The 289m in the upper reaches of the domestic range total is over 40 million More than the domestic take of Moana which budget was 25 million less then Wish… so hypothetically if Wish does manage to reach that… it has done better than Moana which is considered a winSo the box office pre-sales tracking and forecasts have been updated today by Box Office Pro. It's not good news for Disney.
The Marvels had its box office forecasts lowered by 9% today, and now is tracking at only a $45 to $67 Million opening weekend. The production budget is reported to be $220 Million, after a $50 Million subsidy from British taxpayers.
View attachment 751043
Meanwhile, the first box office projection for Disney's Wish is out, and it's horrible. The production budget for WIsh was reported to be $200 Million.
View attachment 751045
Long Range Box Office Forecast: Disney's WISH and Ridley Scott's NAPOLEON
This year's Thanksgiving weekend could be a welcome feast for exhibition after a string of modest-to-underperforming openers during the holiday corridor in recent post-pandemic years.www.boxofficepro.com
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Using the first solid box office projection from Box Office Pro, here's where The Marvels could likely end up. I added Ant Man from earlier this year as a comparison and sort of baseline. Taking 60% of the domestic box office, and 40% of the overseas box office as Marvel Studios take of box office sales.
The Marvels: $220 Production/$100 Marketing, $83 Domestic, $66 Overseas = $170 Million Loss
The Marvels: $220 Production/$100 Marketing, $83 Domestic, $66 Overseas = $170 Million Loss
TP2000
Well-Known Member
It's considered a win to lose money at the box office on a holiday mega-budget tentpole family film? Who knew?
Here's how things look from the first box office projection for Wish, using the mid-range of the current domestic box office forecasts. I used Moana as the benchmark, but had to adjust Moana's box office numbers for inflation because 2016 was so long ago price-wise now.
Wish: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $141 Domestic, $142 Overseas = $17 Million Loss
But this is just a guessing point at this point… I did say if it reaches the upper part of the range… I am not even saying it will, but you are so gleefully ready to pounce on anything that can be considered negative with Disney…I see nothing in those projections that would sound any alarms… it is going to come down to how the reactions are once the movie is released as mention even in the box office pro article…. Where are you even getting the world wide projections… I was thinking about inflation when I said if it reaches the highest point in the ranges… Moana had a 175 budget and made 248 stateside… the highest point is 289… so an estimated 40 million moreIt's considered a win to lose money at the box office on a holiday mega-budget tentpole family film? Who knew?
Here's how things look from the first box office projection for Wish, using the mid-range of the current domestic box office forecasts. I used Moana as the benchmark, but had to adjust Moana's box office numbers for inflation because 2016 was so long ago price-wise now.
Wish: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $141 Domestic, $142 Overseas = $17 Million Loss
View attachment 751053
View attachment 751054
View attachment 751055
TP2000
Well-Known Member
So far in calendar year 2023, Disney has lost $792 Million on the movies released by its collection of flagship and niche studios.
Three movies have made a profit for Disney at the box office so far; Guardians 3 and the re-release of Hocus Pocus and Nightmare Before Christmas.
Disney only has three more movies being released in 2023 to try and whittle down that $792 Million loss; The Marvels, Wish and Next Goal Wins. Box office projections as of late October are showing that The Marvels will be a flop, Wish may break even, and Next Goal Wins will produce a small profit.
2023 Movies No Longer In Theaters
Ant Man 3: $200 Production $100 Marketing, Box Office $129 USA, $100 Foreign, $229 B.O. Take = $71 Million Loss
Guardians 3: $250 Production $100 Marketing, Box Office $215 USA, $194 Foreign, $409 B.O. Take = $59 Million Profit
Mermaid: $250 Production $140 Marketing, Box Office $179 USA, $105 Foreign, $284 B.O. Take = $106 Million Loss
Elemental: $200 Production $100 Marketing, Box Office $92 USA, $130 Foreign, $222 B.O. Take = $78 Million Loss
Indy 5: $300 Production $125 Marketing, Box Office $105 USA, $79 Foreign, $184 B.O. Take = $241 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $157 Production, $63 Marketing, Box Office $39 USA $14 Foreign, $53 B.O. Take = $167 Million Loss
The Boogeyman: $35 Production, $17 Marketing, Box Office $26 USA, $16 Foreign, B.O. Take $42 = $10 Million Loss
Chevalier: $46 Production, $15 Marketing, Box Office $2.1 USA, $120,000 Foreign, B.O. Take $2.2 = $59 Million Loss
Theater Camp: $8 Production, $4 Marketing, Box Office $2.2 USA, $71,000 Foreign, B.O. Take $2.3 = $10 Million Loss
2023 Movies Still In Theaters
A Haunting In Venice; $60 Production/$30 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $26 Overseas = $39 Million Loss
The Creator; $80 Production/$40 Marketing, $22 Domestic, $21 Overseas = $77 Million Loss
Nightmare Before Christmas Re-Release; $4 Domestic = $4 Million Profit
Hocus Pocus Re-Release: $3 Domestic = $3 Million Profit
Upcoming Movies in 2023
The Marvels; Initial Box Office Forecasts = $150 Million Loss???
Next Goal Wins; Initial Box Office Forecasts = $15 Million Profit???
Wish; Initial Box Office Forecasts = Hopefully Break Even???
Three movies have made a profit for Disney at the box office so far; Guardians 3 and the re-release of Hocus Pocus and Nightmare Before Christmas.
Disney only has three more movies being released in 2023 to try and whittle down that $792 Million loss; The Marvels, Wish and Next Goal Wins. Box office projections as of late October are showing that The Marvels will be a flop, Wish may break even, and Next Goal Wins will produce a small profit.
2023 Movies No Longer In Theaters
Ant Man 3: $200 Production $100 Marketing, Box Office $129 USA, $100 Foreign, $229 B.O. Take = $71 Million Loss
Guardians 3: $250 Production $100 Marketing, Box Office $215 USA, $194 Foreign, $409 B.O. Take = $59 Million Profit
Mermaid: $250 Production $140 Marketing, Box Office $179 USA, $105 Foreign, $284 B.O. Take = $106 Million Loss
Elemental: $200 Production $100 Marketing, Box Office $92 USA, $130 Foreign, $222 B.O. Take = $78 Million Loss
Indy 5: $300 Production $125 Marketing, Box Office $105 USA, $79 Foreign, $184 B.O. Take = $241 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $157 Production, $63 Marketing, Box Office $39 USA $14 Foreign, $53 B.O. Take = $167 Million Loss
The Boogeyman: $35 Production, $17 Marketing, Box Office $26 USA, $16 Foreign, B.O. Take $42 = $10 Million Loss
Chevalier: $46 Production, $15 Marketing, Box Office $2.1 USA, $120,000 Foreign, B.O. Take $2.2 = $59 Million Loss
Theater Camp: $8 Production, $4 Marketing, Box Office $2.2 USA, $71,000 Foreign, B.O. Take $2.3 = $10 Million Loss
2023 Movies Still In Theaters
A Haunting In Venice; $60 Production/$30 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $26 Overseas = $39 Million Loss
The Creator; $80 Production/$40 Marketing, $22 Domestic, $21 Overseas = $77 Million Loss
Nightmare Before Christmas Re-Release; $4 Domestic = $4 Million Profit
Hocus Pocus Re-Release: $3 Domestic = $3 Million Profit
Upcoming Movies in 2023
The Marvels; Initial Box Office Forecasts = $150 Million Loss???
Next Goal Wins; Initial Box Office Forecasts = $15 Million Profit???
Wish; Initial Box Office Forecasts = Hopefully Break Even???
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Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
As an animated musical I really thought Wish was the one Disney movie this year that had big box office potential, if it fails I think Disney may need to accept that the brand is severely damaged and people are now actively choosing to skip Disney movies because they’re Disney movies, even the ones that follow their traditional blockbuster model.
I thought this had the potential to be the next Encanto sleeper hit but I’m losing faith with every forecast I see.
I thought this had the potential to be the next Encanto sleeper hit but I’m losing faith with every forecast I see.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
No, I mean have a slow start but find a following, Encanto just found it too late after it hit D+, it became very popular though.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
Five Nights at Freddy's has been released to both Peacock (for free) and theaters. According to imdb, Blum House already made back their budget via streaming distribution rights and theatrical rights. We'll see how it does this weekend.
I watched it last night. It is pretty tame with most kills off screen and very little blood. It's aimed at younger teenagers. The Chucky tv show on SyFy is far bloodier.
I watched it last night. It is pretty tame with most kills off screen and very little blood. It's aimed at younger teenagers. The Chucky tv show on SyFy is far bloodier.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Since the subtitle of this thread is “what happens now?” the answer is, for the 2024 slate…nothing.
Disney’s figured it out - you can’t lose hundreds of millions in the theatrical window if you simply stop releasing films!
Disney’s figured it out - you can’t lose hundreds of millions in the theatrical window if you simply stop releasing films!
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
‘Snow White’ First Look: Rachel Zegler and the Seven Dwarfs Join Forces in Disney’s Live-Action Movie
Disney has unveiled a first look at the live-action 'Snow White' film, with Rachel Zegler posing with the Seven Dwarfs.
variety.com
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
Yikes! The unemployed philosophy majors looked better. What kind of CG crap is that?‘Snow White’ First Look: Rachel Zegler and the Seven Dwarfs Join Forces in Disney’s Live-Action Movie
Disney has unveiled a first look at the live-action 'Snow White' film, with Rachel Zegler posing with the Seven Dwarfs.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
Is this real or did Variety get duped by a satire site?‘Snow White’ First Look: Rachel Zegler and the Seven Dwarfs Join Forces in Disney’s Live-Action Movie
Disney has unveiled a first look at the live-action 'Snow White' film, with Rachel Zegler posing with the Seven Dwarfs.
Either everyone got it wrong or Disney is making major changes after filming wrapped via CG.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
It's real, and being discussed to great comedic effect over in the Snow White thread.
Snow White is being redone and has been pushed to a release date of March, 2025 now.
Rachel Zegler is unavailable for comment.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
The whiplash on this, if true, is something else.
Dinklage prompts a reassessment of having dwarfs (or those that take on those characteristics). Now, shoddy, Phase IV MCU CGI is the solution, where the diverse crowd is now replaced by…a homogenous group of dwarfs.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Disney responds to Peter Dinklage's criticism of Snow White remake
Actor Peter Dinklage called a live-action remake of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs "backwards".
www.bbc.com
Chi84
Premium Member
I’m not seeing in that statement that the seven characters would not be dwarfs.Disney responds to Peter Dinklage's criticism of Snow White remake
Actor Peter Dinklage called a live-action remake of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs "backwards".
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Other than they called them “these seven characters”?