Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I watch D+ a lot but the price is already reaching my breaking point, I’m on a combo plan with D+ (no commercials), ESPN+ and Hulu (with commercials) and I think I’m at $15, if they offer that again I’ll renew but if they make me switch to the current no commercial plan ($20) it’s going to be 50/50 whether I cancel or not.

The ironic thing is I watch a ton of old stuff on D+ (as background while cleaning, working on the computer, etc) and I own 90% of it on Blu-ray and DVD, I’m paying for the convenience more than anything, at $20 a month I’ll get up and put in a bluray.

Well Bob ain’t subtle…

Already said his next great idea…
Bundled service at $30 or more a
Month…with ads

Another $10-$20 to “lightning lane”
The ads

Already said it. Money is a problem.


People round here REALLY think Bambi is worth a lot…

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I just love that with one push of a button on my TV remote and I can instantly cancel the service for months at a time. Then push one button on my remote TV, and I sign back up for another month or two. Then... goodbye.

That's the one big mistake I think they all made with streaming. I believe the first streaming services like Netflix and Prime did it to get away from paying banks of phone operators to hassle with you for 20+ minutes at a time if you want to cancel after being on hold for half an hour. It was cheaper and saved labor to make it instant service options online, but now they're screwed. No going back, either.

I will never, never, never get it through my pea-sized and gin-addled brain how Disney+ was ever supposed to make money for them.

It can make money…but never that much and NOT buy reducing spend on new content.

Netflix learned the hard way years ago…can’t do it without new flashy toys. So they dumped billions into content.

And Disney is no different. They want people to pay $30+ a month to watch draft kings and life alert ads…for 5 hours of programming to one or 2 shows every year to 18 months?


How stupid are we…really?

 

[Disney Irish]

Which is 90s cable…and people hated it and have been weened off ads for 20 years

Easy to cancel…one swipe…

Doesn’t require being home on a Tuesday for the Comcast guy to climb a pole

And yet all services either have an ad tier or will be adding one soon. And if you don't want ads, well pay a higher fee and you get no ads.

And so you got a choice, stick with dying linear cable or switch to ad-based streaming. So welcome back to the 90s, the era of streaming for free or with small fees with no ads ain't coming back.

 

[BrianLo]

Semi related to this topic, but I didn't want to run the little mermaid movie thread further off topic.

I think it's no coincidence Bob was renewed 'today'. I expect something positive out of the quarterly results. I actually didn't think they would be very good, they may not be, but I wonder if there will be a "D+ will be profitable next quarter" type announcement.

He has to have some number or something he's looking at internally from this past quarters results to hang his hat on. Or maybe they simply didn't want to be asked about the successor in the next quarterly call.

 

[Jedijax719]

And yet all services either have an ad tier or will be adding one soon. And if you don't want ads, well pay a higher fee and you get no ads.

And so you got a choice, stick with dying linear cable or switch to ad-based streaming. So welcome back to the 90s, the era of streaming for free or with small fees with no ads ain't coming back.

And for the price of one cable package you can get at least 4 or 5 no-ads streaming services.

 

[TP2000]

Semi related to this topic, but I didn't want to run the little mermaid movie thread further off topic.

I think it's no coincidence Bob was renewed 'today'. I expect something positive out of the quarterly results. I actually didn't think they would be very good, they may not be, but I wonder if there will be a "D+ will be profitable next quarter" type announcement.

None of Burbank's big summer box office flops will be fully reflected in the next earning's call, as it only runs through June.

Little Mermaid will be tagged as merely "underwhelming overseas", but Elemental will get a pass since it only had two weeks of the 3rd quarter to reflect upon, legs or no legs. Indy 5 didn't even exist in quarter 3, so it will be solely a quarter 4 story in October.

As for Disney+, aren't they eternally saying that Disney+ will eventually be profitable in future quarters? That's kind of their schtick now.

They might have seen an impact to Parks attendance by May/June as per the media reports of emptier than usual parks on both coasts. But even then, like Indy 5, the lagging parks attendance this summer won't fully show up until the October earning's call on quarter 4.

 

[BrianLo]

As for Disney+, aren't they eternally saying that Disney+ will eventually be profitable in future quarters? That's kind of their schtick now.

Well they've been saying 2024 since 2019. Moving it up to Q4 2023 with a definitive projection would be something.

Parks will be fine regardless of domestic, Shanghai wasn't open last year during Q3.

This quarter won't be very good with content write downs and subscriber losses. I'm just surprised now specifically was the extension and not the Fall. I'm probably seeing things that aren't there though. Just conscientious of internal quarter data would have just come to their attention, presumably.

 

[TP2000]

Well they've been saying 2024 since 2019. Moving it up to Q4 2023 with a definitive projection would be something.

Parks will be fine regardless of domestic, Shanghai wasn't open last year during Q3.

This quarter won't be very good with content write downs and subscriber losses. I'm just surprised now specifically was the extension and not the Fall. I'm probably seeing things that aren't there though. Just conscientious of internal quarter data would have just come to their attention, presumably.

True. But it just seems they've been saying "soon" about Disney+ profitability since.... forever.

As for the Parks, I don't see much evidence on the Disneyland boards that attendance is down that drastically in California this summer. It appears to only be a WDW story, while Disneyland attendance is just noted to be kind of "soft" and "mild". Plus, SoCal just hit County Fair season, which is a huge thing culturally there, so the locals are staying away as they always do in July and August and heading to the beaches or to the mountains or to the County Fairs for their entertainment. But that's a summer story decades old for Disneyland, and so it's up to all the out of state and overseas tourists to fill up Disneyland for the next 6 weeks.

This year's theme for the great Orange County Fair is "Happy Together". Sounds groovy and fun. This year's theme for the San Diego County Fair is "Get Out There!" which kind of sounds threatening, but it's San Diego so when you say it with a surfer accent it's fine. Either way, I will be attending at least one of those fairs this year. Perhaps both.

Disneyland will come roaring back to life in September as it always does for HalloweenTime.

I no longer own Disney stock, but I'm going to make a point of paying attention to this next earning's call just to hear what they say about the Parks. As for the movies, I already can tell how that's going to end for them for Fiscal '23, and it's lousy. But the Parks are still kind of unknown just how soft attendance really is. Anecdotal, or real?

 

[BrianLo]

True. But it just seems they've been saying "soon" about Disney+ profitability since.... forever.

That's being a tad disingenuous. Iger has always said 2024. Never "soon". 2024 before the launch. Even after the launch turned out wildly successful he still told investors 2024 on the Q2 2020 conference call. I agree that we've been talking about it forever, but the projection is his own and he has even had the gall to reaffirm 2024 on his return.

Snarkily this about the only date he has actually stuck to...

I agree though Disneyland is probably fine. Which can cover for WDW like always. The DVC even did gangbusters last quarter at Disneyland.

 

[TP2000]

That's being a tad disingenuous. Iger has always said 2024. Never "soon". 2024 before the launch. Even after the launch turned out wildly successful he still told investors 2024 on the Q2 2020 conference call. I agree that we've been talking about it forever, but the projection is his own and he has even had the gall to reaffirm 2024 on his return.

Oh, okay, I trust you on that. If he's been long term claiming 2024 is "The Year For Disney+", then that works for me.

Do you think they'll make it? I just can't get it to pencil out, as their production budgets have yet to be slashed in half like they need to be.

This summer is almost too glaring of an example. By Labor Day, they will have lost at least a $300 Million combined on their 4 summer movies.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And yet all services either have an ad tier or will be adding one soon. And if you don't want ads, well pay a higher fee and you get no ads.

And so you got a choice, stick with dying linear cable or switch to ad-based streaming. So welcome back to the 90s, the era of streaming for free or with small fees with no ads ain't coming back.

Who said anything about “sticking with linear cable”

The point is a wireless router allows easy access to a wide range of competition/other offerings

That never existed with cable…which is why you were largely held hostage and had no competition/other options

Seriously…if you’re not actually 25…were you in a coma prior to the last 25 years?
The comments have zero context based in history.

 

[BrianLo]

Do you think they'll make it?

I never bet against Bob's ability to squeeze his existing consumers. If he can't get costs down, the subscription price will go up shortly.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I never bet against Bob's ability to squeeze his existing consumers. If he can't get costs down, the subscription price will go up shortly.

He was ordered to slash costs by that little uprising 6 months ago (how soon the children forget?) and already said they’re slapping their streams together and jacking the price.

Please, no one p!zz me off and act surprised, please?

 

[TP2000]

Seriously…if you’re not actually 25…we’re you in a coma prior to the last 25 years?
The comments have zero context based in history.

I don't have too much to add....

Other than I still remember my AOL password and still have a CD-ROM worth 100 free hours. Where do I turn that in?

Also, Amazon was selling 4K firesticks for 25 bucks today for Prime Day.

The world has truly changed.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't have too much to add....

Other than I still remember my AOL password and still have a CD-ROM worth 100 free hours. Where do I turn that in?

Also, Amazon was selling 4K firesticks for 25 bucks today for Prime Day.

The world has truly changed.

…I’m saving my compuserve for a rainy day after I get that upgrade to a 26.6K modem

 

[TP2000]

…I’m saving my compuserve for a rainy day after I get that upgrade to a 26.6K modem

I can top that. I made arrangements for my first alt.disney.disneyland meet up in the Hub via an old boyfriend's WebTV account.

Even before Monica Lewinsky started working the fax machine, among other things, in the West Wing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh, okay, I trust you on that. If he's been long term claiming 2024 is "The Year For Disney+", then that works for me.

Do you think they'll make it? I just can't get it to pencil out, as their production budgets have yet to be slashed in half like they need to be.

This summer is almost too glaring of an example. By Labor Day, they will have lost at least a $300 Million combined on their 4 summer movies.

They’re gonna lose $200 on Raiders of the 1980’s blockbuster alone

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can top that. I made arrangements for my first alt.disney.disneyland meet up in the Hub via an old boyfriend's WebTV account.

Even before Monica Lewinsky started working the fax machine, among other things, in the West Wing.

Did they dust the fax machine for prints and black light it too?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That's being a tad disingenuous. Iger has always said 2024. Never "soon". 2024 before the launch. Even after the launch turned out wildly successful he still told investors 2024 on the Q2 2020 conference call. I agree that we've been talking about it forever, but the projection is his own and he has even had the gall to reaffirm 2024 on his return.

Snarkily this about the only date he has actually stuck to...

I agree though Disneyland is probably fine. Which can cover for WDW like always. The DVC even did gangbusters last quarter at Disneyland.

“2024” should be renamed “year of the unicorn”

The numbers don’t work out.

But refresh my memory as to why they claimed 2024?

If I recall - it was a hint at subscriber numbers that all ready happened with no profit and infrastructure costs that don’t actually exist?

…If anyone believes talent/content cost was gonna drop…I got a bridge to sell you.

 

[Disney Irish]

Who said anything about “sticking with linear cable”

The point is a wireless router allows easy access to a wide range of competition/other offerings

That never existed with cable…which is why you were largely held hostage and had no competition/other options

Seriously…if you’re not actually 25…were you in a coma prior to the last 25 years?
The comments have zero context based in history.

The point is you either stick with cable/linear or you switch to streaming. But either way you're going to get ads or if moving to streaming you pay a higher price to get no ads. There is no third alternative at this point. Even if a third alternative comes along it won't take long before advertisers find a way to entice it to have ads.

So yeah you have more competition with streaming and can switch among them easily, all of which pretty much have ads now or will soon. Want D+, oops you got ads now or pay a higher price for no ads. Want Netflix, oops you got ads now or pay a higher price for no ads. Want Max, oops you got ads now or you pay a higher price for no ads. Even YouTube, you get ads, or pay for Premium to get no ads. Heck there are reports that even Amazon and Apple are looking to add an ad tier to Prime and Apple+.

Again the era of streaming with low fees and no ads is over. The sleeping dragon has awoken and streaming providers have rolled out the ads to increase revenue, no turning back now.