Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[Kylo Ken]

Seriously, but hard not to notice when they do crazy chants during queue, pre-rid, post-ride, and exiting ride.

For a moment there I was wondering if I was at MK or a soccer game lol

 

[21stamps]

Will crowds be larger come the end of August till Thanksgiving? That's usually the slower seasons then have higher prices / lower crowds thanksgiving till New Years ?

If the theory of price increase is keeping crowds away then that should translate into lower crowds at that time. Especially since park hours are shorter, and there are not any discounts the week of thanksgiving. Oddly though, free dining could carry through Thanksgiving depending on check in date.

I'm hoping there will be lower crowds that week, and 2 weeks after!

 

[Alejandro]

Will crowds be larger come the end of August till Thanksgiving? That's usually the slower seasons then have higher prices / lower crowds thanksgiving till New Years ?

I know that my next trip will be in September 2017, really makes no sense to pay that much more.

 

[21stamps]

I think there are a few things that can be added to Iger's claim, I think you've touched upon one or two of them:
- Air Travel was more expensive until sometime in the early 1980s when Reagan pushed for deregulating the airlines (interesting side note: his opposition claimed that planed would be dropping out of the sky w/o government regulation! Planes didn't drop, prices did.) I remember my dad flying a lot for government work and it was always crazy expensive. Like you average family would never fly and only those were flying for government or business did.
- Interstate travel: The interstate system wasn't completed. I remember parts of it where it just ended and you had to get on state or US routes. This made travel harder / take more time.
- 1970s Oil Embargo.
- 1970s recession (pretty much the entire decade was economic crap)
- Credit cards weren't in wide use. This made travel more cumbersome in that you had to carry a bunch of cash or traveler's checks.
- The other thing to consider, specifically with Iger and his family: You make more, you spend more. They were living on Long Island which from everything I've heard has always been a posh place to live. There's expense with that - overall costs, going costs, taxes, etc.

Because of all of the above, people tended to travel more "local", like a nearby state with some special feature like mountains, lakes, or beaches instead of all the way down the coast or, in Iger's case, across the country. It's much like today how Europe, for a lot of folks, is just not someplace they think they'll ever travel to. One cool thing is that this is kind of opening up over the last 20 years or so.

I'm just saying money or not all of these things played into it. The 1970s stuff maybe just past Iger's prime time of going with his family as a kid so consider that.

Agree with this. Assuming "disposable income" because you think a family is at a higher income level isn't always accurate.

If 2 families have the exact same income, one is paying for a child's college tuition, the other has their child take out loans- do both families have same amount of money left over? Nope.
There are plenty of examples, I just chose one.
Mortgages, car payments, spending habits, these are all part of the equation. Not just the amount of someone's salary.

 

[wogwog]

I will be happy to step in for anyone who doesn't like the heat.. I live for temps in the 90s and sadly don't have too many of those days as I live in Massachusetts... Just think of snow, and 98 degrees will sound blissful

I feel your pain. I did three winters on projects in Massachusetts. I have been in Central Florida many years now and will take the heat any day over snow.

 

[Daveeeeed]

Attendance being lower might not be a bad thing for the Walt Disney Company. Many people are now buying a tier lower annual pricing due to the price increases so people can't go in the summer as much. Hotels aren't going to be filled as much because people from Florida (or people that go a lot) won't be filling it up. And if this is because of Pulse, the WDW Alligator Attack, Economic issues with Brazil & GB, The dozens of Terrorists attacks that have happened, unemployment, Disney not adding anything significant, or Universal Studios then as long as there isn't another recession in the U.S. Summer attendance being lower might not be a big deal as long as profits are higher. Anyone know what was the last number Disney gave for its theme parks division profits?

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

If the theory of price increase is keeping crowds away then that should translate into lower crowds at that time. Especially since park hours are shorter, and there are not any discounts the week of thanksgiving. Oddly though, free dining could carry through Thanksgiving depending on check in date.

I'm hoping there will be lower crowds that week, and 2 weeks after!

I'm there the first of December at The Poly Villas - hoping the same thing.

 

[tirian]

For a moment there I was wondering if I was at MK or a soccer game lol

It just sounds like, "Beeda Beeda AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!!!"

 

[SorcererMC]

Attendance being lower might not be a bad thing for the Walt Disney Company. Many people are now buying a tier lower annual pricing due to the price increases so people can't go in the summer as much. Hotels aren't going to be filled as much because people from Florida (or people that go a lot) won't be filling it up. And if this is because of Pulse, the WDW Alligator Attack, Economic issues with Brazil & GB, The dozens of Terrorists attacks that have happened, unemployment, Disney not adding anything significant, or Universal Studios then as long as there isn't another recession in the U.S. Summer attendance being lower might not be a big deal as long as profits are higher. Anyone know what was the last number Disney gave for its theme parks division profits?

2QFY2016 P&R Revenues (in mlns) 3,928 vs 2QFY2015 3,760; +4% change

2QFY2016 P&R Operating Income (in mlns) 624 vs 2Q2015 566; +10% change

Edit: From 2015 10k
2015 P&R Revenues (in mlns) 16,162 vs 2014 15,099; +7% change
2015 P&R Operating Income (in mlns) 3,031 vs 2014 2,663; +14% change

Found here: https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/#reports

 

[21stamps]

Ok. I'll follow your lead and take this to a personal level, and I have no problem explaining where I am coming from, given the topic at hand. (I've tried to avoid talking or limit my remarks about the US economic picture and what has happened to the middle class and the American Dream b/c others have covered it, and being an election year, it's a political hot potato.)

For those who could care less and would avoid the wall of text, and so I don't derail the thread from the focus on attendance

Spoiler

I'm not yet 40 (and female, but I have a Mickey avatar). I grew up in a solidly middle-class family in the Midwest, both of my parents had a graduate degree (math) but there were 7 of us over 20 years on one income, so not upper middle class lifestyle at all. My father's family was struggling middle-class in 1940-50s NYC, 4/5 kids rec'd Master's, 2/5 worked on Wall St or related so upward mobility to the upper class. My mother's side was upper class, my grandfather went to an Ivy League school on scholarship and became a civil engineer and worked for two companies post-college, becoming President and Vice President of each of them (I don't see this happening today but you could consider John Lasseter, for example). All of my aunts and uncles had at least a Bachelor's, and all of my siblings and I do (7/7). We have achieved varying degrees of success, 4/7 including myself in business/finance/econ fields (also 2 engineers), although money was not talked about in my household growing up. Our success was not handed to us and we worked for it (by varying degrees), but we all benefited from what I would call, 'educated familial background' (one of the reasons why it's hard for first-gen college kids to be successful if they didn't have that). Despite degree inflation, I'm a strong believer in education as a path to success, but I don't think it should be the only successful pathway (eg skilled trades, military service, etc. - also in my family). Off the top of my head, most Americans have some college (think 50-60%), while ~30% graduated college. Master's level+ is at 10% range nationally (and one of my siblings has an MBA).

Standard vacation for us was driving to FL and going to WDW in 1980s and early 1990s, ie, we had a Florida vacation to beaches and springs, so not just a Disney one. About every other year or two.

I have no illusions about how unique my family story is (both success and tragedy), and my own good fortune/misfortune, nor do I judge others for their 'station in life' as I have experienced poverty as well, and fortunes change (you can't tell by looking!). When I went back to school for my bachelor's, per US Natl Edu statistics my chances of graduating were <20%, yet I graduated with honors, grad school wasn't an option for me. I apologize if it comes off as though I am being judgmental- but I have an intl economics background and it is run-of-the-mill/standard fodder to talk about it (also intl terrorism). I am intrigued by current events, and how they might impact TWDC/ WDW.

BTW, the 2008 econ crisis is already having undesirable effects on what is attainable for the current generations, eg harder to maintain middle class status due to increasing costs, and most millennials are postponing having children due to econ circumstances.

It sounds like we are pretty similar in age. I think one thing with Millennials and a lot of Gen X is people just don't want to have kids as early as previous generations did. Not bc we "can't" afford it, but bc we just want to do other things first.
I refused to even think about getting pregnant before age 32. I didn't want to get married before age 30. What I wanted to do, and did- have plenty of disposable income, live by a work hard play hard philosophy, travel the world- be able to jump on any 'last minute deal' that interested me, achieve a level of success that I was happy with.

After that then I would be ready and willing to change my lifestyle and raise a child. I absolutely love this lifestyle as well-motherhood is amazing!
Pretty much everyone I know was the same, I also know there are other people who choose a different route- neither is right or wrong. What's so great about this day and age- women don't "need" and aren't "expected" to get married or have children at a younger age. We have so many options, and are taking advantage of them.

As so many have said on this thread- travel is more attainable than ever in recent years. Add lower flight prices with credit card rewards and we have a lot more opportunities than our parents did.

I just think it's dangerous to state things like "most are waiting to have a family due to financial reasons". I think our overall mindsets and life goals are just different now than the generations before us.

 

[SorcererMC]

Thank you for your response and whole post.

I just think it's dangerous to state things like "most are waiting to have a family due to financial reasons". I think our overall mindsets and life goals are just different now than the generations before us.

This is reflected in the US econ data, and public opinion research since 2008. At present, more milennials (age ~22-34) are living at home with parents longer for the first time in over 50+ years. (getting this from a recent Brookings Institution or Pew Research Center study, can't recall which). It's troubling. And you are correct in that milennials are pursuing other goals, eg education, before having a family...they are prolonging it (b/c that higher education is so important in today's economy). My point is that there are long-term social effects from econ downturns that aren't immediately captured (or reported).

Edit: Generally speaking, economic mobility is not what it used to be. If you (general) grew up middle class, then you will likely stay middle class, although there are increasing pressures. But if you grew up in the lower class, it's harder to make it into the middle class. It wasn't always the case. There is also a change in perception as to what a 'middle class lifestyle' truly is, and how that is financed (income, savings, debt, etc.)

 

[21stamps]

Thank you for your response and whole post.


This is reflected in the US econ data, and public opinion research since 2008. At present, more milennials (age ~22-34) are living at home with parents longer for the first time in over 50+ years. (getting this from a recent Brookings Institution or Pew Research Center study, can't recall which). It's troubling. And you are correct in that milennials are pursuing other goals, eg education, before having a family...they are prolonging it (b/c that higher education is so important in today's economy). My point is that there are long-term social effects from econ downturns that aren't immediately captured (or reported).

Edit: Generally speaking, economic mobility is not what it used to be. If you (general) grew up middle class, then you will likely stay middle class, although there are increasing pressures. But if you grew up in the lower class, it's harder to make it into the middle class. It wasn't always the case. There is also a change in perception as to what a 'middle class lifestyle' truly is, and how that is financed (income, savings, debt, etc.)

Cost of college/university is ridiculous. I'm on the same page with you as that. I think the amount of student debt is horrible. 100k used to get a stellar education..not the case at all anymore. High school education is now close to that. It's absolutely crazy.

But as a woman, I'll take this day and age over any other. I love that more females have degrees than ever before. I also just do not believe and have not seen actual proof that women are waiting longer to have a family mostly (key word) due to said cost of education. I will totally concede that it does have a lot to do with your geographical area and how you were raised, but even that is changing.

You're right about the change in perception with what middle class is and isn't. We also have Sooo many added expenses than previous generations, electronic devices, data plans, cars cost so much more now. I mean look at something as simple as a child's birthday party- when I was a kid my parents gave out standard invitations, the kid's came to either my house or the swim club, we had cake, ice cream, snacks, played pin the tail on the donkey and maybe beat on a piniata.
Now- personalized photo invites. Extravagant themed cakes and snacks, renting out an indoor trampoline park or the like. Craziness. But we all do it...bc everyone else is.lol.

Although I personally have stopped with the bento box lunches. It's very few and far between than my kid will get a dolphin shaped sandwich and star shaped fruit these days. I just couldn't handle it anymore. We all got through childhood just fine without shaped fruit and sandwiches, right?!

Spending as a whole has gotten out of control for our generation. Disney vacations included.

My main point is- Unfortunately, companies know that we are spenders - especially when it comes to our children, more than any other generation before, so they will all try to capitalize on it.

 

[Daveeeeed]

2QFY2016 P&R Revenues (in mlns) 3,928 vs 2QFY2015 3,760; +4% change

2QFY2016 P&R Operating Income (in mlns) 624 vs 2Q2015 566; +10% change

Edit: From 2015 10k
2015 P&R Revenues (in mlns) 16,162 vs 2014 15,099; +7% change
2015 P&R Operating Income (in mlns) 3,031 vs 2014 2,663; +14% change

Found here: https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/#reports

Thanks, that's more important than attendance.

 

[SorcererMC]

Cost of college/university is ridiculous. I'm on the same page with you as that. I think the amount of student debt is horrible. 100k used to get a stellar education..not the case at all anymore. High school education is now close to that. It's absolutely crazy.

But as a woman, I'll take this day and age over any other. I love that more females have degrees than ever before. I also just do not believe and have not seen actual proof that women are waiting longer to have a family mostly (key word) due to said cost of education. I will totally concede that it does have a lot to do with your geographical area and how you were raised, but even that is changing.

You're right about the change in perception with what middle class is and isn't. We also have Sooo many added expenses than previous generations, electronic devices, data plans, cars cost so much more now. I mean look at something as simple as a child's birthday party- when I was a kid my parents gave out standard invitations, the kid's came to either my house or the swim club, we had cake, ice cream, snacks, played pin the tail on the donkey and maybe beat on a piniata.
Now- personalized photo invites. Extravagant themed cakes and snacks, renting out an indoor trampoline park or the like. Craziness. But we all do it...bc everyone else is.lol.

Although I personally have stopped with the bento box lunches. It's very few and far between than my kid will get a dolphin shaped sandwich and star shaped fruit these days. I just couldn't handle it anymore. We all got through childhood just fine without shaped fruit and sandwiches, right?!

Spending as a whole has gotten out of control for our generation. Disney vacations included.

My main point is- Unfortunately, companies know that we are spenders - especially when it comes to our children, more than any other generation before, so they will all try to capitalize on it.

Yes, this is what I'm talking about. If you were to ask my family members to describe their lifestyle, they would say 'middle-class', when in fact it is 'upper middle'. But an economist measures all of those income, savings, debt variables and compares that to a standard 'basket of goods' to determine affordability for certain costs (no, I don't remember the formulas).

Perception vs. measurement is what I think the controversy is here.
Edit: And TWDC is definitely interested in knowing who their consumers are and what their avg total spend is, w/ certainty.

 

[SorcererMC]

Thanks, that's more important than attendance.

I'm glad you asked b/c I've been meaning to look it up but didn't get to it yet.

 

[21stamps]

Yes, this is what I'm talking about. If you were to ask my family members to describe their lifestyle, they would say 'middle-class', when in fact it is 'upper middle'. But an economist measures all of those income, savings, debt variables and compares that to a standard 'basket of goods' to determine affordability for certain costs (no, I don't remember the formulas).

Perception vs. measurement is what I think the controversy is here.
Edit: And TWDC is definitely interested in knowing who their consumers are and what their avg total spend is, w/ certainty.

Everyone is, the company I work for included. We provide so much training on "Gen Y personalities and spending habits". (Including late gen X'rs. Because this generation is spending more than any other- all they care about is 'perceived value'. They want personalized service, they want to celebrate their individualism, they want luxury at an in reach cost, most of all they want efficiency and convenience, and they will pay for it if that perception is there.

Edited to add- Let's use cars as an example since I mentioned their cost earlier.
Ask a 50 year old person if they will finance a car for 7-8 years. Most will say "No!" A lot will even say no to 6. I'm willing to bet 99.9% will not have an 8 year car loan.
Now go ask a 35 year old how long their car is financed for- most will say 6 or 7. Some will say 8.
Disney provides something similar- You what a Disney vacay? You can have it! Here- open a vacation savings account with us, get a chase Disney visa!
None of those scenarios are financially wise, but too many people do them. You can't fault a company for someone else's willingness.

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

I think it was pretty self-explanatory.

Clearly not. Or perhaps its a cultural thing, but Im uncertain why some one would feel emotional discomfort to the level of cringing based on a post on a message board about someone with no personal connection.

Or is it a tad of the RADA's?

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

The posters are implying that Iger is lying, or his parents were lying to him. Based only on what they can google, with no knowledge of the family's day to day budget, or mindset about what was or was not affordable.

People using the internet to speculate. Wow who knew.

 

[The Mom]

Yes, this is what I'm talking about. If you were to ask my family members to describe their lifestyle, they would say 'middle-class', when in fact it is 'upper middle'. But an economist measures all of those income, savings, debt variables and compares that to a standard 'basket of goods' to determine affordability for certain costs (no, I don't remember the formulas).

Perception vs. measurement is what I think the controversy is here.
Edit: And TWDC is definitely interested in knowing who their consumers are and what their avg total spend is, w/ certainty.

Now I think we're on the same page. Perception is everything in deciding whether or not something is affordable. .

 

[The Mom]

People using the internet to speculate. Wow who knew.

Well, I can use the internet to speculate that you might enjoy an adult beverage or two.