Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Sucks for The Haunted Mansion that they can't do the media blitz on the nighttime and daytime talk shows.

All the talk shows have all been shut down since early May when the writer's went on strike, so all summer movies have had that issue.

Is that perhaps the new excuse for why Summer '23 box office is so middling? That without exposure on a 3rd rated nighttime talk show like Jimmy Kimmel the movie just couldn't get traction at the box office? There's a few successful summer movies that would disprove that, but it would at least explain why Disney's movies from all of its studios have been mostly box office flops.

 

[Disney Irish]

All the talk shows have all been shut down since early May when the writer's went on strike, so all summer movies have had that issue.

Is that perhaps the new excuse for why Summer '23 box office is so middling? That without exposure on a 3rd rated nighttime talk show like Jimmy Kimmel the movie just couldn't get traction at the box office? There's a few successful summer movies that would disprove that, but it would at least explain why Disney's movies from all of its studios have been mostly box office flops.

Its not just the late night shows like Jimmy, its all the press junkets that are shutdown. So that media blitz that actors/directors do before a films release where they get interviewed for a couple minutes by all sorts of media outlets and film critics over the course of a day or two is not happening. Because despite the trailers average movie goers don't decide to go watch a movie on that alone, its the few second sound bites from the press junkets that get audiences to go to see a particular movie.

 

[BrianLo]

If Mermaid can get bailed out by a pot of cash Disney+ keeps on hand for such things even though it's a division that has lost Billions of dollars in the last few fiscal years, why can't Indy 5 also get bailed out by Disney+?

Who decides when the free money from Disney+ gets handed out?

Somehow, this reminds me of when we'd play Monopoly on family game nights, and my sister and my mom would somehow be in charge of the bank together leaving my dad and I to wonder how they just put two hotels on Park Place and Boardwalk.

Who controls this mysterious pot of free cash money that Disney+ doles out to floundering (get it?) movies?

Indy will also be 'paid'. It just is starting so far in the red that it still won't be enough to get it to the black. Strange World was still paid by D+, as was Lightyear. Despite that they still overall lost money.


Your guess is as good as mine what metric is utilized, but it seems to scale against what they think the movie is actually worth. Probably whatever proprietary info they would have used to sell a movie to Netflix. However they come up with it, it really seems to scale against the box office performances. I pulled out the data we know from Deadline below;

Apparently they have been paying about 50-200 million towards theatrical films. 55 on the low end to Strange World, Lightyear 95, Thor was 160, Wakanda 170, Doctor Strange 180, and Avatar WoW 200 on the high end.

Why is D+ is losing money? It's because they are paying 55 million for stinkers like Strange World that did not meaningfully improve the service and still lost the studio side tons of money. At least it scales so D+ is not propping up literally everything into profitability.

For the record, I would qualify the movies that still cannot make money despite everything the Disney company throws at them 'flops'.

 

[Willmark]

At this point it doesn't matter, they just want to continue to talk about how disappointing the box office is for Disney and how much they will lose.

If I understand correctly the point being made: that in order to have an opinion, one has to see the movie(s) in order to be able to speak about box office performance?

Do I have that right?

 

[Disney Irish]

If I understand correctly the point being made: that in order to have an opinion, one has to see the movie(s) in order to be able to speak about box office performance?

Do I have that right?

Ask the poster who made the original comment.

 

[LittleBuford]

If I understand correctly the point being made: that in order to have an opinion, one has to see the movie(s) in order to be able to speak about box office performance?

Do I have that right?

That’s not how I understand it. I think some of us are just confused as to why people who don’t care about these films seem to be so obsessed with posting about them. As I put it in another thread:

Consider how weird it would be if the threads over in the main boards were dominated by people who had never set foot in any of the attractions, restaurants, or hotels under discussion and who had no intention of ever doing so. Whatever is driving such behaviour, it certainly isn’t benign, nor is it consistent with how this forum used to be even a few short years ago.

 

[Willmark]

That’s not how I understand it. I think some of us are just confused as to why people who don’t care about these films seem to be so obsessed with posting about them. As I put it in another thread:

It is by at least one poster.

In a way, I find it odd the opposite is likewise true: that some want it to succeed regardless of its merits simply “because Disney” (not saying you). Obviously there is an undercurrent of topics related we can’t talk about that go into it.

Speaking purely for myself, I only read these as I have or used to in interest in Lucasfilms properties. TLJ ended that. Now I watch in more of a curious way: acknowledging what is happening and not a part of it and my a fore mentioned observation of Disney as a cultural lightning rod as it were these days.

 

[Willmark]

Ask the poster who made the original comment.

I would but that is a different discussion.

I replied to you because in reading your responses it seemed to be in agreement. If that is not the case than disregard.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m not sure whether he’s seen a particular film has any bearing on his top-line analysis of the overall numbers.

Zero. None.
By this “standard”…if 8 little girls see a movie and they all love it…it’s a “success” losing on a $200 mil budget
What a bunch of dishonest crap

So hows Tommy's second $1 bil coming?

Not good…which means the convo pivots to Hollywood “franchise fatigue”

Not “Disney great!”

I don't think anyone at this point, even me, has claimed that Disney has no issues. But these issues with the box office and budgets, as that is what we're discussing here not other offerings/products, don't happen in a vacuum. The point in saying that other studios are having the same issues with budgets and box office is to show its an industry wide issue and needs systematic fixing, the whole industry is changing (almost overnight) and is something that Disney isn't and can't do alone. The reasons budgets balloon, as was brought up by another poster, is Hollywood chasing the next great tent pole film, and pulling back on the small-to-medium sized movies. And yes Disney has been a "leader" in this front, but not alone.

So if this really was just a Disney problem I'd probably come around and be right there with you. But because its the whole industry having the same issues, that is systematic. How each studio handles that over the next couple years, well we'll just have to wait and see. Because its not going to be something that each studio can change overnight, even though the industry is changing at that pace. So Disney and the other studios are going to have to continue to take their lumps at the box office for at least the near term.

…you know who’s in really big trouble with this? …the “gold standard”?

 

[LittleBuford]

It is by at least one poster.

In a way, I find it odd the opposite is likewise true: that some want it to succeed regardless of its merits simply “because Disney” (not saying you). Obviously there is an undercurrent of topics related we can’t talk about that go into it.

Speaking purely for myself, I only read these as I have or used to in interest in Lucasfilms properties. TLJ ended that. Now I watch in more of a curious way: acknowledging what is happening and not a part of it and my a fore mentioned observation of Disney as a cultural lightning rod as it were these days.

Curiosity I get. I dip into threads out of causal or tangential interest too. But the movie threads are unusual in being dominated by those with no direct experience of the things they’re posting about. That’s not typical of this forum, and it doesn’t make much sense to me.

 

[Ghost93]

Curiosity I get. I dip into threads out of causal or tangential interest too. But the movie threads are unusual in being dominated by those with no direct experience of the things they’re posting about. That’s not typical of this forum, and it doesn’t make much sense to me.

I think a lot of the people you see who are obsessed with celebrating/obsessing over Disney's box office flops are people who used to be Disney fans but have grown to strongly dislike the company for political reasons and are now actively rooting against every single Disney movie that comes out because they want the company to fail for "going woke."

Personally, I think Disney has made its fair share of good movies AND awful movies within the past few years. I want the good movies to do well, but I won't celebrate bad/underwhelming movies like Ant-man 3, Thor: Love and Thunder or Strange World out of blind loyalty to the company.

 

[Phicinfan]

Well then…it’s void and we can now get back to the important stuff:
Like how TLM is only an $85,000,000 (minimum) write down now?

Disney needs to again, yes AGAIN revamp phase 5 errr, 6 errr oh hell whatever phase we are in and get Fantastic 4 right and bring in the friggen Mutants.

Then focus on Avengers vs. X-men and let the money flow. I personally love some of these lesser Marvel characters, but it is clear the box office wants the BIG NAMES(see Spidey) and have them done friggen right.

 

[LittleBuford]

Personally, I think Disney has made its fair share of good movies AND awful movies within the past few years. I want the good movies to do well, but I won't celebrate bad/underwhelming movies like Ant-man 3, Thor: Love and Thunder or Strange World out of blind loyalty to the company.

Indeed. Neither blind loyalty nor kneejerk pessimism is conducive to a productive discussion. (I quite enjoyed Strange World. The most disappointing recent release for me was Lightyear.)

 

[Phicinfan]

I think a lot of the people you see who are obsessed with celebrating/obsessing over Disney's box office flops are people who used to be Disney fans but have grown to strongly dislike the company for political reasons and are now actively rooting against every single Disney movie that comes out because they want the company to fail for "going woke."

I don't think that is a fair assessment. Disney at least as far as Marvel goes is a victim of it's own success. It really did the Avengers correctly with well written origin stories for key members and follow up stories that fed the main story line. Right now, we can't say that cause the payoff IF there is a payoff for all these "time line" movies isn't clear. Where they failed was to go off on tangents trying to sell minor Marvel characters as more major story telling items. We got the Avengers, time to get FF and X-men out and let them play with the Avengers. Then they could afford to have big movie budgets and make big $$$$

As for other movie content, you can't just roll out "live action" repeats of some of your top aminated movies and expect huge $$$ when folks don't go to theaters that much anymore and are being more discerning on how they spend the $$$

Personally, I think Disney has made its fair share of good movies AND awful movies within the past few years. I want the good movies to do well, but I won't celebrate bad/underwhelming movies like Ant-man 3, Thor: Love and Thunder or Strange World out of blind loyalty to the company.

I loved Dial of Destiny, I thought it was well done. However, I don't think Indy v5 will sell big $$$ in this challenged situation, as folks won't go to theaters for just anything, when it comes to their house in 6 months.

Of all the big movies lately - you had Maverick - which lets face it, it took what 20 years to finally make the sequel and it was very well done.

Spidey movies do HUGE cause they are well done, and EVERYONE DC and Marvel fans LOVE Spidey.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Curiosity I get. I dip into threads out of causal or tangential interest too. But the movie threads are unusual in being dominated by those with no direct experience of the things they’re posting about. That’s not typical of this forum, and it doesn’t make much sense to me.

Disney is one of the largest media companies on the planet and generates revenue, profit and stock value by selling to MASS markets

Movies not covering budgets or generating ancillary sales is a failure in their market.

Seeing the movie does not make anyone more qualified to comment on the business…especially when the problem is not enough people seeing it.

That’s it. No flops this year will “change cultures”

You got a cartoon show for pre-K to second grade.

What a “score” for management philosophy.

 

[Willmark]

Curiosity I get. I dip into threads out of causal or tangential interest too. But the movie threads are unusual in being dominated by those with no direct experience of the things they’re posting about. That’s not typical of this forum, and it doesn’t make much sense

Not really, it really does (and I’m saying this in a non-adversarial way and simply answering in a more general sense.)

ETA: removed the “to me” to point out I’m just talking in general.

Disney is not immune to larger cultural forces that are fairly or unfairly affecting them. It’s really just a symptom of the larger world as it were.

 

[LittleBuford]

Seeing the movie does not make anyone more qualified to comment on the business…

I’m not talking about this particular thread, which is indeed about box-office performance, but all the others, which are ostensibly for discussion of the films themselves.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Haunted Mansion would probably do alright if came out in October. Oh well, that's when I'll watch it at home at least

 

[Casper Gutman]

If I understand correctly the point being made: that in order to have an opinion, one has to see the movie(s) in order to be able to speak about box office performance?

Do I have that right?

No, but you should have an understanding of how the film industry works. Most of the inexhaustibly negative posters don’t, and when things are explained to them, they reject it or don’t even acknowledge it, because good faith debate isn’t the goal. They’re just attacking a political opponent, and at least one of these posters is very open and proud about their conviction that those who don’t share their precise political views are unworthy of empathy or understanding. It’s a tactic employed elsewhere on a National scale, to wear down and demoralize resistance through repetition, bad faith, and trolling.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m not talking about this particular thread, which is indeed about box-office performance, but all the others, which are ostensibly for discussion of the films themselves.

Ok…you have a more than fair point there.