Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

As discussed previously, the Hollywood strikers are simply not sympathetic people that the average American feels sorry for.

When you say "Hollywood actors and writers are on strike", that does not conjure up images of hard working factory linemen muscling together your Chevy Silverado or a Ford Mustang, nor does it conjure up images of your friendly local supermarket checkout clerk who always dresses up as a witch when she works the week of Halloween. Those types of strikes, and the actual strikers, are concerning to Americans.

But what it does conjure up images of is ultra-liberal Millionaire actors railing against moderately-liberal Millionaire studio executives. And few people even know what a Hollywood writer does that's vital for human life, much less getting the eggs delivered to your supermarket.
Hint: Hollywood writers are not vital for human life, or daily supermarket food deliveries.

Actors and actresses and writers are Non-Essential Workers.

Americans will only stop going to the theaters when there are no movies they want to see, and if the strike stretches into 2024 (decent possibility for at least the writers), there won't be any impact to movies currently slated for release in 2023.

I guess we'll see in the next couple weeks if it really has an impact or not.

 

[TP2000]

I guess we'll see in the next couple weeks if it really has an impact or not.

Just to be clear....

You are saying that movie attendance may dip the next few weeks because Americans will not want to buy tickets to movies they want to see as a way of "not crossing the picket line" and thus supporting the Hollywood actors now on strike???

 

[Chi84]

I love the arts. A decade ago I took a trip to Detroit just to visit The Motown Museum. It was even better than I'd hoped. And I firmly believe that Motown is some of the finest artistry that has ever come out of American culture. Truly a gift.

But Covid taught me that when the egg and meat cases at my local supermarket are empty, you have to forego frivolities like Motown.

If you asked people who is more important to American society, farmers or actors, I'd bet 99% of people would say farmers.

This has nothing to do with anything but thanks. Yes, if people are starving they will choose food over movies.

 

[Disney Irish]

Just to be clear....

You are saying that movie attendance may dip the next few weeks because Americans will not want to buy tickets to movies they want to see as a way of "not crossing the picket line" and thus supporting the Hollywood actors now on strike???

I don't know if it will or not, that was what I was pondering. You obviously don't think it'll have any impact. As more movies come out and no actors doing press does the public even gain interest in any of the movies. I don't know. That is why I said I guess we'll see in the next couple weeks.

 

[TP2000]

This has nothing to do with anything but thanks. Yes, if people are starving they will choose food over movies.

Sorry, it makes more sense in my brain as I lived in SoCal for 30 years.

In 2004 SoCal had a HUGE grocery strike affecting all the major chains but one (Stater Brothers). I had been shopping at my local Ralph's Fresh Fare for over a decade and I simply could not cross the picket line, and not because I was some big pro-union guy (hardly), but because I knew the clerks and butchers and bagboys at that store and I considered some of them friends and I just couldn't do it. My neighbors were the same way, we just wouldn't cross the picket lines. Not for political labor purposes, but for purposes of humanity and neighborhood friendship.

That scenario played out all over SoCal, as many folks knew and liked their local supermarket employees personally.

That strike changed the SoCal grocery industry drastically. It was the first time I'd ever shopped at my local Trader Joe's (shame on me) as they weren't on strike or unionized. The local Targets and WalMarts responded by rapidly expanding their grocery departments. Etc., etc.

The point is... A supermarket checkout clerk that you know personally and like as a fellow human is much different than a Millionaire actor or actress in Hollywood who wouldn't give you the time of day if you dared to speak to them.

The Hollywood actors don't represent a sympathetic cause to most Americans. Even though they are trained artists with real talent.

 

[Chi84]

Sorry, it makes more sense in my brain as I lived in SoCal for 30 years.

In 2004 SoCal had a HUGE grocery strike affecting all the major chains but one (Stater Brothers). I had been shopping at my local Ralph's Fresh Fare for over a decade and I simply could not cross the picket line, and not because I was some big pro-union guy (hardly), but because I knew the clerks and butchers and bagboys at that store and I considered some of them friends and I just couldn't do it. My neighbors were the same way, we just wouldn't cross the picket lines. Not for political labor purposes, but for purposes of humanity and neighborhood friendship.

That scenario played out all over SoCal, as many folks knew and liked their local supermarket employees personally.

That strike changed the SoCal grocery industry drastically. It was the first time I'd ever shopped at my local Trader Joe's (shame on me) as they weren't on strike or unionized. The local Targets and WalMarts responded by rapidly expanding their grocery departments. Etc., etc.

The point is... A supermarket checkout clerk that you know personally and like as a fellow human is much different than a Millionaire actor or actress in Hollywood who wouldn't give you the time of day if you dared to speak to them.

The Hollywood actors don't represent a sympathetic cause to most Americans. Even though they are trained artists with real talent.

Doesn’t matter. People aren’t thrilled with studio executives and owners either. This is the same as the nonsense with professional sports. People want it finished so they can be entertained.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sorry, it makes more sense in my brain as I lived in SoCal for 30 years.

In 2004 SoCal had a HUGE grocery strike affecting all the major chains but one (Stater Brothers). I had been shopping at my local Ralph's Fresh Fare for over a decade and I simply could not cross the picket line, and not because I was some big pro-union guy (hardly), but because I knew the clerks and butchers and bagboys at that store and I considered some of them friends and I just couldn't do it. My neighbors were the same way, we just wouldn't cross the picket lines. Not for political labor purposes, but for purposes of humanity and neighborhood friendship.

That scenario played out all over SoCal, as many folks knew and liked their local supermarket employees personally.

That strike changed the SoCal grocery industry drastically. It was the first time I'd ever shopped at my local Trader Joe's (shame on me) as they weren't on strike or unionized. The local Targets and WalMarts responded by rapidly expanding their grocery departments. Etc., etc.

The point is... A supermarket checkout clerk that you know personally and like as a fellow human is much different than a Millionaire actor or actress in Hollywood who wouldn't give you the time of day if you dared to speak to them.

The Hollywood actors don't represent a sympathetic cause to most Americans. Even though they are trained artists with real talent.

Yes, but what got me wondering in the first place. If Americans end up seeing the strike week in and week out on the news will they become tired of it all and just say "they are all rich so why should I go to the movies and give them more money" and just not go to movies. That I don't know, but I have a feeling we're about to find out.

 

[TP2000]

Doesn’t matter. People aren’t thrilled with studio executives and owners either. This is the same as the nonsense with professional sports. People want it finished so they can be entertained.

I agree that the scenario is much like pro sports; Multi-Millionaires fighting Multi-Multi-Millionaires.

But the impact is far more drawn out than pro sports. If MLB went on strike tomorrow, there would be games cancelled by tomorrow night. But all the movies that were supposed to come out this summer and fall are all still coming out on time. So no one cares.

You also have to realize that the writers have already been on strike for over two months. All of the scripted weekly/daily shows like The Tonight Show or Saturday Night Live or Jimmy Kimmel Live have all been cancelled and showing reruns since early May.

And has anyone cared? Noticed? Because when I look out my window, America seems to be carrying on without Jimmy Kimmel.

 

[Chi84]

I agree that the scenario is much like pro sports; Multi-Millionaires fighting Multi-Multi-Millionaires.

But the impact is far more drawn out than pro sports. If MLB went on strike tomorrow, there would be games cancelled by tomorrow night. But all the movies that were supposed to come out this summer and fall are all still coming out on time. So no one cares.

You also have to realize that the writers have already been on strike for over two months. All of the scripted weekly/daily shows like The Tonight Show or Saturday Night Live or Jimmy Kimmel Live have all been cancelled and showing reruns since early May.

And has anyone cared? Noticed? Because when I look out my window, America seems to be carrying on without Jimmy Kimmel.

It’s not a matter of carrying on. People other than those satisfied with reality shows will eventually notice. The rest will be content with whatever shows up. It’s really just a matter of preference.

 

[Sharon&Susan]

So I got curious and ran some numbers to see how the studios are doing in terms of getting bang for their buck - that is, how many global box office dollars they are getting back for every dollar they spend for 2023 releases. Sony is having the best year so far with a 4.48 multiplier (I didn't include M:I since it just opened). Universal is also having a good year with 3.54. Disney and Paramount are almost tied with 2.07 and 2.06, respectively. Warners, which is barely a studio, trails the pack with 1.7.

BUT

What's interesting is that this is really the year of Mario and everything else. Without Mario, Universal has a multiplier almost identical to WARNERS. Nintendo is doing all the heavy lifting for a very weak slate. To be fair, this is also true of Disney if they didn't have Guardians.

Sony, on the other hand, would still be ahead of the game even without Spider-verse with a 3.0 multiplier. The key? You guessed it, low budget horror - namely Insidious and The Pope's Exorcist.

The takeaway is that, with the exception of Sony, all the studios are struggling in a very similar way, but Uni has masked this by hitting the jackpot with Mario. No one seems to offer a viable model for the future, unless we want the only theatrical films to be cheap horror (which Disney also produces - see Boogeyman).

Good analysis, curious to see how the standings change by the end of the year. Especially as I get the impression by looking at Disney's schedule that the most successful tentpoles of the year have already been released. I don't know maybe my hunch is wrong about the remaining, from what I can tell, three left.

EDIT: But on the other hand, HM seems to be the only tentpole they have left that has a strong possibility of not even making it's budget back. IMO

 

[MagicHappens1971]

The SAG & WGA strikes are not for people like Meryl Streep or Kevin Feige or Chris Evans to make more money. The major things they’re fighting for are better pay for background actors, regulation for the use of AI, and a new compensation plan in general since the industry has changed so much with streaming.

Strikes are popping up all over the country… times are changing

 

[TP2000]

It’s not a matter of carrying on. People other than those satisfied with reality shows will eventually notice. The rest will be content with whatever shows up. It’s really just a matter of preference.

It would seem to me that if this Hollywood strike does drag on, either one of them, or only the writer's strike...

That's going to just cause people to drop their subscriptions to streaming services who don't have new content to offer in '24.

That starts a doom loop, if you will. If you aren't familiar with what a doom loop is, just Google up San Francisco Doom Loop.

 

[Chi84]

It would seem to me that if this Hollywood strike does drag on, either one of them, or only the writer's strike...

That's going to just cause people to drop their subscriptions to streaming services who don't have new content to offer in '24.

That starts a doom loop, if you will. If you aren't familiar with what a doom loop is, just Google up San Francisco Doom Loop.

I’m familiar.

 

[TP2000]

The SAG & WGA strikes are not for people like Meryl Streep or Kevin Feige or Chris Evans to make more money. The major things they’re fighting for are better pay for background actors, regulation for the use of AI, and a new compensation plan in general since the industry has changed so much with streaming.

I get that, and many others here get that, but the vast majority of Americans don't get that. Hence, little sympathy for the cause and no one really cares about this strike.

If SAG-AFTRA wanted to take my unsolicited advice...

They would IMMEDIATELY stop their President (AKA The Nanny) from making any more public statements, and instead put forth an unknown face who is a struggling actor or actress also working at Starbucks as the person to address the media and deliver official statements on behalf of the union. Then pull all famous faces off the picket lines immediately, so that cameras don't capture wealthy bazillionaire actors and actresses hogging all the attention and branding this strike as a Millionaire vs. Millionaire battle. Make this a story about struggling actors working as waiters and struggling actresses working as caterers just trying to get paid what they are worth for their hard work. Americans would get that.

The messaging here is an uphill battle for them and their case is not sympathetic to most Americans. It also doesn't help that Covid taught us all exactly who is an Essential worker and who is Non-Essential. And Hollywood is Non-Essential.

So far, they've launched it badly by showcasing millionaires and famous faces. Bad move.

 

[MagicHappens1971]

They would IMMEDIATELY stop their President (AKA The Nanny) from making any more public statements, and instead put forth an unknown face who is a struggling actor or actress also working at Starbucks as the person to address the media and deliver official statements on behalf of the union. Then pull all famous faces off the picket lines immediately, so that cameras don't capture wealthy bazillionaire actors and actresses hogging all the attention and branding this strike as a Millionaire vs. Millionaire battle.

I think the problem here is that Fran Drescher gets more media attention than a struggling actor who was in one episode of Orange is the New Black and have them make statements.

I think they could use a combination approach to better deliver this message to Americans.

Make this a story about struggling actors working as waiters and struggling actresses working as caterers just trying to get paid what they are worth.

The messaging here is an uphill battle for them and their case is not sympathetic to most Americans. So far, they've launched it badly by showcasing millionaires and famous faces. Bad move.

 

[TP2000]

Yes, but what got me wondering in the first place. If Americans end up seeing the strike week in and week out on the news will they become tired of it all and just say "they are all rich so why should I go to the movies and give them more money" and just not go to movies. That I don't know, but I have a feeling we're about to find out.

We aren't going to find out anything, because that scenario isn't going to happen.

Americans aren't going to stay away from seeing Barbie next weekend because Susan Sarandon was picketing Netflix this weekend.

That said, Haunted Mansion will still be a huge flop no matter what.

 

[celluloid]

I'm really not sure what your point is. Universal only has had two tentpoles and one was a bit of the miss (Fast X). Mario was wildly successful.

They had two medium films and both were a miss (Renfield and Ruby Gillman).

They have had success with their small films. But 1/4 of their tentpole and medium films isn't some wildly successful streak. 3/7 films if we are including the small budget takes.

Losing a few million is not equal to losing 50 million or 100 million for many movies. My point was Disney does too many tent pole films, so you proved my point why they should not be nearly every film. It makes sense. Bloated and inflated costs for no benefit of quality is the standard with Disney. Even in their parks with new overpriced attractions not moving the needle for the investment they are.

NBC Comcast is not laying off people company wide due to the issue because although lean, its not as dire.

I don't know why we are arbitrarily limited to just look at this year either. Look at Universal's hits last year. Specifically in Animation. Other studios are fasting. Disney is hurting famine.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Losing a few million is not equal to losing 50 million or 100 million for many movies. My point was Disney does too many tent pole films, so you proved my point why they should not be nearly every film. It makes sense. Bloated and inflated costs for no benefit of quality is the standard with Disney. Even in their parks with new overpriced attractions not moving the needle for the investment they are.

NBC Comcast is not laying off people company wide due to the issue because although lean, its not as dire.

I don't know why we are arbitrarily limited to just look at this year either. Look at Universal's hits last year. Specifically in Animation. Other studios are fasting. Disney is hurting famine.

Comcast just went through a significant round of cuts, which included (worryingly given the looming opening of EU) almost all the senior staff at Universal Creative. Most of the studios are cutting people.

You don’t want to look back at 2022 - Disney won the year walking away. Folks are doing you a significant favor by limiting their arguments to 2023.

 

[wtyy21]

Here in the UK, Disney will re-releases some of its animated feature films from August until October, all of these released in road to its 100th anniversary and the release of upcoming film Wish. However, there's a significant advantage for the UK re-release. They will re-release some of Walt-era animated films, not just films from Disney renaissance era like in the US. They also will release these films according to which year the film originally released, ranged from Snow White (1937) to Frozen (2013).

 

[Ghost93]

Wow, the UK has a MUCH better line up. I'd love to see Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs on the big screen.