That’s what we’re about to find out. Captain America was tracking before the recent comments to open at $95 million (
source). If it stays that way, I’d say the comments had no effect
recent Disney openings have been much stronger:
• Inside Out 2 – $154.2M
• Deadpool & Wolverine – $211.4M
• Moana 2 – $221M (5-day Thanksgiving weekend)
Even within Marvel, this is on the lower end:
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – $118.4M
• Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania – $106.1M
• Thor: Love and Thunder – $144.1M
Cap is already tracking lower than most recent Marvel and Disney films. Given Disney’s strong box office run lately, they might even be lowballing expectations.
With the recent success of Disney and Marvel, plus the advantage of opening on Presidents’ Day weekend, this should at least hit or exceed $95 million.