News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[seascape]

I work across the road from where the London Resort is apparently going (Bluewater) and they are currently flattening the land for it. The fact that Paramount backed out, they reckon they will get 40K guests a day when it's actually a pain to get to from London and have a budget of £3.3 billion, it's not even going to happen. They'll announce its axed before long.

I'm surprised that Comcast hasn't shown an interest in buying Merlin and owning the U.K. Parks. Thorpe Park is OK because they do add stuff but there's just something about UK theme parks I don't like.

Yeah, probably would staff them with Jeremy Kyle rejects lol

You really think the soon to be number 4 themepark company should buy the number 2 company? I know most people have no idea how big Merlin is but they had attendance of 66 billion growing 7.8% while Universal attracted 49.458 million and grew at 4.4%. Merlin also has 2 expansions in the NYC area being built. Universal better watch out for the number 4 company which attracted 42.88 million and grew at 32.9%. BTW Six Flags has 11 gates being built in China and just purchased some more in the US. If Comcast does not do something soon about expanding Universal Parks they could see themselves the number 5 or 6 company based on Worldwide attendance. I honestly believe that Six Flags will pass Universal in worldwide attendance in the next 15 years as their international growth continues unless Universal purchases another themepark company. But Merlin is not for sale and infact has expressed interest in buying other themeparks. Beijing will be a major addition to Universals attendance but will not equal 11 gates Six Flags is building or what else is being built in China.

Universal and Disney are by far the highest quality parks but are not growing and returning value to stockholders the was Six Flags has.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Fox shareholder urges Murdoch to give Comcast time to beat Disney bid

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...st-time-to-beat-disney-bid-idUSKBN1JO2TB?il=0

TCI Fund Management Ltd, a large Twenty-First Century Fox Inc (FOXA.O) shareholder, has urged Fox executive chairman Rupert Murdoch to give Comcast Corp (CMCSA.O) a chance to top Walt Disney Co’s (DIS.N) $71 billion offer to buy most of Fox’s assets, according to a letter reviewed by Reuters.

The hedge fund, run by Sir Christopher Hohn, owns 7.4 percent of Fox shares and said he disagreed with Fox’s view that Comcast’s bid would come with higher regulatory risk. TCI is “strongly motivated” to support whichever deal came at a higher price.

 

[BrianLo]

Disney is not going to build regional amusement parks. They are incapable of doing that.

WDI would overspend, the place would cost a fortune and the margins would be absolutely terrible.

They build seemingly premium products and charge premium prices to fill premium priced lodging. The last time they attempted shoestring parks we got WDS, DCA and HKDL. Spoiler - all were under-built, underfunded and failed out of the gate. They still cost way more than a regional operator would ever spend and that's going on 20 years ago now when budgets were no where near the astronomical situation they are today.

A regional operator can live with annual attendance of 3-4 million a year, anything WDI touches demands 2-3x times that and 5-10x the budget.

Which leaves us with the only other option, not getting WDI involved at all, which means completely licensing out the IP to some other design group... why on earth is Disney going to do that? The current Fox licenses will stand, but in no way is Bob bringing in this company to stoop down to their level.

Part of his M.O. is running product lean and big. Disney parks are tentpoles of the industry, Bob doesn't do non-tentpoles.

 

[Quinnmac000]

Still not a done deal

https://seekingalpha.com/news/33669...earing-comcast-counter-offer?dr=1#/email_link

 

[Bender123]

Still not a done deal

https://seekingalpha.com/news/33669...earing-comcast-counter-offer?dr=1#/email_link

Its not going to matter. The Disney offer has regulatory approval and a guaranteed price. Any Comcast offer would put a bunch of risj into play that a vast majority of shareholders would never go for, including the unknown of what would be required to be sold off, changes in stock prices (imagine if there is movie or two that bombs or a other loss), an economic downturn, etc...

You would have to be either extremely bold or excessively crazy to wait and risk a loss of value from the government or business.

 

[Quinnmac000]

Its not going to matter. The Disney offer has regulatory approval and a guaranteed price. Any Comcast offer would put a bunch of risj into play that a vast majority of shareholders would never go for, including the unknown of what would be required to be sold off, changes in stock prices (imagine if there is movie or two that bombs or a other loss), an economic downturn, etc...

You would have to be either extremely bold or excessively crazy to wait and risk a loss of value from the government or business.

This isn't Comcast asking...its Fox Shareholders.

 

[Kamikaze]

Still not a done deal

https://seekingalpha.com/news/33669...earing-comcast-counter-offer?dr=1#/email_link

Its done.

Dropping Disney's approved purchase and taking another deal risks not getting approval, which means no sale, which means no money.

Bird in the hand beats two in the bush. Even if this hedge fund just wants the money, they would have to convince basically every single non-Murdoch major owner to drop a done deal for a different one.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I posted that 50 minutes ago lol. It's gonna show up eventually. From now on I'll just post stuff without any links on them.

 

[seascape]

Still not a done deal

https://seekingalpha.com/news/33669...earing-comcast-counter-offer?dr=1#/email_link

So TCI wants to let Comcast have one moreover bid. There 7.4% of the stock should vote no then. The Murdochs will vote for Disney so will the majority of the rest. Now if TCI will guarantee they will buy Fox for whatever Comcast bids in case it gets turned down or agrees to pay interest on the time it takes to get approved then they would be worth listening to. However unless Comcast offers more than $45.00 a share with a breakup fee of 5 billion plus the 1.5 billion fee to Disney, Comcast should shut up and walk away. Anything less than $45.00 a share is not worth the risk to an approved deal. Even then if I were Disney I would ask for a shareholders vote. The tax advantages of the Disney offer are worth 20% and the time value of money is worth something as is the guarantee of a signed and approved deal. The Disney deal is a great deal for Fox Shareholders and it was nice that Comcast made an offer and drove up the price but it is now over.

 

[Bender123]

This isn't Comcast asking...its Fox Shareholders.

Yeah...the Fox shareholders are not going to throw away guaranteed money for a high risk play.

 

[Stripes]

Still not a done deal

https://seekingalpha.com/news/33669...earing-comcast-counter-offer?dr=1#/email_link

The guy sent a letter in May too. Did Fox's board listen to him? No.

 

[seascape]

Yeah...the Fox shareholders are not going to throw away guaranteed money for a high risk play.

Yes, I agree with you. For the rich remember this the state income tax on the gains are not deductible for the vast majority of the rich because of the Federal Cap on State and Local taxes. Then there is the federal Capital Gains tax short oo long term. Under the Disney plan it is 50/50 cash stock so there are some big tax advantages. TCI is not looking at this from the individual tax payers view but at total pretax numbers. Fortunately most investors are smart enough to determine which way to vote on their own. Lets put this up to the owners.

 

[MagicJack78]

This isn't Comcast asking...its Fox Shareholders.

No. It's Comcast. They are trying to sway Fox shareholders. Sales 101. Negotiations sound more credible when the request comes from within the company.

 

[seascape]

Just so everyone knows a little more about TCI, they are a hedge fund.

 

[Rodan75]

You really think the soon to be number 4 themepark company should buy the number 2 company? I know most people have no idea how big Merlin is but they had attendance of 66 billion growing 7.8% while Universal attracted 49.458 million and grew at 4.4%. Merlin also has 2 expansions in the NYC area being built. Universal better watch out for the number 4 company which attracted 42.88 million and grew at 32.9%. BTW Six Flags has 11 gates being built in China and just purchased some more in the US. If Comcast does not do something soon about expanding Universal Parks they could see themselves the number 5 or 6 company based on Worldwide attendance. I honestly believe that Six Flags will pass Universal in worldwide attendance in the next 15 years as their international growth continues unless Universal purchases another themepark company. But Merlin is not for sale and infact has expressed interest in buying other themeparks. Beijing will be a major addition to Universals attendance but will not equal 11 gates Six Flags is building or what else is being built in China.

Universal and Disney are by far the highest quality parks but are not growing and returning value to stockholders the was Six Flags has.

I'm surprised, actually, that Comcast hasn't bought one of the regional operators (that are quickly becoming international operators). While not every park is a gem, there are enough diamonds in the rough regional parks that could become competitive destinations.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

July 27th is when Fox shareholders will vote on it

 

[Rodan75]

July 27th is when Fox shareholders will vote on it

That is good...and adds a clock to any Comcast rebuttal.

There are been various stories between last night and this morning...it looks like I wasn't the only person who was confused by the rest of the domestic regulatory approvals. FCC did officially decline to review and Congress did not review. So it really is just the international regulatory approvals, and it doesn't sound like UK/EU care if they approved the SKY News purchase in conjunction with the Fox Purchase. As @seascape mentioned, the rest should all sail through (if they haven't already, I haven't researched where all of those are).

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Disney shareholders also voting on the 27th

 

[Kingtut]

You really think the soon to be number 4 themepark company should buy the number 2 company? I know most people have no idea how big Merlin is but they had attendance of 66 billion growing 7.8% while Universal attracted 49.458 million and grew at 4.4%. Merlin also has 2 expansions in the NYC area being built. Universal better watch out for the number 4 company which attracted 42.88 million and grew at 32.9%. BTW Six Flags has 11 gates being built in China and just purchased some more in the US. If Comcast does not do something soon about expanding Universal Parks they could see themselves the number 5 or 6 company based on Worldwide attendance. I honestly believe that Six Flags will pass Universal in worldwide attendance in the next 15 years as their international growth continues unless Universal purchases another themepark company. But Merlin is not for sale and infact has expressed interest in buying other themeparks. Beijing will be a major addition to Universals attendance but will not equal 11 gates Six Flags is building or what else is being built in China.

Universal and Disney are by far the highest quality parks but are not growing and returning value to stockholders the was Six Flags has.

IMHO this whole bidding story is about the number of future eyeballs that can be glued to the screens we stare at all day and nothing else. Those of us here care about parks but I don't think that parks are even a side note in this story to either Disney or Comcast. They both have parks and are using them to make money but parks are not the big driver of future revenue growth ( which drives up the price per share). If neither Disney or Comcast had parks in the US I don't think either would build them today. They are building them in Asia as a way to get their respective IP's wider recognition. If parks were a major growth engine in the US then there would be a bidding for Cedar Fair or Seaworld. I'm still waiting for that story to break on CNBC.

 

[seascape]

Disney shareholders also voting on the 27th

It is now up to the Fox shareholders. Do they want to accept the Disney offer or not. Based on the SEC filing the Fox Board has determined the risk of the federal government blocking a Comcast deal means they cant accept their offer without the risk of being sued by shareholders. So Comcast can pursue a hostile takeover and go directly to the shareholders and ask them to vote no. This is a good thing and we will know in 4 weeks if Disney wins or Fox loses. I still have to decide which meeting I will go to since they are both at the same time. In any case my vote is to approve the Disney Fix merger and a big than you to Comcast for driving the price up.