Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[el_super]

I don't really care how well one company is doing.

Kind of seems like you do.

Theatrical box office is what this thread is about.

How they compare on any poll is really irrelevant.

Sure. You say it's branding, site one poll that refutes that, then turn around and say that polls don't matter? Ok.

Only box office matters right?

National Review board just named Killers of the Flower Moon to be the best movie of 2023. The Marvels made more money than the "best" movie of the year.

 

[LittleBuford]

Can you show me one? Because common sense would tell you that the math doesn't work. Let's add it up.
*298 was the domestic total. That means take home for Disney was about 178mil.
*International was 271. That would give it a take home of about 135mil. And I'm being generous, with international I've never seen reported at 50% take.
178+135=313
So unless they spent only 70mil on advertising and got the very highest % of both box offices, and was at the low end of the reported budgets, it didn't make it. So I'd love to see these "reliable" numbers from reliable publications. I've been told that before but no one can seem to prove anything. I'd also like to see these number breakdowns that you and a bunch of others seem to reference. Not to prove you wrong, but to be able to properly calculate these things so we can stop arguing about it.

@Casper Gutman may have something different or more authoritative in mind, but these are the figures I remember seeing:

Was The Little Mermaid a Box Office Success?

The Little Mermaid's box office has been analyzed to fit many narratives, but here is a closer look at how the film did at the box office.

movieweb.com

 

[celluloid]

Kind of seems like you do.




Sure. You say it's branding, site one poll that refutes that, then turn around and say that polls don't matter? Ok.

Only box office matters right?

National Review board just named Killers of the Flower Moon to be the best movie of 2023. The Marvels made more money than the "best" movie of the year.

Yeah, you are quoting something critically acclaimed from a review board. Cool!
That is an authority of film making craft? Great! That actually means Apple's brand in the movie business is enhanced according to anyone who holds that authority in esteem. And for that segment who cares about what that group thinks Good for Apple. It is whatever. Apple's brand is irrelevant to Disney's quite honestly. They will have to earn brand trust in the movie business. They are brand new to it.(That is why the term exists) Not sure what your point is. No one ever said other movie studios could not have bombs. Apple went in big and is new at this. Oh no, they had not instant success. Money lost does not equate to brand damaged in itself. Money lost is often the result of. But again, I know how much you understated marketing.
It has nothing to do with Disney's issue. Disney's issue is they are not the recognized company they were in 2018.

Polls are data. What the poll you referenced, shows that Disney has slipped from what they were, further than the recent dip they have had. Brand happens whether you have a poll or not. It is a constant. Brand recognition for Disney is not on the up right now. If you don't believe that, you are really far gone and not paying attention. But if you need a poll, use one of them to see how Disney's placement has dropped. The stock market low of nine years as well that has occured this year. I mean, take your pick.

If you want common sense, note the drop in box office performance. Notice how the general public is not reviewing the films favorably, nor are critics in most recent cases. Notice how people are not even going out to see them.

The theatrical numbers domestically are up, many studios are up. Disney's numbers(where they sit for customer trust and in theaters) are down.


If you think this is a year where the Disney Brand is up in recognition, you ignore facts.

 

[erasure fan1]

@Casper Gutman may have something different or more authoritative in mind, but these are the figures I remember seeing:

Was The Little Mermaid a Box Office Success?

The Little Mermaid's box office has been analyzed to fit many narratives, but here is a closer look at how the film did at the box office.

movieweb.com

That was the article I first responded to. And they do not calculate for theater take. Forbes has the budget at 300mil. I'm just asking that if my formula is wrong, what formula should we be using?

 

[Casper Gutman]

This might be the dumbest thing I have ever read.

Your nostalgia is not history and time moves on without you. Iron Man was never very popular before the MCU.

 

[celluloid]

Your nostalgia is not history and time moves on without you. Iron Man was never very popular before the MCU.

Reletive to the other comic character you mentioned? Yeah, he was still far more popular. Many successful toy lines and comics in the late 80s and early 90s.

There is a reason that after Spidey, Xmen and The Hulk, he was one of the first ones they went to make a big budget movie.

 

[TsWade2]

Yoo hoo: https://x.com/Luiz_Fernando_J/status/1732500237376172346?s=20 Wish just beat the gosh awful Trolls sequel. Plus, it outgrossed Strange World! And it looks like it's starting to build legs a little bit.

 

[Casper Gutman]

This may shock your doom and gloom sense you want to believe but people will make original screenplay films again. It is going to be ok man. Also, people are still writing books and making video games, and even writing plays! More content will come. They just have to try harder. Box office is growing.


The Hannah Barbera basic CGI thing you keep touting has no basis either. Do you really think Mario looks basic compared to some of Disney's recent? Are Turning Red, Wish and Luca some sort of Fantasia or Snow White level standard for you?

Every year since 2020 more people have gone to the movies. Theaters have things are getting better. Writer's and sag strike will make 2024 interesting but the fact is more films have come out this year than last year, and the year before. It is up, not down.

Yes, Turning Red and Luca are vastly superior animation to Mario. This isn’t even debatable, it’s the entire point of Illuminations existence. It’s why Universal owns both Dreamworks and Illuminations - there is a clear distinction in quality.

As for “they’ll just write original scripts,” it’s a claim so divorced from reality as to be laughable. It reflects a complete ignorance of the way modern entertainment companies are organized, of the realities of marketing in a global market, of just about everything about the studios. The studios didn’t just choose to focus on IP- it was a necessary reaction to a series of interlocking structural changes. Look at the box office over the last decade - films without IPs don’t sell. Films based on NEW IPs rarely sell.

And by the way, you’re expecting this shift to be inspired by a year in which the huge hits were based on massively popular IPs and family films without IPs, usually a fairly safe bet, proved to be major failures. It’s a fantasy.

But then a lot of this thread is engaged in fantasy, pretending that adversity will make studios MORE adventurous or that whoever comes after Iger won’t almost certainly be worse. It’s pure wishing.

 

[celluloid]

Yes, Turning Red and Luca are vastly superior animation to Mario. This isn’t even debatable, it’s the entire point of Illuminations existence. It’s why Universal owns both Dreamworks and Illuminations - there is a clear distinction in quality.

As for “they’ll just write original scripts,” it’s a claim so divorced from reality as to be laughable. It reflects a complete ignorance of the way modern entertainment companies are organized, of the realities of marketing in a global market, of just about everything about the studios. The studios didn’t just choose to focus on IP- it was a necessary reaction to a series of interlocking structural changes. Look at the box office over the last decade - films without IPs don’t sell. Films based on NEW IPs rarely sell.

And by the way, you’re expecting this shift to be inspired by a year in which the huge hits were based on massively popular IPs and family films without IPs, usually a fairly safe bet, proved to be major failures. It’s a fantasy.

But then a lot of this thread is engaged in fantasy, pretending that adversity will make studios MORE adventurous or that whoever comes after Iger won’t almost certainly be worse. It’s pure wishing.

Dude. Making IP previous films, either in public domain or not has been around since the dawn. Quit doom and glooming. Yes, I am sure if all sequels start bombing, people will just give up and not seek new money. Get over your pompous stance.

And while it is not a qualifier to make more Screenplays not sequels or remakes made more than Disney did this year with all their IP sequels combined. It is not even a debate.
You have been wrong about so much this year, and we are in the final month. Just bow out.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Reletive to the other comic character you mentioned? Yeah, he was still far more popular. Many successful toy lines and comics in the late 80s and early 90s.

There is a reason that after Spidey, Xmen and The Hulk, he was one of the first ones they went to make a big budget movie.

Let me help you with very basic history. In the mid-90s Marvel went bankrupt. As part of this, they tried to almost literally GIVE away the film rights to their characters to various studios. That’s why Sony has Spidey forever on absurdly good terms. That’s why Universal has Marvel forever and ever. It was more than a fire sale. And the MCU stars? They could not GIVE those away. Cap, Iron Man, Thor? No one would pay pocket change. Because they weren’t popular at all. So when Marvel started making their own films, that was all they had left. They made an Iron Man film because no one else would.

I’ve posted sales figures on here for the year before Iron Man opened. His book was about equal in popularity or slightly less popular to Young Avengers.

Most of the posters here are older. They are CONVINCED comics stopped when they stopped reading them.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Dude. Making IP previous films, either in public domain or not has been around since the dawn. Quit doom and glooming. Yes, I am sure if all sequels start bombing, people will just give up and not seek new money. Get over your pompous stance.

And while it is not a qualifier to make more Screenplays not sequels or remakes made more than Disney did this year with all their IP sequels combined. It is not even a debate.
You have been wrong about so much this year, and we are in the final month. Just bow out.

I don’t even know what you are trying to say in your middle paragraph.

 

[celluloid]

Let me help you with very basic history. In the mid-90s Marvel went bankrupt. As part of this, they tried to almost literally GIVE away the film rights to their characters to various studios. That’s why Sony has Spidey forever on absurdly good terms. That’s why Universal has Marvel forever and ever. It was more than a fire sale. And the MCU stars? They could not GIVE those away. Cap, Iron Man, Thor? No one would pay pocket change. Because they weren’t popular at all. So when Marvel started making their own films, that was all they had left. They made an Iron Man film because no one else would.

I’ve posted sales figures on here for the year before Iron Man opened. His book was about equal in popularity or slightly less popular to Young Avengers.

Most of the posters here are older. They are CONVINCED comics stopped when they stopped reading them.

No history needed. I was around.

Marvel going bankrupt does not mean it was not in pop culture. And Iron man, was always one of the most popular characters.

Some posters here are convinced The Movie theaters are done because Disney has a streaming service. Turns out, they currently just lose money at both with out much positive prospect in sight.

 

[celluloid]

I don’t even know what you are trying to say in your middle paragraph.

Seems to happen with you a lot. New glasses? You already thought Luca was far better visually than Mario. So not shocked.

 

[Casper Gutman]

And Iron man, was always one of the most popular characters.

This is completely, demonstrably false. You lack a basic knowledge of the industries you constantly talk about.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Seems to happen with you a lot. New glasses? You already thought Luca was far better visually than Mario. So not shocked.

Look at it. It’s gibberish. Try editing it.

 

[celluloid]

This is completely, demonstrably false. You lack a basic knowledge of the industries you constantly talk about.

Says a guy who has predicted so many things wrong this year!
You literally said Iron man was never popular.

 

[Casper Gutman]

‘The Little Mermaid’ Budget Breakdown: How Successful Is the Live-Action Remake?

Are the film's box office returns enough to keep it swimming?

collider.com

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

 

[TsWade2]

‘The Little Mermaid’ Budget Breakdown: How Successful Is the Live-Action Remake?

Are the film's box office returns enough to keep it swimming?

collider.com

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

Says a guy who has predicted so many things wrong this year!
You literally said Iron man was never popular.

Geez, I just posted a very hopeful news for Wish that it starting to have legs at the box office, and you two start arguing for whatever movies you guys are talking about? Geez Louise break it up you two! And I thought I was the doom and gloomer one, but this is ridiculous!

 

[celluloid]

Geez, I just posted a very hopeful news for Wish that it starting to have legs at the box office, and you two start arguing for whatever movies you guys are talking about? Geez Louise break it up you two! And I thought I was the doom and gloomer one, but this is ridiculous!

It beat Trolls for a day again friend. Trolls 3 outgrossed Wish much to Casper's and Irish's surprise and against their bad predictions. I don't want to give it attention because it will just depress you. It has gone back and forth daily with Trolls 3, a movie that has already reached double the gross. Napoleon, a Rated R 2 hour and 40 minute movie about an old dead guy from a new theatrical player has outgrossed and is still outperforming it.

There are likley no legs for Wish. The deal is done. Shameful Disney movie performance. Makes the Great Mouse Detectives' business look like Avatar.

 

[erasure fan1]

‘The Little Mermaid’ Budget Breakdown: How Successful Is the Live-Action Remake?

Are the film's box office returns enough to keep it swimming?

collider.com

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

I'm guessing this is your "reliable" information. The only problem is how are they coming to these conclusions?

From Deadline

At that level, per finance sources, off a reported $250M production cost and $140M global marketing spend, The Little Mermaid could very well break-even. However, anything in the low $400M global threshold and this fish is apt to be sinking

This shows a cost of 390mil. So that would mean they need to at least make that amount after the theaters take their cut. Correct?

From Collider

The Little Mermaid did break even, but just barely. The film needed to make at least $560 million globally, which it finally has crossed.

And this says it needs 560mil to break even. It did 570mil so I guess it's settled? Of course we are still missing one key piece of information. What's the percentage of box office take? According to your "reliable" sources, Disney is taking 70% of the box office worldwide? That's the only way it's profiting according to your reliable information. I don't think that is the accepted take by any measure, 50% average has been the standard estimate that I've seen. Now again, I am all for being shown the proper formula.

I just don't see a scenario where these numbers add up to profitability. So unless you can get better sources or proof for your argument, or all the variables that go into the calculations, I'm going to have to say you are wrong on this one. If you want to say someone is wrong, that's fine. But you really need to have actual facts to back up what you claim. I've said my numbers are estimates based on the data we have. You are claiming undisputed facts that I'm wrong but can't show this, laboriously proven so many times, information.