Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

We need to parse out its best days are behind it and that it’s no longer a major growth industry (absolutely) and it will become irrelevant and niche in a short time interval. Those are very different statements.

Except I don't think they are different statements. Because one can be part of the other. This conversations has been had many times over the years. Theatrical has been on a downward trajectory for years now since its height in 2002, long before the pandemic, due to less ticket sales every year. It was just that box office successes were masking that for the most part until the pandemic hit. And as the pandemic hit it became obvious that theatrical could no longer sustain its growth and started to contract as more and more people started to be comfortable with staying home and waiting. And its just gotten worse as time went along.

Also I'm not talking about 1-5 years here. I'm talking in 15-20 years. So in the short term I think some years will be better than others, but overall I think the downward trend will continue.

You can define short how you wish, but as you mentioned streaming killed video rentals within a matter of years. We are many years into this cycle now and theatrical somehow managed to grow in the 2010s.

It tried briefly in the pandemic and unsuccessfully walked back taking on theatrical wholesale. The home market has been challenging theatrical for 40 years now. That was my point that you are trying to really not speak to. Something else disruptive needs to occur, because the home market and theatrical have coexisted for ages. They are not equivalent experiences.

The difference with the last 40 years and now was that people were still heading out to the movies as their main form of entertainment. Theatrical was still seen as the superior experience to the home viewing, because it was. You can still see that sentiment here with a few posters. But the pandemic really changed how people viewed their home entertainment. People invested in major home theater systems since people were stuck at home. And now many people see the home experience in many ways being superior for a variety of factors.

So yes prior to the pandemic they coexisted. And in the short term they will still continue to coexist. But for how much longer, that is the question.

So the catalyst that you're looking for to cause this disruption I believe has already happened. Its just not going to be the immediate overnight change that I believe you're thinking.

 

[coffeefan]

Perhaps Disney is testing longer theatrical and VOD windows for MCU films.
For comparison, Avatar 2 had a gap of 173 days.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Hasn’t this been true since the 90s?

I’m still not convinced theatrical is on its inevitable slow death spiral. As long as the major studios preserve the exclusivity window, that’s the justification for its existence.

I think it’s been true since the 1920s. I’ve read articles about theaters fearing how public radio would affect them, even greater fears in the 1950s over TV, fears again with the rise of cable with dozens of channels, more fears over VHS… now it’s fears over streaming.

It’s kind of shocking how well the theaters have actually survived a century of technological progress.

I think they probably peaked a decade ago but I think they’ll still be around in some form decades from now.

 

[BrianLo]

So the catalyst that you're looking for to cause this disruption I believe has already happened. It’s just not going to be the immediate overnight change that I believe you're thinking.

I guess my qualm is - is theatrical the new brick and mortar video rental store in 15-20 years? Or does it still push out the occasional 1B breakthrough tentpole.

There’s a wide gap there in those outcomes.

 

[TP2000]

Congratulations on Nephew #1's good news A new baby is always exciting It sounds like you had a wonderful time with the family

Thank you! My dedicated job as great uncle will be to make that child a Disneyland fan by the time he's 6. I'd also be thrilled to sit and watch Cars for the first time with him if it's a boy, or Frozen if it's a girl. We'll know which later this fall. But I'm going to get 'em hooked on classic Disney young!

The kids are all still here through the weekend, then it's just my sister and her husband for the next week. We can then play tennis (slowly and badly) and forget about that pickleball craze the young'uns are so fascinated with.

 

[Disney Irish]

I guess my qualm is - is theatrical the new brick and mortar video rental store in 15-20 years? Or does it still push out the occasional 1B breakthrough tentpole.

There’s a wide gap there in those outcomes.

I guess that is the ultimate question that we will get the answer to in time.

And maybe it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy that studios made for themselves. But eventually I think it'll happen.

Heck maybe we get an Oasis type device and that takes over as the main form of entertainment.

 

[JackCH]

Which is why I go back to what I said -
Do I think theatrical will still be around in 25 years in some form, yes. But will it be the main driver of a studios profit motive for movies at that point, no. The long term economics just don't look to be there. And that is the point.

I guess I'm having a hard time pinpointing what your actual prediction is. As elsewhere you have said:

So for this isn't not an "if" its more of a "when" type of situation. Will it be, 10, 15, 20, 50 years down the line, who knows but I can almost with 99% certainty guarantee theatrical will go away eventually. The technologist in me knows it'll happen. And so far with these type of predictions I've been batting almost 1000.

Sure anything "can" happen. And I'm not saying that theatrical will go away next year, but in the next 15-20 yeah I can see it.

Which, to me, implies you think it pretty much all shuts down completely. I suppose it depends on what you mean by "niche" market.

 

[Dranth]

I guess that is the ultimate question that we will get the answer to in time.

And maybe it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy that studios made for themselves. But eventually I think it'll happen.

Heck maybe we get an Oasis type device and that takes over as the main form of entertainment.

Won't happen.

You forgot the one thing studios still have on their side, sound mixing!

10 years from now the ONLY way you will be able to understand any dialog in a movie is to see it in a theater, so they aren't going anywhere.

 

[Disney Irish]

I guess I'm having a hard time pinpointing what your actual prediction is. As elsewhere you have said:


Which, to me, implies you think it pretty much all shuts down completely. I suppose it depends on what you mean by "niche" market.

You're more than two decades younger than me, if the age on your profile is accurate. I've seen technological changes completely upend industries during my life, on this topic video stores being a great example. And so if you ask me if I can see a world where theatrical goes away completely, the answer is yes.

That doesn't mean I can't also think that theaters can't have a place in a niche market. I've said elsewhere that I think theaters will become similar to the golden age of Hollywood, where it was more of an "event" where you go once or twice a year. Heck we're almost to that point now. Where theaters move to offer more amenities like food and drink service right to the seat, you're starting to see that now with a few theater chains. And where its ends up being more of a luxury item that the more wealthy go to versus the average person who ends up skipping it, again we're starting to see that now.

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, we've got another movie from Burbank and preview box office is in for it.... Freakier Friday!

Did anyone request this sequel? It's got a very modest budget of just $42 Million, so I'm betting the snack table in that Burbank soundstage was looking rather bleak throughout its production. It will need around $120 Million globally to break even. Box Office Pro has it pegged for a $35 to $45 Million opening weekend haul. It did $3 Million in previews yesterday. Hmm....

Weekend Preview: FREAKIER FRIDAY Looking to Win the Weekend

The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 8 – 10, 2025 Week 32 | August 8 – 10, 2025 1. Freakier FridayWalt Disney Pictures | NEWOpening Weekend Range: $35M – $45MShowtime Marketshare: 16% Pros Cons 2. WeaponsWarner Bros. | NEWOpening Weekend Range...

www.boxofficepro.com

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I guess that is the ultimate question that we will get the answer to in time.

And maybe it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy that studios made for themselves. But eventually I think it'll happen.

Heck maybe we get an Oasis type device and that takes over as the main form of entertainment.

New technology beyond larger TV screens is one thing that hasn't been brought up here I think.

VR headsets can now let one watch a movie on a theater sized screen at home. Apple's Vision Pro plays movies in 4K and 3D. It's an expensive niche product for now, but the technology is impressive. The Meta Quest can be used to watch movies as well, in mere HD quality but at 1/7 the price point or so.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Gas prices are not a reliable indicator. And the lowest gas prices have been in modern history was during the pandemic, when the economy was hardly booming.

The underlying trends ain’t good…on many layers/levels

That’s with the king of “economical denial” at the wheel.

We might be living on a river in Egypt here

Time will tell

 

[Disney Irish]

New technology beyond larger TV screens is one thing that hasn't been brought up here I think.

VR headsets can now let one watch a movie on a theater sized screen at home. Apple's Vision Pro plays movies in 4K and 3D. It's an expensive niche product for now, but the technology is impressive. The Meta Quest can be used to watch movies as well, in mere HD quality but at 1/7 the price point or so.

Yeah, I have no doubt that another technological advancement will happen in the next decade or two in terms of viewing experience. Whether virtual viewing or a physical screen will be interesting to see.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[easyrowrdw]

Thank you, this is an amazingly helpful nugget I never knew to look for. It would have settled years of debates.

Who knew, the backend IS significant?

I wonder how much of that is cable. I always heard that was huge for a long time but times are different. I’m also curious how the percentages have changed over the years. Although I think their categories have changed over the years too so maybe those comparisons aren’t really possible

 

[Nevermore525]

I wonder how much of that is cable. I always heard that was huge for a long time but times are different. I’m also curious how the percentages have changed over the years. Although I think their categories have changed over the years too so maybe those comparisons aren’t really possible

This current fiscal year is when they combined TV/VOD and Home Entertainment. Whole decline of Physical Media sales and rise of digital consumption

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Tv…cable…accounted for almost 60% of all Disneys revenue not that long ago…
And it was more profitable because it was the prime ad space and they could charge a fortune for it.

It wasn’t gonna last…obviously…but they’re trying to replicate the same model with streaming and it will never work. Dynamics are way different.

It’s why they began to overtax their parks and resorts…in particular.

 

[Nevermore525]

This current fiscal year is when they combined TV/VOD and Home Entertainment. Whole decline of Physical Media sales and rise of digital consumption

Haven’t taken the time to go back further but for the following Calendar Years:

2018: TV/SVOD - 44.4%
Theatrical - 37.4%
Home Entertainment - 18.2%

2019: TV/SVOD - 40%
Theatrical - 45%
Home Entertainment - 15%

2020: TV/SVOD - 70%
Theatrical - 10%
Home Entertainment- 20%

2021: TV/SVOD - 64%
Theatrical - 21%
Home Entertainment - 15%

2022: TV/SVOD - 52%
Theatrical - 38%
Home Entertainment - 10%

2023: TV/SVOD - 38%
Theatrical - 46%
Home Entertainment - 16%

2024: TV/SVOD and Home Entertainment (got combined for the last quarter of 2024) - 55%
Theatrical - 45%

 

[BrianLo]

Okay gang, we've got another movie from Burbank and preview box office is in for it.... Freakier Friday!

Did anyone request this sequel? It's got a very modest budget of just $42 Million, so I'm betting the snack table in that Burbank soundstage was looking rather bleak throughout its production. It will need around $120 Million globally to break even. Box Office Pro has it pegged for a $35 to $45 Million opening weekend haul. It did $3 Million in previews yesterday. Hmm....

View attachment 875966

Weekend Preview: FREAKIER FRIDAY Looking to Win the Weekend

The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 8 – 10, 2025 Week 32 | August 8 – 10, 2025 1. Freakier FridayWalt Disney Pictures | NEWOpening Weekend Range: $35M – $45MShowtime Marketshare: 16% Pros Cons 2. WeaponsWarner Bros. | NEWOpening Weekend Range...

www.boxofficepro.com

‘Weapons’ Rises To $43M+ Opening, Still Freaking Out ‘Freakier Friday’: How New Line & Warner Bros Pulled It Off – Box Office Update

New Line's 'Weapons' is off to an excellent start at the box office, with previews coming in at $5M+, while Disney sequel 'Freakier Friday' is eyeing $3M.

deadline.com

Deadline is pegging a 30M domestic with a 12M Friday. I actually think that’s great all things said? The domestic haul will get this one easily over the finish line and it’s a streaming play anyways.

Don’t ask me the international appeal. It could be a single or strong double digit and I will nod along.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…guess what else is looking like a $20 million dollar weekend too?…which is akin to flatline.

That “uncomfortable” conversation is coming soon to a thread near you…I hope it goes better this time