Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

The economy sucks and it's not getting better anytime soon. I see a bunch of movies underperforming over the next year

Did any of those predict Asia was going to go soft on superhero movies in 2025 or that the American economy was going to get worse? No.

Just so we can understand, and pin this down for future discussion...

What exact metric are you two using to determine that the "economy" in the Summer of '25 is preventing any mega-budget movie from approaching or surpassing the $1 Billion mark like movies did in the summers of '23 (Barbie) and '24 (Inside Out 2)?

Because every economic metric I know of to look at that might show why Americans are staying away from movies for financial reasons shows a similar or better outlook now than in recent summers. Plus the very strong attendance and profits at Disney's theme parks in the USA this spring into summer, as documented by this week's Disney earnings call.

Q2 Annualized US GDP Growth
2023 = +2.4%
2024 = +3.0%
2025 = +3.0%

July US Unemployment Rate
2023 = 3.5%
2024 = 4.3%
2025 = 4.2%

July US Annualized Inflation Rate
2023 = 3.2%
2024 = 2.9%
2025 = 2.7%

July Average US Price For Gallon Of Gas
2023 = $3.71
2024 = $3.48
2025 = $3.15

What metric are you using to determine that the "economy" is not conducive to blockbuster box office sales in the summer of 2025? Especially compared to the summers of '23 and '24?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just so we can understand, and pin this down for future discussion...

What exact metric are you two using to determine that the "economy" in the Summer of '25 is preventing any mega-budget movie from approaching or surpassing the $1 Billion mark like movies did in the summers of '23 (Barbie) and '24 (Inside Out 2)?

Because every economic metric I know of to look at that might show why Americans are staying away from movies for financial reasons shows a similar or better outlook now than in recent summers. Plus the very strong attendance and profits at Disney's theme parks in the USA this spring into summer, as documented by this week's Disney earnings call.

Q2 Annualized US GDP Growth
2023 = +2.4%
2024 = +3.0%
2025 = +3.0%

July US Unemployment Rate
2023 = 3.5%
2024 = 4.3%
2025 = 4.2%

July US Annualized Inflation Rate
2023 = 3.2%
2024 = 2.9%
2025 = 2.7%

July Average US Price For Gallon Of Gas
2023 = $3.71
2024 = $3.48
2025 = $3.15

What metric are you using to determine that the "economy" is not conducive to blockbuster box office sales in the summer of 2025? Especially compared to the summers of '23 and '24?

Caveat…

Disney parks aren’t “strong”…all their “increases” are due to price increases and
Cost cuts…which isn’t a sign of “strength” at all.

Wall Street has kicked that report around like a soccer ball since it dropped. They’re not a fan of either the park data nor D+

 

[BrianLo]

After yesterday’s earnings. For Calendar 2025 Disney Studios % of revenue stream

TV/VOD Distribution: 41% ($1.795B)
Theatrical Distribution : 33% ($1.466B)
Other (Stage Shows, etc): 26% ($1.142B)

Thank you, this is an amazingly helpful nugget I never knew to look for. It would have settled years of debates.

Who knew, the backend IS significant?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Outside of a sequel IP, no.

I’m pretty down on Disney right now but this seems extremely pessimistic even to me, it may take a few years but I’m confident Disney will find gold somewhere again. Disney is a bit of a train wreck at the moment but they still have a ton of talent, I think (hope?) once the leadership team changes and the culture changes from the top down we’ll have another golden age.

 

[BrianLo]

But take your point and flip it, why are more people now watching movies at home instead of going to the theaters? Which is the whole point that we've been talking about this year as the box office is down overall. And there are 3 main factors, 1. Cost, its cheaper to watch at home, 2. can get almost the same quality at home as you can at the theater, and 3. the ability to pause and not have to miss anything if you get interrupted or need to go to the bathroom.

Pricing and economics. Everyone forgets how aghast we were at Iger, a man who has no fear of consumer pricing, launching D+ to 6.99/month. Instantaneously they devalued their back catalogue to historic levels.

The streaming frontier has massively devalued content and it is still a slow road to recovery. I calculated and I am still all in less in raw dollars today than I was for some bills I looked up in 2012. It was 135CAD for internet and cable (no sports, fairly basic, but we had HBO for GoT). Today I’m about 120 and have unlimited fibre, 4k Netflix, Ad Free Disney+/Star (Hulu), Apple TV+, Crunchyroll and Prime. Let alone inflation.

HBO was 15USD 20 years ago. The streaming economics moving forward will all be price increases and that will slowly make theatrical seem less outright egregious. I don’t think theatrical is going completely extinct. Radio didn’t go extinct. There will be a contraction, consolidation and adjustment. Especially if other studios go under and Netflix continues to ignore it.

Edit - and I should mention my 135$ was after the classic retention call bringing it down from 215.

 

[Nevermore525]

I’m pretty down on Disney right now but this seems extremely pessimistic even to me, it may take a few years but I’m confident Disney will find gold somewhere again. Disney is a bit of a train wreck at the moment but they still have a ton of talent, I think (hope?) once the leadership team changes and the culture changes from the top down we’ll have another golden age.

You can say that while at the same time by the end of this year Disney could have the only 5 films that earn over $1B in the last two years (avatar 3 would be 5 in two years for Disney)

Of the 10 $Billion films post reopening of theaters, Disney directly produced/distributed 5 of them, and has some production with 1 of them (Spider-Man).

So yes, not all of their films are hitting and those can be the sole focus, while at the same time they’ve found their own successes as well.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Just so we can understand, and pin this down for future discussion...

What exact metric are you two using to determine that the "economy" in the Summer of '25 is preventing any mega-budget movie from approaching or surpassing the $1 Billion mark like movies did in the summers of '23 (Barbie) and '24 (Inside Out 2)?

Because every economic metric I know of to look at that might show why Americans are staying away from movies for financial reasons shows a similar or better outlook now than in recent summers. Plus the very strong attendance and profits at Disney's theme parks in the USA this spring into summer, as documented by this week's Disney earnings call.

Q2 Annualized US GDP Growth
2023 = +2.4%
2024 = +3.0%
2025 = +3.0%

July US Unemployment Rate
2023 = 3.5%
2024 = 4.3%
2025 = 4.2%

July US Annualized Inflation Rate
2023 = 3.2%
2024 = 2.9%
2025 = 2.7%

July Average US Price For Gallon Of Gas
2023 = $3.71
2024 = $3.48
2025 = $3.15

What metric are you using to determine that the "economy" is not conducive to blockbuster box office sales in the summer of 2025? Especially compared to the summers of '23 and '24?

Gas prices are not a reliable indicator. And the lowest gas prices have been in modern history was during the pandemic, when the economy was hardly booming.

 

[BrianLo]

Box office has often benefitted from recessions. So this is all a bit irrelevant.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Gas prices are not a reliable indicator. And the lowest gas prices have been in modern history was during the pandemic, when the economy was hardly booming.

Yeah, gas prices are typically high when demand for travel is high. Prices often spike on holiday weekends.

But hey, people are going to cherry pick certain stats to try and prove a point.

No mention of course of tax hikes in the form of tariffs. When that results in less discretionary income, people may spend less on luxuries.

Overall, I still think movie tickets are one the cheapest forms of entertainment out there. If I were struggling financially I feel that big ticket items like vacations would be more impacted.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

You can say that while at the same time by the end of this year Disney could have the only 5 films that earn over $1B in the last two years (avatar 3 would be 5 in two years for Disney)

Of the 10 $Billion films post reopening of theaters, Disney directly produced/distributed 5 of them, and has some production with 1 of them (Spider-Man).

So yes, not all of their films are hitting and those can be the sole focus, while at the same time they’ve found their own successes as well.

This is why I’m optimistic for the future, they are currently a better distributor than producer, 2 of those 5 films are Avatar films controlled by Cameron, 2 were produced by Pixar (essentially Disney), and only 1 by Disney itself… they have a great catalog of IP to choose from… they just need to find the right creative people to produce them and then let them be creative on their terms and timeline.

I’ve mentioned this before but Disney currently feels like a company dictated by a release schedule rather than by the final quality of the actual films, if the scripts aren’t ready they’d be better off waiting and releasing nothing rather than releasing mediocre films because they fit the pre-established release schedule.

Cameron will take years to release the quality he wants, I think if Disney were in control of Avatar we’d end up with the first mediocre cut simply because it fits managements schedule.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Hi gang, here's the latest on The Fantastic Four. No surprise, the box office chart below shows it has weak legs.

Nephews and their lovely wives are here for the week, and the big news is that Nephew #1 and his wife are now expecting their first child! I likely won't make it 21 years to teach that kid how to make a proper cocktail, but you can darn well bet I'm going to be there to take him or her to Disneyland for the first time! The nephews have always been very competitive, so Nephew #2 and his wife are now scheming on conceiving.

Pop Culture Temperature Check for Summer of '25: None of the family have any interest in seeing The Fantastic Four or any other movie out currently, and none of them want to go to Disneyland. The robot Walt didn't do it for them. Their summer activities are all about hipster restaurant reservations, family tennis death tournaments, and beach time, with spa sessions and lots of shopping for the girls.. There's no Barbie this summer for me to take them to!

With a $225 Million production budget, this is definitely an Oof.

View attachment 875721

Congratulations on Nephew #1's good news A new baby is always exciting It sounds like you had a wonderful time with the family

 

[Disney Irish]

Pricing and economics. Everyone forgets how aghast we were at Iger, a man who has no fear of consumer pricing, launching D+ to 6.99/month. Instantaneously they devalued their back catalogue to historic levels.

The streaming frontier has massively devalued content and it is still a slow road to recovery. I calculated and I am still all in less in raw dollars today than I was for some bills I looked up in 2012. It was 135CAD for internet and cable (no sports, fairly basic, but we had HBO for GoT). Today I’m about 120 and have unlimited fibre, 4k Netflix, Ad Free Disney+/Star (Hulu), Apple TV+, Crunchyroll and Prime. Let alone inflation.

HBO was 15USD 20 years ago. The streaming economics moving forward will all be price increases and that will slowly make theatrical seem less outright egregious. I don’t think theatrical is going completely extinct. Radio didn’t go extinct. There will be a contraction, consolidation and adjustment. Especially if other studios go under and Netflix continues to ignore it.

Edit - and I should mention my 135$ was after the classic retention call bringing it down from 215.

Price increases will certainly make streaming more on-par long term with movie tickets. However I still think it'll end up being cheaper for a family to watch at home in the long run then it will be to continue to go to the movies. When you can still watch a movie on PVOD at home for less than the cost of one ticket, the economics for a family of 4 is easy. They can watch 4-6 movies at home for the price of one family outing to the theater.

I've long said I thought that theatrical would become more of a niche offering in the long term, and I still believe that.

Also radio didn't go extinct but it no longer is the main form of entertainment. It was propped up by the car culture. But even that is starting to go. We'll see a bunch of the public radio stations close here in the US shortly due to the defunding of public broadcasting. As well as a few other for-profit radio stations closing in recent years due to economics.

 

[BrianLo]

However I still think it'll end up being cheaper for a family to watch at home in the long run then it will be to continue to go to the movies.

Hasn’t this been true since the 90s?

I’m still not convinced theatrical is on its inevitable slow death spiral. As long as the major studios preserve the exclusivity window, that’s the justification for its existence.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hasn’t this been true since the 90s?

Not really, as least not here in the US. At a certain point in the mid-2010s it became cheaper. But going to the movies was still a cheap form of entertainment for under $100 for a family of 4 in most cases up until then. Now you can't even touch that unless you go on a budget days and don't spend on concessions.

I’m still not convinced theatrical is on its inevitable slow death spiral.

I mean when now more than 50% of theater owners polled think its happening sometime in the next 20 years, I tend to listen. But that is just me.

Maybe things will recover, maybe it won't. But to me theatricals best days are behind it, not in front of it.

 

[BrianLo]

Not really, as least not here in the US. At a certain point in the mid-2010s it became cheaper. But going to the movies was still a cheap form of entertainment for under $100 for a family of 4 in most cases up until then. Now you can't even touch that unless you go on a budget days and don't spend on concessions.

What are you talking about? Have you completely forgotten about video rental stores?

Video rentals were infinitely cheaper for our family of six than going to the theatre. A very rare and very special occasion. Going to blockbuster was a regular Friday.

 

[JackCH]

Not really, as least not here in the US. At a certain point in the mid-2010s it became cheaper. But going to the movies was still a cheap form of entertainment for under $100 for a family of 4 in most cases up until then. Now you can't even touch that unless you go on a budget days and don't spend on concessions.


I mean when now more than 50% of theater owners polled think its happening sometime in the next 20 years, I tend to listen. But that is just me.

Maybe things will recover, maybe it won't. But to me theatricals best days are behind it, not in front of it.

Went into and read that Variety article, not sure it should be given an extreme amount of weight. It is a somewhat ambiguous question and even within the article it mentions that some of those execs believe it could adapt and survive in some form, which is what I personally think will happen. It will evolve and adapt but not completely go away.

 

[Disney Irish]

What are you talking about? Have you completely forgotten about video rental stores?

Video rentals were infinitely cheaper for our family of six than going to the theatre. A very rare and very special occasion. Going to blockbuster was a regular Friday.

Funny since Blockbuster ceased operations in 2014 and had been slowly being phased out starting in 2011 after they went bankrupt in 2010.

 

[Disney Irish]

Went into and read that Variety article, not sure it should be given an extreme amount of weight. It is a somewhat ambiguous question and even within the article it mentions that some of those execs believe it could adapt and survive in some form, which is what I personally think will happen. It will evolve and adapt but not completely go away.

Which is why I go back to what I said -

I've long said I thought that theatrical would become more of a niche offering in the long term, and I still believe that.

Do I think theatrical will still be around in 25 years in some form, yes. But will it be the main driver of a studios profit motive for movies at that point, no. The long term economics just don't look to be there. And that is the point.

 

[BrianLo]

Maybe things will recover, maybe it won't. But to me theatricals best days are behind it, not in front of it.

We need to parse out its best days are behind it and that it’s no longer a major growth industry (absolutely) and it will become irrelevant and niche in a short time interval. Those are very different statements.

Funny since Blockbuster ceased operations in 2014 and had been slowly being phased out starting in 2011 after they went bankrupt in 2010.

You can define short how you wish, but as you mentioned streaming killed video rentals within a matter of years. We are many years into this cycle now and theatrical somehow managed to grow in the 2010s.

It tried briefly in the pandemic and unsuccessfully walked back taking on theatrical wholesale. The home market has been challenging theatrical for 40 years now. That was my point that you are trying to really not speak to. Something else disruptive needs to occur, because the home market and theatrical have coexisted for ages. They are not equivalent experiences.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Hasn’t this been true since the 90s?

I’m still not convinced theatrical is on its inevitable slow death spiral. As long as the major studios preserve the exclusivity window, that’s the justification for its existence.

We need to parse out its best days are behind it and that it’s no longer a major growth industry (absolutely) and it will become irrelevant and niche in a short time interval. Those are very different statements.

You can define short how you wish, but as you mentioned streaming killed video rentals within a matter of years. We are many years into this cycle now and theatrical somehow managed to grow in the 2010s.

It tried briefly in the pandemic and unsuccessfully walked back taking on theatrical wholesale. The home market has been challenging theatrical for 40 years now. That was my point that you are trying to really not speak to. Something else disruptive needs to occur, because the home market and theatrical have coexisted for ages. They are not equivalent experiences.

Yep, the theater experience is unique and will likely not be completely supplanted by home video.

It will likely continue a downward trend for several reasons.

A big piece for me is that the home video experience is very good. In the olden days, if you didn't see a movie in the theater you were stuck watching on your 32" CRT television on a VHS tape which cuts out half the picture.

Today, a lower end 65" TV can be found for under $1,000. 4K OLED TVs are within reach for many (most?) consumers. The home viewing experience is good. There just isn't the same necessity to see movies in the theater.

Then you factor in 30 minutes of commercials, disruptive audiences, hassle, and expense.