Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
It's still a very incomplete picture and does not account for residuals, participation, overhead ongoing post theatrical marketing spend, SVOD, PVOD or streaming. Which is why there is a false sense of knowing an additional data point (other than the marketing spend appears standard) does not give us enough to change the approach.

Doubling the numbers we were given pushes more to a 3X multiplier than a 2.5X. That's what Gunn is alluding to ultimately. The cut off isn't really 700M. It's probably closer to that 560 mark.
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The “expansion” on what goes into the initial release math has become a moving goalpost that seems to be interpreted more “liberally” by the minute. It’s going too far into “ancillaries”…which is not a new thing at all
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
So with Stitch hitting $1B, could Disney really be the only studio that'll have $1B+ movie this year (and multiple ones)?

I know we posed this question before, but its now really coming into focus. Stitch, Avatar 3 for sure, and maybe Zootopia?

This is certainly a strange year, one that still looks to me to come under 2024 when the year end totals come in and certainly under 2023 totals (for reference 2024 also came in under 2023).
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
So with Stitch hitting $1B, could Disney really be the only studio that'll have $1B+ movie this year (and multiple ones)?

I know we posed this question before, but its now really coming into focus. Stitch, Avatar 3 for sure, and maybe Zootopia?

This is certainly a strange year, one that still looks to me to come under 2024 when the year end totals come in and certainly under 2023 totals (for reference 2024 also came in under 2023).
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I have JP tracking to 950. I want another week or two before I would confidently rule it out.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
I have JP tracking to 950. I want another week or two before I would confidently rule it out.
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Mmmm…asking a lot it seems
BrianLo said:
We’ll see. But it made 210M last week. If it holds halfway decently it’s practically in your range in 10-14 days.
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But it’s at the 3 week “wall” this week. I know we try to deny that exists around here…but it holds more often than not
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
And that $1.01 for little stitch does look pretty cool. It’s having a good month considering the length since release.

So is dragon…showing the strength of “family” offerings over the boom, pop, bangers
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Mmmm…asking a lot it seems

But it’s at the 3 week “wall” this week. I know we try to deny that exists around here…but it holds more often than not
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I think that’s what I’ve tried to establish. That’s simply not a thing. When movies are still making 9 figures at 3 weeks, there are more 9 figures to go.

What I do think is that we can pretty accurately gauge the endpoint at 3 weeks, but it’s not empirically a cliff.

You were onside Stitch, but offside Moana 2 and they both ultimately played out the same.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
I think that’s what I’ve tried to establish. That’s simply not a thing. When movies are still making 9 figures at 3 weeks, there are more 9 figures to go.

What I do think is that we can pretty accurately gauge the endpoint at 3 weeks, but it’s not empirically a cliff.

You were onside Stitch, but offside Moana 2 and they both ultimately played out the same.
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So not a fan of the law of diminishing returns?

Nothing is really absolute. But I think it may be more an issue of “category” than anything else.

Family movies seem more suitable for legs and that makes total sense. Most of the targeted demo isn’t driving to the theater or paying…so there’s no rush on the part of their “handlers” lb for lb to load opening weeks. And they like repetition.

Not really so for the big action and comic book tentpoles. If you don’t get $400 mil in your first week…I bet the numbers say you have issues.

Not absolute. Certainly not everything falls in the plot line…but on the whole it’s a measuring stick.

The other thing is this Jurassic movie appears to be “meh” city. Which a movie with legs like Maverick was not. Recieved so much better.


I’m more interested in what Superman does and how marvels next crack goes?

I think one is “arrow up” and the other is “down”…with no data to back it up 🤪
 
LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
So with Stitch hitting $1B, could Disney really be the only studio that'll have $1B+ movie this year (and multiple ones)?

I know we posed this question before, but its now really coming into focus. Stitch, Avatar 3 for sure, and maybe Zootopia?

This is certainly a strange year, one that still looks to me to come under 2024 when the year end totals come in and certainly under 2023 totals (for reference 2024 also came in under 2023).
Click to expand...

Definitely possible. Does Downton Abbey have the following? I know that was a huge show for a while, but I never watched nor was I in the group that did so I don't know how big that really was/still is. I think the one that really could give the push would be Wicked part 2 if Superman and Jurassic Park aren't getting there.
 
N

Nevermore525

Well-Known Member
LSLS said:
Definitely possible. Does Downton Abbey have the following? I know that was a huge show for a while, but I never watched nor was I in the group that did so I don't know how big that really was/still is. I think the one that really could give the push would be Wicked part 2 if Superman and Jurassic Park aren't getting there.
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Wicked only has so much potential because outside of US/Canada/UK regions it really isn’t a draw. That and the second act just doesn’t hit as well even among fans of the show vs the first.
 

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