Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

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doctornick

Well-Known Member
erasure fan1 said:
There is a third alternative. It's the sign up for a month, watch what you want, then cancel. Then maybe see if there's enough on a different platform to watch, and do that for a month. Then just wait for more stuff to be released. In the meantime use things like Tubi or YouTube.
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IMHO, that option will go away in the near future. Streamers are going to require people to have contracts for multiple months or a year. Binge and purge isn't going to be sustainable for streamers and there's nothing written in stone that streaming will have to continue to function the way it originally did. we've already seen movement on ad free and other changes will come until streaming becomes consistently profitable.
 
erasure fan1

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
In my opinion I see almost no chance Disney or any other premium streamer switching to or adding a FAST offering.
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Oh there's no chance Disney implements a fast service. I was only pointing it out as part of a third option consumers have. We will see 2 new E-tickets additions in every park before we see Disney have a free option.
Disney Irish said:
Same thing was said about Netflix never having an ad tier or never preventing password sharing. Its claimed it has zero chance of happening until it happens.
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True, but those things don't hinder churn. I cancelled my Netflix as soon as the password sharing ban started. I see no scenario where any of the streaming companies say, yea you can't come back for 6 months or a year... Or anything like that. They will welcome your money back with open arms and hope this time you will stay.

That said, we are talking about a bunch of companies who love to push the boundaries ofwhat they can get away with. So will they try? Maybe, I just highly doubt it.
 
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doctornick

Well-Known Member
erasure fan1 said:
Yes, but the difference is it's a free service. Most people don't mind ads with the base price being free. Now if Disney wants an ad based plan. Make it free and premium content doesn't come to it for 9 to 12 months or something like that.
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This sounds exactly like what happen with cable networks in the 1980's. "why are we getting commercials when we are already paying for the channel" and yet that happened anyway.

Streaming without commercials is going to command a high premium going forward, just like you paid extra for HBO compared to getting TBS.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
erasure fan1 said:
Oh there's no chance Disney implements a fast service. I was only pointing it out as part of a third option consumers have. We will see 2 new E-tickets additions in every park before we see Disney have a free option.
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On this at least we agree lol.

erasure fan1 said:
True, but those things don't hinder churn. I cancelled my Netflix as soon as the password sharing ban started. I see no scenario where any of the streaming companies say, yea you can't come back for 6 months or a year... Or anything like that. They will welcome your money back with open arms and hope this time you will stay.

That said, we are talking about a bunch of companies who love to push the boundaries ofwhat they can get away with. So will they try? Maybe, I just highly doubt it.
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As new sub growth get tight and retention is key I just don't see any other option they have but to deal with churn. Will that mean locking into a term contract, or a pause on resub after cancellation, I don't know. But it just seem inevitable at some point, and maybe sooner than even I think.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Disney Analyst said:
Hello, just the biggest Hollywood news! First double strike (WGA and SAG/AFTRA) since 1960.
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Oh. Well, that's going to put a dent in movies and TV shows in production for this fall and beyond, won't it.

We're supposed to have a very stormy winter with El Nino building out in the Pacific, but we'll be stuck at home without much new to watch. And people said I was crazy for spending all my money at Tiffany's on Blu-Rays. ;)
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
brb1006 said:
Yeah, it's been everywhere on news sites dedicated to Hollywood, Movies, and Shows for the past couple of weeks.
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I did read an article about it a few weeks ago, when it was potentially a triple strike with the Directors. But they called for a strike vote and it starts tonight? Wow. This will be interesting to watch.

I don't remember a strike in 1960, but I do vaguely remember an actor's strike in the early 80's as I recall.

This is going to really slam the LA local economy, at least short term. So much of its dining and service based economy relies on "Hollywood".
 
Disney Analyst

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
TP2000 said:
I did read an article about it a few weeks ago, when it was potentially a triple strike with the Directors. But they called for a strike vote and it starts tonight? Wow. This will be interesting to watch.

I don't remember a strike in 1960, but I do vaguely remember an actor's strike in the early 80's as I recall.

This is going to really slam the LA local economy, at least short term. So much of its dining and service based economy relies on "Hollywood".
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The Strike in the 1960s was led by SAG President at that time, Ronald Reagan.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Let's do a Fun, Fun, Fun, Summer Box Office Update for Disney's four summer tentpoles before Mission: Impossible takes over this weekend, and Barbie shows up in her Corvette the following weekend.

So far as of July 12th, Disney's four tentpoles have delivered a combined loss of $461 Million for the Walt Disney Company. 🤔

Only one of their tentpoles has made a profit, Guardians 3. Using a very lowball estimate that each studio only spent $100 Million in global marketing on each film, plus the most optimistic outlook that Disney got 60% of domestic and 40% of overseas box office on all four movies, here's how the numbers currently stack up on each film in order of profitability thus far.

Guardians 3 Production/Marketing $350, $407 Global Box Office = +$57 Million
Mermaid Production/Marketing $350, $276 Global Box Office = -$74 Million
Elemental $300 Production/Marketing, $126 Global Box Office = -$174 Million
Indy 5 Production/Marketing $400, $130 Global Box Office = -$270 Million

Summer Update.jpg

Elemental has legs, but it's only going to be able to lessen the loss globally for that Pixar flick, it's not going to leg itself to profatibility.
Mermaid doesn't look like it's going to get to break even, but at least it's not as bad as Indy 5 which looks like it could lose at least $200 Million. So... maybe Haunted Mansion will go like gangbusters? Or something?

It's not a good summer for Burbank's mega-budget studios. Maybe Bob should think about taking their T-Bird away? :(



www.the-numbers.com

Movie Comparison: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) vs. The Little Mermaid (2023) vs. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (2023) vs. Elemental (2023)

Domestic box office comparison between Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) and The Little Mermaid (2023) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (2023) and Elemental (2023)
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com
 
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wtyy21

wtyy21

Well-Known Member
erasure fan1

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
doctornick said:
This sounds exactly like what happen with cable networks in the 1980's. "why are we getting commercials when we are already paying for the channel" and yet that happened anyway.

Streaming without commercials is going to command a high premium going forward, just like you paid extra for HBO compared to getting TBS.
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It is very much like cable tv. The problem is if streaming ends up costing more than traditional cable/satellite just to get the 4 streaming services you want. We're all back where we started. A very large part of the media consumption audience has given up on traditional studios. They watch YouTube content creators. I'd say 85 to 90% of my TV is YouTube creators because traditional outlets have very little content that falls within my hobbies and interests. So if push comes to shove, it's bye bye streaming for me. I don't think I am alone in that either. Streaming is a thing because people were sick of the crazy bills. So if we just end up with more crazy bills, then something is going to give.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
erasure fan1 said:
A very large part of the media consumption audience has given up on traditional studios. They watch YouTube content creators. I'd say 85 to 90% of my TV is YouTube creators because traditional outlets have very little content that falls within my hobbies and interests.
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I do that constantly now in the evenings. I haven't watched network TV in years, and I don't even watch cable TV any more. I watch YouTube.

And it's insanely niche stuff, yet often beautifully produced in 4K with just a late-model iPhone or cheap GoPro, and I can watch it for hours. Recipes, gardening, travel reviews, chefs and cooking, English manor home tours, cocktails, dog grooming, history and current events, etc.

I often watch a lady in Canada called "Girl With The Dogs" who expertly grooms dogs on YouTube and it's hilarious and yet interesting. She no longer charges for her services because she's making so much money from YouTube, and she also donates to some wonderful animal charities and shelters.

The world has changed. My evening TV entertainment is now made up of content that needed no "Writer" and no "Actor" or "Actress".
 

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