Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Miru]

I’m pretty sure Disney will try to rip off illumination at some point because of the poor performance of recent films (they’d misunderstand that it’s due to their moral failings, not that people don’t want these anymore or poor quality), sorta like 2005’s Chicken Little ripping off Dreamworks. So we’ll likely get a minions ripoff, or a ripoff of Trolls (which is Dreamworks, but itself was Dreamworks’s most successful Illumination ripoff, so it’ll be a ripoff squared). Keeping Blue Sky around would have helped them do Illumination ripoffs faster.

 

[Chi84]

We should have this discussion when Disney puts out a critically acclaimed movie with lackluster box office performance.

2 things can be true at once. The industry can be changing. And Disney could be failing to put out good movies.

Sorry, I didn’t mean to imply anything positive about Disney. I was just pointing something out to the folks who care about box office numbers and nothing else.

 

[HoustonHorn]

Your family isn’t alone, this is how more and more people are consuming entertainment content. This is why Disney has gone all in–literally risking everything–on streaming.

And why it’s stilly to try to evaluate Disney’s efforts based strictly off legacy metrics like box office performance.

So what metric would you suggest using to evaluate the content side of Disney? This is a real question, because it appears that by any currently-used metric, that side is flailing - box office profitability, Disney+ profitability, loss of revenue from licensing content to Netflix/HBO/etc...

And the parks are (currently) very profitable. Which means the parks are subsidizing the content, which leaves less money for park investment.

This is why it's important that the studio and D+ turn things around. Because their stream of failures has a negative impact on the parks.

 

[Disney Analyst]

My entire family loves Disney movies but not a single one of us will see them in theaters for the reasons mentioned above. Theaters are inconvenient, expensive and audience behavior leaves a lot to be desired.

Also, if a family is going to budget, and pick one movie to see over the holidays, if majority likely have Disney+, and not Peacock, it makes sense many would prioritize seeing Trolls, and wait for Wish on streaming.

I think Trolls is one of the biggest factors, it’s splitting the audience.

 

[TalkingHead]

Sorry but ”legacy metrics” still count when your movies generally cost $200m+P&A. They’re not making these things out of the goodness of their hearts.

Has WDAS even announced what their next release is?

 

[Chi84]

Sorry but ”legacy metrics” still count when your movies generally cost $200m+P&A. They’re not making these things out of the goodness of their hearts.

Has WDAS even announced what their next release is?

Yes, of course. The point is that things are going to have to change to account for changing audience behavior.

 

[el_super]

This is why it's important that the studio and D+ turn things around. Because their stream of failures has a negative impact on the parks.

There is absolutely no basis to believe that.

The parks have years of successful content to work from. They are still working to integrate Frozen into the parks, and that's a 10 year old movie now. Moana and Encanto still need more park representation.

Nevermind that historically, a lot of parks IP was based off of box office bombs right from the beginning. People tend not to worry about the box office performance of Alice in Wonderland when riding the teacups.

 

[el_super]

Sorry but ”legacy metrics” still count when your movies generally cost $200m+P&A. They’re not making these things out of the goodness of their hearts.

No, but they also go into it knowing that not every film will be a hit. There is a lot of trial and error in the creative world. A lot of good l, A+ films, just didn't connect with audiences, and Disney history specifically is littered with them.

Even knowing they won't all work out, it's still important to keep your animators producing, and your creatives engaged for when that next big project does hit.

I think they issues at the box office now aren't all that drastic with regard to the changing landscape. I think in-person theater visitation is a losing battle and it's probably not worth Disney's time or money to try to pivot back now. Streaming is the way to go, and just like was said eons ago in this thread, they will eventually need to reach a compromise with the audience on pricing.

They will be fine.

 

[Disney Analyst]

There is absolutely no basis to believe that.

The parks have years of successful content to work from. They are still working to integrate Frozen into the parks, and that's a 10 year old movie now. Moana and Encanto still need more park representation.

Nevermind that historically, a lot of parks IP was based off of box office bombs right from the beginning. People tend not to worry about the box office performance of Alice in Wonderland when riding the teacups.

Sleeping Beauty was a massive flop for the studio, only seeing success later in its life.

 

[Phroobar]

Sleeping Beauty was a massive flop for the studio, only seeing success later in its life.

and it totally silenced the cockiness of the Disney animators just like The Black Cauldron did. Disney totally changed the way they worked. It was the end of Princess fair tales until the Little Mermaid.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Has WDAS even announced what their next release is?

Isn't it Frozen 3?

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Also, if a family is going to budget, and pick one movie to see over the holidays, if majority likely have Disney+, and not Peacock, it makes sense many would prioritize seeing Trolls, and wait for Wish on streaming.

I think Trolls is one of the biggest factors, it’s splitting the audience.

Yep. Disney+ has crazy good subscriber numbers for a newer service. We know that Disney fans are pretty obsessive so it's not a stretch to assume most Disney fans are subscribers.

Why pay $60+ to take a family to Wish when it will be on streaming for "free" within a few months?

They have to change their release methods and/or schedules.

We are seeing it with Indy. I assume most fans wanted to watch it at some point, despite lingering resentment for the previous installment. There's a six (?) month gap between the theatrical release and Disney+. I wonder how much money they made with the digital purchase release over the last few months?

The wait time between theatrical and Disney+ should be even longer IMO, a year at least. Wean people off this expectation that a streaming service will include new movies within months of release.

Disney+ is too reliant on those new releases. It should be able to sustain itself on original shows and legacy content, with theatrical movies coming later in their cycle.

 

[TalkingHead]

Isn't it Frozen 3?

I wasn’t sure. Wiki shows an untitled WDAS release for November 2024. I’m thinking maybe it’s not Frozen 3 because wouldn’t they have attached a teaser to Wish? Seems like the kind of thing they’d want to market a year in advance.

 

[flynnibus]

2 things can be true at once. The industry can be changing. And Disney could be failing to put out good movies.

Which is why i’ve pointed out the movies that have already moved to streaming… like elemental. Have they become culturally significant or high profile in your local interactions?

The bug push about ‘we’ll just watch it home’ still means they should see it and get hooked… but I’m not hearing people getting hooked…

 

[TP2000]

So what metric would you suggest using to evaluate the content side of Disney? This is a real question, because it appears that by any currently-used metric, that side is flailing - box office profitability, Disney+ profitability, loss of revenue from licensing content to Netflix/HBO/etc...

And the parks are (currently) very profitable. Which means the parks are subsidizing the content, which leaves less money for park investment.

This is why it's important that the studio and D+ turn things around. Because their stream of failures has a negative impact on the parks.

Thank you, beautifully said.

And I share your exact concerns about Disney+ and the studio's flailing financial state impacting the parks, and have brought that up a few times over the past six months only to be shouted down as a "hater" or "bigot" or the various ists-and-phobes insults some people try to use now to shut up opinions they disagree with.

The 2023 box office has been a complete disaster for all of Disney's flagship studios, and their two Indie studios. Nothing really worked, nothing really clicked. And a few of their mega-budget offerings were historic bombs. There were two movies that broke even, but just barely; Guardians 3 with a $50 Million profit and Elemental with a $13 Million profit if you close one eye and pretend they only spent $30 Million on marketing it.

This is a disaster. And now, because they postponed Snow White for a year due to "the strike" even though it's allegedly completed and sitting on a shelf ready to go, Disney will now have a stretch of 6 months where they have no new theater releases until Memorial Day Weekend, 2024 when they release Planet Of The Apes 7: Monkey See, Monkey Do.

 

[TP2000]

We should all sit down before we read this latest box office update for Friday, November 24th.

It gives the phrase "Black Friday" a whole new meaning for The Walt Disney Company....

Wish is a complete disaster domestically, even though it's in the most theaters this weekend. The Marvels is sliding into oblivion fast and may not even make it to $100 Million domestically. And little Indie film Next Goal Wins only cost $14 Million to make but will still lose money for Burbank.

 

[erasure fan1]

The wait time between theatrical and Disney+ should be even longer IMO, a year at least. Wean people off this expectation that a streaming service will include new movies within months of release.

While I agree that part of the issue with box office was the early dump to D+. But I'm not sure a year would be the way to go. That's too much time. The problem is they used to have all sorts of secondary revenue streams for post box office. That's all but completely dried up. So while they need to be careful with how quick they pull a film to send to D+ for box office sake. They also have to feed the D+ beast if that's their endgame. The only real chance that a year would happen is if all te studios did it in my opinion. Disney wants to be the top streaming service. And if new films take a year to release on the service, that's a distinct disadvantage for them if everyone else isn't doing it.

 

[TP2000]

The problem is they used to have all sorts of secondary revenue streams for post box office. That's all but completely dried up. So while they need to be careful with how quick they pull a film to send to D+ for box office sake. They also have to feed the D+ beast if that's their endgame.

The collapse in DVD/BluRay sales the last 5 years has been stunning. Most big box stores don't even sell them any more, and have now turned that shelf space over to vinyl records, which is a 21st century fad that really makes me chuckle!

In the past 18 months, the total DVD sales for both Lightyear and Strange World combined is just over $4 Million. I bet the Lightning Lane for Space Mountain makes more than $4 Million in a single month.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

They have to change their release methods and/or schedules.

The wait time between theatrical and Disney+ should be even longer IMO, a year at least. Wean people off this expectation that a streaming service will include new movies within months of release.

Disney+ is too reliant on those new releases. It should be able to sustain itself on original shows and legacy content, with theatrical movies coming later in their cycle.

Until a few years ago I bought every Disney movie on Bluray on release day, which used similar release schedules as streaming, but I still saw the value in seeing many of those films in the theaters.

I think streaming is A factor but not the biggest factor to Disneys box office troubles, if they moved the streaming release back a year I don’t think it would have a huge affect on the box office, and it may be offset by D+ loses.

The bug push about ‘we’ll just watch it home’ still means they should see it and get hooked… but I’m not hearing people getting hooked…

This highlights the bigger problem that the stories aren’t hooking people.

Despite all the recent releases being on D+ “for free” I’ve only watched most of them once, and a few I didn’t even bother finishing.

As I mentioned above I bought probably 99% of Disney movie on VHS/DVD/Blu-ray for probably 3 decades straight, I’m not sure I’d have bought the last dozen or so movies, they just aren’t something I think have repeat viewing potential.

Disney has lots of small problems but the biggest problem is stories that aren’t connecting with the audience.

 

[Chi84]

Until a few years ago I bought every Disney movie on Bluray on release day, which used similar release schedules as streaming, but I still saw the value in seeing many of those films in the theaters.

I think streaming is A factor but not the biggest factor to Disneys box office troubles, if they moved the streaming release back a year I don’t think it would have a huge affect on the box office, and it may be offset by D+ loses.



This highlights the bigger problem that the stories aren’t hooking people.

Despite all the recent releases being on D+ “for free” I’ve only watched most of them once, and a few I didn’t even bother finishing.

As I mentioned above I bought probably 99% of Disney movie on VHS/DVD/Blu-ray for probably 3 decades straight, I’m not sure I’d have bought the last dozen or so movies, they just aren’t something I think have repeat viewing potential.

Disney has lots of small problems but the biggest problem is stories that aren’t connecting with the audience.

But audiences are different now, even aside from the fact that most people aren’t the kind of fans you find here. “Out there” the perception is still very much that Disney films are for kids. I don’t know many adults who buy and re-watch them to the extent of fans here.

I don’t think Disney is going to be successful getting its key audience - families with small kids - back into theaters. This may mean a sea change for Disney, but they’ll figure it out.

I do agree that some of their recent films aren’t up to their best work, but I feel that way about pretty much everything these days. Quality is not as important as moving quickly onto the next thing.