Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I think the budget (est. 200-250 million), paired with the brand, and with Jared Leto, has doomed this into flop territory.

$500M - $650M is not an out of question range for this movie which would put it in the breakeven to modest profit range, so I don't automatically put it in the "its doomed to flop" category.

Now of course anything is possible and it could under perform, so who knows.

Also I've seen rumors of even a sub-$200M budget, similar to Legacy, so who knows what the actual budget is until reported by the trades.

 

[Disney Analyst]

$500M - $650M is not an out of question range for this movie which would put it in the breakeven to modest profit range, so I don't automatically put it in the "its doomed to flop" category.

Now of course anything is possible and it could under perform, so who knows.

Also I've seen rumors of even a sub-$200M budget, similar to Legacy, so who knows what the actual budget is until reported by the trades.

I still think Leto is a problem, that will only get worse the closer to release.

 

[Disney Irish]

And they may be behind them again once Disney drops Tron 3 and Zootopia 2 in the coming months, not counting the Fox releases (Predator and Avatar), plus the Hamilton concert movie and 30th Anniversary of Toy Story in theaters too.

That wasn't a comment on this year, I'm talking about in general. As there are no WB movies in the top 10 all time domestic list, and only 2 in the top 20.

For this year they are currently only $80M ahead of Disney, which will be made up quickly as WB only has 3 more releases this year, and none huge.

 

[Disney Irish]

I still think Leto is a problem, that will only get worse the closer to release.

Maybe, we'll see. It hasn't affected too much of his other stuff recently, so I don't know how much it'll affect this movie.

 

[Nevermore525]

Visuals and the Reznor/NiN soundtrack will be the main driver for Tron. A better story than previous iterations (at least better than Legacy) could give it a boost.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Maybe, we'll see. It hasn't affected too much of his other stuff recently, so I don't know how much it'll affect this movie.

Has he had anything major come out since the June news reports and allegations?

I can't even see how Disney could get him on a red carpet giving interviews, or doing any sort of press if this is in the air...

 

[Disney Irish]

Has he had anything major come out since the June news reports and allegations?

I can't even see how Disney could get him on a red carpet giving interviews, or doing any sort of press if this is in the air...

Not since the "June stuff", but there have been the "cult allegations" for years and that never affected any of his previous work including any of his recent stuff. Morbius is a separate issue, so I won't even discuss that.

But then again he hasn't ever really been a huge box office draw anyways. Which is why I'm saying I don't know how much this will affect the movie.

Also its not like Disney has shied away from using him in the trailers and such since June. So we'll see if he is allowed to do press for it.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Wasn’t paying attention. So wait.. F4’s legs have improved?!

Yes, because when you drop from $9 million to $6 million, as a %, it's not as significant as 40 or 50+%

Doesn't mean either number is great though.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I still think Leto is a problem, that will only get worse the closer to release.

Unless the critics actually put their anti-Leto bias aside and judge the movie on everything else.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes, because when you drop from $9 million to $6 million, as a %, it's not as significant as 40 or 50+%

Doesn't mean either number is great though.

Great, no.

But it is an improvement over other recent MCU movies. So while still an under performer it will do better than breakeven, which indicates a more positive response to the MCU by audiences.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Unless the critics actually put their anti-Leto bias aside and judge the movie on everything else.

I’d be more concerned about the general audience who is likely to refuse to support the film due to everything that is coming out.

The IP is already niche as it is. I predict none of this helps its chances at the box office.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’d be more concerned about the general audience who is likely to refuse to support the film due to everything that is coming out.

The IP is already niche as it is. I predict none of this helps its chances at the box office.

Its not you, as I know its just a saying, but I always find it funny when someone says "I predict none of this will help". I mean that is an easy prediction, as something negative will almost never helps something.

The only question is if it'll hurt it and that is unknown until the movie is released.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Its not you, as I know its just a saying, but I always find it funny when someone says "I predict none of this will help". I mean that is an easy prediction, as something negative will almost never help something.

The only question is if it'll hurt it and that is unknown until the movie is released.

Well everything is unknown until it happens, but as this thread is built for the fun and intrigue of speculation and discussion, based on the facts we have at hand in any given time, I speculate this is not going to go well, based on the current known factors.

Especially in a year where barely any films are doing gangbuster business.

 

[Phroobar]

I plan on seeing Tron and Avatar but not Zootopia. It looks like the same movie as before. Instead of Predator vs Prey it is Reptiles vs Everyone else.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well everything is unknown until it happens, but as this thread is built for the fun and intrigue of speculation and discussion, based on the facts we have at hand in any given time, I speculate this is not going to go well, based on the current known factors.

Especially in a year where barely any films are doing gangbuster business.

True, but as the audience is even more fickle these days who knows how they will react to this. They may ignore it all, or it may have a huge impact.

As scandals are very common these days (almost a new one every week) my prediction is this ends up as just something that gets talked about but won't affect it one way or the other. If the movie is good any impact will be negligible, if its not good it'll be used to blame any bad box office performance.

 

[Disney Analyst]

True, but as the audience is even more fickle these days who knows how they will react to this. They may ignore it all, or it may have a huge impact.

As scandals are very common these days (almost a new one every week) my prediction is this ends up as just something that gets talked about but won't affect it one way or the other. If the movie is good any impact will be negligible, if its not good it'll be used to blame any bad box office performance.

You are right for sure about the audience, and as we have learned, even good films (good critic scores and in the 'A' bracket for Cinema Score) don't seem to always crack the audience code this year. The audience is unpredictable.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I plan on seeing Tron and Avatar but not Zootopia. It looks like the same movie as before. Instead of Predator vs Prey it is Reptiles vs Everyone else.

You’re wrong about Zootopia.

It doesn’t look like the same movie at all.

The fact that it’s about Judy and Nick having to go rogue to help clear a snake’s name is enough to show it’s not the same movie.

 

[DKampy]

Tron has proven itself in my opinion, from the Legacy to Uprising, it has an audience. The only question is will it be enough to drive it to go beyond Ares, ie make enough money to warrant any further installments. That remains to be seen. But with a general consensus rumored ~$200M budget it may be possible (I've seen other rumors about a $250M budget but you know how that goes), but we'll have to see when the final budget numbers are released by the trades.

Badlands may end up being a sleeper hit, I'm just not sure yet how much of one. It won't get to $1B, but could do over $500M which would be good compared to its reported $100M budget.

I hope I am wrong about Tron….as I am always rootting for Disney if nothing else to prove the Disney haters wrong…. And the trailers have looked great…. But Tron has always felt like a niche IP….I dislike the use of the term “ normies” but from that perspective I am not sure if they will care…. I know family and friends who did not even know there was a Tron movie in the 80’s

I know it’s only 1 person… but my Wife usually follows my lead about what to see… as I follow this a lot closer then her…. She has already told me she has no interest in Tron… so looks like I will be seeing this myself…. And she is someone who loves going to the theater and goes weekly…. On the flip side she is very interested in Predator: Badlands as she loved Prey

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I plan on seeing Tron and Avatar but not Zootopia. It looks like the same movie as before. Instead of Predator vs Prey it is Reptiles vs Everyone else.

I’m not into any of those. Usually, we watch avatar movies at home on cable. I’ve never been a huge fan of them, they’re OK.

Couldn’t get into the first Tron when I was a kid. Not about to try again.

 

[Phroobar]

You’re wrong about Zootopia.

It doesn’t look like the same movie at all.

The fact that it’s about Judy and Nick having to go rogue to help clear a snake’s name is enough to show it’s not the same movie.

I'm sure it will do well because it's a sequel. I can wait for D+.