News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

happycamperuni

Active Member
By the way, the assumed value of Fox's RSN's has been $19 billion. This is based on an estimation by MoffettNathanson, which assumed a $2 billion EBITDA and a 10x EV/EBITDA. Fox doesn't give any info with regard to the RSN's performance but that $2 billion is way too high from what I've gathered.
I thought Disney said they were only selling $1bn in EBITDA assets, so that sounds like an overestimate.
 

mikejs78

Premium Member
It’s about risk analysis for you...

But if you peel the banana on many of the quotes here...it’s about wanting a perceived “win” for thy holy magic kingdom and pin lanyard.

I’m not even sure it would be a “win”...anyway.

But when someone accuses Comcast of being “greedy” over and over again...the dust is out...

As if Disney is St. Jude’s 😂😂
As much as I would love to see the X-Men in MCU movies, I'd rather this deal not happen at all. Mergers of this scope are very difficult and take a lot of a company's energy and effort to make successful (not to mention capital). Frankly I think it was really the ABC/Capital Cities merger that ultimately sank Eisner. It took a lot of the focus and energy away from running the rest of the business. Pixar, Marvel, and Lucas were all different in that they were fairly self-contained, smaller acquisitions that complimented Disney well. This one just has so many angles that there's a lot of room for things to go wrong, and it will take a decade before it all settles out.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
As much as I would love to see the X-Men in MCU movies, I'd rather this deal not happen at all. Mergers of this scope are very difficult and take a lot of a company's energy and effort to make successful (not to mention capital). Frankly I think it was really the ABC/Capital Cities merger that ultimately sank Eisner. It took a lot of the focus and energy away from running the rest of the business. Pixar, Marvel, and Lucas were all different in that they were fairly self-contained, smaller acquisitions that complimented Disney well. This one just has so many angles that there's a lot of room for things to go wrong, and it will take a decade before it all settles out.
You do raise some valid points. The Walt Disney Company will be a much larger company with more operations all over the world. However the lessons learned though merging with Pixar, Lucas Films and Marvel will be helpful. In addition following the model and lessons learned by using Parks and Resorts, movies and television as complements to each other. If they do this correctly the combined company is bigger and better than the sum of its parts.
 

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
As much as I would love to see the X-Men in MCU movies, I'd rather this deal not happen at all. Mergers of this scope are very difficult and take a lot of a company's energy and effort to make successful (not to mention capital). Frankly I think it was really the ABC/Capital Cities merger that ultimately sank Eisner. It took a lot of the focus and energy away from running the rest of the business. Pixar, Marvel, and Lucas were all different in that they were fairly self-contained, smaller acquisitions that complimented Disney well. This one just has so many angles that there's a lot of room for things to go wrong, and it will take a decade before it all settles out.

I think Disney has actually done a good job of re-organizing their leadership structure to take this on. You can add the Fox silos into their new Disney organizations and handle the 'ingestion' process by division. And given that there still isn't a ton of overlap in the Fox divisions, you can move them over in their entirety without much immediate meddling or culture shock. Corporate teams like Tax, Accounting, HR, IT are likely to be where the biggest hang-ups are and I'm sure those issues will be ironed out quickly.

If Disney were still the size they were before ABC/Cap Cities I would be more concern. There will still be pain points, but I think they minimized most of those, but we will know more once we know who from Fox is staying.
 

Stripes

Premium Member
I thought Disney said they were only selling $1bn in EBITDA assets, so that sounds like an overestimate.
The actual language is a little bit more complex. The Fox RSNs are kinda separate from the $1 billion.

In the event Disney needed to divest the RSNs, they agreed to divest any and all regardless of EBITDA. Any further divestures would be limited to the $1 billion minus the lesser of A) EBITDA generated by the divested RSNs or B) $500 million.

In other words, Disney was willing to divest all the RSNs plus at least another $500 million in EBITDA generating assets.

Still, that $2 billion figure is way too high.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
As much as I would love to see the X-Men in MCU movies, I'd rather this deal not happen at all. Mergers of this scope are very difficult and take a lot of a company's energy and effort to make successful (not to mention capital). Frankly I think it was really the ABC/Capital Cities merger that ultimately sank Eisner. It took a lot of the focus and energy away from running the rest of the business. Pixar, Marvel, and Lucas were all different in that they were fairly self-contained, smaller acquisitions that complimented Disney well. This one just has so many angles that there's a lot of room for things to go wrong, and it will take a decade before it all settles out.

I don’t think abc “sank” Eisner...you know full well they made all their profits from espn for 15 years...

But the attention it took and issues did a lot a
Damage to other divisions due to neglect...notable the film division...which would have been utterly destroyed had they not partnered up with Pixar
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Looks like Moody’s is giving Comcast an official out in the bidding war narrative. https://variety.com/2018/biz/news/comcast-disney-sky-21st-century-fox-moodys-1202862077/
The value of Sky is much higher than Hulu so if it were a straight trade Disney would have to receive something else or have. Universal pay several billion dollars more. A trade should be all the movie rights for Marvel characters, the themepark rights to all the Marvel Characters and the Spiderman ride. Hulk can be rethemed to something else. This of course would drive Universal fans crazy.
 

DisneyFan18

Well-Known Member
The value of Sky is much higher than Hulu so if it were a straight trade Disney would have to receive something else or have. Universal pay several billion dollars more. A trade should be all the movie rights for Marvel characters, the themepark rights to all the Marvel Characters and the Spiderman ride. Hulk can be rethemed to something else. This of course would drive Universal fans crazy.
They could retheme it to Transformers, as in Universal Beijing, they seem to be building a land with a Hulk Clone themed to Transformers?
 

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
The value of Sky is much higher than Hulu so if it were a straight trade Disney would have to receive something else or have. Universal pay several billion dollars more. A trade should be all the movie rights for Marvel characters, the themepark rights to all the Marvel Characters and the Spiderman ride. Hulk can be rethemed to something else. This of course would drive Universal fans crazy.

I wasn’t taking their suggestion about a Hulu -SKY swap literally, I was assuming there would still be cash involved.

I’m more curious that Moody’s would be willing to be Solomon in this situation. There does seem to be an effort going on to give Comcast a way out without shame (not that being fiscally responsible should create shame).
 

IMDREW

Well-Known Member
Sorry, this has probably been already mentioned before, but, @marni1971 and others, how will Disney Parks be affected by this deal if it goes trough? It’s so much money, and I can imagine Disney parks being hurt by it. Will they stop investing again like some years ago? New rides and lands getting cancelled?
 

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