Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Analyst]

It's so hard to know or predict what movies will connect with audiences.

Mission Impossible is one of the most consistently good franchises going. If everything were based on my tastes it would probably be the biggest movie of the year.

Maverick was fun but a rehash. Is that what audiences want? The success of things like The Force Awakens suggest yes. It also benefitted from being one of the first big post COVID releases as well as years of pent up demand, compared to the regular releases of M:I.

I can say, my FiL is a HUGE Mission Impossible fan, was absolutely giddy about the new film, got tickets in presale.

I asked him on Saturday how it was, and he surprisingly said "it was incredibly disappointing, not good".

I don't think I've seen a single MI film, so I didn't really press him on it, as I wouldn't know what to ask, but he's generally pretty easy to please with films like this, especially from an IP he loves, and I was surprised to hear him so down about it.

 

[TalkingHead]

Are you saying MI7 is somehow going to end up making well over $800M (its breakeven point)?

Where did I say that? You said this is Cruise’s first flop. Which is wrong on multiple counts.

 

[Jedijax719]

The Mummy 2017 says hello

 

[Disney Irish]

Honestly, I blame the pandemic for it!

This is of course the largest reason for it. But there is more to it than that. The pandemic just accelerated what was already happening. While the overall box office has trended up year-over-year until the pandemic, the number of tickets sold has been trending downward since its high in 2002.

And unfortunately I don't see that changing anytime soon if ever.

 

[Disney Irish]

Where did I say that? You said this is Cruise’s first flop. Which is wrong on multiple counts.

I wasn't really counting Legend as that was at the beginning of his career and was giving Mummy the benefit of the doubt that it ended up breaking even at some point even if not in theaters.

So yes I stand corrected on it not being his "first" flop. But its going to be a flop nonetheless, unless you're challenging that too....

 

[TalkingHead]

It's so hard to know or predict what movies will connect with audiences.

Mission Impossible is one of the most consistently good franchises going. If everything were based on my tastes it would probably be the biggest movie of the year.

Maverick was fun but a rehash. Is that what audiences want? The success of things like The Force Awakens suggest yes. It also benefitted from being one of the first big post COVID releases as well as years of pent up demand, compared to the regular releases of M:I.

Seventh entry in a franchise, titled Part 1, was never going to hit Maverick’s general appeal. But at my 5:30PM IMAX screening yesterday there were three people in the theater. Less than a week after release. That’s alarming.

 

[TalkingHead]

I wasn't really counting Legend as that was at the beginning of his career and was giving Mummy the benefit of the doubt that it ended up breaking even at some point even if not in theaters.

So yes I stand corrected on it not being his "first" flop. But it’s going to be a flop nonetheless, unless you're challenging that too.

I’m not going through his whole career but Jack Reacher(s), Edge of Tomorrow, Oblivion, Last Samurai. He’s had numerous movies that weren’t big hits.

But how could you possibly know if this is a flop yet? Isn’t that like the people who said Mermaid was a flop because it whiffed at the international box office in weekend 1?

 

[TsWade2]

This is of course the largest reason for it. But there is more to it than that. The pandemic just accelerated what was already happening. While the overall box office has trended up year-over-year until the pandemic, the number of tickets sold has been trending downward since its high in 2002.

And unfortunately I don't see that changing anytime soon if ever.

No offense, but sometimes you depressed me.

 

[Phroobar]

Didn't The Mummy do so poorly as to sink the entire planned interconnected Dark Universe franchise?

This is true. It wasn't a terrible movie but it shouldn't have had Cruise in it. Bad casting.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m not going through his whole career but Jack Reacher(s), Edge of Tomorrow, Oblivion, Last Samurai. He’s had numerous movies that weren’t big hits.

Yes he has had many many movies that weren't big hits, but only a couple that could be described as real "flops".

But how could you possibly know if this is a flop yet? Isn’t that like the people who said Mermaid was a flop because it whiffed at the international box office in weekend 1?

Anything is possible, but it has an even higher mountain to climb than TLM did due to its even higher budget. Not to mention that it opened domestically $41M below TLM. So if TLM needed ~$640M to breakeven just at the box office, MI7 needs $200M more than that to break even.

So yeah its looking like a flop.

 

[Disney Irish]

No offense, but sometimes you depressed me.

The world is changing my friend, nothing ever stays the same.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Are you saying MI7 is somehow going to end up making well over $800M (its breakeven point)?

Nope…not gonna cover and go the way of antman, little mermaid, fast and whatever, Indy, et al…

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes he has had many many movies that weren't big hits, but only a couple that could be described as real "flops".


Anything is possible, but it has an even higher mountain to climb than TLM did due to its even higher budget. Not to mention that it opened domestically $41M below TLM. So if TLM needed ~$640M to breakeven just at the box office, MI7 needs $200M more than that to break even.

So yeah its looking like a flop.

Same problem for MI as mermaid and Indy…lackluster domestic opening combined with flop in China…comparatively

 

[Disney Irish]

Same problem for MI as mermaid and Indy…lackluster domestic opening combined with flop in China…comparatively

Don't tell me, we're on the same page.

 

[TalkingHead]

Yes he has had many many movies that weren't big hits, but only a couple that could be described as real "flops".


Anything is possible, but it has an even higher mountain to climb than TLM did due to its even higher budget. Not to mention that it opened domestically $41M below TLM. So if TLM needed ~$640M to breakeven just at the box office, MI7 needs $200M more than that to break even.

So yeah it’s looking like a flop.

It did twice what Mermaid did opening week internationally which is where the series has always made more money. It’s certainly no Indy 5, I’ll give you that.

 

[Disney Irish]

It did twice what Mermaid did opening week internationally which is where the series has always made more money. It’s certainly no Indy 5, I’ll give you that.

Basically MI7 has an Impossible Mission to get over $800M for break even from such a low opening box office.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It did twice what Mermaid did opening week internationally which is where the series has always made more money. It’s certainly no Indy 5, I’ll give you that.

It made $29 in China when the last one made $78

Nah…I don’t think so…not gonna make it either

2023 is a year for the ages…for Hollywood
Double strikes that really can’t be resolved and the “year of the flop” at the box office…billions spent

 

[celluloid]

Which is going to end up being Tommy Boy's first flop. So if that doesn't tell you the state of the industry, then I don't know what will.

Tom Cruise has had flops before. Mission Impossible seven is performing close to the same as previous installments so far.

 

[TP2000]

Cruise hasn’t had a lot of flops…to be fair…but not all his movies are exactly smashes.

I've always thought he was a bit too short for this line of work.

And once he stopped dancing around in his underwear 35 years ago, I lost interest.

 

[Disney Irish]

Tom Cruise has had flops before.

You're late to the party, this has been discussed and acknowledged.

Mission Impossible seven is performing close to the same as previous installments so far.

Issue is its budget, which is over $115M more than Fallout which was the franchises previous highest budget film.