Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

But remember, around these parts there is (was?) the belief that the Oscars were “the second most watched TV event/viewership.”

At the level it’s trending and the continued growth of the NFL and college football it’s likely destined to fall out of the top 100 of the year. Last I saw it was something like 77th.

The trending for the Oscars have increased in viewership the last 3 years

 

[Tha Realest]

The trending for the Oscars have increased in viewership the last 3 years

You mean the year the broadcast was a socially-distanced bizarre masked affair?

 

[Disney Irish]

But remember, around these parts there is (was?) the belief that the Oscars were “the second most watched TV event/viewership.”

At the level it’s trending and the continued growth of the NFL and college football it’s likely destined to fall out of the top 100 of the year. Last I saw it was something like 77th.

And it makes sense why Disney is going all-in on sport content with ESPN, it was something like 96 of the top 100 broadcasts in the US were sports.

 

[TP2000]

I love that we’re now pretending that only people who watched the Oscars know about and are influenced by the results.

No, that's not the point of the data. The point of the rapidly declining viewership data of the past 10 years, after the previous decade of a less severe but noticeable decline, is that the Oscars definitely do not have the pop-culture impact they once did.

And thus, I can't imagine they have the same box office results of "bumps" that they once did.

Again, I remember the Oscars parties of the 20th century. Many were epic. Especially for middle aged gay men like myself; the Oscars was the Super Bowl and July 4th all rolled into one, except with a more stylish dress code for party guests. And everyone talked about the show at work the next day, gay and straight. (But since I worked most of my career in Industrial Supply, it was almost entirely straight except for me and that suspiciously swishy guy in Payroll).

The Oscars is no longer the major pop-culture event in American society it once was. Those of us old enough to remember how important it once was can vouch for that. But if you don't believe me, just look at the hard facts and data...

 

[DKampy]

You mean the year the broadcast was a socially-distanced bizarre masked affair?

Yes…as expected that year was a low point….it jumped quite a bit the year after that…but it also increased last year and again this year….and I expect it to again next year with how fabulous the Oscars were this year

 

[LittleBuford]

No, that's not the point of the data. The point of the rapidly declining viewership data of the past 10 years, after the previous decade of a less severe but noticeable decline, is that the Oscars definitely do not have the pop-culture impact they once did.

And thus, I can't imagine they have the same box office results of "bumps" that they once did.

Again, I remember the Oscars parties of the 20th century. Many were epic. Especially for middle aged gay men like myself; the Oscars was the Super Bowl and July 4th all rolled into one, except with a more stylish dress code for party guests. And everyone talked about the show at work the next day, gay and straight. (But since I worked most of my career in Industrial Supply, it was almost entirely straight except for me and that suspiciously swishy guy in Payroll).

The Oscars is no longer the major pop-culture event in American society it once was. Those of us old enough to remember how important it once was can vouch for that. But if you don't believe me, just look at the hard facts and data...

View attachment 772703

You missed my point. I have never, in my more than 40 years, watched the Oscars, much less attended an Oscars party. That doesn’t mean I don’t pay attention when I hear a film is an Oscar winner, especially if it’s earned multiple awards. I doubt I’m alone in this regard.

 

[TP2000]

The trending for the Oscars have increased in viewership the last 3 years

The trendline of the past decade is clear; the Oscars are crashing into cultural obscurity.

Without the Covid year of '21, and the mild recovery in viewers from that in '22 to '24, the trendline is still very clear. Downward. If anything, the modest increase in viewers this year only gets it to where the trendline from 2014-2020 was already pointing it would be five years later without Covid.

 

[DKampy]

No, that's not the point of the data. The point of the rapidly declining viewership data of the past 10 years, after the previous decade of a less severe but noticeable decline, is that the Oscars definitely do not have the pop-culture impact they once did.

And thus, I can't imagine they have the same box office results of "bumps" that they once did.

Again, I remember the Oscars parties of the 20th century. Many were epic. Especially for middle aged gay men like myself; the Oscars was the Super Bowl and July 4th all rolled into one, except with a more stylish dress code for party guests. And everyone talked about the show at work the next day, gay and straight. (But since I worked most of my career in Industrial Supply, it was almost entirely straight except for me and that suspiciously swishy guy in Payroll).

The Oscars is no longer the major pop-culture event in American society it once was. Those of us old enough to remember how important it once was can vouch for that. But if you don't believe me, just look at the hard facts and data...

View attachment 772703

With you being such a fan of Barbie fan have you checked the 2 Barbie performances on YouTube yet…I’m just Ken was the highlight of the Oscars…and that is saying something with a ceremony being filled with highlights….also Billie Eilish’s performance was very powerful

 

[TP2000]

You missed my point. I have never, in my more than 40 years, watched the Oscars, much less attended an Oscars party.

Oh, no. That's really quite sad. I could tell the younger folks were tuning out the Oscars by the 2000's, but there were still some fabulous viewing parties in the early 00's. It started to change fast in the early 2010's.

Much like the bloated budgets of $200 to $300 Million for tentpoles that lose hundreds of millions for their studios, I do have to wonder how much longer the Oscars can go on with this lavish and wasteful format; the clothes, the 4 hours of primetime network airtime, the fleets of private jets flying in guests and presenters to give a 60 second speech, the millions of dollars spent on the Governor's Ball afterwards, etc., etc.

The TV ratings and viewership no longer support that level of waste and decadence. It's no longer 1998.

 

[Willmark]

The trending for the Oscars have increased in viewership the last 3 years

I dont think this making quite the statement you might think it is.

Hint the NFL and college football is likewise increasing.

 

[TP2000]

Heck even this performance of "I'm just Ken" got 3M views -

At least 4 of those views came from my family! One from my sister, two from my nephews/wives, and one from me when my sister sent it to all of us this morning! I loved it. Very cute! Barbie was wonderful.

 

[TP2000]

With you being such a fan of Barbie fan have you checked the 2 Barbie performances on YouTube yet…I’m just Ken was the highlight of the Oscars…

Oops, we're posting at the same time. See above; that Ken song made the rounds on our family text messages this AM. Fabulous!

That said, we already saw Barbie last summer. Watching that hilarious video isn't going to bump the box office any. At least not from us.

 

[LittleBuford]

Does it really matter how many people watch the Oscars? Are posters here really denying that a film gains in status and visibility after it wins an Academy Award in a major category?

 

[DKampy]

The trendline of the past decade is clear; the Oscars are crashing into cultural obscurity.

Without the Covid year of '21, and the mild recovery in viewers from that in '22 to '24, the trendline is still very clear. Downward. If anything, the modest increase in viewers this year only gets it to where the trendline from 2014-2020 was already pointing it would be five years later without Covid.

View attachment 772711

By the way the final numbers are not in yet…I read in Forbes it has now up to 19.8…and is expected to go over 20 once the DVR’s numbers come in

 

[TP2000]

Does it really matter how many people watch the Oscars? Are posters here really denying that a film gains in status and visibility after it wins an Academy Award in a major category?

I believe the point is that the Oscars biggest cultural impact is far behind it at this point. And the viewership declines of the past decade-plus is very clear. There was this suggestion that movies would get a noticeable box office bump after winning a statue at the Oscars, as if it was still 1978 or 1998 when it is in fact 2024.

For those of us old enough to remember when the Oscar's was truly Must See TV! and a big annual social event, it seems highly unlikely that movies still get big box office bumps when a lady wins Best Actress or something gets Best Director in 2024.

The times have changed, and they are leaving the Oscars importance back in the 20th century.

 

[Willmark]

Does it really matter how many people watch the Oscars?

It does.

Accuracy should always be welcomed.

 

[DKampy]

I believe the point is that the Oscars biggest cultural impact is far behind it at this point. And the viewership declines of the past decade-plus is very clear. There was this suggestion that movies would get a noticeable box office bump after winning a statue at the Oscars, as if it was still 1978 or 1998 when it is in fact 2024.

For those of us old enough to remember when the Oscar's was truly Must See TV! and a big annual social event, it seems highly unlikely that movies still get big box office bumps when a lady wins Best Actress or something gets Best Director in 2024.

The times have changed, and they are leaving the Oscars importance back in the 20th century.

Not comparable at all…The world is very different now…in the 70’s the only way you could see the Oscar nominated films was in theaters…for example once we have this weeks streaming ratings I have a feeling Poor Things is going to pop…I have heard from several people that they finally caught up with Poor Things this weekend

 

[TP2000]

By the way the final numbers are not in yet…I read in Forbes it has now up to 19.8…and is expected to go over 20 once the DVR’s numbers come in

Okay, let's add in DVR viewers and up it to 20 Million viewers on Sunday night. This is what that changes...

20 Million viewers = 5.97% of the US population of 335 Million

That's a 33% decline in viewers since 2019, and a 56% decline in viewers since 2014.

I adjusted the graph for us based on 20 Million, but the trendline of the past decade is still quite clear.

 

[LittleBuford]

It does.

Accuracy should always be welcomed.

I don’t mean that. I’m suggesting that the Oscars would be important even if they weren’t broadcast at all, at least for a good number of us. I have zero interest in watching the awards being given out, but I certainly care if a film has earned significant industry recognition.

 

[Willmark]

If you look at it from the statistical data, since the USA has grown in population in the last 25 years, it's even worse than the raw data of losing over half the viewers in just the last decade.

Using a few notable ratings highlights of the past 40 years, based on the US population at the time;

2024: 19.5 Million viewers = 6% of the US population of 334 Million
2014: 43.7 Million viewers = 14% of the US population of 318 Million
2004: 43.5 Million viewers = 15% of the US population of 293 Million
1998: 55.2 Million viewers = 20% of the US population of 276 Million
1983: 53.1 Million viewers = 23% of the US population of 234 Million

Trust me, I remember well the blowout Oscars viewing parties of the latter 20th century, into the early 21st century. But that time has long since passed. Last night it was playing on one TV out of three in the bar, and no one was watching. Then when we were seated at the table, none of us mentioned the Oscars. Getting only 6% of the US population to tune in to an allegedly still "Big!" TV show is not impressive. The culture has moved on, and it's no longer 1998.

I can't imagine there will be a noticeable bump for Poor Things because just under 6% of the US population watched the Oscars last night.

View attachment 772609

This is especially enlightening.

The telling part is say vs the NFL while the population increases the NFL continues to increase in viewership. Now not always but as was pointing out, even crappy Thursday night games pulling in more than the Oscars?

The Oscars (as you rightly note) were once a universal watching experience that has dramatically dropped, especially relative to population growth.