IMHO this whole bidding story is about the number of future eyeballs that can be glued to the screens we stare at all day and nothing else. Those of us here care about parks but I don't think that parks are even a side note in this story to either Disney or Comcast. They both have parks and are using them to make money but parks are not the big driver of future revenue growth ( which drives up the price per share). If neither Disney or Comcast had parks in the US I don't think either would build them today. They are building them in Asia as a way to get their respective IP's wider recognition. If parks were a major growth engine in the US then there would be a bidding for Cedar Fair or Seaworld. I'm still waiting for that story to break on CNBC.
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News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition
- Thread starter ohioguy
- Start date
It is now up to the Fox shareholders. Do they want to accept the Disney offer or not. Based on the SEC filing the Fox Board has determined the risk of the federal government blocking a Comcast deal means they cant accept their offer without the risk of being sued by shareholders. So Comcast can pursue a hostile takeover and go directly to the shareholders and ask them to vote no. This is a good thing and we will know in 4 weeks if Disney wins or Fox loses. I still have to decide which meeting I will go to since they are both at the same time. In any case my vote is to approve the Disney Fix merger and a big than you to Comcast for driving the price up.
happycamperuni
Active Member
It really depends on what Comcast offers over the next week or two. If Comcast comes back with a bid over $80 billion and with guarantees on the DoJ side (i.e. guarantee that they'd do it even if they give up all the domestic assets etc.), then I think Murdochs will have to go to Disney for a counter-offer or match.
Either way, the Murdochs clearly want to speed up the process, so this is a natural step.
Either way, the Murdochs clearly want to speed up the process, so this is a natural step.
Twilight_Roxas
Well-Known Member
Does Comcast ever heard of the word defeated? Its like they only want to win even by bullying.
Stripes
Premium Member
If they do counter. I increasingly believe they'll turn their focus to Sky.
happycamperuni
Active Member
After hearing Disney is willing to sell the $19 billion RSNs, I don't see how Comcast wins Sky without raising the price on the rest.
If you discount $19 billion, that gives Disney way more firepower to fight for Sky, so I don't see any other strategy for Comcast but to raise the price on the Fox assets, then "walk away" to Sky.
It really doesn't sound like Disney and Comcast will work out a "detente" unless we see Comcast bid for Sky next week and Disney/Fox decline to match (which is possible, but after Disney gives up the RSNs, I don't see why they'd give up Sky).
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
I'm kinda lost on what needs to happen next with SKY, Comcast has made a superior bid, SKY has said it is the better bid. UK/EU regulatory agencies have both approved....so what happens now? I had assumed Fox would have made a competing offer by now.
Stripes
Premium Member
Yes, but Comcast without Fox has even more firepower than Disney. I also don't think Disney sees much strategic value in Sky, at least compared to Comcast. The fact that Disney/Fox still hasn't upped their bid is telling to me.
What happens next is that the British Board is investigating how much Disney has to offer based on the increase in their offer for the rest of Fox. The English law is that they have to offer the same price to every stockholder. That is why Comcast has to offer to buy the Fox shares and cant just offer to buy the 61%. Based on the rumors I have heard the TCI request was made at Comcast's request.
happycamperuni
Active Member
Yeah, I do think that one way to defuse the bidding war is for Comcast to just go and bid for 51% of Sky at a premium to the current price and then walk away from the Fox assets.
It sounds like that's what may play out if Comcast just re-bids for Sky if Disney doesn't up their bid over the next 4 weeks.
Indy_UK
Well-Known Member
Disney and Fox both want this deal as much as each other wants it to happen. Disney buys SKY news which allows Fox to go ahead and buy the remaining 61% of SKY and then the whole of SKY will just default to Disney.
$19 billion back from being forced to re-sell the regional sports is a big chunk of change. I imagine that money back will make the Disney shareholders happier.
Also interesting seeing YouTube Videos where Iger and others talk about having a hit list of acquisitions which they wanted to make in 2006. Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm were all on the list. Fox wasn’t but they felt that it’s a good fit. Twitter was on the list but they walked away. I wonder who would be on the hit list next.
$19 billion back from being forced to re-sell the regional sports is a big chunk of change. I imagine that money back will make the Disney shareholders happier.
Also interesting seeing YouTube Videos where Iger and others talk about having a hit list of acquisitions which they wanted to make in 2006. Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm were all on the list. Fox wasn’t but they felt that it’s a good fit. Twitter was on the list but they walked away. I wonder who would be on the hit list next.
Kamikaze
Well-Known Member
Hasbro
Indy_UK
Well-Known Member
Agreed.
I thought Disney would want a game company too but I think they are happy to license the IP out for games.
A toy company was my next thought. Cuts out the middle man. Have them make all their merchandise.
I think Disney wanted Harry Potter but as we all know, J K Rowling wasn’t having it.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
There seems to be some pixie powder interfering with the analysis here...
Why on earth would the fox shareholders NOT want another counteroffer?
This is about money...and in the end...the winner is always whoever throws the most - no matter what jury rigging is going on. At a minimum...it means more haggling and more bloat to the offers.
People aren’t actually believing Rupert Murdoch’s perceived “preferences”, are they?
The old cranky coot has made billions off lying...or is this a secret??
Why on earth would the fox shareholders NOT want another counteroffer?
This is about money...and in the end...the winner is always whoever throws the most - no matter what jury rigging is going on. At a minimum...it means more haggling and more bloat to the offers.
People aren’t actually believing Rupert Murdoch’s perceived “preferences”, are they?
The old cranky coot has made billions off lying...or is this a secret??
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smile
Well-Known Member
would you put it past ol' rupert to hold a grudge over yes?
... not sure i would
but yeah, money talks ...which reminds me of something from a movie......
You are an old man who thinks in terms of nations and peoples. There are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West. There is only one holistic system of systems, one vast and immane, interwoven, interacting, multivariate, multinational dominion of dollars. Petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multi-dollars, reichmarks, rins, rubles, pounds, and shekels. It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet. That is the natural order of things today. That is the atomic and subatomic and galactic structure of things today! And YOU have meddled with the primal forces of nature, and YOU... WILL... ATONE! Am I getting through to you, Mr. Beale?
Stripes
Premium Member
If it was that simple Fox would've accepted Comcast's first bid.
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
@Rodan75 just spent time explaining why Disney got out of the infinity game. Does anyone seriously think they would risk their current position in the CP space to buy a toy maker with some IP?
Twilight_Roxas
Well-Known Member
If Disney gets Hasbro then they would have Power Rangers again.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Money never sleeps, Pal
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
It’s not that simple.
But I bet - cause I’m too lazy to look - that if I went back through the 100 pages and 7 months...
After EVERY disney move...the same handful of people immediately posted “That’s It!!” Probably 4 Times at least...
Which means they’re at least 0-3...maybe this time is the charm?
The point is: trust the greed and let it play out.
Disney paying $80 bil for a fox package will be awful for all of us...they’re gonna extract it from their customers in some fashion every day for 30 years.