BrianLo
Well-Known Member
DVC really needs to be thought of as its own parallel business. Not as something in competition or taking away from parks investment. It's entirely separate and on the rare occasion actually contributes something positive to the resort experience, like the Skyliner.
Even with economic disaster, they have a required natural cadence to open new product against. It's like saying even in an economic downturn, they'll still make more Mickey Ice Cream Bars. Of course they will. We didn't lose a potential E-ticket because they made pretzels and ice cream to sell.
RIV almost assuredly will sell out by end of 2026. Poly could do gang busters and go as early as 2027, more likely 2028. Meaning they need *something* by 2027. The two options were a quick room conversion on an existing DVC followed by reflections or Reflections by 2027 and it now seems like it's the latter. Even with an economic slow down this doesn't stop DVC, it just delayed the need for more inventory by like 6 months at the worst. Even in the Great Recession, DVC sold, just at a slower pace.
Now DCL is actually a bit more capital intensive and at some level perhaps in theory a land is being cut or funding shunted away from the parks to build a new ship. That said, they've already sort of made that call. There's a new class and a planned 12B DCL spend over the next decade, including the three under way.
