Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[celluloid]

Does not sound like someone who is open to opposing views

saying the brand is not damaged is not an opposing view. It is a denial of fact.

Everything that comes out of a company either enhances or diminishes the brand. The entire year had a string of failures that has shown damaged brand and further hurt it. The company admits to a damaged brand and there are industry respected reports that show the brand trust is down.

Yes, if you deny this after that, you are not exactly reasonable, and if you call others who point this out and refer to them as trolls, you are delusional.

 

[brideck]

Does not sound like someone who is open to opposing views

Oh you mean the individual who stated the huge award contender that has not gone wide yet has already bombed… which he did not even know existed until he posted about it cause he does not like movies…

And couldn't read the screen count or per screen average on the very screenshot he breathlessly posted? No, not him!

Disney was lucky to land the next two Lanthimos movies for Searchlight after the massive success of The Favourite.

 

[celluloid]

And couldn't read the screen count or per screen average on the very screenshot he breathlessly posted? No, not him!

Disney was lucky to land the next two Lanthimos movies for Searchlight after the massive success of The Favourite.

At the end of the day, I think if we are counting on searchlight to somehow be a big hit for Disney, it paints how dire things are.

Searchlight did not have any other big hits this year, while not impossible, it could be quite against the trend for this one to rock and take off.

 

[brideck]

At the end of the day, I think if we are counting on searchlight to somehow be a big hit for Disney, it paints how dire things are.

Searchlight did not have any other big hits this year, while not impossible, it could be quite against the trend for this one to rock and take off.

Who's counting on Searchlight to release big financial hits? They're there to put out 3-4 movies a year and win awards/nominations. The Favourite was an exception ($100 million worldwide on a $15 million budget), but I wouldn't be surprised to see Poor Things do similar numbers as it legs all the way through awards season. The Favourite never made it above #11 in the weekly box office, and Poor Things has already cracked the Top 10 without even really releasing yet.

 

[celluloid]

Who's counting on Searchlight to produce big financial hits? They're there to put out 3-4 movies a year and win awards/nominations. The Favourite was an exception ($100 million worldwide on a $15 million budget), but I wouldn't be surprised to see Poor Things do similar numbers as it legs all the way through awards season. The Favourite never made it above #11 in the weekly box office, and Poor Things has already cracked the Top 10 without even really releasing yet.

The trend for Searchlight under Disney is what I was referencing.
Well a company still wants them to profit., and lately, they have not under Disney, that has been the point.

Next Goal wins was a recent failure example.

 

[brideck]

The trend for Searchlight under Disney is what I was referencing.
Well a company still wants them to profit., and lately, they have not under Disney, that has been the point.

Next Goal wins was a recent failure example.

What trend? 80% of movies lose money, and that's especially true on the indie scene. Disney would not be expecting all of these movies to make a profit, just enough of them to keep the endeavor afloat. And looking at the recent past I see things like The Favourite, Nomadland, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Menu, all of which would have made plenty of money for the company to support the business, as well as rack up a bunch of awards wins in many cases.

It's only when you take "big" budget swings that miss, like A24's Beau is Afraid, that things begin to get dicey. Poor Things is indeed one of those swings, but I don't think it'll miss.

 

[celluloid]

What trend? 80% of movies lose money, and that's especially true on the indie scene. Disney would not be expecting all of these movies to make a profit, just enough of them to keep the endeavor afloat. And looking at the recent past I see things like The Favourite, Nomadland, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Menu, all of which would have made plenty of money for the company to support the business, as well as rack up a bunch of awards wins in many cases.

It's only when you take "big" budget swings that miss, like A24's Beau is Afraid, that things begin to get dicey. Poor Things is indeed one of those swings, but I don't think it'll miss.

Yeah, many films lose money so you can get finances from the ones that do.

But when more than 80 percent of your films lose A LOT of money, you have a bad trend, if you are primarily in the movie business.

It goes for the indie scene too. Multiple indie flops from the Disney Company that hurt the big picture even more.

The Holdovers for example for a successful indie film that Disney has not done, is a good example of a film that is going to get nominated and has also been a big hit.

Do you think Poor Things will reach its budget mark of 35 million domestically? Asteroid City did. Do you think it will double its production budget like The Holdovers did? I think it shows the trend of Focus Feature's recognition vs Searchlight for the avant-garde.

 

[brideck]

Yeah, many films lose money so you can get finances from the ones that do.

But when more than 80 percent of your films lose A LOT of money, you have a bad trend, if you are primarily in the movie business.

It goes for the indie scene too. Multiple indie flops from the Disney Company that hurt the big picture even more.

The Holdovers for example, is a good example of a film that is going to get nominated and has also been a big hit.

Focus paid $30 million just for the privilege of releasing The Holdovers. It's made $18 million at the box office so far. Tell me how that's a big hit.

Next Goal Wins only had a budget of $14 million. Tell me how that movie lost a LOT of money. It didn't even cost a LOT of money.

 

[celluloid]

Focus paid $30 million just for the privilege of releasing The Holdovers. It's made $18 million at the box office so far. Tell me how that's a big hit.

Next Goal Wins only had a budget of $14 million. Tell me how that movie lost a LOT of money. It didn't even cost a LOT of money.

Yes, if you want to toss in distributions payments now. I thought we were speaking only against the production budget.
If you want to toss that kind of thing in, let's just say Disney loses completely because they are the only studio that had to pay a company 9 billion this year.

This is the simple truth:

The studio that produced Mario, Oppenheimer, Five Nights at Freddy's, Cocaine Bear, M3Gan, that ultimately even with their ebb and flow had one of their best years of box office revenue in existence, can afford avant-garde.

Disney can't play in that and losing another few million is a much bigger deal, so hopefully for them, searchlight does get close to their 35 million for Poor Things.

Disney lost a LOT of money on all of their other big swings this year and tentpole fails, that is why they can't afford to lose a few million here and there on others.

 

[brideck]

Yes, if you want to toss in distributions payments now. I thought we were speaking only against the production budget.

Considering Focus didn't produce The Holdovers, I don't know what other number would make sense to look at.

Do you think Poor Things will reach its budget mark of 35 million domestically? Asteroid City did. Do you think it will double its production budget like The Holdovers did? I think it shows the trend of Focus Feature's recognition vs Searchlight for the avant-garde.

Somewhere around there, yes. And it should do well overseas, too.

I struggle to believe that you just called Alexander Payne avant-garde in comparison to Yorgos Lanthimos. Having said that, as someone who actually watches a lot of indie movies, I tend to think of Focus and Searchlight in more or less the same breath. They're both indie arms of larger companies, and they both tend to put out stuff with broader appeal than the A24s and Neons of the world.

 

[celluloid]

Considering Focus didn't produce The Holdovers, I don't know what other number would make sense to look at.



Somewhere around there, yes. And it should do well overseas, too.

I struggle to believe that you just called Alexander Payne avant-garde in comparison to Yorgos Lanthimos.

They both are experimental film makers. Very different, but I stand by the term. Fringe at best. Yeah, they are in the same breathe, but searchlight is not making Disney enough at the box office to matter, award recognition for this film is not going to save their current major challenges in restructuring studio. That was the point.

 

[brideck]

searchlight is not making Disney enough at the box office to matter, award recognition for this film is not going to save their current major challenges in restructuring studio. That was the point.

Nobody, and I repeat, nobody ever said otherwise.

My original post here was about Poor Things in isolation and to point out that we needn't breathlessly discuss things that are posted by people who a) can't bother to read/understand them first and b) don't understand the provenance of the film under discussion and why it might be worth $35 million.

 

[celluloid]

Nobody, and I repeat, nobody ever said otherwise.

My original post here was about Poor Things in isolation and to point out that we needn't breathlessly discuss things that are posted by people who a) can't bother to read/understand them first and b) don't understand the provenance of the film under discussion and why it might be worth $35 million.

And my point was to move away from award season bait film discussion that don't tend to make money for struggling studios(Which is fun I get it) but this is a box office thread. So pertaining to it not saving the companies billions of dollars level loss challenges is relevant here. Whereas whatever isolated subject you keep bringing up about Indie films does not.

 

[Disney Irish]

Searchlight is only there to produce award plays, that its. If those movies make money its just a benefit, but not the goal.

 

[brideck]

And my point was to move away from award season bait film discussion that don't tend to make money for struggling studios(Which is fun I get it) but this is a box office thread. So pertaining to it not saving the companies billions of dollars level loss challenges is relevant here. Whereas whatever isolated subject you keep bringing up about Indie films does not.

What on earth are you talking about? If someone wants to gleefully spread misinformation about how a $35 million movie has bombed on this thread, I'm well within my rights to call it out and tell that person to maybe read the numbers on their own graphic next time. It doesn't even require any movie knowledge to do so, I swear.

If you'd rather that financially insignificant movies weren't discussed on this thread, perhaps you should say that to the person who brought it into the discussion in the first place.

 

[Disney Irish]

2024 is starting to being predicted to be lower than 2023..... So much for that post-pandemic upward trend....

Disney, Warner Bros. among those to feel 'direct consequence' of Hollywood strikes

Global box office sales are set to tumble next year, and it’s not because we don’t love the movie theater experience. Chalk this one up to the Hollywood strikes

seekingalpha.com

"Global box office sales are likely to tumble next year, and it’s not because consumers don’t love the movie theater experience. Chalk this one up to the Hollywood strikes."

"For 2024, the North American market is anticipated to finish 11% down from 2023 at about $8B, a 30% drop against the 2017 to 2019 average."

 

[brideck]

2024 is starting to being predicted to be lower than 2023..... So much for that post-pandemic upward trend....

"Global box office sales are likely to tumble next year, and it’s not because consumers don’t love the movie theater experience. Chalk this one up to the Hollywood strikes."

"For 2024, the North American market is anticipated to finish 11% down from 2023 at about $8B, a 30% drop against the 2017 to 2019 average."

Is that because of a lack of major tentpoles on the schedule, or ?? I have to say, looking at the release schedule, it's hard to predict what might come out on top for 2024 -- Joker 2? Despicable Me 4? Inside Out 2? Deadpool 3? Otherwise, unless I'm missing something, the other established IP releases are sequels/spinoffs of things that have only done $100-$150 million domestically in the past.

 

[Disney Irish]

Is that because of a lack of major tentpoles on the schedule, or ?? I have to say, looking at the release schedule, it's hard to say what might come out on top for 2024 -- Joker 2? Despicable Me 4? Inside Out 2? Deadpool 3? Otherwise, unless I'm missing something, the established IP releases are sequels/spinoffs of things that have only done $100-$150 million domestically in the past.

Its because the 6 month delay due to the strikes caused studios to push off many films into late 2024 or into 2025 and beyond. So you're left with a release schedule that is much sparser than before.

Now this of course could change as studios continue to adjust the release schedule, as they always do. But right now the box office is looking to be off even more than it already was. And I suspect this is only going to drive more consumers into streaming, leading more studios to make a decision about release strategies longer term.

 

[celluloid]

Its because the 6 month delay due to the strikes caused studios to push off many films into late 2024 or into 2025 and beyond. So you're left with a release schedule that is much sparser than before.

Now this of course could change as studios continue to adjust the release schedule, as they always do. But right now the box office is looking to be off even more than it already was. And I suspect this is only going to drive more consumers into streaming, leading more studios to make a decision about release strategies longer term.

A six month writer's and SAG strike result year is a little silly to think it could easily match ya know? In fact, ratio of what is out, shows people are willing to turn up to theaters more.

The fact is, some studios will still be happy to soak up on the market and profit off of films audience are happy to receive and pay for.
Tent Poles that were delayed...yeah, it will take a chunk out of the total, but it does not mean all studios fail.

What you are going to likely see is fewer movies that hang around longer. You can see this is in how Hunger Games has stayed hanging on making far more than anyone ever thought the spin off would. You can see it in foreign films doing very well and their runs extending.

You basically see a return to how it used to be more than how major streaming investors want it to be.
Ratio new theatrical release to patronage will likely show quite well.

 

[celluloid]

If you'd rather that financially insignificant movies weren't discussed on this thread, perhaps you should say that to the person who brought it into the discussion in the first place.

I think that was ultimately the orignal person's point. It either came out already and made money, or it won't make the studio money even if it gets the accolades of award season. The person was mistaken, and it was pointed out a lot. I think the ultimate point still stands, and you can gleefully within your rights yourself, but trying to steer you back to topic while you have fun with that dead horse.