Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[TP2000]

Orlando has had a tourist boom since at least 2011, with increases mainly driven by domestic demand. However, re: intl tourism:
In 2011, Orlando had 3.8 mln intl visitors.
In 2013, Orlando surpassed NYC as an intl tourist destination, with 59 mln visitors overall (now 66 mln Orlando visitors).
(can't find more current Orlando intl numbers).

In 2015, Florida's overall intl tourist numbers at 11.2 mln show: 1. Canada - 3.9 mln ; 2. UK - 1.7 mln; 3. Brazil - 1.47 mln (down 10% from 2014). [VisitFL]

Orlando Sentinel is saying that hotel occupancy rates are down 2% in May year-over-year.

So the softening attendance from earlier this year is going to continue (as will discounts to draw tourists)...more numbers likely out in Aug-Sept. Tourism as an industry is subject to the latest trends, so it is questionable what impact recent events will have in the medium-term 2017-18, and how solidified Orlando is a both a domestic and international tourist destination, as tourists sometimes skip years between Orlando/ WDW visits.

And yet, international tourism overall wasn't declining for much of America in 2015, and looks strong in 2016 thus far.

In 2015 Anaheim saw an increase of 6.6% for its International Tourists, to 2.7 Million. Non-Local American tourists were up 3.1% in '15 for Anaheim, to 19.8 Million. Mexico, Canada, China, United Kingdom, Australia & Japan, were the top five countries who visited Anaheim in '15. http://visitanaheim.org/article/anaheim-facts-and-figures

California overall saw similar increases of international and domestic tourists, at 17.0 Million International Tourists and California is already projecting international visits in 2016 will increase 3.3% over that 2015 number. http://industry.visitcalifornia.com/Find-Research/Latest-Tourism-Research/

The recent strong attendance and spending reports for the January-March '16 quarter from the Disneyland Resort in the last DisCo financial report seem to back that up. "Attendance at our domestic theme parks was relatively flat, as an increase at Disneyland Resort was offset by a modest decrease at Walt Disney World Resort." https://ditm-twdc-us.storage.googleapis.com/q2_fy16_earnings.pdf

To review, this appears to be a Florida story rather than a national story.

Florida 2015 International Tourists: 11.4 Million, decline of 10% from 2014
California 2015 International Tourists: 17.0 Million, increase of 4% from 2014

And we can't really blame any operational change on WDW for that. For whatever reason, tourism has recently declined to Florida overall while remaining strong or growing in other traditional "vacation" states. As much as I'd like to blame Frozenstrom or #ThanksShanghai on that, I don't think we can.

 

[natatomic]

On the official apps...

Forbidden Journey 15 mins
J park 5 mins
Spiderman 15 mins
Gringotts 10 mins
Transformers 10 mins
Simpsons 15 mins


Everest 5 mins
Dinosaur 10 mins
Kilamanjaro 10 mins

Toy Story Mania 30 mins
Tower of Terror 30 mins
Rock n rollercoaster 60 mins


Youch all around. Animal Kingdom though

Animal Kingdom is almost always slow on the 4th, Christmas Day, and NYE. Most people go to a park that has special fireworks, and Animal Kingdom doesn't do anything different than they do any other day of the week. The day following those holidays is usually quite busy at DAK though.

I have definitely seen <10 minute waits on Christmas and NYE at DAK in the past, especially this time of day when everyone else is picking out a spot for fireworks at the other parks

 

[JassiSidhu2000]

On the official apps...

Forbidden Journey 15 mins
J park 5 mins
Spiderman 15 mins
Gringotts 10 mins
Transformers 10 mins
Simpsons 15 mins


Everest 5 mins
Dinosaur 10 mins
Kilamanjaro 10 mins

Toy Story Mania 30 mins
Tower of Terror 30 mins
Rock n rollercoaster 60 mins


Youch all around. Animal Kingdom though

We must be looking at two different apps.

I have Toy Star Mania at 10 mins, Tower of Terror at 5 mins.

 

[gmajew]

It's not just Orlando, there are reports that California isn't having the best of seasons either.

Universal has been rammed though. Go look at wait times - 3 hours for Harry Potter Forbiden Journey. No Disney attraction had more than a half hour wait -unheard of at this time.

Lol where did you get that figure? I looked at both today all day and not one was long. Space mountain got to 180 min but that would be overstated.

 

[Brad Bishop]

Lol @ some of those you listed....

I was surprised the hub wasn't mentioned.

 

[me_stitch]

i just hope this trend lasts all summer, I'll be there first week of August

 

[SorcererMC]

Florida 2015 International Tourists: 11.4 Million, decline of 10% from 2014

This is an interesting comparison re: CA vs. FL, but I need to correct this part - Brazilian tourists were down 10% from 2014. I realize it's not clear from how I wrote my post, I was in a rush. Off hand I can't find the 2014 Intl tourists stat for FL but will update when I find it. [Edit: 11.5 mln intl tourists to FL in 2014]. I may have read that this year Brazilian tourists are down 35% from 2015 but don't quote me on that.

1Q2016 Intl Tourism for FL is down 6.3% w/ 2.6 mln intl tourists; while domestic tourism increased ~7% to 25.5 mln.

Overall, FL tourism 1Q2016 increased to 29.8 mln (up 6.6% YoY). The numbers don't bear out the decline....yet.

 

[Tom Morrow]

This is the slowest 4th of July I've seen in the almost decade I've lived here. In the parks you wouldn't even know it's a holiday with special fireworks offered.

 

[SorcererMC]

And yet, international tourism overall wasn't declining for much of America in 2015, and looks strong in 2016 thus far.

In 2015 Anaheim saw an increase of 6.6% for its International Tourists, to 2.7 Million. Non-Local American tourists were up 3.1% in '15 for Anaheim, to 19.8 Million. Mexico, Canada, China, United Kingdom, Australia & Japan, were the top five countries who visited Anaheim in '15. http://visitanaheim.org/article/anaheim-facts-and-figures

California overall saw similar increases of international and domestic tourists, at 17.0 Million International Tourists and California is already projecting international visits in 2016 will increase 3.3% over that 2015 number. http://industry.visitcalifornia.com/Find-Research/Latest-Tourism-Research/

The recent strong attendance and spending reports for the January-March '16 quarter from the Disneyland Resort in the last DisCo financial report seem to back that up. "Attendance at our domestic theme parks was relatively flat, as an increase at Disneyland Resort was offset by a modest decrease at Walt Disney World Resort." https://ditm-twdc-us.storage.googleapis.com/q2_fy16_earnings.pdf

To review, this appears to be a Florida story rather than a national story.

Florida 2015 International Tourists: 11.4 Million, decline of 10% from 2014
California 2015 International Tourists: 17.0 Million, increase of 4% from 2014

And we can't really blame any operational change on WDW for that. For whatever reason, tourism has recently declined to Florida overall while remaining strong or growing in other traditional "vacation" states. As much as I'd like to blame Frozenstrom or #ThanksShanghai on that, I don't think we can.

I was looking at the 2QFY2016 and attendance threads earlier today, trying to get a benchmark for an expected decline in WDW attendance, so thanks for the link. I, too, was curious about Disneyland, CA - will intl tourists still want a Disney vacation, just not Orlando? So thanks for this post.

I'm going to bicker a little on your conclusions that tourism is remaining strong in the big picture, per the CA Travel & Tourism Forecast (the Tourism Economics Report on the VisitCA site):

Total visitation to California is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2016, following a 2.6% expansion in 2015 which outperformed our previous forecast. The longer-term outlook for California travel has been downgraded, particularly in the international inbound segment.

International visitation growth has softened on a strong US dollar and weakening demand drivers in some of California’s primary markets, such as Canada, China, and several European economies. Inbound visitation is headed for moderate growth of around 3.8% over the forecast horizon
​

CA also showed a -5.8% decline in Canadian tourists, which is interesting b/c they are an important segment to Orlando....if Canada tourism to Orlando/FL declines, while Brazilian, UK, and US tourism declines....the outlook for WDW worsens.

Edit: Canadian tourism to FL is -2.4% for 1Q2016.

​

 

[SMS55]

Prices are the biggest factor. I remember when 10 years ago, a Florida Resident seasonal pass was $200 and a night at a value resort was no more than $70 during the value season. Seasonal or Silver passes as they are called now have almost doubled to $350 and I'm not seeing where i can get the discount I used to get to renew. It's hard to get even a value resort for under $120. Where's the value there? Where in the past I would go up when ever I got the urge, now, we're taking fewer trips and maybe staying a day longer but over all going less days that we used to. We always eat off site and bring in sandwiches as a way to save. We would often do a character dinner like Chef Mickey's, but it's insane now. I remember when Chef Mickey's was $21 about 12 years ago. It's over $40 now. That's robbery. The food isn't even that good. I would honestly say most food on site isn't that great to begin with. We're at the point where we're considering not renewing and scaling back to a trip a year maybe. It just sucks because I have a 5 year old daughter. She loves it.

 

[Sonconato]

Curious to hear your take on DAK at night? It was pretty cool back a few years back when it was on the evening EMH. There is a lot more to do now. But back then it did seem lie the park emptied out when the EMH started up and we had the park to yourselves.

We did go to AK again tonight to avoid the 4th of July crowds at the other parks. I think that was a wise decision on our part because it continued to get slower as the night wore on. We left around 8:00 pm so we couldn't tell you what it's really like past then. We crossed paths with some CMs that we know that work at MK and they said they were staying until it closed and had no interest in fighting the crowds at any of the other Parks. One of them mentioned MK reached capacity this morning but we hadn't heard that. We went on Kilimanjaro Safari twice, about an hour apart and we literally walked on both times. The first time we had a FP and certainly didn't need one the second, in fact, they were asking which seats we wanted to sit in on the trucks. It was extremely HOT so we didn't see all that many animals nor did we want to stay around all that long. We do like that they are staying open later but there isn't really that much that is new to see yet. I'm sure it will get better. The following are some photos from around 6:30 pm and then we caught a faint rainbow over Expedition Everest on our way out at 8:00.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

We did go to AK again tonight to avoid the 4th of July crowds at the other parks. I think that was a wise decision on our part because it continued to get slower as the night wore on. We left around 8:00 pm so we couldn't tell you what it's really like past then. We crossed paths with some CMs that we know that work at MK and they said they were staying until it closed and had no interest in fighting the crowds at any of the other Parks. One of them mentioned MK reached capacity this morning but we hadn't heard that. We went on Kilimanjaro Safari twice, about an hour apart and we literally walked on both times. The first time we had a FP and certainly didn't need one the second, in fact, they were asking which seats we wanted to sit in on the trucks. It was extremely HOT so we didn't see all that many animals nor did we want to stay around all that long. We do like that they are staying open later but there isn't really that much that is new to see yet. I'm sure it will get better. The following are some photos from around 6:30 pm and then we caught a faint rainbow over Expedition Everest on our way out at 8:00.
View attachment 149572 View attachment 149573 View attachment 149574

Great pictures and sounds like you made a wise choice.

 

[donsullivan]

This is the slowest 4th of July I've seen in the almost decade I've lived here. In the parks you wouldn't even know it's a holiday with special fireworks offered.

I completely agree. Just got back from Epcot and it was a relative Ghost Town today for a July 4th. It didn't feel like anything more than a normal slightly busy Sunday crowd levels. Normally a July 4th will have parking in the 2 eastern lots which were completely empty. They didn't even fully fill the 4 lots they normally use every day. When I got there at around 4, Spaceship Earth had a standby wait of 10 minutes.

 

[Sonconato]

Great pictures and sounds like you made a wise choice.

I should have mentioned that there is certainly a lot more entertainment, at least in Harambe Village, that we really like. It's something that seems to always be getting better at AK, meanwhile, there is less and less at Epcot. We are really enjoying the longer hours at AK and look forward to future attractions.

 

[brent2124]

Prices are the biggest factor. I remember when 10 years ago, a Florida Resident seasonal pass was $200 and a night at a value resort was no more than $70 during the value season. Seasonal or Silver passes as they are called now have almost doubled to $350 and I'm not seeing where i can get the discount I used to get to renew. It's hard to get even a value resort for under $120. Where's the value there? Where in the past I would go up when ever I got the urge, now, we're taking fewer trips and maybe staying a day longer but over all going less days that we used to. We always eat off site and bring in sandwiches as a way to save. We would often do a character dinner like Chef Mickey's, but it's insane now. I remember when Chef Mickey's was $21 about 12 years ago. It's over $40 now. That's robbery. The food isn't even that good. I would honestly say most food on site isn't that great to begin with. We're at the point where we're considering not renewing and scaling back to a trip a year maybe. It just sucks because I have a 5 year old daughter. She loves it.

I agree prices are crazy, but your value resort quote is way off, I was able to book Sports at under $100 for the night of the 4th and Caribbean Beach for $138. Maybe you don't know how to see the discounts?

 

[FigmentForver96]

I was also at Epcot tonight and I concur with this observation. Astonishingly low crowds across the park with reasonable wait times for the major attractions. The only time it truly felt crowded was right after fireworks, but that's given. Overall I had a nice two days for my first time at Epcot and MK for this holiday.

Much better then a few years ago. I was never able to get into Magic Kingdom so spent the day at Epcot. Rode Nemo and Sorian and waited 40 minutes for the first and three hours for the second. I found a tight spot right in front of American Adventure which worked to my advantage and discovered the best 4th of July tag ever.

 

[DrummerAlly]

I just got the final total for my trip for my family of 4 and my mother for a week at AoA in September and despite planning and knowing what I was getting into, it was $1k more than I originally thought we would spend. I'm happy to pay more if it means not standing in lines all day, but the prices are now high enough such that we will visit once ever 3 to 4 years rather than every 1 or 2 years like we would have if prices were reminiscent of what they were a few years ago. We land somewhere in the top 10-15% of household income earners in the US and the cost of this trip is too high for me to do again soon. If I'm feeling this way, I can't imagine how most people feel when they go to price out their vacations. I'm not surprised crowds are down (and I don't entirely think its a bad thing).

 

[Darth Sidious]

This is the slowest 4th of July I've seen in the almost decade I've lived here. In the parks you wouldn't even know it's a holiday with special fireworks offered.

I definitely agree, the parks were pretty "slow" for July 4th. Waits weren't unreasonable and I actually was able to ride Space Mountain multiple times with no wait on Sunday.

 

[Bob Harlem]

MK didn't even get close to capacity yesterday.

 

[rael ramone]

I was also at Epcot tonight and I concur with this observation. Astonishingly low crowds across the park with reasonable wait times for the major attractions. The only time it truly felt crowded was right after fireworks, but that's given. Overall I had a nice two days for my first time at Epcot and MK for this holiday.

Sounds like leaving the blackouts for July 4th was as wise a choice as Ron Burgundy drinking that warm milk....