Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Indy_UK]

Disney Plus movies don't really make profit. All they do is help prevent some people from cancelling existing subscriptions. Spending $150-$200 million on a Disney Plus movie is not worth it at all.

Hocus Pocus 2 could have made a lot of money at the box office due to the demand for it, but that potential was squandered with a direct to streaming release.

I think Hocus Pocus 2 would have actually done OK at the box office. You can tell the much smaller budget used by the sets but I think it was a decent movie.

They need to do more of these live action movies on a smaller scale.

 

[celluloid]

I did not say mostly only adults… I but I do think there were more adult without kids willing to go to those then other animated films… also I think there were more older teens likely to go to those then other animated films… I do believe it will be harder to reach families with younger kids these days as they will consider the expense and realize it is much cheaper to wait till it’s on Disney Plus… my guess is that may be one of the harder demographics to reach… as a movie goer who only has to be pay for my wife and I… I still find movies are about the cheapest form of entertainment when leaving the house

By the way as an adult without children I am not saying adults can not enjoy some of those other animated films…I am unabashedly am a Disney fan

The entire family still shows up when it is worth it. The entire family demo showed up for Mario plenty. Mario would not have been a hit like it was with people not bringing the kids as much as they used to.

Spider-verse same thing. Barbie, while the innuendo and satire went over a lot of their heads, plenty of children brought to those as well.

There is not a persona shift. For example, even as a horror and some fans who are near the 18 to 20 age from when the indie game first game out, Five Night's at Freddy's audience group that showed up to make that movie a smash hit at home and in theaters was 8-11. It was a huge for a modern theater horror movie. Younger than preteen. Mario has cross generational appeal.

People still bring their kids aplenty to the theaters.


Some people need to realize realize, while streaming can make a dent, and while the medium is not exactly the same, the buyer's process is. Realize the theater box office is going to end up yet another near billion from last year, and billions since 2020. 2020-2023 are three years of progressive rise, not lowering for three years. It is not going to be the way of the dodo.

We don't need to presume why a certain studio or medium's woes must be as bad as everyone else's as much as some people are.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Back in the “good ol days” the sequels were all direct to video releases, now they are billed as tentpole films, and it’s worked in many instances… might be time to make them direct to streaming and adjust the budgets accordingly.

D+ would be an amazing place to have sequels, prequels, side stories, backstories, etc but Disney seems determined to try to make all those stories box office hits (with budgets to match their expectations).

I think that well is pretty much poisoned…

But I know…I’m totally wrong

…let’s spin the wheel and see how it plays anyway?

 

[celluloid]

Bingo!

And this is the perfect time for my monthly post about how my tiny, pea-sized brain will never be able to understand how Disney+ will ever make any money. TV budgets must remain small for TV shows to work. Movie budgets are bigger, and Disney's budgets are the biggest of them all! ($250 for The Little Mermaid remake, $300 Million for Indy 5, $200 Million for most everything else in 2023, etc.)

So spending bloated movie sized budgets on TV shows is a recipe for financial disaster. Also known as "Disney+".

Heck, in my day you had to wait at least three or four years before they put popular movies on TV. I remember Airport from 1970 didn't show up on TV until just a year or two before Airport '75 came out. And we all stayed home to watch it because it was a big, fancy movie like Airport! It felt almost naughty to not have to buy a movie ticket to see it.

This brings up another point. The industry changed so fast but the customer's did not. It is overwhelming how dispensable entertainment is these days. Disney Plus is the definition of quantity over quality. Besides Marvel and Star Wars saturation, what new show is Disney going to be able to keep spending 200 million a season on? And where will the money come from?

Disney Plus was like the kid who got a magic kit for a gift and can show you a bunch of expensive magic tricks, but did not focus on practicing and performing the lower budget tricks so well that they entertain. All the reveal is done, the main hype is coming to an end. What now? How now?

Actually, that is a lot of the company's problem, parks included.

 

[el_super]

Not at all, nor did the brand reputation and polarization of those studios turn a significant amount of the global audience away from seeing them.

That’s why we look at the last couple years’ worth of Disney branded films to see the global impact, not a single outlier.

Movies all over are failing. How much is going to be lost on Flower Moon or Napoleon? And yet you are trying hard to keep the narrative on "Disney is not telling the right stories" and ignoring that this isn't a Disney only problem.

And we are back to blaming the audience or outing some social prejudice!

No, we're back to pretending this is only a Disney problem. It's not.

 

[celluloid]

Movies all over are failing. How much is going to be lost on Flower Moon or Napoleon? And yet you are trying hard to keep the narrative on "Disney is not telling the right stories" and ignoring that this isn't a Disney only problem.




No, we're back to pretending this is only a Disney problem. It's not.

So false.
You must be really late. It is massively agreed upon now that it is a bigger problem for Disney than others. Even some of the posters who use to not admit that now do.

Others are in rough waters and most have steered the course well. It was a Great year for many studios and partners. It was not all or nothing. You should look into what market share means. Theaters are up again. We can go by the last three years to see they have gone back up every year since 2020. So it is not like Covid accelerated some process.

Toho studios and Angel Studios even benefitted from all of this.


It can't possibly be that Disney's brand perception is really awful right now. Nope. It can't. Even those there are results and data for that very thing and Bob Iger is on high damage control.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

In no way, shape, or form is he “inventing” it. It’s completely predictable.

You only get half credit because you only read half

 

[el_super]

You must be really late. It is massively agreed upon now that it is a bigger problem for Disney than others. Even some of the posters who use to not admit that now do.

Of course, the box office fall off is a bigger problem for Disney, because Disney generally released move movies than other studios. So more trouble at the box office = more trouble for Disney.

It makes absolutely no sense to keep trying to pin this on Disney's "social messaging" when they aren't the only studio having problems selling movies to audiences, but are uniquely described as the only one engaging in the messaging. It also makes no sense to keep insisting that the messaging is sinking movies, when other movies with the same messaging are doing well at the box office.

There is another cause for the drop off in box office numbers not related to messaging, but some people can't move on from that as the cause.

Others are in rough waters and most have steered the course well. It was a Great year for many studios and partners.

So what do you think is the cause for the non-Disney movies that have struggled hard at the box office?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I did not say mostly only adults… I but I do think there were more adult without kids willing to go to those then other animated films… also I think there were more older teens likely to go to those then other animated films… I do believe it will be harder to reach families with younger kids these days as they will consider the expense and realize it is much cheaper to wait till it’s on Disney Plus… my guess is that may be one of the harder demographics to reach… as a movie goer who only has to be pay for my wife and I… I still find movies are about the cheapest form of entertainment when leaving the house

By the way as an adult without children I am not saying adults can not enjoy some of those other animated films…I am unabashedly am a Disney fan

Mario didn’t make $1.5 bil off just kids with headphones on…

They made it off of 40 year old dads who grew up with it and their kids who also play it.

Kinda what Disney tried with Star Wars…and basically dynamited the entrance to the mine before they could really empty it

 

[celluloid]

Of course, the box office fall off is a bigger problem for Disney, because Disney generally released move movies than other studios. So more trouble at the box office = more trouble for Disney.

It makes absolutely no sense to keep trying to pin this on Disney's "social messaging"

Whoa. Stop right there. Who is still doing that? Not many here if any. Maybe one or two are?

Certainly I did not.

Also, no the box office tide is rising again. Look at the amount of movie releases from 2020-2023. We are still not back to how many movies a year are released in 2019. If they were, guess what, the trend shows....yep.

And Disney, if their movies would not have bombed as hard as they did. If three of them would have been as succesful as they should have...yep.

Disney has a branding issue.

Other studios have their box office storms. But movies were not falling all over the place. Movies bombed before the pandemic, and they will bomb after. Things are still rising.

I get that it hurts a fan's soul to believe that Disney's brand is hurting and the company is not the 90s, or 2010s anymore when it felt like so much box office were on the horizon and the brand was strong. People have warned of resting of laurels for a long time. It is not like it just happened this year. You are just seeing the increased results as time marches on. It takes work to correct.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I don't see a scenario where Maleficent 3 makes money. Not after how the last movie performed.

To say nothing of what would be the point of a second sequel.

 

[Tha Realest]

Disney Plus movies don't really make profit. All they do is help prevent some people from cancelling existing subscriptions. Spending $150-$200 million on a Disney Plus movie is not worth it at all.

Hocus Pocus 2 could have made a lot of money at the box office due to the demand for it, but that potential was squandered with a direct to streaming release.

Those are the approximate budgets. For Peter Pan & Wendy, and the Zemeckis Pinocchio movies

 

[Casper Gutman]

So false.
You must be really late. It is massively agreed upon now that it is a bigger problem for Disney than others. Even some of the posters who use to not admit that now do.

Others are in rough waters and most have steered the course well. It was a Great year for many studios and partners. It was not all or nothing. You should look into what market share means. Theaters are up again. We can go by the last three years to see they have gone back up every year since 2020. So it is not like Covid accelerated some process.

Toho studios and Angel Studios even benefitted from all of this.


It can't possibly be that Disney's brand perception is really awful right now. Nope. It can't. Even those there are results and data for that very thing and Bob Iger is on high damage control.

It was not a “great year” for any studio and none has “steered the waters well.” That’s delusional.

What do you think “market share” means, exactly? Because Disney is second, but it doesn’t mean Disneys doing awesome…

To state the utterly obvious once more, every studio is being buffeted by changing market forces none of them fully understands. Disney’s “all tentpole” strategy, coupled with some unique challenges, has seen them hit harder than many. This does NOT mean they are the ONLY ones affected. The success stories are very limited - Mario, Op, Barbie, Gaurdians 3, Five Nights, Spider-Verse - and the big disappointments are myriad - Marvels, Wish, Dungeons & Dragons, Fast X, Renfeld, Flower Moon, Napoleon, Transformers, M:I, TMNT, Flash, Indy, Ruby Gillman, etc.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Whoa. Stop right there. Who is still doing that? Not many here if any. Maybe one or two are?

Certainly I did not.

Also, no the box office tide is rising again. Look at the amount of movie releases from 2020-2023. We are still not back to how many movies a year are released in 2019. If they were, guess what, the trend shows....yep.

And Disney, if their movies would not have bombed as hard as they did. If three of them would have been as succesful as they should have...yep.

Disney has a branding issue.

Other studios have their box office storms. But movies were not falling all over the place. Movies bombed before the pandemic, and they will bomb after. Things are still rising.

I get that it hurts a fan's soul to believe that Disney's brand is hurting and the company is not the 90s, or 2010s anymore when it felt like so much box office were on the horizon and the brand was strong. People have warned of resting of laurels for a long time. It is not like it just happened this year. You are just seeing the increased results as time marches on. It takes work to correct.

…after reading this…I really feel like a goal score should be sounding or something

YESSSSSSSS!!!!

 

[CinematicFusion]

It was not a “great year” for any studio and none has “steered the waters well.” That’s delusional.

What do you think “market share” means, exactly? Because Disney is second, but it doesn’t mean Disneys doing awesome…

To state the utterly obvious once more, every studio is being buffeted by changing market forces none of them fully understands. Disney’s “all tentpole” strategy, coupled with some unique challenges, has seen them hit harder than many. This does NOT mean they are the ONLY ones affected. The success stories are very limited - Mario, Op, Barbie, Gaurdians 3, Five Nights, Spider-Verse - and the big disappointments are myriad - Marvels, Wish, Dungeons & Dragons, Fast X, Renfeld, Flower Moon, Napoleon, Transformers, M:I, TMNT, Flash, Indy, Ruby Gillman, etc.

and add that Disney's movies have been average to bad across all platforms. Eventually that starts to hurt the bottom line and the paying customer goes somewhere else.
Wish is a big example of this. Average movie, nothing special but it would have performed well in 2018.
Now after disappointment after disappointment, crowds looked elsewhere.... and during peak movie going season.

 

[Casper Gutman]

and add that Disney's movies have been average to bad across all platforms. Eventually that starts to hurt the bottom line and the paying customer goes somewhere else.
Wish is a big example of this. Average movie, nothing special but it would have performed well in 2018.
Now after disappointment after disappointment, crowds looked elsewhere.... and during peak movie going season.

You think Strange World had that kind of effect? Because that’s the only earlier Disney animated flop one could point to. If you grouped in Pixar, you could also include Lightyear, but those hardly seem sufficient to establish a pattern.

Here’s a conclusion no one’s going to like - in terms of animated films, an IP has become much MORE important. Original films like Wish, Strange World, Migration, and Ruby Gillman bombed hard while even an original people liked, Elemental, had to demonstrate legendary legs to make a profit. The winners were IP-driven films - Spider-Verse, Minions 2, and most of all Mario, perhaps the biggest untapped IP on the planet. In that environment, Frozen 3 and 4 are the only logical way for Disney to go.

It’s sad to see the last genre that regularly produced original blockbusters collapse, despite the shortsighted glee of many here.

 

[el_super]

Whoa. Stop right there. Who is still doing that?

And then immediately after..

Disney has a branding issue.

I must have missed the part where you answered the question: why are the other studios having such a rough time of it?

What about Napoleon or Flower Moon? They both cost $200+ million to make and have made back half that so far. Does Apple having a "branding" issue? Sony? Paramount? Is that the problem?

 

[CinematicFusion]

Here’s a conclusion no one’s going to like - in terms of animated films, an IP has become much MORE important. Original films like Wish, Strange World, Migration, and Ruby Gillman bombed hard while even an original people liked, Elemental, had to demonstrate legendary legs to make a profit. The winners were IP-driven films - Spider-Verse, Minions 2, and most of all Mario, perhaps the biggest untapped IP on the planet. In that environment, Frozen 3 and 4 are the only logical way for Disney to go.

It’s sad to see the last genre that regularly produced original blockbusters collapse, despite the shortsighted glee of many here.

Disney needs to reduce production cost to around 100 million for animation, just like Mario. Barbie cost 145 million to make.
Disney needs to stay within that range.

297 million to do a remake of Mermaid is a joke. After marketing expense, the movie made 9 million at the box office. Movie was 150 million over budget.

 

[celluloid]

And then immediately after..



I must have missed the part where you answered the question: why are the other studios having such a rough time of it?

What about Napoleon or Flower Moon? They both cost $200+ million to make and have made back half that so far. Does Apple having a "branding" issue? Sony? Paramount? Is that the problem?

Well that shows me you not knowing of marketing.
Me saying a branding issue does not mean I said anything on Disney's "social messaging" that is a quote you put up after responding to me. I never used that term. I have openly stated all movies have messages, it is part of a story. How well it is told is different. Read my earlier post in this thread referencing Emily Dickenson's famous quote on the subject.
Disney's branding issue is because their standards of storytelling have slacked, declined by degrees and rested on laurels for years. Like your buddy Bob Iger, who in damage control even admits there has been bad quality storytelling giving in to quantity.

I did not bother answering your second part because it was a really crappy question. You want me to tell you why some other movies bombed? Movies bombed before and after the pandemic. It is always a risk.

Disney's constant failures have shown brand rejection. The critics and audiences, even those who went to see it say Wish is not up to standard. The Marvels, Lightyear, Strange World, Turning Red all consistently meh and even the love for some marvel is an oversaturated exhausted market.

Why is Wish going to end up with half the daily performance of Napoleon, a big budget Rated R movie that is currently one of one of this year's disappointments?

Could it be, brand rejection and continuing that it is not very good? Or are the majority of critics and general audience lying?

The brand is bad because many of their films have been bad and the perception, and going by recent reviews in masses of the latest film, the promise and experience is still bad. That castle in front of the movie does not mean much to people right now the way it did twenty or even five years ago. It can change, but it takes work.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Disney needs to reduce production cost to around 100 million for animation, just like Mario. Barbie cost 145 million to make.
Disney needs to stay within that range.

297 million to do a remake of Mermaid is a joke. After marketing expense, the movie made 9 million at the box office. Movie was 150 million over budget.

Mario is bargain basement animation. No sane person should want Disney (or Dreamworks) to sink to that level.