Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disstevefan1]

I'm your huckleberry. This is real quick and dirty, sourced from weekly snapshots of Wikipedia edits. Y-axis is millions USD.

View attachment 765721

Migration would need at least 4 more weeks of solid returns to overtake Wish given the current trends. Given the lack of releases until Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in 6 weeks, I guess anything's possible, but extrapolating out I'd guess that Wish will end up on top by about $10M-$15M overall. The Trolls line is weird looking because it released everywhere overseas first (reflected in the week 1 total), so virtually all of the growth shown in the chart is from the US release.

Speaking of the gross box office, Wish has made 240 million. Disney gets about half of that so that's about 120 million.

To make and market Wish, it cost TWDC at the low end, about 275 million.

 

[brideck]

I really wish this place weren't full of people stuck on repeat. A request for data was made, and I answered it. End of line.

 

[TP2000]

I'm your huckleberry. This is real quick and dirty, sourced from weekly snapshots of Wikipedia edits. Y-axis is millions USD.

View attachment 765721

Migration would need at least 4 more weeks of solid returns to overtake Wish given the current trends. Given the lack of releases until Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in 6 weeks, I guess anything's possible, but extrapolating out I'd guess that Wish will end up on top by about $10M-$15M overall. The Trolls line is weird looking because it released everywhere overseas first (reflected in the week 1 total), so virtually all of the growth shown in the chart is from the US release.

Or put another way, since Migration had a production budget that was almost one third of the bloated budget for Wish...

Migration needs another $10 Million in global box office to break even.
Wish needs another $384 Million in global box office to break even.

Which movie executive would you rather be right now? A Migration exec waiting two weeks for break even, or a Wish exec telling Bob your movie lost over $175 Million at the box office? Pick one.

Wish: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $38, Overseas B.O. Take $70 = $192 Million Loss
Migration: Production $72, Marketing $35, Domestic B.O. Take $61, Overseas B.O. Take $42 = $5 Million Loss

 

[TP2000]

I really wish this place weren't full of people stuck on repeat. A request for data was made, and I answered it. End of line.

Except, as seen above with that data, there is a huge difference in box office results from a movie that cost $200 Million to make versus a movie that cost $72 Million to make.

Especially when one movie (Wish) was hyped for several years in advance and marketed heavily as the 100th Anniversary Celebration! of a once-beloved American icon, and the other much cheaper movie (Migration) was just a fun throwaway kids movie for Christmas school vacation.

And I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that Migration even had tacky duck poop jokes in it. Right?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Or put another way, since Migration had a production budget that was almost one third of the bloated budget for Wish...

Migration needs another $10 Million in global box office to break even.
Wish needs another $384 Million in global box office to break even.

T r O p H y

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Incidentally Wish actually has grossed more than Migration and Trolls worldwide…I have not seen anyone mention this but Wish has done much better internationally than the USA

You could say the same thing about Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, which has made way more than all 3...but like Wish will still end up losing money.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Migration would need at least 4 more weeks of solid returns to overtake Wish given the current trends. Given the lack of releases until Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in 6 weeks, I guess anything's possible

Migration had a $12 million opening day weekend, but has now grossed over $100 million and is still in the top 5 at the domestic box office. It has played better than expected (again, because they were so low to begin with), and its relatively low budget will ensure it squeaks out a profit.

 

[BuddyThomas]

You could say the same thing about Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, which has made way more than all 3...but like Wish will still end up losing money.

Wish now exists as a movie. It will continue to earn money throughout the years to come, just like every other Disney movie. Its initial box office is not the only money it will ever earn.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s a day ending in “y”

 

[BuddyThomas]

I just want to reiterate how absolutely fantastic Poor Things is. It deserves every nomination that it received. Obviously, Oppenheimer is a lock for Best Picture, but wow, Poor Things is so amazing. Lily Gladstone is expected to win for Best Actress but Emma Stone actually deserves it.

 

[crispy]

Except, as seen above with that data, there is a huge difference in box office results from a movie that cost $200 Million to make versus a movie that cost $72 Million to make.

Especially when one movie (Wish) was hyped for several years in advance and marketed heavily as the 100th Anniversary Celebration! of a once-beloved American icon, and the other much cheaper movie (Migration) was just a fun throwaway kids movie for Christmas school vacation.

And I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that Migration even had tacky duck poop jokes in it. Right?

Agreed. It's not a huge victory that Wish has a better worldwide box office. There is a reason why powerhouse football schools don't tear down the goalposts when they eke out a win against a cupcake team they were supposed to beat...they should beat them because they have the name and the resources to do it. Disney's much touted 100th anniversary movie that costs $200 million should be killing the competition. The fact that it barely surpassed Trolls 3 should be embarrassing, not a reason to celebrate.

Also, Migration still hasn't released in a couple of big international markets. It still has a few weeks to go in the theaters.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Agreed. It's not a huge victory that Wish has a better worldwide box office. There is a reason why powerhouse football schools don't tear down the goalposts when they eke out a win against a cupcake team they were supposed to beat...they should beat them because they have the name and the resources to do it. Disney's much touted 100th anniversary movie that costs $200 million should be killing the competition. The fact that it barely surpassed Trolls 3 should be embarrassing, not a reason to celebrate.

Also, Migration still hasn't released in a couple of big international markets. It still has a few weeks to go in the theaters.

Wish was rejected

There’s all kindsa maneuvering round he’ah that somehow it’s not…it will get better…it will be a “sleeper” or “legacy”
Hit…

But none of that is correct.

The title of the thread is BOX OFFICE. That is the financial success or failure of the releases.

Clear fail here. In a year of clear fails.

They best do better.
Fast.

 

[TP2000]

Also, Migration still hasn't released in a couple of big international markets. It still has a few weeks to go in the theaters.

Oh, really? Well that will be fun to watch in February at least. It should be interesting if Migration actually makes money at the box office and Wish loses 175 Million or so.

And here I thought all we'd have to talk about in February is Turning Red doing $600,000 per weekend.

 

[Advisable Joseph]

Not sure why people still think movies only make money at the box office after the analysis from Deadline I posted earlier.

 

[Advisable Joseph]

Here's a reminder that movies make money on much more than just box office

James Cameron Cuts The Net As King Of The World Wins Deadline’s 2022 Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament: The Data Behind The Dollars

James Cameron is king of the world again for winning Deadline's 2022 Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament with Avatar: The Way of Water.

deadline.com

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

So losses aren't as cataclysmic as they may seem. The 3x rule is right out!

Also, Deadline's figures seem to only include the initial revenue for streaming video, etc. when comparing their results to researchers who looked at the actual finances of films, who saw much a higher total revenue to box office ratio, as discovered in:





I have to imagine lifetime stream revenue from Encanto must be truly massive, considering how much movies can make from streaming up front, apparently.

 

[BrianLo]

I really wish this place weren't full of people stuck on repeat. A request for data was made, and I answered it. End of line.

It’s not really a conversation, it’s just a few posters monologuing over one another. Sometimes they even make up talking points. Arguing with the voices in their heads…

Wish didn’t make money in the box office window, it completely missed the mark domestically. That’s not a discussion, it’s a point of fact. One no one is even debating other than the posters who keep telling us this every 48-72 hours.

Migration and more so Trolls 3 were also theatrical ‘misses’. Buried by significantly underestimated marketing spends. Long falls from their franchise highs or Illuminations’ prior billion dollar franchise starters. May they also benefit from the post theatrical window that people so eagerly don’t want to exist. Which I’m sure they will.

 

[LittleBuford]

The title of the thread is BOX OFFICE. That is the financial success or failure of the releases.

You’d think people in such a thread would find it interesting that Wish is doing appreciably better overseas than domestically. Before you accuse me of saying something I’m not, that doesn’t mean it’s a success overall, or that it’s going to make a profit, or anything like that. But it is a noteworthy development that participants in such a thread should want to ponder and talk about. Instead we get the same points—“It was an unmitigated flop!”; “Its budget was too high!”—repeated again and again, without the slightest acknowledgement of the more complicated picture that’s emerging internationally.

It’s almost as if discussion isn’t what some posters are actually here for.

 

[erasure fan1]

Not sure why people still think movies only make money at the box office after the analysis from Deadline I posted earlier.

I don't think anyone has really said that. We all know movies make money post theatrical. Box office is a tangible number that we we can see and measure against other films. For the most part we know the budgets and marketing spend. We also know the approximate take the studio gets from the box office. There are no good sources to show post theatrical revenue. At least no one here has shown one.

The argument seems to come down to either, you think Disney is ok with their films loosing at the box office, because they're playing "the long game". Or Disney is expecting these huge budget films to make some money at the box office so it's a problem when they don't. Personally I just don't see Disney being ok with movies that are costing $275mil plus, missing the mark as bad as so many have. When you approve a tent pole blockbuster budget, you expect blockbuster tent pole returns in my opinion.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You’d think people in such a thread would find it interesting that Wish is doing appreciably better overseas than domestically. Before you accuse me of saying something I’m not, that doesn’t mean it’s a success overall, or that it’s going to make a profit, or anything like that. But it is a noteworthy development that participants in such a thread should want to ponder and talk about. Instead we get the same points—“It was an unmitigated flop!”; “Its budget was too high!”—repeated again and again, without the slightest acknowledgement of the more complicated picture that’s emerging internationally.

It’s almost as if discussion isn’t what some posters are actually here for.

Discussion is fine

Buts it’s been almost a year of excuses. Really pathetic ones at that.

Whatever wish is “doing”…it’s not doing it anywhere on the scale of “well” by today’s standards. Nor will Disney pay itself to stream it to no one…so that nonsense can go too.

There is a lot of merch in the clearance bins at Walmart…if anyone is into that?

Disney was lauded for things like the lion king and frozen…well deserved. They deserve to be beaten over the head for things like little mermaid, marvels and wish.
Fair is fair…thy Holy company

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't think anyone has really said that. We all know movies make money post theatrical. Box office is a tangible number that we we can see and measure against other films. For the most part we know the budgets and marketing spend. We also know the approximate take the studio gets from the box office. There are no good sources to show post theatrical revenue. At least no one here has shown one.

The argument seems to come down to either, you think Disney is ok with their films loosing at the box office, because they're playing "the long game". Or Disney is expecting these huge budget films to make some money at the box office so it's a problem when they don't. Personally I just don't see Disney being ok with movies that are costing $275mil plus, missing the mark as bad as so many have. When you approve a tent pole blockbuster budget, you expect blockbuster tent pole returns in my opinion.

There’s an easy…almost 1:1 correlation between box office success and longterm revenue potential with movies.

But not everyone has learned that…it’s only been going that way for about 50 years