Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[brideck]

I sincerely thought Disney was going to keep it in the 4105 theaters till the end if its run and allow the money to continue to trickle in..

I think the only screen guarantees that are locked in are for the first couple weeks of release, but I've never been in the theater business so I don't know for sure.

It'll definitely still keep a good amount for awhile and the trickling will continue, but my ceiling projection at this point would be something like $215m/$440m. It is slowly gaining ground on Quantumania, but I'm not sure there will be enough runway to pass it in the end. That one basically broke even, so that would put this one in about the same ballpark.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I think the only screen guarantees that are locked in are for the first couple weeks of release, but I've never been in the theater business so I don't know for sure.

It'll definitely still keep a good amount for awhile and the trickling will continue, but my ceiling projection at this point would be something like $215m/$440m. It is slowly gaining ground on Quantumania, but I'm not sure there will be enough runway to pass it in the end. That one basically broke even, so that would put this one in about the same ballpark.

Well, the access media tells us Disney's budget was 180M. The access media also tells us total cost to make and market is (budget * 2.5), therefore, 180 * 2.5 = 450 , so there is still a chance of a break even at the box office.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

Well, the access media tells us Disney's budget was 180M. The access media also tells us total cost to make and market is (budget * 2.5), therefore, 180 * 2.5 = 450 , so there is still a chance of a break even at the box office.

That's exactly right. We should be solidly in breakeven territory assuming the budget is correct. I know some people have expressed skepticism about the budget because other Marvel projects have been revised upwards. The Multiverse of Madness production budget incident stands out as quite egregious... Still, using any other number is pure speculation at this point. The $180 million number is all that we have to go on. So, breakeven seems totally doable.

Converting March 2023 dollars to January 2025 dollars gets Quantamania's gross to ~$500 million. Captain America 4 probably won't reach either the inflation adjusted or unadjusted gross of ~$476 million. Fortunately, Captain America 4's production teams were frugal compared to the $276 million net spend on Quantamania. That ~$100 million gap between the production budgets makes a big difference.

Interestingly, it could be argued that the Ant Man and the Wasp franchise is as strong (or even stronger) as the Captain America franchise. While we don't have the final gross yet, Captain America 4 will probably land just above $400 million. That's well below the ~$500 million inflation adjusted Quantamania gross.

Maybe Paul Rudd didn't do so bad after all!

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh boy Cap is losing theaters! Down to 3800 theaters.... I think its the beginning of the end here.

Its normal for a movie to start losing theaters after the first couple weeks, Cap4 has been in theaters for 3 weeks so its expected to lose theaters as new movies open up. Its only losing 320 theaters, so really not much anyways.

This weekend will be the first week that Cap 4 has any competition with Mickey 17 opening up. Though I don't expect it to be much competition, it'll still have a wide release with over 3800 theaters as well.

On an interesting note, MCU alum Mark Ruffalo also stars in Mickey 17.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Its normal for a movie to start losing theaters after the first couple weeks, Cap4 has been in theaters for 3 weeks so its expected to lose theaters as new movies open up. Its only losing 320 theaters, so really not much anyways.

This weekend will be the first week that Cap 4 has any competition with Mickey 17 opening up. Though I don't expect it to be much competition, it'll still have a wide release with over 3800 theaters as well.

On an interesting note, MCU alum Mark Ruffalo also stars in Mickey 17.

I need to re check but I seem to remember Mufasa holding on to a lot of theaters throughout its run.

 

[Disney Irish]

I need to re check but I seem to remember Mufasa holding on to a lot of theaters throughout its run.

Mufasa started to lose its theater count after the 3rd week also, dropping from 4100 to 3925.

And its not like Cap4 is losing a lot of theaters, its still in what is considered a wide release with 3800 theaters. So lets not make this out to be something its not.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

MSN

Disney cancels UK Snow White premiere…

This popped up on my MSN feed, I googled it and other sites are reporting it also, no big name sites though so I don’t know if it’s true or just circular reporting based on one source.

 

[Disney Irish]

MSN

Disney cancels UK Snow White premiere…

This popped up on my MSN feed, I googled it and other sites are reporting it also, no big name sites though so I don’t know if it’s true or just circular reporting based on one source.

Its funny because they just had the Japan premiere last night, which from what I saw was a success as it went off without any drama. So it would be very interesting if they cancelled the UK premiere completely and not rescheduled it.

 

[BrianLo]

I actually agree with some of her criticisms about land placement. There's no need to get into another argument about Fantasy Springs- it's been done to death and this is the wrong thread anyway. Still, you're right about the meandering writing style and questionable underlying argument. She needs an editor or someone to ask her whether the article deserves to exist in the first place. Her logic is tenuous at best. There are also dead links in an article that came out less than a year ago. It substantiates your point about reusing content from older pieces. And of course she doesn't present counter examples of people who actually like Fantasy Springs. Someone reading the article would think everyone hates the land. Not so!

I can see why she's not your (or anyone's) favorite author, even if I agree with her sentiments about Tokyo Disney Sea.

I had actually written a response that Fantasy Springs is by no means that solid of a land, but didn't want to run the thread off topic too much. It's more of a culdesac of facades if anything. Some great attractions and little else substantive. But her thesis was premised on some sort of financial crisis of confidence, which is kind of hilarious. Even more in hindsight.

Of course, I, unlike her, have actually been. Which you think would be sort of relevant if you wanted to pump out a never ending essay of some quality. It is clear there wasn't editorial oversight of her content. An editor would also start to pick out the redundancy pretty quickly.

 

[Tha Realest]

No it proves exactly what I was trying to say, on a percentage basis Gutfeld (and Fox News in general) skews older than younger compared to other late night shows. From a raw number stand point yes it slightly gets more, but that really doesn't matter to me as I really wasn't looking at ratings from an advertisers point of view anyways that is something that others brought up.

You were responding to an comment that explicitly mentioned the importance of advertising - “Tell that to the network salesmen trying to sell airtime on shows that are losing their audience share” - and then used terms conventionally used in the advertisement and marketing space

Key demographic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I have to ask - what is your point in all of this, other than being dishonestly and unpleasantly argumentative?

 

[Disney Irish]

You were responding to an comment that explicitly mentioned the importance of advertising - “Tell that to the network salesmen trying to sell airtime on shows that are losing their audience share” - and then used terms conventionally used in the advertisement and marketing space

Key demographic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I have to ask - what is your point in all of this, other than being dishonestly and unpleasantly argumentative?

As another poster brought up these are such low numbers anyways for key demos that advertisers aren’t looking at these shows anyways in any major way for ad buys.

As for what is the point of all this, it’s a discussion that started with the Oscars and moved into Late Night.

 

[TalkingHead]

Snow White may luck out since there hasn’t been a big family release in a while. Could imagine it overperforming on that basis, but it’s also believable that families may not want to spend the $$$ to see it in theaters. Feels like a good test to see how big budget family fare does outside of holidays and summer.

My sense is if Snow White does poorly/meh, the likelihood of Stitch doing big numbers in May goes up considerably.

 

[DKampy]

I say that and according to my viewing history, we apparently saw Parasite for the second time on Mar 15th.

Speaking of Parasite…. I wonder how much more box office it would have added to it’s gross if it were not for the pandemic….it grossed over 53 million…..that is a great take for international feature in the US market already…theater going was already slowing down with people anticipating Covid shutting us down in February and it was a best picture front runner at the Oscar’s witch it won

 

[Farerb]

Snow White may luck out since there hasn’t been a big family release in a while. Could imagine it overperforming on that basis, but it’s also believable that families may not want to spend the $$$ to see it in theaters. Feels like a good test to see how big budget family fare does outside of holidays and summer.

My sense is if Snow White does poorly/meh, the likelihood of Stitch doing big numbers in May goes up considerably.

The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie will be released next week and it's fantastic.

 

[DKampy]

The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie will be released next week and it's fantastic.

Next week…. Wow… I had no idea…and I go to the theater weekly and keep up with the release schedule….WB must of done awful on promotion

 

[brideck]

Next week…. Wow… I had no idea…and I go to the theater weekly and keep up with the release schedule….WB must of done awful on promotion

There's a bank of 3 posters for it in our nearest AMC, but I've literally never seen a trailer* for it -- granted I haven't seen Paddington or Dog Man in theaters. On YT, it looks like it's gotten 5m views in 2 weeks. By contrast, Mickey 17 (also WB) has gotten 22m for its 2nd trailer released 6 weeks ago.

*20th Century's The Amateur, on the other hand... Man, we get a trailer for that before nearly every movie regardless of genre. Not that that's translated to online views at all -- only 11m in 16 weeks.

 

[DKampy]

There's a bank of 3 posters for it in our nearest AMC, but I've literally never seen a trailer* for it -- granted I haven't seen Paddington or Dog Man in theaters.

I saw exactly one trailer for it about a month ago…. But I had assumed it was far off… as it felt like a teaser as opposed to a full trailer

On YT, it looks like it's gotten 5m views in 2 weeks. By contrast, Mickey 17 (also WB) has gotten 22m for its 2nd trailer released 6 weeks ago.

I have not seen it yet, but I am rooting for Mickey 17….It would be great if big studios would take more chances on original

 

[Chi84]

I saw exactly one trailer for it about a month ago…. But I had assumed it was far off… as it felt like a teaser as opposed to a full trailer

I have not seen it yet, but I am rooting for Mickey 17….It would be great if big studios would take more chances on original

The book is Mickey 7 but I guess that wasn’t enough gruesome deaths for a movie

 

[Disney Irish]

The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie will be released next week and it's fantastic.

The movie has been pushed back a number of times, as it was originally a streaming exclusive movie, so doubt many know its actually being released next week here in the US. There has also been very little actual advertisement for it, as its not being released by WB but Ketchup (as WB gave up the distribution rights last year), so that may have something to do with it. And from what I see its also not getting a whole lot of showings overall, so it'll be interesting to see what it does.

Its also already had its international run, which did very little. So this isn't expected to be a huge movie.

Next week…. Wow… I had no idea…and I go to the theater weekly and keep up with the release schedule….WB must of done awful on promotion

As I mentioned above, its not being released by WB, its being released by Ketchup Entertainment. Which is probably why there isn't a whole lot of advertisement for it, as Ketchup is an independent distributor.

 

[Agent H]

Snow White may luck out since there hasn’t been a big family release in a while. Could imagine it overperforming on that basis, but it’s also believable that families may not want to spend the $$$ to see it in theaters. Feels like a good test to see how big budget family fare does outside of holidays and summer.

My sense is if Snow White does poorly/meh, the likelihood of Stitch doing big numbers in May goes up considerably.

I’ll do anything to make stitch a success. If it means boycotting Snow White then “so mote it be”