Disney’s Mufasa - the lion king

[Disney Irish]

It’s also inherently imprecise. Not arguing against it as a handy tool to guesstimate, but I also wouldn’t present the numbers as hard fact or even profitability vs. not.

Remember this is not a tool created by us, it was created by the industry. And its been tested time and again by both our members and by the industry and has proven to be fairly accurate. Its the reason why the industry continues to use it to this day and continues to adjust it as the industry changes. As mentioned previously in this thread it used to be that 2x was used up until the late 2010s, and has been adjusted to 2.5 due to changes in the industry.

Guideline.

Its more than a guideline, again there is a reason why the industry created it and uses it.

It’s not a failure, full stop.

Failure in sense that it barely will make a profit. Not the success that Disney expected.

It also sets up the next potential blockbuster: The Lion Queen (after at least 4 years have passed.) Genpop is now, or soon will be, acquainted with/rooting for Simba’s daughter. The dads don’t seem to fare too well in this family.

Will it? You're making an assumption that Disney will greenlight that.

 

[Disney Irish]

The point was movies with “legs” have a certain draw/characteristic to them…

Mufasa doesn’t have it. Like poor Hailee (on the Daisy Ridley path to fame and fortune now)…

Well just kick dirty on it.

I’m petty fascinated to see how 2025 goes for the Disney box office slate? A lot more titles this year. Could be some knockouts and some bombs…

I guess your definition of "legs" and everyone else's is completely different then. As the graph provided by @BrianLo shows its been "legging" it out this whole time.

Again all I've said is that I think it'll have one more good weekend of gains before it completely "flatlines". I don't know why that is such an issue to you. The numbers will speak for themselves by the end of the weekend.

 

[BrianLo]

You understand that it started out way underachieving…therefore it throws all the graphs off?

Yea, yes I do understand. You were using the wrong verbiage. The movie had a flop worthy opening and exceptional legs. Which is exactly what makes it fun to watch.

Ok

I like to do “hailee” thing because if you recall (and most will claim ignorance) in June of 2023 it was suggest by a few (usual suspects) that there was a vast racist conspiracy against that movie that was artificially depressing that movies take. It’s up thread if you want to go down cherry tree memory lane…

Or maybe…as was also said at that time…it was just a bad idea nobody wanted that resulted in a forgettable movie? Cause no one even remembers it except for the clearances bins at Walmart.

The bigots didn’t rule the day. The failure at the studio did.

Peeps like my boy Caspy did the “poor Hailee” thing…like it was his niece. So cynical and distasteful.

Unfortunately the movie was successful domestically and failed internationally. I dont have much more to say other than I was defending you. You are free to keep summoning the actress, but most of us think it’s In poor taste at best. So you’ll be doing it with that knowledge next time.

 

[BrianLo]

Guideline.

Sure, I don’t really care about the semantics. It’s most certainly an estimate only, no dissent from me!

 

[Disney Irish]

I could see Den of Thieves' 2 winning the weekend. But who knows, too much good football on this weekend to get that demo out to the theater

Previews aren't starting out too well -

Not a good start if its to take the weekend.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sonic had 297, Nosferatu had 434, A Complete Unknown had 349 per screen yesterday…. It is happening industry wide.. as somebody who goes to the theater weekly…my wish is for a greater variety of smaller movies to get a shot…. But that is the state of the industry right now

Yikes

No wonder the theaters are bankrupt

Not enough releases?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It also sets up the next potential blockbuster: The Lion Queen (after at least 4 years have passed.) Genpop is now, or soon will be, acquainted with/rooting for Simba’s daughter. The dads don’t seem to fare too well in this family.

Your best post ever

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Big game Jimmy outclassed by drew the dim witted

 

[DKampy]

Yikes

No wonder the theaters are bankrupt

Not enough releases?

To be fair it is a weekday…there would be empty theaters on weekdays even pre-Covid…. The films will pick up on the weekend..,although history tells us this weekend is usually one of the slowest of the year for box office

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To be fair it is a weekday…there would be empty theaters on weekdays even pre-Covid…. The films will pick up on the weekend..,although history tells us this weekend is usually one of the slowest of the year for box office

Last weekend coming off a holidays/vacation type week was SOFFFF

Today is day 21…let’s see if it “climbs the wall”?

 

[Moka]

Deadline confirmed Mufasa crossed $500M this morning

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Will it? You're making an assumption that Disney will greenlight that.

I said potentially. It’s there for the taking. TLK is now a franchise, not just a film. The lore has been fleshed out, and the story was told well, regardless of CGI, etc.

So in a world where they are playing it safe and going for sequels, let everyone digest this. Let the people who didn’t see it in theaters see it on Disney+ and then on ABC. I suspect many will think it better than they expected. I still don’t understand why fans of the original resisted seeing this in theaters.

There are different avenues they could take. There could be one movie focusing on Simba‘s family, in which his daughter is growing up and proves herself. I prefer they didn’t let Simba get trampled like all the others, but if he dies without a son, maybe there’s a discussion about letting her take over. Then she has a son who is the next lion King. And on and on we go.

If the Mufasa film actually did tank, I don’t know if any of that could work.

Those or other ideas also might work as TV shows, which could justify less expensive animation options, and work with the films as other series have done.

I don’t think we’ve seen the last of TLK in theaters.

 

[Disney Irish]

Deadline confirmed Mufasa crossed $500M this morning

Here's the article if anyone wants to review it -

‘Den Of Thieves 2: Pantera’ Delivering Lionsgate First No. 1 Win Since 2023’s ‘Hunger Games: Songbirds & Snakes’ – Friday Box Office Update

Gerard Butler sequel 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' is the first big wide release of 2025, eyes No. 1 win at $14M

deadline.com

 

[Disney Irish]

I said potentially. It’s there for the taking. TLK is now a franchise, not just a film. The lore has been fleshed out, and the story was told well, regardless of CGI, etc.

So in a world where they are playing it safe and going for sequels, let everyone digest this. Let the people who didn’t see it in theaters see it on Disney+ and then on ABC. I suspect many will think it better than they expected. I still don’t understand why fans of the original resisted seeing this in theaters.

There are different avenues they could take. There could be one movie focusing on Simba‘s family, in which his daughter is growing up and proves herself. I prefer they didn’t let Simba get trampled like all the others, but if he dies without a son, maybe there’s a discussion about letting her take over. Then she has a son who is the next lion King. And on and on we go.

If the Mufasa film actually did tank, I don’t know if any of that could work.

Those or other ideas also might work as TV shows, which could justify less expensive animation options, and work with the films as other series have done.

I don’t think we’ve seen the last of TLK in theaters.

Dunno, if we're talking about Disney taking the safe route then I don't see them trying to take another crack at it due to how Mufasa performed. Had it performed better then I'd agree with you. But Mufasa underperformed, and underperformed badly compared to TLK in 2019.

But maybe you're right, stranger things have happened. After all we are getting a live action Moana only 10 years after the animated original and only a little over year after the sequel. So who knows.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Deadline confirmed Mufasa crossed $500M this morning

Believin' is breaking Even!!!

 

[Moka]

But maybe you're right, stranger things have happened. After all we are getting a live action Moana only 10 years after the animated original and only a little over year after the sequel. So who knows.

Encanto didn't even break even at the BO, but was revived by the soundtrack (which Mufasa's soundtrack itself has given the film a boost and has been hot) and VOD/Disney+ streaming numbers. Encanto is now receiving a sequel.

Soundtrack streaming, VOD/Disney+ streaming, boosts in Lion King merch sales, boosts to older installments of the IP, boosts in Broadway ticket sales - it all matters and shows Disney interest in the franchise. Mufasa has big help when it comes to being determined a success to the execs. It has many outlets to pull from. It's why I just can't compare TLK to other Disney remakes/franchises. The outlets aren't as big or strong as TLK. It's kind of just on its own level.

Profitability will not end when it leaves theaters, and the final BO total isn't always everything.

Stranger things have happened, as you say. I wouldn't give up on it personally.

 

[Disney Irish]

Encanto didn't even break even at the BO, but was revived by the soundtrack (which Mufasa's soundtrack itself has given the film a boost and has been hot) and VOD/Disney+ streaming numbers. Encanto is now receiving a sequel.

Soundtrack streaming, VOD/Disney+ streaming, boosts in Lion King merch sales, boosts to older installments of the IP, boosts in Broadway ticket sales - it all matters and shows Disney interest in the franchise. Mufasa has big help when it comes to being determined a success to the execs. It has many outlets to pull from.

Profitability will not end when it leaves theaters, and the final BO total isn't always everything.

Stranger things have happened, as you say. I wouldn't give up on it personally.

Encanto is a different beast all together, its more an exception than the rule, so that doesn't really count.

Also no doubt it has many sources to pull from in terms of revenue streams. We're talking about greenlighting another live-action sequel/prequel based on Mufasa's box office performance however. And I'm just not seeing it right now. That doesn't mean it won't happen, I'm just not convinced at this point that Disney has the appetite to try to draw from that watering hole again. Especially when Mufasa will have earned less than half of what TLK did in 2019 when the final numbers coming in. It just underperformed too much in my opinion for them to greenlight another live-action sequel/prequel for the franchise. I also think waiting 4-5 years as suggested by Tony is too long to wait if they were to do something. So if we don't hear it being greenlit over the next few months then I think the live-action Lion King train might have come to its final stop. But we shall see....

 

[Moka]

It's a totally fair assessment, and it will be a wait and see game for sure. There's just no way for us to tell what they're thinking. I still believe this could be a sustainable franchise if they had more budget control, but we know they don't. Even a $150M budget would bring its break even points way down.

I also think waiting 4-5 years as suggested by Tony is too long to wait if there were to do something. So if we don't hear it being greenlit over the next few months then I think the live-action Lion King train might have come to its final stop. But we shall see....

We first found out about a new Lion King in September 2020, so we will know for sure by very late 2025, I think.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

But Mufasa underperformed

I think it’s a fair discussion, but I think this point is over emphasized. If it did 300 million, that would be one thing. If it’s doing 600 million, that’s quite another. You can throw one out there that breaks even and advances the franchise. That’s a win (although they didn’t exactly develop the character of Simba’s daughter very much - it was a smart link to the present/to the beloved characters - much like Wicked did, for broader appeal. It’s a foot in the door for Simba lovers vs. a more “unknown” Mufasa world.

The reason I said four years was more political than anything else. Maybe hear less about “gender swapping” or whatever. That’s why I say another film could set that up.

As a 53-year-old man who was never much into the lion King, I am more interested in the franchise now. A new film would now be on my “see at the theater” list.

But that’s obviously just one opinion.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think it’s a fair discussion, but I think this point is over emphasized. If it did 300 million, that would be one thing. If it’s doing 600 million, that’s quite another. You can throw one out there that breaks even and advances the franchise. That’s a win (although they didn’t exactly develop the character of Simba’s daughter very much - it was a smart link to the present/to the beloved characters - much like Wicked did, for broader appeal. It’s a foot in the door for Simba lovers vs. a more “unknown” Mufasa world.

The reason I said four years was more political than anything else. Maybe hear less about “gender swapping” or whatever. That’s why I say another film could set that up.

As a 53-year-old man who was never much into the lion King, I am more interested in the franchise now. A new film would now be on my “see at the theater” list.

But that’s obviously just one opinion.

If I put on my imaginary Studio Exec hat for a moment, taking away any personal attachment I have to Disney or the franchise....

A sequel/prequel that pulls in less than half the original is not a good look. TLK pulled in $1.6B in 2019, 6 years later Mufasa will have pulled in likely ~$560ish (maybe). That is what, ~33% of the original... Not a good return on investment, its WAY underperformed. This is what Execs look at, is it going to be worth it long term to greenlight another one based on the performance of the previous ones. The bigger the percentage from one installment to the next keeps the franchise going. For example the reason they kept greenlighting all the Fast movies is because they keep making money at the box office, though its had diminishing returns the later it went on, and why they are stopping after the next one.

But I'm not telling you something you don't already know. Just pointing it out as its not apparent from the numbers they would automatically just say yes to another one unlike other franchises.

From a creative standpoint, sure, it would be interesting to see where they could take the story. Have it go further down the Lion King family tree. See how much better the technology can get on the CGI, etc.