DarkMetroid567
Well-Known Member
I always wanted a brothaa
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Disney’s Mufasa - the lion king
- Thread starter BrianLo
- Start date
I think 560 is a very low call based on holds. I don’t know what the imaginary line in the sand is and it’s definitely not yet at it. But if we go like 7…750 (not saying it will) and it explodes onto the D+ scene like Elemental, that might actually change the executive calculus.
All things considered they would make a sequel to those levels if there wasn’t these built in expectations. Especially since word of mouth is obviously positive, it leaves a potential follow up a lot more leeway that a poorly reviewed 1B plus earner gets.
Like you said this would be a massive exceptional territory… and one I won’t even remotely call until a month or two of D+ numbers and a much more robust box office finishing line.
Moka
Well-Known Member
All I know is there are experienced analysts out there saying that it'll flirt with the $700M mark when all is said and done.
I'm not going to lie, (if it's not already clear) I am biased, was a huge fan of everything Lion King growing up and still am today. It's why I was over the moon hearing about Paris and praying for something at DAK. I hated TLK 2019. I really loved this one, despite its obvious flaws. Life is too short to get worked up over the errors of these films. I'm dying to see what they'd put together given the ending of this one.
I'm rooting for this. Hard.
I'm not going to lie, (if it's not already clear) I am biased, was a huge fan of everything Lion King growing up and still am today. It's why I was over the moon hearing about Paris and praying for something at DAK. I hated TLK 2019. I really loved this one, despite its obvious flaws. Life is too short to get worked up over the errors of these films. I'm dying to see what they'd put together given the ending of this one.
I'm rooting for this. Hard.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
I still haven’t seen it. Slight correction: I put it on in my WDW hotel room a few weeks ago on Christmas night. I fell asleep shortly after Mufasa got swept away. Too soon to form an opinion, didn’t hate it, whatever. When it came out, I heard they didn’t change the story, and I don’t love CGI, so I thought, “Why bother?”
I think I was in my early 20’s when the original animated came out, so it wasn’t a “growing up” movie for me, it was more of a, “That’s kid stuff” kind of thing. Didn’t see it until years later.
I’ve seen bad CGI in everything from general action movies to Star Wars. I don’t know why Disney catches extra criticism for it; it’s everywhere. It’s a new normal for movies, even though in some ways it’s not an improvement. I generally dislike it.
I wonder if Mufasa would have been received differently had it been hand-drawn. I also can see why they would do it the new way. Really can’t call it “live action.” It’s just a different, quirky kind of animation. So is anime, and I don’t like that either, but I wouldn’t go watch an anime film and complain about the way the mouths flap when they’re talking - that’s baked into the cake already.
I appreciate your perspective as someone invested in the original. You “hated” the 2019. That must factor into Mufasa’s numbers.
MickeyMouse10
Well-Known Member
Looks like Disney has their new excuse when the movie flops.
It cost at least 200 to make it and 100 million in marketing. So by those probably fudged estimates it would have to make 600 million to just breakeven.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
There is no flopping. They win either way at this point. So many of you get so hung up on the box office, and so many films have proved that metric irrelevant over the last century.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
I think it has a good chance of clearing $700 million worldwide. Still a huge drop off from 2019's Lion King, but a major sigh of relief for Disney considering its opening weekend.
But if this is the best case scenario to date for a Disney live-action remake sequel, then I don't think they'll try for a third Lion King or some other title unless as you say it does big numbers on streaming.
brideck
Well-Known Member
I do think there's a big difference between a sequel that would advance the timeline into new territory and a prequel like this, where the story details may not be known, but the general outcome is already in the can because, well, you've seen The Lion King. A decent chunk of the potential audience is going to view that type of story as not essential. [Star Wars is kind of its own thing in this space, both in fandom and in the years between movies, if anyone's about to cite those prequel numbers to me.]
Considering where the discourse on this movie started and the release date slippage, etc. it's pretty clear that Disney wasn't necessarily expecting a ton here. Heck, they fast-tracked Moana 2 into the same holiday season likely in part because of how vulnerable they thought Mufasa looked.
I think making a profit and landing the plane somewhere between $600m-$700m on this one falls into the exceeds expectations category. There is no way, once they had this in development, that they were actually expecting anything like TLK's numbers, especially considering no one's really sure why (similar to Inside Out 2) that movie made as much as it did.
Moka
Well-Known Member
$540M. Yeah, looking like it'll leg out and sniff $700M.
No matter how many people want to try and spin it, there is literally no film ever that can cross $700M and be considered a disappointment. There is no flop here. It did what it needed to do. At that point you're just salty that a film succeeded.
Unless you're Avatar. That'd be a disappointment. That's about it.
100%. It is very well known that prequels aren't as strong at the box office. Even David A. Cross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research made a statement on Mufasa's opening. “Audiences like the movie, and family animation has shown excellent holding strength this year,” says Gross. “This story is not finished yet. This a prequel story, and prequels start slower.” And what do ya know? It legged out. For goodness sake, you're talking about a prequel about characters that died 30 years ago. The fact that this has the potential to cross 700 is solid. The comparisons, once again, to 2019 are useless. That year was an anomaly for how many films just exploded and became $1B hits, entirely different theatrical climate.
No matter how many people want to try and spin it, there is literally no film ever that can cross $700M and be considered a disappointment. There is no flop here. It did what it needed to do. At that point you're just salty that a film succeeded.
Unless you're Avatar. That'd be a disappointment. That's about it.
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Disney Irish
Premium Member
But wait, I was assured by @Sirwalterraleigh that it had flatlined, had no legs, and was done. Seems the real definition of legs has shown up to teach some here the real meaning.
I'll admit I thought this movie wouldn't do well, stuck to that stance even up to this week. But now I'm willing to eat crow say it'll end up being a solid run, may not be exactly what Disney had expected but will still be solid.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
What happened to Sonic 3? I thought international was going to save it and make it more successful than Mufasa? At this point its barely going to even make the same as the 2nd one while Mufasa is making way more, maybe even $200-300M WW more by the end of its run.
Serpico Jones
Well-Known Member
Favreau’s movie sucked.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Thank you for the insightful addition to the conversation.
Serpico Jones
Well-Known Member
Had to get it off my chest. As blatant a cash grab as I’ve ever seen.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I let you know the day I pay attention to whoever the hell Luis Fernandez is?
Hold your breath.
Crossing $500 ensures $700?
Ok…let’s see it play
brideck
Well-Known Member
The thing about cash grabs is that they only work if the audience is willing to go along with it. Apparently the masses really saw something in the 2019 movie. I was just reminding myself of its performance this morning, and it's incredible how well it did everywhere -- the US, Europe, Latin America... everywhere. Clearly it had that je ne sais quoi, regardless of what our individual feelings about it were.
brideck
Well-Known Member
Close to anyway. Because yeah, trendlines are a thing. A movie's performance will never just drop to zero and vanish, unless it gets pulled out of theaters.