Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

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DKampy

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
I believe the point is that the Oscars biggest cultural impact is far behind it at this point. And the viewership declines of the past decade-plus is very clear. There was this suggestion that movies would get a noticeable box office bump after winning a statue at the Oscars, as if it was still 1978 or 1998 when it is in fact 2024.

For those of us old enough to remember when the Oscar's was truly Must See TV! and a big annual social event, it seems highly unlikely that movies still get big box office bumps when a lady wins Best Actress or something gets Best Director in 2024.

The times have changed, and they are leaving the Oscars importance back in the 20th century.
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Not comparable at all…The world is very different now…in the 70’s the only way you could see the Oscar nominated films was in theaters…for example once we have this weeks streaming ratings I have a feeling Poor Things is going to pop…I have heard from several people that they finally caught up with Poor Things this weekend
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
DKampy said:
By the way the final numbers are not in yet…I read in Forbes it has now up to 19.8…and is expected to go over 20 once the DVR’s numbers come in
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Okay, let's add in DVR viewers and up it to 20 Million viewers on Sunday night. This is what that changes...

20 Million viewers = 5.97% of the US population of 335 Million

That's a 33% decline in viewers since 2019, and a 56% decline in viewers since 2014.

I adjusted the graph for us based on 20 Million, but the trendline of the past decade is still quite clear.

New Trendline Radically Different.jpg
 
LittleBuford

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Willmark said:
It does.

Accuracy should always be welcomed.
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I don’t mean that. I’m suggesting that the Oscars would be important even if they weren’t broadcast at all, at least for a good number of us. I have zero interest in watching the awards being given out, but I certainly care if a film has earned significant industry recognition.
 
Willmark

Willmark

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
If you look at it from the statistical data, since the USA has grown in population in the last 25 years, it's even worse than the raw data of losing over half the viewers in just the last decade.

Using a few notable ratings highlights of the past 40 years, based on the US population at the time;

2024: 19.5 Million viewers = 6% of the US population of 334 Million
2014: 43.7 Million viewers = 14% of the US population of 318 Million
2004: 43.5 Million viewers = 15% of the US population of 293 Million
1998: 55.2 Million viewers = 20% of the US population of 276 Million
1983: 53.1 Million viewers = 23% of the US population of 234 Million

Trust me, I remember well the blowout Oscars viewing parties of the latter 20th century, into the early 21st century. But that time has long since passed. Last night it was playing on one TV out of three in the bar, and no one was watching. Then when we were seated at the table, none of us mentioned the Oscars. Getting only 6% of the US population to tune in to an allegedly still "Big!" TV show is not impressive. The culture has moved on, and it's no longer 1998.

I can't imagine there will be a noticeable bump for Poor Things because just under 6% of the US population watched the Oscars last night.

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This is especially enlightening.

The telling part is say vs the NFL while the population increases the NFL continues to increase in viewership. Now not always but as was pointing out, even crappy Thursday night games pulling in more than the Oscars?

The Oscars (as you rightly note) were once a universal watching experience that has dramatically dropped, especially relative to population growth.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Willmark said:
This is especially enlightening.

The telling part is say vs the NFL while the population increases the NFL continues to increase in viewership.

The Oscars (as you rightly note) were once a universal watching experience that has dramatically dropped, especially relative to population growth.
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Thank you. And that was my point.

I can blab all I want about the boozy parties I went to on Oscars night in the 20th century and how the kids today just don't get it until I get a similar sized hangover just from posting about it here in 2024.

But when you look at the facts and data behind that huge cultural shift, the point is undeniable. No hangover required.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Well Poor Things got an increase of 150 screens starting this past weekend, Oppenheimer also got an increase too of almost 200 screens.

So we'll see what happens with box office, and if they get an increase again of a few more screens this weekend now that they've both won.
 
Willmark

Willmark

Well-Known Member
TP2000 said:
Thank you. And that was my point.

I can blab all I want about the boozy parties I went to on Oscars night in the 20th century and how the kids today just don't get it until I get a similar sized hangover just from posting about it here in 2024.

But when you look at the facts and data behind that huge cultural shift, the point is undeniable. No hangover required.
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I never personally attended one but can recognize how big the parties were back in the day.

The fact that 1 in 4 people watched it in the late 1970s/early 1980s? That’s comparable but still lower than a Super Bowl NOW.

It’s long since past in cultural relevance and is appealing to less and less people over time.

You’d think that would be a warning sign for Hollywood after 2023 that was not do great outside of the few blockbusters. 2024 might not be much better.

Time will tell.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
TP2000 said:
At least 4 of those views came from my family! One from my sister, two from my nephews/wives, and one from me when my sister sent it to all of us this morning! I loved it. Very cute! Barbie was wonderful.
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You missed the point, or just ignored it.

Viewership of the live broadcast isn't important overall as that isn't how a large majority of the population consumes the Oscars now. Its consumed in small easy to digest videos that only show what the viewer wants to watch. No big party, no having to wait through boring speeches that no one cares about until you get to award you care about. That doesn't mean consumers don't care about the Oscars, they only care about specific awards, and watch those in videos after the broadcast is over.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
You missed the point, or just ignored it.

Viewership of the live broadcast isn't important overall as that isn't how a large majority of the population consumes the Oscars now. Its consumed in small easy to digest videos that only show what the viewer wants to watch. No big party, no having to wait through boring speeches that no one cares about until you get to award you care about. That doesn't mean consumers don't care about the Oscars, they only care about specific awards, and watch those in videos after the broadcast is over.
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How many of the millions of people that watched the Ken musical production number on YouTube have already seen Barbie?

I know at least four of those millions personally, and we all saw Barbie last summer. The video was hysterical, but I won't be rushing out to see Barbie in theaters again this weekend because I laughed at the YouTube video this morning over coffee.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
TP2000 said:
How many of the 3 Million people that watched the Ken musical production number on YouTube have already seen Barbie?

I know at least four of those 3 Million personally, and we all saw Barbie last summer. The video was hysterical, but I won't be rushing out to see Barbie in theaters again this weekend because I laughed at the YouTube video this morning over coffee.
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That number is unknown at this point, and irrelevant as Barbie isn't even in theaters and probably won't be returning. But it may get a bump in streaming numbers, which I'm sure WB cares about.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Chi84 said:
But they were good! You’re the one who was marveling at people watching a “crappy” NFL game!

I know what I’m talking about. We watch the Chicago Bears . . .
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To be fair to @Willmark, the Oscars could be underwhelming. Which is why the party aspect was so important, especially in my community. There would be catty remarks about dresses and hair and dates, while we mostly ignored the show droning on for the first two hours doling out awards for Sound Editing and Best Documentary For Junior High Science Classes or something.

It was only towards the end of the broadcast that we'd start to pay attention for Best Actors/Actresses and Best Picture, but by then the party was so punch drunk that it didn't really matter. It was the event that mattered. You knew it would be a fun night.

Now? Well, the facts and data behind dwindling viewership in a country with an additional 100 Million people tells the story.
 

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