s why I included my Little Mermaid comparison, its easy to get caught up in our “Disney fan” world so it’s hard to tell what’s actually making noise and what’s only making noise in Disney circles.

In order to drive away half the audience, the majority of the audience would need to be aware of what she’s said. I think you are are way overestimating that awareness. It’s a very small fraction.

Half the “potential” audience, which for a movie like Snow White I’m assuming is primarily Disney fans, who are far more likely than the average Joe to know about the turmoil. Maybe “likely” audience would be a better term.

 

[Farerb]

You’re making the assumption that the majority (or even half) the movie going public pays attention, most don’t.

Don’t take our little slice of the internet as some indication of anything.

I'm not and I don't.
I work with plenty of people who aren't active on social media. When they start talking about something I know it's outside the scope of the internet.
For instance, no one I know is interested in the academy awards and it's basically become relevant only for people who enjoy cinema and talk about it online, but when Will Smith decided to become violent and started hitting people, everyone at my job was talking about it.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm not and I don't.
I work with plenty of people who aren't active on social media. When they start talking about something I know it's outside the scope of the internet.
For instance, no one I know is interested in the academy awards and it's basically become relevant only for people who enjoy cinema and talk about it online, but when Will Smith decided to become violent and started hitting people, everyone at my job was talking about it.

Your anecdote aside, your little slice of the population is also not indicative of the rest of the movie going populous.

One thing to remember is the world is a big place, and very few actively monitor or even less care what most of Hollywood says.

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Again, I’d be surprised if half the potential audience of Snow White even knows the actresses name. She’s not a super big actress.

More I just take issue with ‘half’. I realize the comments are political and the nature of the country is split. That’s where the half is derived from. But that would the require the entire potential audience to be briefed on her controversial statement. People are really not that aware and involvement in these niche forums misleads us into that. We have ample evidence stars don’t really drive movies anymore.

Unaided awareness on Snow White (the whole film) is currently 2%, for example… and they have massive ad campaigns for that.

Agree, people don’t rely on niche sites like WDW Forum for their news. Many likely encountered the controversy over the Snow White film on platforms like Twitter, YouTube, or film-focused websites.

This forum tends to shine when it comes to insider discussions about theme park rumors, designs, and other related topics.

My biggest issue is the budget.
$269.4 million to make Snow White
$150 million for Wicked

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Disney Irish]

Rachel Zegler: hates the original movie,

She doesn’t hate the original movie.

 

[BrianLo]

Guys, I think it’s time to put a lid back on Rachel. Too many people here are too fired up to talk about it without getting upset and it really doesn’t have much to do with the Christmas box office right now. There’s several hundred currently locked posts already on this topic, the conversation is currently played out until release lead up.

 

[The Mom]

Guys, I think it’s time to put a lid back on Rachel. Too many people here are too fired up to talk about it without getting upset and it really doesn’t have much to do with the Christmas box office right now. There’s several hundred currently locked posts already on this topic, the conversation is currently played out until release lead up.

I agree.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Tha Realest]

There was no universe where this was gonna make a billion. Snow White is not that popular and the film has been met with nothing but negative reactions from day one. No, Zegler didn’t hurt the film (though she will be blamed for it anyway), it’s just that very few people wanted this to begin with. It’s gonna bomb, but it was always gonna bomb. Even without all the controversy, it was never gonna be a billion dollar film.

Huh? Virtually all of the live action remakes of Disney animated films cleared a billion. It would’ve been entirely realistic to expect this film to match or exceed that.

 

[Farerb]

Huh? Virtually all of the live action remakes of Disney animated films cleared a billion. It would’ve been entirely realistic to expect this film to match or exceed that.

This isn't true. Only four did. Alice in Wonderland because it pushed the 3D in marketing which was a huge trend back then thanks to Avatar, and Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Lion King because those are literally the most successful films from the '90s who have also had successful Broadway stage musicals that have run for years.

Moana has a potential to gross a billion (though the sequel might have hurt its chances a bit). Tangled and Frozen have that potential too if they ever make those. Snow White never did. Neither will Lilo and Stitch or Hercules or any of their B-tier films from the '70s like Aristocats or Robin Hood.

 

[erasure fan1]

Tangled and Frozen have that potential too if they ever make those. Snow White never did. Neither will Lilo and Stitch

I'd say stitch has a better chance than tangled at a billion. Maybe it's just where I am, but stitch merch is in demand and selling. It seems there's a lot more nostalgia for stitch than tangled. But it wouldn't shock me if went the other direction.

 

[Ghost93]

I'd say stitch has a better chance than tangled at a billion. Maybe it's just where I am, but stitch merch is in demand and selling. It seems there's a lot more nostalgia for stitch than tangled. But it wouldn't shock me if went the other direction.

I think the 20-30 year gap between animated originals and their remakes allows Disney to maximize profit off of nostalgia.

I think a Tangled remake would generate more money in the 2030s than in the 2020s.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

This isn't true. Only four did. Alice in Wonderland because it pushed the 3D in marketing which was a huge trend back then thanks to Avatar, and Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Lion King because those are literally the most successful films from the '90s who have also had successful Broadway stage musicals that have run for years.

Moana has a potential to gross a billion (though the sequel might have hurt its chances a bit). Tangled and Frozen have that potential too if they ever make those. Snow White never did. Neither will Lilo and Stitch or Hercules or any of their B-tier films from the '70s like Aristocats or Robin Hood.

Jungle Book came close at $967 million. Probably the best a Walt-era remake could hope for.

 

[Mr. Sullivan]

Huh? Virtually all of the live action remakes of Disney animated films cleared a billion. It would’ve been entirely realistic to expect this film to match or exceed that.

I’m not sure where you got that from, but the vast majority of them have not crossed or even come close to the billion mark. Now, were they still successes? Yes, absolutely because they were mostly budgeted smartly and received decently. Snow White however is coming at a time when these films are not promised hits but rather hit and miss, and its evident with all the insane discourse here around this one that it’s going to be a financial miss. It’s been nothing but negative since the film was even announced.