Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[ChipNDale79]

Alot of my Disney fanatic friends I know are doing beach vacations this year - cheaper to rent a house and split the costs and still have fun.

That's exactly what we're doing this year. Last year, my parents, sister and her family, and my family all went to disney together, all 10 of us. The same week this year, we're all renting a beach house together. The main reason, the cost.

We enjoyed disney last year, but the money spent by all 3 groups was a lot, now we are taking it back a little bit this year.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

WDW:

Universal:

 

[21stamps]

Others may disagree but my take on it:
It is a combination of those factors, spring attendance was already down slightly (intl tourists down). Orlando tourism in general - after recovering from 2008 recession that hit 2009 attendance, w/ 2010-11 returning to avg (or above) attendance, and 2012-15 booming w/ both NFL and UO Harry Potter opening.

It's very unlikely that Disney will freeze or roll back current prices (barring a catastrophic economic meltdown). They will offer discounts (eg on room and dining) to draw tourists.

Re: pricing. I suspect that the avg FL tourist (age 35-54+ w/ an avg household income of $100,000+) who has visited in recent years is now snubbing their nose at the product being offered (or otherwise not finding value in it, and waiting for more additions), especially in light of recent events which are only exacerbating the issue.
[Edit: I believe that Millennial families want to go to WDW, but only the affluent ones (~15-20%) can afford it right now. It's definitely not akin to Walt's Disneyland anymore].

This is what always confuses me when I read something like this-
Disney World has never been affordable to all.
If you went as a child, stayed at the Contemporary or Poly, ask your parents- they won't tell you it was a "low cost vacay". The difference back then was it usually was not a week or more. You go to the beach for a week or so, and then Orlando for 4 nights to hit Disney and sea world, and later universal as well. This is what my family and all of the people I know did- that doesn't make it the norm, but I'm willing to bet during the 80s and early 90s this is how most people traveled to WDW.

Then it became it's own destination, where you could stay on property and have enough to do for a week or more. Even so, for me it will never be our only portion..last year we followed 9 nights at Disney by 7 nights at the beach, this year we are combining it with a cruise. I can't go and not see the ocean!!!lol 9 nights was my longest stay at WDW, and I'll never do it again.

But as for people growing bored with the same attractions- a WDW vacay is not about Me, it's about my Child, if kids don't get sick of the same rides at an amusement park every week, I doubt they'd get sick of Disney once per year without any new "big" rides. I know that I never did!

I personally don't want WDW to become an IoA type spot, I love them both for different reasons.

 

[fillerup]

Orange County Comptroller Martha Haynie issued her monthly press release re' May 2016 Tourist Development Tax (i.e. Bed Tax) collections. Tax revenue increased 4.4% year over year.

Part of her statement:

TDT collections received by Orange County for the hotel collection month of May 2016 were $18,557,400. "These strong numbers for May should be a sign that there is a good summer tourist season ahead. As the County continues to pay down its current obligations, we can begin long range planning for the future," stated Haynie.

 

[SorcererMC]

Orange County Comptroller Martha Haynie issued her monthly press release re' May 2016 Tourist Development Tax (i.e. Bed Tax) collections. Tax revenue increased 4.4% year over year.

Part of her statement:

TDT collections received by Orange County for the hotel collection month of May 2016 were $18,557,400. "These strong numbers for May should be a sign that there is a good summer tourist season ahead. As the County continues to pay down its current obligations, we can begin long range planning for the future," stated Haynie.

Very good, thanks for posting this.

Yes, they were still forecasting a strong summer, and Orlando Intl Airport was expecting a 14.5% increase.

 

[SorcererMC]

This is what always confuses me when I read something like this-
Disney World has never been affordable to all.
If you went as a child, stayed at the Contemporary or Poly, ask your parents- they won't tell you it was a "low cost vacay". The difference back then was it usually was not a week or more. You go to the beach for a week or so, and then Orlando for 4 nights to hit Disney and sea world, and later universal as well. This is what my family and all of the people I know did- that doesn't make it the norm, but I'm willing to bet during the 80s and early 90s this is how most people traveled to WDW.

Then it became it's own destination, where you could stay on property and have enough to do for a week or more. Even so, for me it will never be our only portion..last year we followed 9 nights at Disney by 7 nights at the beach, this year we are combining it with a cruise. I can't go and not see the ocean!!!lol 9 nights was my longest stay at WDW, and I'll never do it again.

But as for people growing bored with the same attractions- a WDW vacay is not about Me, it's about my Child, if kids don't get sick of the same rides at an amusement park every week, I doubt they'd get sick of Disney once per year without any new "big" rides. I know that I never did!

I personally don't want WDW to become an IoA type spot, I love them both for different reasons.

This generally reflects my experience as well, and those of my friends/family members, who also fit the FL tourist profiles (both GenX and Millenial). I was surprised after going back in 2008-10 to see what had changed, and wanted to know more about how/why...found these boards. After looking at the VisitFL data, I can see why there has been so much consternation or anger about Disney raising prices the way they have...but it seems like the fact is that the middle class isn't going on vacation in FL anymore, only the affluent are, and that is a sea change as far as I'm concerned. Kids won't get sick of going, but their parents/grandparents will get sick of paying for it, and just go elsewhere - especially for the affluent who will travel internationally. Disney has made itself more susceptible to the vagaries of the tourist industry, all the while ignoring them b/c 'we're Disney'.

 

[RSoxNo1]

WDW:

Universal:

I think more accurately, this is Universal:

 

[21stamps]

This generally reflects my experience as well, and those of my friends/family members, who also fit the FL tourist profiles (both GenX and Millenial). I was surprised after going back in 2008-10 to see what had changed, and wanted to know more about how/why...found these boards. After looking at the VisitFL data, I can see why there has been so much consternation or anger about Disney raising prices the way they have...but it seems like the fact is that the middle class isn't going on vacation in FL anymore, only the affluent are, and that is a sea change as far as I'm concerned. Kids won't get sick of going, but their parents/grandparents will get sick of paying for it, and just go elsewhere - especially for the affluent who will travel internationally. Disney has made itself more susceptible to the vagaries of the tourist industry, all the while ignoring them b/c 'we're Disney'.

The affluent will take their kids to Disney when little, and also travel internationally. I don't think the two are mutually exclusive.

I left South Florida in late 2012 (but still visit regularly), Florida (in general) is and will probably always will be a destination for the "middle class". I don't see that ever changing.

 

[SorcererMC]

The affluent will take their kids to Disney when little, and also travel internationally. I don't think the two are mutually exclusive.

I left South Florida in late 2012 (but still visit regularly), Florida (in general) is and will probably always will be a destination for the "middle class". I don't see that ever changing.

No, it's not mutually exclusive, but almost 2/3 of FL vacationers make $75,000+ (definitely upper middle class); FL still captures the largest share of vacationers among states at 16% (also - CA, NY, HI, and AK. I consider Hawaii and Alaska outliers b/c I think it is more of a 'once in a lifetime' trip for most people.) But I do think that seasoned tourists will walk away from a WDW vacation comparing it to those places, and say 'that's not the level of service/luxury that I'm used to'. And if it's not up to par (eg concierge service), they will complain - loudly to the manager, and quietly to their friends (or vice versa).

That is to say, perceived value is crucial. It may have already been alluded to in this thread, but in terms of what Disney can do to rectify that problem - I recommend that they invest in their frontline CMs, for them to be knowledgeable and experienced, b/c a skilled CM can make all the difference in that perception of value...and they bear the brunt of guest dissatisfaction. (Yes, I know cuts/layoffs are probably in the pipeline and 'first hired, first fired').

 

[Brad Bishop]

No, it's not mutually exclusive, but almost 2/3 of FL vacationers make $75,000+ (definitely upper middle class); FL still captures the largest share of vacationers among states at 16% (also - CA, NY, HI, and AL. I consider Hawaii and Alaska outliers b/c I think it is more of a 'once in a lifetime' trip for most people.)

Just FYI: AL is Alabama and I read that, before I got to the Alaska (AK) part and thought, "Why is everyone vacationing in Alabama?? Does Montgomery have something going on?" Although I think you're right in the rest of your assertion in that Alabama is probably a "once in a lifetime" kind of trip.

I await your angry PMs.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I think more accurately, this is Universal:
View attachment 149930

 

[SorcererMC]

Just FYI: AL is Alabama and I read that, before I got to the Alaska (AK) part and thought, "Why is everyone vacationing in Alabama?? Does Montgomery have something going on?" Although I think you're right in the rest of your assertion in that Alabama is probably a "once in a lifetime" kind of trip.

I await your angry PMs.

haha - oops, I should know better, thanks. I'm distracted right now. Fixed.

 

[ford91exploder]

Long term, I'm wondering of the possibility of the Marvel deal was a mistake regardless of price.

Reason: Old Man Ike is now a major shareholder of $DIS. The more power he gets, the more likely the cuts will be deeper and much more aggressive.

Crowds down? Calls for a cut.
Crowds back up? Calls for a cut.
And cuts everywhere else in $DIS business units...

As far as the parks go, lower crowds can be a positive or negative based on how you do the parks.. basically if the cuts that WILL accompany the lower crowds will decrease your enjoyment more then the less people in the pathways may increase it.

Marvel itself I think was a win, Keeping Ike Perlmutter was a strategic mistake as he's the one who drove Marvel into the ground in the first place because his go to tool has always been cuts, Worse Perlmutter will probably be the next $DIS CEO.

 

[ParentsOf4]

This is what always confuses me when I read something like this-
Disney World has never been affordable to all.

If you went as a child, stayed at the Contemporary or Poly, ask your parents- they won't tell you it was a "low cost vacay".

Adjusted for median income, a night in a Tower Room at the Contemporary went for today's equivalent of about $200/night in the 1970s and early 1980s.

For someone in a factory job (I'm old enough to remember when the United States had lots of them ), a stay at the Contemporary or Polynesian was a stretch but within reach.

There was a reason that the hotels were 100% occupied even when it was just the Magic Kingdom.

This changed when Eisner became CEO in 1984.

My 3-day hopper ticket in 1983 cost $35 with tax, about $85 today. That's $20 less than a one-day, one-park ticket today.

There once was a time when WDW really was much more affordable.

 

[ford91exploder]

Adjusted for median income, a night in a Tower Room at the Contemporary went for today's equivalent of about $200/night in the 1970s and early 1980s.

For someone in a factory job (I'm old enough to remember when the United States had lots of them ), a stay at the Contemporary or Polynesian was a stretch but within reach.

There was a reason that the hotels were 100% occupied even when it was just the Magic Kingdom.

This changed when Eisner became CEO in 1984.

My 3-day hopper ticket in 1983 cost $35 with tax, about $85 today. That's $20 less than a one-day, one-park ticket today.

There once was a time when WDW really was much more affordable.

Not to mention a far higher quality experience and places like the Poly were places to be 'seen' by celebrities of the day, Not the 'would not catch me dead there' that exists today.

 

[ford91exploder]

Yes, I know the threat of drastic cuts is real (and why panic is short-sighted)....Disneyhead'71 said that they are looking at Jan '17 as the next real challenge (b/c they must have some estimates on the holiday attendance already). IMO, Disney would be wise to try to increase the spending of the domestic and in-state visitors while cutting opex, eg if locals know that crowds are down they may flock to the parks instead of avoiding it, I don't know if there are sufficient numbers for that though (who wants to go in the middle of July when it's hot and miserable and you can go any other time?). I'd like to think it would rebound in the holiday season, but it could also snowball.

I'm waiting, or wanting more information/ evidence about which consumer segments are down the most, for Disney and Orlando in general.

If they are having problems with the Holiday season it's probably because they underestimated the draw of the Osbourne lights, Oopsie a blind mouse could have seen that one coming, Without the lights there is no reason to suffer the crowded parks to see the minimal decor that Disney has put up the last 2-3 years For crying out loud they cut the wreath and colored lights on the contemporary last year.

 

[21stamps]

Not to mention a far higher quality experience and places like the Poly were places to be 'seen' by celebrities of the day, Not the 'would not catch me dead there' that exists today.

Back then only resort guests could enter the resort. People tend to conveniently forget that prices have raised, but there are a lot more options as well. Back then it was not a "complete vacation" for most.

The resorts weren't reasonably priced, neither were the tickets. They "appear" reasonable now. Especially when you factor in that "value" resorts didn't even exist- and that Disney does offer vacations at several different price points. They also only ask for a $200 deposit and you have a year before final payment is due if you need to save for it. Also, the vacation savings account which someone could choose to assist in their savings and get money back for it.

Is WDW more expensive than those years when you apply inflation? Yes. It is.
But so is pretty much everything else.
It's also in higher demand now.

 

[asianway]

Back then only resort guests could enter the resort. People tend to conveniently forget that prices have raised, but there are a lot more options as well. Back then it was not a "complete vacation" for most.

The resorts weren't reasonably priced, neither were the tickets. They "appear" reasonable now. Especially when you factor in that "value" resorts didn't even exist- and that Disney does offer vacations at several different price points. They also only ask for a $200 deposit and you have a year before final payment is due if you need to save for it. Also, the vacation savings account which someone could choose to assist in their savings and get money back for it.

Is WDW more expensive than those years when you apply inflation? Yes. It is.
But so is pretty much everything else.
It's also in higher demand now.

What are you talking about? Hotel Guard booths are new - 1990s, you used to be able to drive right in, and day guests were encouraged to eat at the hotels.Yes, you would have to pay to park but it wasnt restricted

 

[21stamps]

What are you talking about? Hotel Guard booths are new - 1990s, you used to be able to drive right in, and day guests were encouraged to eat at the hotels.Yes, you would have to pay to park but it wasnt restricted

I always thought that in the 1970s it was different. He said 70s/early 80s. My first time to disney was in 1978, and I was 1, so can't tell you any first hand details from memory.

 

[asianway]

I always thought that in the 1970s it was different. He said 70s/early 80s. My first time to disney was in 1978, and I was 1, so can't tell you any first hand details from memory.

Before they started opening more hotels in 88, there were two additional guard booths, one by the roundhouse, the other by Ft Wilderness. The effectively ensured you had to either be a resort guest or pay for parking to access the MK area. You can still see the spots they stood if you know where to look.