AND you take the chance of cannabilizing the attendance from the other parks.
Cannibalization happens, but it doesn't mean the whole resort loses. AK brought in six million in its first year, cannibalized 3.3 million from the other parks, BUT . . . the resort was up 2.3 million overall.
Here's some numbers to consider:
A new fifth gate could bring in approximately 7 million guests a year.
Of this 7 million, perhaps 4 million would be cannibalized, and 3 million would be added to WDW overall attendance.
The thing with DHS is that this little park would have problem expanding its annual attendance from 10 million to 14 million (the same as MK!?), should Carsland go there by removing BLT and LMA. There simply isn't enough room, unless they go the parking lot route, or across World Drive, in terms of expansion.
But, with a fifth gate, you grow WDW's attendance, AND cannibalization helps the other parks some so that refurbs can be done more easily, and relieves pressure at the lines, making the vacation experience overall better for the average guest.
We all know that they *couldn't* shutdown Splash for refurb at MK last winter due to a loss of capacity at MK, even though Splash breaksdown all the time. WDW needs capacity, and the best way to do that is with a fifth gate.
From an artistic standpoint, a lot of diehards think that DHS needs to gut two attractions and build Carsland. They might be right from an artistic standpoint, but not at all from an operational, or financial standpoint. WDW gets a lot of foreigners and others who don't mind LMA and Backlot. Of course, I would think they would spend a couple hundred millions to upgrade these attractions before trashing them, and we haven't seen plans for upgrading Backlot.
Let's see, 3 million new guests at a fifth gate, how much does the average guest spend again?