Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The point is you either stick with cable/linear or you switch to streaming. But either way you're going to get ads or if moving to streaming you pay a higher price to get no ads. There is no third alternative at this point. Even if a third alternative comes along it won't take long before advertisers find a way to entice it to have ads.

So yeah you have more competition with streaming and can switch among them easily, all of which pretty much have ads now or will soon. Want D+, oops you got ads now or pay a higher price for no ads. Want Netflix, oops you got ads now or pay a higher price for no ads. Want Max, oops you got ads now or you pay a higher price for no ads. Even YouTube, you get ads, or pay for Premium to get no ads. Heck there are reports that even Amazon and Apple are looking to add an ad tier to Prime and Apple+.

Again the era of streaming with low fees and no ads is over. The sleeping dragon has awoken and streaming providers have rolled out the ads to increase revenue, no turning back now.

I’m sure that’s what they’re gonna try for..

But they seem to be suffering from a fatal flaw as well: not remembering that broadcast operated as a monopoly and cable was even worse.

So what has to happen is two things for this to work:
1. All the providers have collude to Jack fees and bombard ads…no real stretch/problem there
2. Masses of households have to agree to pay additional $100+ a month to get the equivalent content of what cable provided 20 years ago when they revolted at $100 and cord cutting took off.


The second part is the kicker..it will lead to an explosion of micro transaction internet/social media based offerings and/or price wars

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m sure that’s what they’re gonna try for..

But they seem to be suffering from a fatal flaw as well: not remembering that broadcast operated as a monopoly and cable was even worse.

So what has to happen is two things for this to work:
1. All the providers have collide to Jack fees and bombard ads…no real stretch/problem there
2. Masses of households have to agree to pay additional $100+ a month to get the equivalent content of what cable provided 20 years ago when they revolted at $100 and cord cutting took off.


The second part is the kicker..it will lead to an explosion of micro transaction internet/social media based offerings and/or price wars

And the only reason why cord cutting took off was there was an alternative. In this case there is no third alternative, and probably won't be at least not for a potentially long time, so yeah I see price wars happening, which is sort of already happened.

Also micro transactions already occur today in the gaming industry, no reason to think streamers won't find a way to make that happen as well. Chapek even hinted this was being looked at for D+ when there was talk about making Disney Store available in D+.

So you can grimace and rant all you want about how streaming is making the same mistake as cable, but it won't change it from happening. Entertainment industry always finds a way for the consumer to part ways with their money, its as old as time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And the only reason why cord cutting took off was there was an alternative. In this case there is no third alternative, and probably won't be at least not for a potentially long time, so yeah I see price wars happening, which is sort of already happened.

Also micro transactions already occur today in the gaming industry, no reason to think streamers won't find a way to make that happen as well. Chapek even hinted this was being looked at for D+ when there was talk about making Disney Store available in D+.

So you can grimace and rant all you want about how streaming is making the same mistake as cable, but it won't change it from happening. Entertainment industry always finds a way for the consumer to part ways with their money, its as old as time.

There is absolutely an alternative now: 10 other streams and internet content/apps/etc.

Most of North American cable was a local monopoly. One provider. That’s why Diagon alley looks so cool today.

I’ll ask this again: did you ever pay a cable bill or watch cable? There’s a complete intellectual disconnect here. You’re just repeating the crap Iger and chapek spun during speeches.

 

[Disney Irish]

There is absolutely an alternative now: 10 other streams and internet content/apps/etc.

Most of North American cable was a local monopoly. One provider. That’s why Diagon alley looks so cool today.

I’ll ask this again: did you ever pay a cable bill or watch cable? There’s a complete intellectual disconnect here. You’re just repeating the crap Iger and chapek spun during speeches.

Once again, those alternatives that you keep talking about pretty much ALL have ads or are adding ads soon. Even the apps are starting to get ads played during content viewing. There is no escaping it, so I don't know how much of an alternative you think that really is. So yes its easy to switch from one to another, but you're going to be switching to another one that also has ads or a higher fee for no ads. They are all finding ways to add ads to your viewing or make you pay more.

Look if you don't think that is sustainable, cool I get that is your opinion. But in the end its the entertainment industry that is doing it not me.

And yes I've been paying for cable since the Clinton administration. And switched to another at one time or another as there have been multiple providers in my region since Reagan.

 

[flynnibus]

There’s a reason i see you arguing with empty space Irish…

 

[Disney Irish]

There’s a reason i see you arguing with empty space Irish…

If you have something to contribute please do….

 

[erasure fan1]

There is no third alternative at this point. Even if a third alternative comes along it won't take long before advertisers find a way to entice it to have ads.

There is a third alternative. It's the sign up for a month, watch what you want, then cancel. Then maybe see if there's enough on a different platform to watch, and do that for a month. Then just wait for more stuff to be released. In the meantime use things like Tubi or YouTube.

Steamers might try to milk everything they can, but the consumer can stick it to them just as easy. So there definitely will need to be a balancing act between cost with ads and no ads.

 

[Disney Irish]

There is a third alternative. It's the sign up for a month, watch what you want, then cancel. Then maybe see if there's enough on a different platform to watch, and do that for a month. Then just wait for more stuff to be released. In the meantime use things like Tubi or YouTube.

Steamers might try to milk everything they can, but the consumer can stick it to them just as easy. So there definitely will need to be a balancing act between cost with ads and no ads.

I get the point, and mostly agree with it. However I don't consider that a true viable third alternative as its just using the system within second alternative of streaming. But even in your scenario you are still hit with ads in one form or another, such as on Tubi and YouTube.

Look just so its clear, I'm not saying I like the whole ad tier or even want ads, I honestly don't. And I understand that is part of the reason for cord cutting, however primarily was because consumers didn't want to pay for bundled channels they didn't want as happened with cable model. All I'm saying is that this is what the entertainment industry is doing, whether we like it or not. As that is how they are going to make the revenue targets for these services. Its not just a Disney thing, this is industry wide, all services are doing this, hence why I mentioned there is no escaping it. So yeah you can churn and switch to different services month after month, until streamers lock that down and make it harder to churn, but ads will be part of it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And yes I've been paying for cable since the Clinton administration. And switched to another at one time or another as there have been multiple providers in my region since Reagan.

Ahhhh…so that’s part of the issue there…regulated cable made ALOT of enemies…

Don’t expect that not to happen here again if they start wasting peoples time to send a bill to Madison Avenue

Nothing Disney makes is something people will not have a price ceiling on

That is the flaw with all streams including D+

…I know…shocking

 

[Dranth]

Ahhhh…so that’s part of the issue there…regulated cable made ALOT of enemies…

Don’t expect that not to happen here again if they start wasting peoples time to send a bill to Madison Avenue

Nothing Disney makes is something people will not have a price ceiling on

That is the flaw with all streams including D+

…I know…shocking

At which point packaged cable bundles make a comeback, saving Disney's linear tv assets and making them hugely profitable again. Bob's evil plan is working like a charm!

Or we are headed to an all-streaming future where you can either pay less per month and get commercials or pay more per month and not have commercials. There aren't really any viable alternatives as all these streamers need to make money somehow. I think companies and the street also need to get use to the fact that they will not make as much money as they did in the golden years of overpriced, junk cable packages. There is just too much competition for people's time and attention.

I will never own a cable package again but I would pay for ESPN for certain sports when needed and rotate other services based on what I want to watch.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think companies and the street also need to get use to the fact that they will not make as much money as they did in the golden years of overpriced, junk cable packages. There is just too much competition for people's time and attention.

This is absolutely what they won’t accept…because they’ve been told otherwise based on hope. You know who’s really big in that?

I will never own a cable package again but I would pay for ESPN for certain sports when needed and rotate other services based on what I want to watch.

and that’s why they can never fulfill part 1.
There’s no “lock in” as there was with cable and bloat.

Abc/Disney had over 100 million people paying monthly for lifetime and the history channel for years because they needed espn.

I’m getting the impression from a lot of these stream threads that many don’t understand that?

 

[Dranth]

This is absolutely what they won’t accept…because they’ve been told otherwise based on hope. You know who’s really big in that?

Oh, they will, it will just take time. I think you saw the start of that when they all collectively emptied their bowels into their pants the day Netflix reported those horrible numbers. It will take them awhile but eventually things will settle down and streaming companies’ stocks will start to be valued under the new norm.

and that’s why they can never fulfill part 1.
There’s no “lock in” as there was with cable and bloat.

Abc/Disney had over 100 million people paying monthly for lifetime and the history channel for years because they needed espn.

Exactly, which is why both Disney and the market will be forced to deal with the reality of it eventually. Streaming can be profitable and I believe will be for them, maybe even very profitable, but it won't be at the levels they want and it won't be enough to replace what they had.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

I have both cable and streaming,so I am the odd one out, LOL.
We have had cable so long that if we discontinued it today, the renewal package only includes the 3 networks and PBS for a high price!!!
We get dozens of channels with our current package.
We also have Netflix and Amazon Prime.
We watch mostly the cable networks, probably 70/30 split with streaming getting the 30%. We have no plans to DC the cable at this time, and we are enjoying both worlds

 

[Disney Irish]

Ahhhh…so that’s part of the issue there…regulated cable made ALOT of enemies…

Don’t expect that not to happen here again if they start wasting peoples time to send a bill to Madison Avenue

Nothing Disney makes is something people will not have a price ceiling on

That is the flaw with all streams including D+

…I know…shocking

I'm fully aware of the disdain for "cable" in general, regulated or otherwise. Also just an FYI, but I use the term "cable" to mean any linear television delivery service whether that be traditional cable like Comcast or other delivery types like IPTV or Sat that doesn't fall into the OTT category; as they all effectively follow the same "cable" model.

Now I've long been on the record as saying that I see a new business built out of streaming where you have a provider offering subscriptions and access to other streaming services. That is something that is already here in some respects today as with some services like Prime you can subscribe and pay for other streamers through your Prime account. So it appears to be something that the market is already preparing for.

So yeah just like "cable" there will be a ceiling, just like everything in life, of what people are willing to pay for streamers. But my opinion is this model is going to be more accepted long term given how unlike cable one can pick and choose what services to subscribe to at any given time. We'll see long term what happens.

 

[Disney Irish]

I have both cable and streaming,so I am the odd one out, LOL.
We have had cable so long that if we discontinued it today, the renewal package only includes the 3 networks and PBS for a high price!!!
We get dozens of channels with our current package.
We also have Netflix and Amazon Prime.
We watch mostly the cable networks, probably 70/30 split with streaming getting the 30%. We have no plans to DC the cable at this time, and we are enjoying both worlds

You're not unique, I have both as well.

 

[erasure fan1]

But even in your scenario you are still hit with ads in one form or another, such as on Tubi and YouTube.

Yes, but the difference is it's a free service. Most people don't mind ads with the base price being free. Now if Disney wants an ad based plan. Make it free and premium content doesn't come to it for 9 to 12 months or something like that.

So yeah you can churn and switch to different services month after month, until streamers lock that down and make it harder to churn, but ads will be part of it.

People have been saying this for a long time. There's zero chance they make it harder to churn. When churn becomes a problem that's when the yearly special comes into play. They might lock out retuning subscribers from getting a promo, but they won't make it harder to cancel than sign up again.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I will never own a cable package again but I would pay for ESPN for certain sports when needed and rotate other services based on what I want to watch.

The NHL on ESPN+ was the sole reason I upgraded from D+ to a D+ bundle.

I currently have basic cable but I’m not sure why, 75% of my TV viewing is YouTube, 20% is D+/ESPN/Netflix, and the the last 5% is cable… and half that 5% isn’t even cable because it’s on my office TV which is on an antenna. We get about 20 channels for free over the air here, including ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, etc so even at the basic $40 rate it’s a waste… the sole reason I pay for cable is Golden Knights hockey games but now that I have ESPN+ and a VPN I really have no idea why I still pay a cable bill.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Yes, but the difference is it's a free service. Most people don't mind ads with the base price being free.

This is the same issue I have with Lightning lane, if I got in a FP line and had to wait 30 minutes it didn’t bother me (because it was free), we’ve tried ILL a few times and it drives me crazy to have to wait in a long LL line, anytime you pay extra for a “premium service” the expectation instantly goes up.

 

[Dranth]

The NHL on ESPN+ was the sole reason I upgraded from D+ to a D+ bundle.

I currently have basic cable but I’m not sure why, 75% of my TV viewing is YouTube, 20% is D+/ESPN/Netflix, and the the last 5% is cable… and half that 5% isn’t even cable because it’s on my office TV which is on an antenna. We get about 20 channels for free over the air here, including ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, etc so even at the basic $40 rate it’s a waste… the sole reason I pay for cable is Golden Knights hockey games but now that I have ESPN+ and a VPN I really have no idea why I still pay a cable bill.

I get it.

I was doing the same thing when I finally dropped cable a good while ago but to be fair, I would pick up YouTube TV every year for the college football season as I need ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, the ACC network and sometimes the SEC network and/or ESPN News to be able to watch all my teams’ games. Don't think I am going to bother this year.

Now if they ever dump ALL their sports programming on ESPN+ I will sign up immediately.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes, but the difference is it's a free service. Most people don't mind ads with the base price being free. Now if Disney wants an ad based plan. Make it free and premium content doesn't come to it for 9 to 12 months or something like that.

This isn't just a Disney issue though, again all streamers have or are moving to ad tiers. You'll have FAST providers like Tubi or YouTube which are Free Ad based. And you'll have premium services like D+, Max, Prime, Apple+, etc. (as mentioned earlier even Prime and Apple+ are considering adding or testing ad tiers) that'll offer both ad based and non-ad based tiers for a sub fee.

In my opinion I see almost no chance Disney or any other premium streamer switching to or adding a FAST offering.

People have been saying this for a long time. There's zero chance they make it harder to churn. When churn becomes a problem that's when the yearly special comes into play. They might lock out retuning subscribers from getting a promo, but they won't make it harder to cancel than sign up again.

Same thing was said about Netflix never having an ad tier or never preventing password sharing. Its claimed it has zero chance of happening until it happens.

There will be a point where churn is dealt with as subs growth becomes very minimal, we're almost getting to that point in some markets like the US.