Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[betty rose]

Since the opening of Disney-MGM Studios in 1989 and Universal Studios in 1990, Universal has kept reasonably well-paced with WDW.

What Universal has failed to do is overcome Disney's initial advantage gained from its pre-Eisner theme parks, the Magic Kingdom and Epcot.

Until Universal creates a theme park to rival the Magic Kingdom (something nearly impossible to do), it will always play second fiddle to WDW.

What Universal potentially can do with a 3rd Gate is steal the "short vacation" market away from Disney. But Universal also needs the hotels, airport transportation, and pricing to beat Disney in the 3-to-5 day vacation market, a market that has been growing in the United States where vacations have been trending shorter.

To succeed, Universal needs to capture all of the vacation dollars from the time someone lands at MCO to the time they depart.

No airport transportation, is what has caused us to go to Disney. We like being picked up at the airport and taken to our resort. If Universal were to do that, we would be there in a minute.

 

[gmajew]

To succeed, Universal needs to capture all of the vacation dollars from the time someone lands at MCO to the time they depart.

I don't know if this is even their goal. I think Universal is happy with stealing days from Disney.... I also think a trip to WDW is and always has been more then just the parks at any age. My kids are 12 and 8 and they still pick the MK over any other park at this time and we have been to Universal and IO each of the last two years... but again WDW is water parks a day by the pool even a round of golf if you do it right. I know a lot of families that go every year that are just going to the park a few hours each day or even skipping a day or two to do other things. They only stay at WDW for the ease of going to the parks at a min notice if they choose they want to go.

I think for WDW to step it up again they need to up there level of service at the hotels and make them something special again. That is going to get people to stay on property a little longer and spend money at hotels and parks. I also feel they need to improve the selections at the hotel QSR locations. The food we had this past trip was just ok from these locations. This needs to be good.

I think they have been spending money trying to improve the pools etc at the hotels in the past few years. I think this helps people stay at hotel for those days they just want to relax....

I know I got off point on your original comment but I think it is all reasons why WDW is what it is and why Universal is trying but they never can build what WDW has due to the land restraints they have even with there recent purchases. They can only hope to peel a 2-3 days from most trips to Orlando... Even if they get the hotels they need you will at most see people split time at all parks.

 

[ford91exploder]

I would suggest both LEAN and Value Engineering fall under the term Business Process Optimization.

On water reuse, the collection, quality and redistribution can be cost prohibitive. An admirable goal and worth of study, but can often does not have enough ROI to get past the controller.

Both are indeed examples of BPO, LEAN has benefits when correctly applied, Value engineering well ... that gave us the american cars of the 1970's and early eighties

 

[ford91exploder]

Are local amusement parks with thrill rides not common? Yeah, Universal has more thrilling rides than WDW, but I can't imagine going to Uni in search of thrills. I didn't realize that "kids have matured beyond WDW, now they want Uni" until I started looking at wdw and universal forums. Cedar Point, Magic Mountain, Busch Gardens WB and Tampa, even Kings Dominion all offer a whole lot more thrills than you'll find at Universal and they're a lot cheaper too.

The problem is over the past 10 years or so WDW has morphed from a family amusement park to 'Toddler World' , My nephews on last trip to Disney were complaining about 'Disney is for LITTLE KIDS' we wanna go to Uni instead (ages 8-14)

 

[ford91exploder]

Ok I'm off to KI...and my kid's first time on an inversion coaster ever!!! Wish me luck

Pro tip eat/drink AFTER the inversion coaster

 

[ParentsOf4]

I know I got off point on your original comment but I think it is all reasons why WDW is what it is and why Universal is trying but they never can build what WDW has due to the land restraints they have even with there recent purchases. They can only hope to peel a 2-3 days from most trips to Orlando... Even if they get the hotels they need you will at most see people split time at all parks.

There are lots of ways for Universal to position itself. I wonder if one would be as the "every other trip" alternative.

Family X goes to WDW and has a great time. Fast forward 2-3 years and they want another Orlando vacation.

"Disney hasn't built much since we last went but Universal is offering free airport transportation and has a great 4-day ticket at half the price of Disney. Maybe we should go to Universal this time for a shorter vacation and plan for Disney for our next big vacation after that."

I dunno.

Do Guests say, "I'm going to Orlando only once so I'm going to buy tickets where ever I want" or do they try to watch costs on one vacation so they can afford another similar vacation in a few years?

 

[Butter]

I feel like this thread is going downhill really fast. I do not agree with much of this.

First off I think Disney does want a slight drop in attendance. I mean like 0-3%. They know their parks are dang crowded in the summer. They want the slight drop with increased revenue.

This is absolutely correct. I work for a large grocery chain, and they are not primarily looking to bring in new customers. It costs them 10 times more to bring in 10 new customers to spend $1 each as it does to get an already loyal customer to spend an extra $10. If you can convince all of your current loyal customers to spend more, then you are going to win without even bringing one more new visitor through the gates.

That is the whole theory behind this MagicBand stuff... make it easier for you to spend. It's not money, it's Magic! It's the same principle Vegas operates by... if you can get the person to view their choices outside of the prism of "how much is this going to cost me?", you've won.

 

[donsullivan]

I will be curious to see what happens when the Silver AP summer black out ends...I will also be curious to see how Disney scrambles to correct the over-correction that the new AP tiers caused to crowd levels.

In that message I was specifically referring to the number of south american tour groups (which have been comparatively non-existent this summer) being very high over the July 4th weekend. The item you raised reinforces how complicated a topic attendance fluctuations really are. There isn't likely any one contributing factor, and it isn't necessarily a bad or unexpected thing. I was just struck by the comparatively low numbers I saw at Epcot on 7/4. As I noted above, based on the parking pattern Disney used at Epcot on 7/4 they were not expecting massive crowds. They didn't even load 2 of the lot segments.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I feel like this thread is going downhill really fast. I do not agree with much of this.

First off I think Disney does want a slight drop in attendance. I mean like 0-3%. They know their parks are dang crowded in the summer. They want the slight drop with increased revenue.

Then the Powers That Be should be throwing a party!!!! I am hearing that they have successfully cut attendance by over 30% just since April. And it's still dropping! Success!!!!!!!

 

[UpAllNight]

Then the Powers That Be should be throwing a party!!!! I am hearing that they have successfully cut attendance by over 30% just since April. And it's still dropping! Success!!!!!!!

In a dream scenario crowds stay lower when I visit next year and Disney come out fighting and actually invest rather than make more cuts.

 

[ChipNDale79]

Then the Powers That Be should be throwing a party!!!! I am hearing that they have successfully cut attendance by over 30% just since April. And it's still dropping! Success!!!!!!!

30%?

 

[Disneyhead'71]

30%?

That was the number that was told to me BEFORE the 4th of July weekend.

When I said TDO is panicking, I wasn't kidding.

 

[hopemax]

There are lots of ways for Universal to position itself.

One thing Universal has gotten us to do which WDW never did, is pay for a hotel when we have free lodging available. Even my parents, with my Mom's up to 60% of CM discount only stayed at Disney once, at the Polynesian for 2 nights, because it was easier and cheaper to just go home.

My Dad, husband and I are spending 2 nights at the Hard Rock when we come in October. Plus, we are also talking about staying at Cabana Bay or Sapphire Falls when Volcano Bay opens, and doing basically a "water park" vacation (since the no express pass thing won't be as important in that case, and my husband doesn't get an AP every year like my Dad and I have). And if we ever do Horror Nights, we'd book a hotel for that too.

 

[ChipNDale79]

That was the number that was told to me BEFORE the 4th of July weekend.

When I said TDO is panicking, I wasn't kidding.

That's a massive number. I love disney, but I honestly hope that number is true. After the price hikes and stagnation, they deserve every bit of it.

 

[hopemax]

Then the Powers That Be should be throwing a party!!!! I am hearing that they have successfully cut attendance by over 30% just since April. And it's still dropping! Success!!!!!!!

Really? I thought a 5% or 10% cut would have bad effects for Disney, but 30% seems unfathomable. Based on how unfriendly the whole resort has become (from a fiscal perspective, planning perspective, and just having enough competent and efficient staff) they deserve it. But too bad Spirit is on sabbatical, because I'd love to have some confirmation. What steps are they going to take to twist the numbers to make it seem not so bad.

 

[SorcererMC]

That was the number that was told to me BEFORE the 4th of July weekend.

When I said TDO is panicking, I wasn't kidding.

That is definitely....wow. WDW1974 threw out the 20% figure re: mass cancellations at GF and Poly, as an example....so I 'braced myself' for expecting worse numbers...After Pulse I would have expected a 3-5% drop, after the Gator attack I would bump that up to 10%, factor in the Brexit and fewer UKers (someone already said it's not their summer holiday yet), Brazil, Canada, etc...in all cases Disney would react to those decreases. Some tourism industry experts were saying 15%. 2x that? Wow.

They should be panicking, they are well behind the curve on this.

 

[SorcererMC]

What steps are they going to take to twist the numbers to make it seem not so bad.

I would be very curious to know how their data analytics would break it out....I think that they are well-positioned to temper expectations given recent events, ie 'understandable' that WDW attendance is down. Doesn't mean there won't be drastic measures taken though in the short-term to counter it and shore up the bottom line. As others have said, it is almost the end of their FY so they can 'manage it' to a limited extent.

 

[PhotoDave219]

That was the number that was told to me BEFORE the 4th of July weekend.

When I said TDO is panicking, I wasn't kidding.

I can speak to hearing similar things. I would expect the late-night DAK to end sooner than later. I've heard that the Safari doesn't warrant staying open until 11, let alone the entire park.

I think if things don't turn around soon, you might be seeing some cuts and not just reduced hours/staff front line cuts either.

Edit: Things are showing no signs of turning around either.

 

[SorcererMC]

I can speak to hearing similar things. I would expect the late-night DAK to end sooner than later. I've heard that the Safari doesn't warrant staying open until 11, let alone the entire park.

I think if things don't turn around soon, you might be seeing some cuts and not just reduced hours/staff front line cuts either.

I don't think it will turn around quickly - b/c September is the 'traditional' slow month for FL tourism. I'm wondering if this will extend to the holiday season or not. I think it does mean a whole lot of uncertainty for at least the next year, and dare I say that the 'gravy train' of the past several years has ended. My wallet would be happy for Disney to take it down a few notches, but I think that this is going to be bad/painful for a lot of people and/or families. I hope I'm wrong.

Does anyone know if this kind of drop in attendance is unprecedented? I'm trying to think of other comparable time/points of reference, eg 2002 or 2009 recessions? I don't need a thesis just some more context on either a quarterly or annual basis and I can do my own digging.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I can speak to hearing similar things. I would expect the late-night DAK to end sooner than later. I've heard that the Safari doesn't warrant staying open until 11, let alone the entire park.

I think if things don't turn around soon, you might be seeing some cuts and not just reduced hours/staff front line cuts either.

The scary part is that Disney didn't see this coming. They were still barreling forward with price increases and quality cuts even after the bottom fell out.

And it should be pointed out that the problem isn't Brazil, Briexit, Pulse, or Gators. They are simply compounding the problem.