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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Now if they can trade these in for revenue they might break even!!!

Oh wait I forgot…

Nobody cares.

Poor Things needs each of its 11 nominations to be worth about $6 Million in upcoming box office per nomination, or else it won't break even at the box office.

As of yesterday, Poor Things has about $34 Million in global box office, which is about $65 Million short of breaking even with its $35 Million production budget and a guesstimate of a shoestring global marketing budget of only $15 Million.
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
TSG was one of the production companies.

TSG was the financing partner for 20th Century Fox, which Disney took over and by extension the partnership. You'll notice outside of a few Sony movies, all of TSG productions are for 20th Century/Searchlight. So yes its a Disney movie as its co-produced by TSG.
My friend’s, cousin’s, girlfriend’s mom….
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
TSG was one of the production companies.

TSG was the financing partner for 20th Century Fox, which Disney took over and by extension the partnership. You'll notice outside of a few Sony movies, all of TSG productions are for 20th Century/Searchlight. So yes its a Disney movie as its co-produced by TSG.

Searchlight itself was also among the production companies, according to some sources, although we'd probably have to study the end credits in some detail to figure out how true that is. Regardless, in the world of indie films, the distributor is the brand most associated with the movie and is the one responsible for promotion and negotiating screen counts and all that good stuff. Production companies, like Element Pictures in this case (who consistently make great stuff), are a little more inside baseball. You really have to be paying attention to know who produced what. The presence of TSG does indicate that Disney put some non-zero amount into the $35 million.

From my reading, distributors typically get a % of the gross, not of the profits. So in this case, the statement about Poor Things needing to make ~$87 million (2.5x budget) in order for Disney to see any profit is most likely incorrect, but it would depend on how much they paid Element, etc. for the Lanthimos deal that they have in place -- Searchlight did The Favourite, Poor Things, and the upcoming Kinds of Kindness -- and how much they spent on marketing. Hitting $87 million would only serve to absolutely ensure that a profit was made.
 

Trauma

Well-Known Member
Poor Things needs each of its 11 nominations to be worth about $6 Million in upcoming box office per nomination, or else it won't break even at the box office.

As of yesterday, Poor Things has about $34 Million in global box office, which is about $65 Million short of breaking even with its $35 Million production budget and a guesstimate of a shoestring global marketing budget of only $15 Million.
I don’t even know what Poor Things is but considering how many times it was nominated it has be a film with some whiny actress delivering “the message.”
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
All of Us Strangers and The Iron Claw didn’t seem to mount much of an Oscar campaign, not sure why. Both were extremely worthy of awards consideration. Same for Saltburn and The Color Purple. They may have thought that Saltburn was just too sick. It is, but it’s still brilliant. They may have thought that they already had The Color Purple party in the 80’s. They did, but this new musical production was also brilliant. Haven’t seen May December yet. Wonka should have gotten a couple of noms.

My understanding from reading around over the past couple weeks is that this is more or less a bandwidth problem with smaller distributors. A24 pushed for Past Lives and The Zone of Interest, but it came at The Iron Claw's expense. Likewise Searchlight and Poor Things, etc. Netflix apparently has the ability to push any and everything.

ETA: This is especially a shame for films like All of Us Strangers. It just got a nice little expansion last weekend, kept a pretty good per-screen average, but is going to be mercilessly cut down anyway to make room for Oscar-nominated movies. It's down from 17 to 4 screenings in my AMCs this coming weekend, and The Iron Claw is down to just 1. Meanwhile, Poor Things keeps 11, American Fiction is at 20, and a bunch of movies are back on screens at a $5 price point. They'll all be allowed to run for a number of weeks now. The power of the Oscars.
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
Searchlight itself was also among the production companies, according to some sources, although we'd probably have to study the end credits in some detail to figure out how true that is. Regardless, in the world of indie films, the distributor is the brand most associated with the movie and is the one responsible for promotion and negotiating screen counts and all that good stuff. Production companies, like Element Pictures in this case (who consistently make great stuff), are a little more inside baseball. You really have to be paying attention to know who produced what. The presence of TSG does indicate that Disney put some non-zero amount into the $35 million.

From my reading, distributors typically get a % of the gross, not of the profits. So in this case, the statement about Poor Things needing to make ~$87 million (2.5x budget) in order for Disney to see any profit is most likely incorrect, but it would depend on how much they paid Element, etc. for the Lanthimos deal that they have in place -- Searchlight did The Favourite, Poor Things, and the upcoming Kinds of Kindness -- and how much they spent on marketing. Hitting $87 million would only serve to absolutely ensure that a profit was made.

I agree, the ~$87M is just what would it would take to make everyone involved whole, not the figure before Disney sees $1. The same can be said for many Disney films, as Disney doesn't always self-finance or solely finance their films.

But that's too complex for the "Everything Disney releases loses money" crowd.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
How did Disney-acquired Magazine Dreams do in terms of nominations?

I almost posted about Magazine Dreams last week. Searchlight returned the distribution rights to the filmmakers about a week ago. Given the circumstances around Jonathan Majors, I don't know if they were able to back out without penalty, or if Disney ended up losing anything in the deal.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Deadline is reporting Poor Things theater count will jump again this week increasing to 2200 theaters after it’s Oscar Nominations

Good news. Soul needs to be yanked from at least 1,000 theaters, and they can give them to Poor Things.

In order to break even at the box office, Poor Things needs an additional $65 Million in box office receipts ASAP.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
Good news. Soul needs to be yanked from at least 1,000 theaters, and they can give them to Poor Things.

In order to break even at the box office, Poor Things needs an additional $65 Million in box office receipts ASAP.

Where ASAP equals over the next 2 to 3 months of its Oscar-fueled legs. And it doesn't need that much... I'm not sure why your math has slid to it needing $100M total now.
 
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TP2000

Well-Known Member
Where ASAP equals over the next 2 to 3 months of its Oscar-earned legs. And it doesn't need that much... I'm not sure why your math has slid to it needing $100M total now.

What was my previous math of Poor Things breakeven? Wasn't it always $100 Million globally?

The $100 Million is a global average, although break even might be $10 Million or so less if it skews heavily domestic, as domestic box office gets 60% of the ticket sales in a best case scenario.

Poor Things: Production budget $35 Million + Global Shoestring Marketing of $15 Million, to break even that $50 Million production/marketing cost needs the studio's 50% take of a $100 Million global box office.
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Good news. Soul needs to be yanked from at least 1,000 theaters, and they can give them to Poor Things.
In most of those theaters Soul is only playing at 1 time…at least the theaters I checked… and that 1 time is usually in the morning around 10:00AM or so
 

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