Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

They are vastly overpaying. Victoria Alonso was fired for cause.

Her firing had nothing to do with the VFX work, it was for her breach of a non-compete clause in her contract.

As for them overpaying, I wont disagree. But a lot of the overpaying had to do with their original process for reshoots. It was one of the reasons why the VFX teams unionized. Now that that is something that is changing hopefully VFX won't cost as much since they won't have to be redoing VFX work.

 

[Disney Irish]

I would have to believe shareholders DO care that these bloated budget films are failing to cover cost. That would be absolutely bananas if they didn't.

Are you aware of any shareholder inquiries into studio budgets? I'm not aware of any. So unless there are their silence indicates they don't care very much.

Just like I don't hear any cries from Paramount shareholders for spending $300M on MI:7 and not getting it back. Or Uni shareholders for spending $340M on Fast X and not getting it back. Shareholders tend not to care about Hollywood budgets, never really have as its the nature of the business. Now maybe that changes in the future, but as of now I don't see any inquires into Disney or any other studios budgets.

 

[ABQ]

Are you aware of any shareholder inquiries into studio budgets? I'm not aware of any. So unless there are their silence indicates they don't care very much.

Just like I don't hear any cries from Paramount shareholders for spending $300M on MI:7 and not getting it back. Or Uni shareholders for spending $340M on Fast X and not getting it back. Shareholders tend not to care about Hollywood budgets, never really have as its the nature of the business. Now maybe that changes in the future, but as of now I don't see any inquires into Disney or any other studios budgets.

You're likely not to hear much from Universal shareholders as they distributed Mario and Oppenheimer which sort of makes the Fast X numbers easier to stomach. And don't forget Cocaine Bear!

 

[Disney Irish]

You're likely not to hear much from Universal shareholders as they distributed Mario and Oppenheimer which sort of makes the Fast X numbers easier to stomach. And don't forget Cocaine Bear!

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The point still stands, you aren't going to hear from them anyways as its the nature of the studio business.

 

[LSLS]

Are you aware of any shareholder inquiries into studio budgets? I'm not aware of any. So unless there are their silence indicates they don't care very much.

Just like I don't hear any cries from Paramount shareholders for spending $300M on MI:7 and not getting it back. Or Uni shareholders for spending $340M on Fast X and not getting it back. Shareholders tend not to care about Hollywood budgets, never really have as its the nature of the business. Now maybe that changes in the future, but as of now I don't see any inquires into Disney or any other studios budgets.

But the losses didn't add up for Paramount. Sure MI7 lost money. We'd estimate they lost, what, $150 million there? But, Scream VI makes $70 million, and Paw Patrol makes $120 million, and they are in the black. I'd say there's a good chance they don't care much about individual budgets, but I think seeing a loss of a billion dollars at the box office would have them question why they lost so much there (assuming that level of detail gets reported out).

 

[Disney Irish]

But the losses didn't add up for Paramount. Sure MI7 lost money. We'd estimate they lost, what, $150 million there? But, Scream VI makes $70 million, and Paw Patrol makes $120 million, and they are in the black. I'd say there's a good chance they don't care much about individual budgets, but I think seeing a loss of a billion dollars at the box office would have them question why they lost so much there (assuming that level of detail gets reported out).

Except I don’t think Paramount is in the black, I think @Casper Gutman or someone did the math and figured out that Paramount has extensive losses this year too.

On top of that studios don’t actually report out that level of detail. They report out the overall performance of the company. Which is why in the case of Disney shareholders they aren’t going to care all that much of bloated budgets since the overall company is profitable. It’s only when you get into deep discussions on fan sites like this that people start to care. But this isn’t a new conversation or new issue, Disney has long had a bloat issue going back decades, so long that it’s become a long standing joke.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Except I don’t think Paramount is in the black, I think @Casper Gutman or someone did the math and figured out that Paramount has extensive losses this year too.

On top of that studios don’t actually report out that level of detail. They report out the overall performance of the company. Which is why in the case of Disney shareholders they aren’t going to care all that much of bloated budgets since the overall company is profitable. It’s only when you get into deep discussions on fan sites like this that people start to care. But this isn’t a new conversation or new issue, Disney has long had a bloat issue going back decades, so long that it’s become a long standing joke.

Paramount probably can’t cover its debts and is likely going to be sold. It’s a big story today.

Warner Bros. is also likely to go bankrupt within two years.

It ain’t just Disney.

 

[LSLS]

Except I don’t think Paramount is in the black, I think @Casper Gutman or someone did the math and figured out that Paramount has extensive losses this year too.

On top of that studios don’t actually report out that level of detail. They report out the overall performance of the company. Which is why in the case of Disney shareholders they aren’t going to care all that much of bloated budgets since the overall company is profitable. It’s only when you get into deep discussions on fan sites like this that people start to care. But this isn’t a new conversation or new issue, Disney has long had a bloat issue going back decades, so long that it’s become a long standing joke.

They might not be, I'm just simply saying that the losses for their big movie was made up elsewhere. Disney has much larger losses that have been much more public. But I agree, I don't think that detail is out there. But IF the section the studios are in report losses, I think more digging could happen and there could be questions on the studio side (lot of ifs). Honestly I'm kind of out of my comfort zone discussing investor calls and what the major players look at, but I do think this is a bit unprecedented in the losses this year so I'm not sure if that changes things.

 

[Disney Irish]

They might not be, I'm just simply saying that the losses for their big movie was made up elsewhere. Disney has much larger losses that have been much more public. But I agree, I don't think that detail is out there. But IF the section the studios are in report losses, I think more digging could happen and there could be questions on the studio side (lot of ifs). Honestly I'm kind of out of my comfort zone discussing investor calls and what the major players look at, but I do think this is a bit unprecedented in the losses this year so I'm not sure if that changes things.

Except as @Casper Gutman just alluded to Paramount's owners are trying to offload the studio as we speak. They have literally been talking to creditors all year trying to deal with their debt, so no their losses weren't made up elsewhere.

WBD has been cutting content left and right to save costs and make itself available to be sold next year. So even though it might be winning the box office with Barbie, they too aren't in the black like many claim.

This is what happens when you get too in the weeds, and fail to look at the larger picture of how the industry is playing out right now.

As for Disney, yes its public because Disney is a lighting rod for scrutiny right now. But it still doesn't mean that the major shareholders are looking that closely at the box office receipts and studio budgets. They are looking at the overall company bottom line, and on that Disney is still in the black and profitable. If that ever changes maybe they might start inquiring about, but until then they aren't.

 

[TalkingHead]

They’re not giving any of their awards titles this year a big theatrical push.

To give the devil his due, noticed that Netflix’s Maestro is playing (for a week?) starting today in one Cinépolis theater in metro Orlando. Looks like some CMX locations are getting it too (but not the CMX in Orlando, go figure).

Also for those locals interested Poor Things is apparently being rolled out slowly but it’s now playing at Disney Springs AMC.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Fast X was this year’s fifth highest grossing film globally.

Universal grossed $3B+ from just Mario, Oppenheimer, and Fast X.

View attachment 759086

Fast X was still a significant underperformer and disappointment. TLM was the year’ seventh highest grosser. Elemental was ninth and Ant-Man 3 was tenth. Odd that you cut the chart off where you did…

 

[DKampy]

Fast X was this year’s fifth highest grossing film globally.

Universal grossed $3B+ from just Mario, Oppenheimer, and Fast X.

View attachment 759086

So when Fast is #5 worldwide it was a hit worldwide, but when The Little Mermaid is #6 domestically it was a flop domestically

 

[celluloid]

You're likely not to hear much from Universal shareholders as they distributed Mario and Oppenheimer which sort of makes the Fast X numbers easier to stomach. And don't forget Cocaine Bear!

View attachment 758984

This also leaves out Migration which will likely end up on this list and The Holdovers, which was a smash hit for its Focus Features Indie budget.(comparable in release time and audience to Next Goal wins, which failed for Disney as well)

It is not shocking that Trolls 3 outgrossed Wish(well to a few on here who thought that could never happen) but the fact that during these holiday break weeks arriving Trolls 3 appears to have better legs is absolutely wild.

Universal had the Horror Genre this year(neat since it is back to their specialty) the family market and the drama market. Also wild that Animation was so high from multiple studios and the brand of quality has fallen so far from Dis.

Dis no longer has the market share in animation. A wild thing.

 

[celluloid]

You're setting the bar far too high with Universal - Disney's latest $200M+ tentpole Thanksgiving Day release is struggling to even catch the global box office of WB's "DC League of Super Pets" and Paramounts pre-school "PAW Patrol:The Mighty Movie".

The current state of the Disney brand around the world is truly astonishing.

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It is quite a time to owe Universal 9 billion dollars and have leadership coming out of a writer's and SAG strike that openly said "they are not being realistic"

Brand is damaged all around.

 

[_caleb]

This also leaves out Migration which will likely end up on this list and The Holdovers, which was a smash hit for its Focus Features Indie budget.(comparable in release time and audience to Next Goal wins, which failed for Disney as well)

It is not shocking that Trolls 3 outgrossed Wish(well to a few on here who thought that could never happen) but the fact that during these holiday break weeks arriving Trolls 3 appears to have better legs is absolutely wild.

Universal had the Horror Genre this year(neat since it is back to their specialty) the family market and the drama market. Also wild that Animation was so high from multiple studios and the brand of quality has fallen so far from Dis.

Dis no longer has the market share in animation. A wild thing.

What do you make of the news from this week that Paramount/CBS is looking for a buyer and Jason Momoa's downbeat take on Aqua Man and the Lost Kingdom's chances at the box office?

It seems like you think it's only/mainly Disney that has a problem?

 

[celluloid]

What do you make of the news from this week that Paramount/CBS is looking for a buyer and Jason Momoa's downbeat take on Aqua Man and the Lost Kingdom's chances at the box office?

It seems like you think it's only/mainly Disney that has a problem?

As far as what to make of Paramount specific news. It would be wild if Universal either bought Sony or Paramount. Both have been considered.

Jason Momoa's specific editorial opinion. An actor's take on what is pretty predictable since the first movie was not great, Superhero saturation and co-star bad PR? No big surprise.

I don't think Disney is the only company with box office woes. That always happens.

Many know Disney is the only company with this large of a box office issue.

Anyway...

WB has a hit with Wonka and the two Japanese films continue to succeed big at box office.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

What do you make of the news from this week that Paramount/CBS is looking for a buyer and Jason Momoa's downbeat take on Aqua Man and the Lost Kingdom's chances at the box office?

It seems like you think it's only/mainly Disney that has a problem?

Off topic from the question you asked but that article has me wondering if Disney also have maturing debt that’s going to have to be refinanced at today’s high interest rates?

Carrying billions in debt at 4% has to be a lot easier to manage than billions of debt at 8%.

(No idea if those rates are remotely accurate, just using mortgage rates because most of us can relate to those.)

 

[_caleb]

Off topic from the question you asked but that article has me wondering if Disney also have maturing debt that’s going to have to be refinanced at today’s high interest rates?

Carrying billions in debt at 4% has to be a lot easier to manage than billions of debt at 8%.

(No idea if those rates are remotely accurate, just using mortgage rates because most of us can relate to those.)

Yeah. Wasn't Disney's debt like $46B? Though with the Fed signaling interest rate cuts in the coming year, I imagine they're not as worried as they might have been.

 

[Disney Irish]

Off topic from the question you asked but that article has me wondering if Disney also have maturing debt that’s going to have to be refinanced at today’s high interest rates?

Carrying billions in debt at 4% has to be a lot easier to manage than billions of debt at 8%.

(No idea if those rates are remotely accurate, just using mortgage rates because most of us can relate to those.)

Yeah. Wasn't Disney's debt like $46B? Though with the Fed signaling interest rate cuts in the coming year, I imagine they're not as worried as they might have been.

Disney currently has $44B in debt, plus I believe something like $1.5B debt for the Asian parks.

Disney has something like $1.1B debt that comes due in January, but I believe the next major maturing debt is $1.5B due in 2026, and then another $1B dues in 2028. All other debt is due in the 2030s and beyond.

So while some have been concerned about it, they are actually fine with both their short and long term debts. They are paying it down yearly and should be back to pre-pandemic debt levels in 2024/2025 unless they decide to roll some of it over.

Outside of Paramount and WBD, the company that should be worried is Comcast, they have $96B in debt with something like close to $10B due before the end of 2025. And while obviously they aren't going bankrupt with Uni is doing good right now, and certainly the $8B check that Disney just wrote for Hulu will help, they have some major debt that needs to be handled in short order. Them adding over $40B in debt in the last 5 years has been a major concern for Wall St.

 

[Disney Irish]

This also leaves out Migration which will likely end up on this list and The Holdovers, which was a smash hit for its Focus Features Indie budget.(comparable in release time and audience to Next Goal wins, which failed for Disney as well)

It is not shocking that Trolls 3 outgrossed Wish(well to a few on here who thought that could never happen) but the fact that during these holiday break weeks arriving Trolls 3 appears to have better legs is absolutely wild.

Universal had the Horror Genre this year(neat since it is back to their specialty) the family market and the drama market. Also wild that Animation was so high from multiple studios and the brand of quality has fallen so far from Dis.

Dis no longer has the market share in animation. A wild thing.

Yep its wild how even with its legs that Trolls 3 may not break even, needing something like $240M. So while Disney has its woes right now, other animated movies aren't all totally crushing it either.

We'll see what happens with Migration, but I'm not holding out hope that it will crush it either, as it needs about $200M to break even and so far not looking good with forecasts -