Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Miss Rori]

Many know Disney is the only company with this large of a box office issue.

Anyway...

WB has a hit with Wonka and the two Japanese films continue to succeed big at box office.

Next weekend's going to be really interesting. While a lot of people are still/will be busy with seasonal activities, Christmas does generally see an uptick in moviegoing. But while everyone's acting like Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is a big deal, I think WB gave up on that one a while back. There hasn't been much promotion for it at all from my perspective (we didn't even get the theatrical trailer until September! Meanwhile Dune Part Two just released a third trailer for next spring), and no wonder, they've got superhero burnout just as bad as Disney does if not worse.

No, WB's been leaning in on Wonka and to a lesser extent The Color Purple. People who like Wonka seem to really like it (I saw it on Thursday and was happy to eat my words over my initial doubts). And the positioning means that if the word-of-mouth is healthy, it can pay off ala Sing 2 or Puss in Boots - The Last Wish on Christmas weekend, and play into the new year. But with two big new titles, how big of a drop will it have in weekend 2?

Migration seems a bit up in the air so to speak. I guess the international box office has been decent so far but not a breakout, and as with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom the review embargo hasn't been lifted yet. If this is what families have been waiting for (Universal's marketed it fairly aggressively), an upset over Aquaman is possible.

As for Wish, Christmas weekend is its last hope for a decent take. Disney intended it to have an open-ended run, and I think it's too late now to announce a surprise Christmas Day drop on Disney+. (EDIT: Or maybe not - Trolls Band Together gets a digital release Tuesday, although that's not the same as streaming.) But there's just too much coming in to keep it around in theaters much longer when Migration and Wonka, even The Boy and the Heron are fresher and more specialty titles begin to trickle in with awards season. So I would not be surprised if we see a big ad push for Wish this week as a last-ditch measure on Disney's part.

 

[Disney Irish]

What do you make of the news from this week that Paramount/CBS is looking for a buyer and Jason Momoa's downbeat take on Aqua Man and the Lost Kingdom's chances at the box office?

It seems like you think it's only/mainly Disney that has a problem?

Skydance is interesting as that would make it a major player. But I think look to someone like Apple (or even Netflix) to potentially buy Paramount.

Aquaman 2 is fairly DOA, thankfully WBD had Barbie this year otherwise they'd have been in the same position as Disney right now.

 

[Phroobar]

Wonka was pretty darn good. Fun musical.

 

[Miss Rori]

Wonka was pretty darn good. Fun musicaI.

I couldn't get myself to go to see Wish after reading up on it and hearing the song samples, and it's quite amusing to me to consider Wonka has a lot of plot and character similarities - the importance of dreams hangs heavy over the story - but seems to be executing them far better. The hero is quirky, but has real character development. He gains a group of (racially diverse!) friends who make specific and meaningful contributions to the quest. The principal antagonists have a "classic Disney villain" feel. And while I'd bet that the movie has as many call-forwards to Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory in particular as Wish seems to have Disney Easter eggs, they're not there just to be spotted but recontextualized in interesting ways.

Spoiler: Spoilers for both movies

The difference between "When You Wish Upon a Star" being evoked in the Wish score and the use of "Pure Imagination" in Wonka's score is telling; the former's payoff is just a post-credit gag, the latter's is a new angle on the original song and its message for the movie's actual denouement.

 

[celluloid]

Wonka was pretty darn good. Fun musical.

Saw it after my second Godzilla showing.

I can't believe how fun it was. Nice surprise and it leaned I to the connection in the right places while holding it's own.

The music and lyrics really show how bad Wish's is.

 

[celluloid]

Yep its wild how even with its legs that Trolls 3 may not break even, needing something like $240M. So while Disney has its woes right now, other animated movies aren't all totally crushing it either.

200 million Disney Princess movie.
96 million Trolls 3.

One is a fizzle finale to a series that made them money.
The other is a cry for help.

It is not like Trolls 3 was The Marvels, The Haunted Mansion or Wish level failure.

It is a third installment of a Jukebox musical wacky trippy movie.

 

[Disney Irish]

200 million Disney Princess movie.
96 million Trolls 3.

One is a fizzle finale to a series that made them money.
The other is a cry for help.

It is not like Trolls 3 was The Marvels, The Haunted Mansion or Wish level failure.

It is a third installment of a Jukebox musical wacky trippy movie.

Trolls 3 will most likely be in the loss column for Uni, close to $55M loss by the looks of it, that is what I'm pointing out. That other animation movies aren't all killing it against Disney. Just another example of how the audience isn't just all picking everything except Disney stuff. That even a low budget animated movie is losing right now too. Yes it outperformed Wish, and so it might not be on the level of Disney's movies, but its still a loss for an animated movie at the box office.

Personally I don't want any animated movie to do badly, as I like the art form hence being a Disney fan. But if we're really calling the balls and strikes of the box office, then we have to call it fairly.

And if we're calling it fairly, I suspect Trolls 3 will do fine on streaming.

 

[ABQ]

Aquaman 2 is fairly DOA

Saw the trailer for that last night at a showing of Godzilla, which was great, but that Aquaman trailer was just so meh. I don't think even the most die hard DC superfan would bother to see that.

 

[celluloid]

Trolls 3 will most likely be in the loss column for Uni, close to $55M loss by the looks of it, that is what I'm pointing out. That other animation movies aren't all killing it against Disney. Just another example of how the audience isn't just all picking everything except Disney stuff. That even a low budget animated movie is losing right now too. Yes it outperformed Wish, and so it might not be on the level of Disney's movies, but its still a loss for an animated movie at the box office.

Personally I don't want any animated movie to do badly, as I like the art form hence being a Disney fan. But if we're really calling the balls and strikes of the box office, then we have to call it fairly.

And if we're calling it fairly, I suspect Trolls 3 will do fine on streaming.

Trolls 3, deserves to be the kind of movie to only make its money back on streaming, and I say this as a father with a daughter who loves the others and think all the holiday specials and shirts uave been fun. Trolls 3 was just not that good, but clearly better appreciated than Wish. And that is scary.
I don't mind an animated.movie doing badly is the product is not good.

The issue is a Disney Princess.movie is has a worse audience reception than Trolls 3.

Boy and The Heron, Mario and Spiderverse all did well this year so it is not like Animation is dire.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

As for Wish, Christmas weekend is its last hope for a decent take. Disney intended it to have an open-ended run, and I think it's too late now to announce a surprise Christmas Day drop on Disney+. (EDIT: Or maybe not - Trolls Band Together gets a digital release Tuesday, although that's not the same as streaming.) But there's just too much coming in to keep it around in theaters much longer when Migration and Wonka, even The Boy and the Heron are fresher and more specialty titles begin to trickle in with awards season. So I would not be surprised if we see a big ad push for Wish this week as a last-ditch measure on Disney's part.

If Disney were to announce on Friday that Wish was getting a surprise Christmas Day release, I don't think they'd be leaving much on the table. They've seen how it has performed after a month in theaters and I doubt the holiday season is going to make or break the film's profitability at this point.

 

[DKampy]

If Disney were to announce on Friday that Wish was getting a surprise Christmas Day release, I don't think they'd be leaving much on the table. They've seen how it has performed after a month in theaters and I doubt the holiday season is going to make or break the film's profitability at this point.

I don’t they will or should announce a Disney plus Christmas release… they need to retrain the audience to not expect a quick turn around from theaters to streaming… It is not the full reason, but I do believe it is a piece of the puzzle to the issues at Disney’s box office

 

[TP2000]

Weekend box office estimates are out now, with exact revision to be released tomorrow. Wonka has already grossed more globally in its first weekend than Wish has a full month after its release.

Wonka Production Budget $125 Million, Global Box Office = $156 Million
Wish Production Budget $200 Million, Global Box Office = $126 Million

 

[TP2000]

So when Fast is #5 worldwide it was a hit worldwide, but when The Little Mermaid is #6 domestically it was a flop domestically

Yes, because compared to the previous Disney live action musicals, The Little Mermaid flopped domestically.

And with its huge production budget of $250 Million and a marketing budget of $140 Million, The Little Mermaid lost just over $100 Million for Disney at the box office. It lost Disney $100 Million, and that shouldn't have happened.

And in foreign markets it was an even bigger flop. Foreigners did not choose to see The Little Mermaid '23.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I don’t they will or should announce a Disney plus Christmas release… they need to retrain the audience to not expect a quick turn around from theaters to streaming… It is not the full reason, but I do believe it is a piece of the puzzle to the issues at Disney’s box office

People in this thread keep saying Disney needs to retain their audience, but I think it's too late for that. Too many direct to streaming, or 1 month later releases have taken their toll.

I also don't think subscribers will be happy to wait 6 months+ for these releases. Not if there's now fewer new releases overall.

 

[Phroobar]

Saw it after my second Godzilla showing.

I can't believe how fun it was. Nice surprise and it leaned I to the connection in the right places while holding it's own.

The music and lyrics really show how bad Wish's is.

It is the kind of stuff Disney used to produce.

 

[TsWade2]

I don’t they will or should announce a Disney plus Christmas release… they need to retrain the audience to not expect a quick turn around from theaters to streaming… It is not the full reason, but I do believe it is a piece of the puzzle to the issues at Disney’s box office

Yeah, I doubt that Wish comes to DisneyPlus on Christmas. It'll probably come maybe in February or March 2024.

 

[erasure fan1]

People in this thread keep saying Disney needs to retain their audience, but I think it's too late for that. Too many direct to streaming, or 1 month later releases have taken their toll.

I also don't think subscribers will be happy to wait 6 months+ for these releases. Not if there's now fewer new releases overall.

I was going to say something similar. I was one who thought they needed to hold off on the quick turn to D+. But as I've been thinking about it, I'm not sure how much it's going to matter at this point. We all know things will be on D+ at some point. So for myself, if the movie isn't, either something that I am extremely interested in. Or something that is getting extremely great word of mouth, I'm ok with just waiting. I know it's easier said than done, but they need to get that fear of missing out back.

If a movie has done terrible, pull it to D+ in a month or so. If it's doing well, keep it out for as long as needed. People aren't going to all of a sudden start saying, oh man, this movie no one is going to, and no one seems to like, might not be on D+ for 6 months. I better go see it now!

 

[TP2000]

The issue is a Disney Princess movie has a worse audience reception than Trolls 3.

Boy and The Heron, Mario and Spiderverse all did well this year so it is not like Animation is dire.

This is clearly not the global audience reception Disney expected when they spent $300 Million to make and market Wish.

Happy 100th Birthday, Walt Disney Animation! ......... Oh. Uh-oh.

 

[Disney Irish]

Trolls 3, deserves to be the kind of movie to only make its money back on streaming, and I say this as a father with a daughter who loves the others and think all the holiday specials and shirts uave been fun. Trolls 3 was just not that good, but clearly better appreciated than Wish. And that is scary.
I don't mind an animated.movie doing badly is the product is not good.

The issue is a Disney Princess.movie is has a worse audience reception than Trolls 3.

Boy and The Heron, Mario and Spiderverse all did well this year so it is not like Animation is dire.

I haven't watched Trolls 3 so cannot attest to its quality, but if you say it was not good I'll believe you. I did however see Wish and can say its quality is a whole lot better than its box office indicates.

Also no one said animation is dire right now. What I said is that there are animation movies that aren't just automatically killing it at the box office. The common statement in this thread is that families are just picking everything else and going to it instead of Disney movies, and I'm saying that the box office doesn't actually show that. That in fact they are skipping other movies too just like they are Disney movies.

 

[Miss Rori]

If Disney were to announce on Friday that Wish was getting a surprise Christmas Day release, I don't think they'd be leaving much on the table. They've seen how it has performed after a month in theaters and I doubt the holiday season is going to make or break the film's profitability at this point.

I agree with you there. If I were them, that's what I would do - at least it might discourage people from going out to see Migration or Wonka. Who knows, maybe that's what they'll go ahead with. It's not just that there isn't any cash left on the table in the U.S. at least, this movie is going to be a total nonstarter in awards season.