Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

BUT with that much money earned globally, it is definitely going to make a profit eventually. We don’t need to get into all the films that didn’t initially recoup at the box office and then went on to recoup and profit later. That’s just a fact. And Wish is lined up to make more money in the future.

As a total supporter of the power of post theatrical haul… this isn’t really ‘factually’ a given for this movie. At least not yet. It still requires Disney to want to support it.

I guess the take wasn’t strange world levels of bad… and that’s why I said earlier, I’m very curious what exactly was driving such poor attachment to it. Domestically in particular, in its theatrical run. If there is poor interest in it on Disney+, then it is an inherent problem with the film itself. If it succeeds on D+, then it’s a structural problem Disney has created with theatres. One that seems to particularly impact their family animated films.

Disney has had success with some live action films since the pandemic and Disney plus. They haven’t really had any with animated though, Elemental being a sort of bubble case. It’s not for lack of successful films in general: Elemental and Encanto are massively successful for their respective studios, post-theatrically.

I mean, we can’t really have better “sure things” than Moana 2 and Inside Out 2 as canaries for their respective brands. So a lot of good data is still to come this year - about the full theatrical destruction they’ve potentially landed themselves in.

I don’t think the Marvel brand is irrevocably broken though, just needed to be reeled back in. They’ve had various levels of successes still with Marvel. Way of Water makes theatrical live action moot for the company. People will still come for those, if they want to see the movies and they are ‘good’. No one seems to turn up for the Disney animated films though - and I worry that’s a Chapek side effect of devaluing the brand to prop up the early content needs of D+.

 

[TP2000]

How many times do you intend to post essentially the exact same thing? Also, Wish has made over 240 million at the box office and is the fourth highest grossing animated film of 2023, so you can continue your absolutely obnoxious gloating until the cows come home, but this is in no way the absolute failure that you were praying for.

4th Place! We got 4th Place (of animated films in 2023)!

5th Place, yeah that's the loser slot where "absolute failure" kicks in.

But 4th Place with a $200 Million production budget and endless global mega-marketing? That's a win in anyone's book. I think.

It's hard to see what Wish is if not an absolute failure, though. It had every promotional advantage going in to the holiday season, but three months on it's nowhere near profitability, the merchandise isn't moving (which likely compounds the losses), and it was shunned by all the major awards groups. Even some of Disney corporate's recent decisions seem to reflect how badly it performed - ...

Stop with the facts and data and rational assessments about a company you care for, or we'll have to call you a "hater".

BUT with that much money earned globally, it is definitely going to make a profit eventually. We don’t need to get into all the films that didn’t initially recoup at the box office and then went on to recoup and profit later. That’s just a fact. And Wish is lined up to make more money in the future.

With a production budget of $200 Million and an assumed global marketing budget of $100 Million, Wish lost $192 Million at the global box office.

Knowing that, by what revenue mechanism does Wish now make a net profit of at least $192 Million after it has left theaters with minimal pop-culture impact?

Wish: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $38, Overseas B.O. Take $70 = $192 Million Loss

 

[Phroobar]

Kids aren't going to buy/want the toys if they didn't see the movie, and it's not like they can get themselves to the multiplex, so it's weird to blame them for this. As I noted, I'm thinking of parents wanting an easy "special" Easter gift for their kids - they might pick up the DVD because it's a Disney film; perhaps their kids wanted to see it and they were putting it off because of the hassle/expense of going to a theater (and do not have Disney+ so thus can't wait for streaming).

That is pretty specific. I think that is highly unlikely outside of a one off grandma buying the dvd for their grandkids. Wish is old news and kids really don't buy toys based on movie ip anymore.

 

[Phroobar]

4th Place! We got 4th Place (of animated films in 2023)!

5th Place, yeah that's the loser slot where "absolute failure" kicks in.

But 4th Place with a $200 Million production budget and endless global mega-marketing? That's a win in anyone's book. I think.



Stop with the facts and data and rational assessments about a company you care for, or we'll have to call you a "hater".



With a production budget of $200 Million and an assumed global marketing budget of $100 Million, Wish lost $192 Million at the global box office.

Knowing that, by what revenue mechanism does Wish now make a net profit of at least $192 Million after it has left theaters with minimal pop-culture impact?

Wish: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $38, Overseas B.O. Take $70 = $192 Million Loss

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If only it could have barely broken even like Princess and the Frog, it could have had replaced Pinocchio's Daring Journey at Disneyland.
Princess & the Frog: Production$106, Marketing $50, Domestic B.O take $104, Overseas BO take $271 = $63 million profit

 

[Miss Rori]

Thing with Princess and the Frog is that even if it underperformed theatrically, something that was partially on Disney's scheduling choices (I like the Robert Zemeckis Christmas Carol but punting Princess to right before Christmas to space them out probably did the latter a disservice in the end - they should have switched places), people did catch up with it on DVD and all along the merchandise was and is quite successful as part of the Disney Princess brand, and the parks love their princesses, so Tiana's stuck around. Wish doesn't have the backing of the Princess IP to support it, and 15 years on from Princess streaming doesn't mint hits after the fact the way that VHS and later DVD did. Encanto is the only film I can think of offhand, Disney or otherwise, that disappointed theatrically and blew up on streaming to the point that the merchandise sold. So I don't see where Wish's financial redemption is going to come from.

 

[Miss Rori]

That is pretty specific. I think that is highly unlikely outside of a one off grandma buying the dvd for their grandkids. Wish is old news and kids really don't buy toys based on movie ip anymore.

Yeah, but it's the best attempt I can make to figure out why Disney's dragged its feet on getting this to streaming rather than just doing a Christmas Day drop as soon as the first weekend's take came in. On the one hand, yay to longer theatrical windows if that business is going to keep going, on the other hand, once the film didn't become the next Elemental slow burn qualified success, they might as well have cut their losses (especially when it became clear Wonka was going to run and run with the Wish target audience).

 

[LittleBuford]

Encanto is the only film I can think of offhand, Disney or otherwise, that disappointed theatrically and blew up on streaming to the point that the merchandise sold. So I don't see where Wish's financial redemption is going to come from.

From Disney+, as with Encanto. I’m not saying it’s going to happen—I don’t think it is—but I do expect it to do a bit better on streaming than it has at the box office.

 

[Miss Rori]

See, I do think there will be some interest on Disney+ but it's not going to be a financial generator just through streaming. This is a movie that people (well, adults) who don't like it don't just dislike but feel insulted by. Having seen more clips from it now that it is available for digital rental/purchase, I'm more and more amazed that Disney thought people would love it.

 

[erasure fan1]

See, I do think there will be some interest on Disney+ but it's not going to be a financial generator just through streaming.

There's going to be interest for sure. But I agree, I don't see it all of a sudden selling merch or the songs start topping the streaming charts. It could happen, I would just be extremely surprised if it does. Unless Disney decides to sell the broadcast rights, they aren't going to make up near the difference.

 

[TP2000]

Box Office is out for Thursday, which previews how this upcoming 3 day Presidents Day holiday weekend will pan out.

Poor Things is in 12th place, and Turning Red is in 18th place. And Turning Red still has 1,500+ theaters but is only making $24 per theater. Clearly, there was a belief in Emeryville that they were going to need 1,500+ theaters for this re-release concept, when it appears these re-releases were best left on Disney+ for free.

With Turning Red at #18 using 1,560 theaters to get there. Very odd!

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[DKampy]

I have a feeling Box Office results are not the be all end all some want it to be… Yes studios are hoping their films do gangbusters in theaters, but they also have the PVOD format at $20.00 a pop…We do not have the data for that, but I can only assume it is working well for the studios…as they all partake and keep utilizing that format while films are still in theaters

One example I have is I saw The Holdovers over thanksgiving… my theater was packed and the film seem to be doing well with good word of mouth…then the studio cut the film off it’s legs by putting it on PVOD and it was pulled from my theater…so there must be some profit to be had there… cause there has to be a reason because I believe The Holdovers could of made more money in theaters over the holidays especially given what the themes of the film were

 

[Phroobar]

I have a feeling Box Office results are not the be all end all some want it to be… Yes studios are hoping their films do gangbusters in theaters, but they also have the PVOD format at $20.00 a pop…We do not have the data for that, but I can only assume it is working well for the studios…as they all partake and keep utilizing that format while films are still in theaters

One example I have is I saw The Holdovers over thanksgiving… my theater was packed and the film seem to be doing well with good word of mouth…then the studio cut the film off it’s legs by putting it on PVOD and it was pulled from my theater…so there must be some profit to be had there… cause there has to be a reason because I believe The Holdovers could of made more money in theaters over the holidays especially given what the themes of the film were

Then there is FNAF that was released both to theaters and Peacock on the same day. I actually saw it at both the theater and at home. It still made a huge profit.

 

[MrPromey]

No sharks, thanks.

Yeah, time to shake it up.

They should go with snakes instead.

... and give SLJ a cameo.

 

[TsWade2]

BUT with that much money earned globally, it is definitely going to make a profit eventually. We don’t need to get into all the films that didn’t initially recoup at the box office and then went on to recoup and profit later. That’s just a fact. And Wish is lined up to make more money in the future.

Pay no attention to these philistines! They just love to gloat at Disney because they‘re being a bunch of haters and not being true fans. Anyway, I think Moana 2 will be a box office success. I guess WDAS will have to do sequels for awhile.

 

[erasure fan1]

but they also have the PVOD format at $20.00 a pop…We do not have the data for that, but I can only assume it is working well for the studios…

Unfortunately you are right, we can only assume, and that's part of the issue. Box office is still what is focused on most. If studios were more transparent with how the other revenue streams were doing, box office wouldn't need to be the main focus. But I have to believe that if movies were doing great through the other channels, the studios would be bragging about it. They could easily change the narrative, but they don't. If I had to guess, I think box office is still extremely important to studios. They want to make as much cash as possible. I just can't see a scenario where any studio is happy a film didn't profit at the box office. Does every film need to make 100% profit and make over a billion dollars? Absolutely not. But getting squarely into profit so everything after is pure gravy, is I would guess, expected.

 

[Disney Irish]

Unfortunately you are right, we can only assume, and that's part of the issue. Box office is still what is focused on most. If studios were more transparent with how the other revenue streams were doing, box office wouldn't need to be the main focus. But I have to believe that if movies were doing great through the other channels, the studios would be bragging about it. They could easily change the narrative, but they don't. If I had to guess, I think box office is still extremely important to studios. They want to make as much cash as possible. I just can't see a scenario where any studio is happy a film didn't profit at the box office. Does every film need to make 100% profit and make over a billion dollars? Absolutely not. But getting squarely into profit so everything after is pure gravy, is I would guess, expected.

An argument could be made that the reason studios aren’t transparent about other revenue streams post-theatrical is not because they aren’t profitable, but because they are. And that by revealing just how profitable it really would open them up to having to share more of that profit.

There is a reason why SAG was fighting for more transparency in the streaming numbers in the recent strike. It’s so they can have deals structured around larger profit sharing.

The BO is just a distraction. Focus on just the BO numbers, don’t worry about what is happening over here with post-theatrical. It’s why studios can claim they lost money on a movie even if it becomes a hit out of theaters, they never have to provide what is made post-theatrical.

Or another way to look at it, notice how even though 2023 had almost all Disney movies said to have lost money…. Why has none of them been written down, ie reported on as a real financial loss in the quarterlies? It’s because none of them really were, all parties involved were made whole by post-theatrical revenue.

 

[Tha Realest]

Or another way to look at it, notice how even though 2023 had almost all Disney movies said to have lost money…. Why has none of them been written down, ie reported on as a real financial loss in the quarterlies? It’s because none of them really were, all parties involved were made whole by post-theatrical revenue.

They have been reported as financial losses in quarterlies. Since 2022.

 

[DKampy]

Unfortunately you are right, we can only assume, and that's part of the issue. Box office is still what is focused on most. If studios were more transparent with how the other revenue streams were doing, box office wouldn't need to be the main focus. But I have to believe that if movies were doing great through the other channels, the studios would be bragging about it. They could easily change the narrative, but they don't. If I had to guess, I think box office is still extremely important to studios. They want to make as much cash as possible. I just can't see a scenario where any studio is happy a film didn't profit at the box office. Does every film need to make 100% profit and make over a billion dollars? Absolutely not. But getting squarely into profit so everything after is pure gravy, is I would guess, expected.

Yeah… I am not sure what the answers are, but I was wondering if the reason studios don’t brag about it is cause they don’t want to draw attention to the ability to watch movies that are still in theaters at home… as they want to still make as much money in theaters as they can… as I don’t usually even see any promotion most of the time for PVOD… for example I was surprised to see Wonka is available on PVOD already

 

[Disney Irish]

They have been reported as financial losses in quarterlies. Since 2022.

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Where’s the write down? Having an operating loss is not the same as taking a write down. For example they wrote down ~$190M for Lone Ranger back in 2013, but nothing recently. Btw, that was done by Rasulo, just as an aside.

 

[brideck]

Poor Things is going to be outside the Top 10 this weekend, so there's no industry projection for what its take will be that I can see, but it did manage to skip past the pace of The Favourite last weekend, continuing to stretch its advantage day over day. It's remaining domestic success will largely be predicated on how many awards it manages to score in 3 weeks.