Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TalkingHead]

Nobody at TWDC cares if Poor Things breaks even. It’s immaterial to anything at this point.

Among other things, they’re satisfied that Emma Stone’s profile as a talent remains high so that if/when she does Cruella 2, it gains added attention and respectability it wouldn’t otherwise have, which will translate to more box office.

 

[TP2000]

In most of those theaters Soul is only playing at 1 time…at least the theaters I checked… and that 1 time is usually in the morning around 10:00AM or so

Oh my God, you're kidding?!

And thus I ask yet again.... What the heck was this messy Pixar re-release strategy? Why? How? For whom?

 

[brideck]

What was my previous math of Poor Things breakeven? Wasn't it always $100 Million globally?

The $100 Million is a global average, although break even might be $10 Million or so less if it skews heavily domestic, as domestic box office gets 60% of the ticket sales in a best case scenario.

Poor Things: Production budget $35 Million + Global Shoestring Marketing of $15 Million, to break even that $50 Million production/marketing cost needs the studio's 50% take of a $100 Million global box office.

The generic formula that I typically see is a lot simpler than any of that -- 2.5x production, which is $87.5M in this case.

We can't really know any of the details, so it's useless to pretend, especially with a smaller movie with multiple producers, etc. I hadn't given much thought to your previous estimates, but thought it had been mathing out to $95M before. Apologies if that wasn't the case.

 

[brideck]

Deadline is reporting Poor Things theater count will jump again this week increasing to 2200 theaters after it’s Oscar Nominations

Who could have possibly foreseen such a thing happening? That's actually a crazy number, though. Way higher than The Favourite ever got to, although a lot of these are also definitely fractional screens.

The only "new" things near me this weekend are expansions of The Zone of Interest, Origin, and the B&W re-release of Godzilla Minus One. There's definitely room in the Top 7 or 8 for one of the freshly nominated films to make a splash.

 

[TP2000]

The generic formula that I typically see is a lot simpler than any of that -- 2.5x production, which is $87.5M in this case.

Yes, that's the quick way. But you can also get a more accurate number when you account for the domestic take at 60% of the box office plus the overseas take at 40% of the box office. It's a more accurate way to get the numbers, especially for films that skew heavily to a domestic box office result like Poor Things likely will do.

In that case, it helps a niche movie like Poor Things make more financial sense. Or at least gets it closer to break even.

We can't really know any of the details, so it's useless to pretend, especially with a smaller movie with multiple producers, etc. I hadn't given much thought to your previous estimates, but thought it had been mathing out to $95M before. Apologies if that wasn't the case.

I hate math, and I famously have a pea-sized brain even on topics that interest me. So it's kind of you to think I'd come up with something as accurate as that.

I'm just impressed I was able to get something as vague as $100 Million, based on a reported $35 Million production budget and a guesstimate that they spent a tiny shoestring budget of only $15 Million on global marketing for Poor Things.

 

[brideck]

Yes, that's the quick way. But you can also get a more accurate number when you account for the domestic take at 60% of the box office plus the overseas take at 40% of the box office. It's a more accurate way to get the numbers, especially for films that skew heavily to a domestic box office result like Poor Things likely will do.

I don't think that last bit is a true statement by the way. It's a European director, based on a European book, made in Europe, featuring a lot of nudity (which Europeans are fine with). I'd expect the overseas take to at least be somewhere in the 50-60% range of the WW, unless it really unexpectedly takes off here over the next month. It's only been out in Europe for 1-2 weeks depending on the country (with more still to come) and already sits at 40% of WW.

 

[DKampy]

Who could have possibly foreseen such a thing happening? That's actually a crazy number, though. Way higher than The Favourite ever got to, although a lot of these are also definitely fractional screens.

The only "new" things near me this weekend are expansions of The Zone of Interest, Origin, and the B&W re-release of Godzilla Minus One. There's definitely room in the Top 7 or 8 for one of the freshly nominated films to make a splash.

Nothing new at my local theater except rereleases…Killers of the Flower Moon, Godzilla minus 1, Oppenheimer, The Boy and the Heron… I am still hoping Zone of Interest expands here as I am one of those who likes to watch every best picture nominees… I suppose at worst my local theater usually does one of those Academy Awards festivals the last couple of weekends before the Oscar’s

 

[brideck]

I am still hoping Zone of Interest expands here as I am one of those who likes to watch every best picture nominees… I suppose at worst my local theater usually does one of those Academy Awards festivals the last couple of weekends before the Oscar’s

I'm surprised it's not. It's at 2 AMCs, 2 art theaters, and another multi-plex near me.

It'll be interesting to see if all of the shortlisted (but now not actually nominated) foreign films we've been getting previews for will actually come out here now. The French submission (which I've seen the preview for way too many times now) just got pushed back 3 weeks at our biggest art theater. Oscar nominations really can make or break these fringey releases.

 

[DKampy]

I'm surprised it's not. It's at 2 AMCs, 2 art theaters, and another multi-plex near me.

It'll be interesting to see if all of the shortlisted (but now not actually nominated) foreign films we've been getting previews for will actually come out here now. The French submission (which I've seen the preview for way too many times now) just got pushed back 3 weeks at our biggest art theater. Oscar nominations really can make or break these fringey releases.

our local theaters around here are mostly Marcus( based out of Milwaukee)… I have not checked other theaters as the next closest theater is about 40 minutes away as oppose to 15 minutes away… we use to have 2 theaters about 10 minutes apart which was nice since they were owned by the same company and seem to split movies between them… so we would get a lot of smaller movies early in their release split between the 2 theaters…the one slower theater closed… I am now wondering if we are going to get less smaller independent films… our theater usually screens any film that expands to 600 or over screens these days

 

[brideck]

our local theaters around here are mostly Marcus( based out of Milwaukee)… I have not checked other theaters as the next closest theater is about 40 minutes away as oppose to 15 minutes away… we use to have 2 theaters about 10 minutes apart which was nice since they were owned by the same company and seem to split movies between them… so we would get a lot of smaller movies early in their release split between the 2 theaters…the one slower theater closed… I am now wondering if we are going to get less smaller independent films… our theater usually screens any film that expands to 600 or over screens these days

Ah, Milwaukee... I actually saw Elemental at the Avalon when I was out there for about a week last summer. Fun little theater.

I have to believe that the AMC Mayfair Mall will show it, but they apparently haven't figured out how to respond to Oscar nominations with a new schedule for this weekend yet.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Razzie Noms 2024: Chris Evans and Jennifer Lopez Up for Worst Actors; ‘Shazam 2’ and ‘Ant-Man 3’ Tie With 4 Nods

The 2024 Razzie nominations 'honored' Chris Evans, Jennifer Lopez, 'Ant-Man 3' and more.

variety.com

 

[DKampy]

Ah, Milwaukee... I actually saw Elemental at the Avalon when I was out there for about a week last summer. Fun little theater.

I have to believe that the AMC Mayfair Mall will show it, but they apparently haven't figured out how to respond to Oscar nominations with a new schedule for this weekend yet.

I would also guess The Zone of Interest will screen at AMC Mayfair… they do tend to get a decent amount of foreign films too, but that theater is about an hour away so I don’t know if I will get out there

About 20 years ago My brother attended The University Of Wisconsin Milwaukee as part of the film program… he had dreams of becoming a film director at the time… I would sometimes drive down and take him to this great film palace called The Oriental… they use to show a ton of independent movies even if it was for 1 night only… I don’t know if they operate the same… I have not been in years…as I just checked their website and Mean Girls was playing there… they use to not be the theater to go to if you expected to watch a wide release

 

[DKampy]

I did a deeper dive on Milwaukee’s The Oriental… It appears it still caters to the independent… and Arthouse films it always did…I was just surprised to see Mean Girls there… since in the past I would rarely see more mainstream movies playing there… Poor Things and American Fiction was also playing there but those fit into the spirit of the theater… I should of known… as I did know the Milwaukee film festival always includes that theater

I use to like that theater for it’s history… despite the debates that happen occasionally over rather or not the name is racist… I don’t think it is as it is referring to a place and not people

 

[brideck]

So this is definitely curious. I just got a promotional e-mail from Walt Disney Pictures telling me to go see Soul in theaters nationwide. The link takes me to Fandango showtimes that start on Fri, Feb 23, and it is indeed back in my local theaters again starting on that date. The current run is gone as of tomorrow. Trying to actually build awareness and try again? The run in February appears to be at the $5 price point -- not at the matinee price point.

 

[DKampy]

So this is definitely curious. I just got a promotional e-mail from Walt Disney Pictures telling me to go see Soul in theaters nationwide. The link takes me to Fandango showtimes that start on Fri, Feb 23, and it is indeed back in my local theaters again starting on that date. The current run is gone as of tomorrow. Trying to actually build awareness and try again? The run in February appears to be at the $5 price point -- not at the matinee price point.

That is curious… I can’t find Soul playing at my market at all anywhere now or Feb 23

 

[Disstevefan1]

That is curious… I can’t find Soul playing at my market at all anywhere now or Feb 23

Since Soul is playing to empty theaters the theaters probably stopped showing it.

 

[Phroobar]

Since Soul is playing to empty theaters the theaters probably stopped showing it.

I bet Cowboy Beebop made more money on re-release than Soul did.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I bet Cowboy Beebop made more money on re-release than Soul did.

Do you win points if it does?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

To the point about moviegoers sucking:

I went to see Wonka again last night, spur of the moment thing. 9pm showing, only 2 seats booked when I booked. I went solo.

When I sat, there were 2 women 2 seats away from me, cackling and talking loudly. After 2 minutes of that, I broke the rules(!) and moved my seat to somewhere I remembered being empty on the seat chart. A bunch of kids took up the back row. Fifteen minutes into the movie, a couple came with a blanket and what not and sat at the other end of my adopted row.

The only person not talking in the theater was me.

I almost left, but I just focused on getting lost in the movie as much as I could.

I hope each one of them tripped and fell on the way home. People. Ugh.

 

[brideck]

Poor Things is being predicted at $2.7M again this upcoming weekend, which would be good for 7th. [It was actually the #5 movie on Wednesday, but Migration, being family fare, will surpass it over the weekend.] With the increased screen count, will it manage it this time? The comp chart would look like this after the weekend, if so:

If it were to simply ride out the same trajectory as its predecessor from there, it would end up around $32.5M domestically.