Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[ctrlaltdel]

Man, just when they about to start investing some real money into the resort. Seems like DLR is down as well (that could be due to AP pricing though). It seems like we may be headed towards another recession, so this may not be pretty.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Man, just when they about to start investing some real money into the resort. Seems like DLR is down as well (that could be due to AP pricing though). It seems like we may be headed towards another recession, so this may not be pretty.

There is always a recession when there is no incumbent running for Pres. It is usually short lived though.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I don't think it will turn around quickly - b/c September is the 'traditional' slow month for FL tourism. I'm wondering if this will extend to the holiday season or not. I think it does mean a whole lot of uncertainty for at least the next year, and dare I say that the 'gravy train' of the past several years has ended. My wallet would be happy for Disney to take it down a few notches, but I think that this is going to be bad/painful for a lot of people and/or families. I hope I'm wrong.

Does anyone know if this kind of drop in attendance is unprecedented? I'm trying to think of other comparable time/points of reference, eg 2002 or 2009 recessions? I don't need a thesis just some more context on either a quarterly or annual basis and I can do my own digging.

Not within recent memory without the events of 9/11 or the Housing bubble crunch. I cant think of where it organically dropped like this.

The scary part is that Disney didn't see this coming. They were still barreling forward with price increases and quality cuts even after the bottom fell out.

And it should be pointed out that the problem isn't Brazil, Briexit, Pulse, or Gators. They are simply compounding the problem.

Its the result of the same things we've been saying for years: too much style, not enough substance. You can only alienate your core base of middle america so much before they decide that Disney is too expensive or not enough has changed for them to return. The guests won't always come.

The law of diminishing returns always comes faster than you think.

Disney will get thru this.... they're going to have to get their act together with their new offerings and in a hurry.

 

[SorcererMC]

And it should be pointed out that the problem isn't Brazil, Briexit, Pulse, or Gators. They are simply compounding the problem.

I don't think that Disney had any of these mostly unforeseeable events built into their models, I think that's part of the problem.

 

[Bob Harlem]

All of Orlando is seeing a drop this year, although Disney seems to be hit, by far, the hardest. Price increases compounded with stagnation are the primary causes, but there are also a lot of other negative factors too (like recent events, but they don't have as big an impact as you would think). Brazil, though, that's a different matter.

Disney should have taken advantage of ultra cheap construction costs after the last recession when it could have, now it's a bit too late.

One other factor, special events, which used to help drive people to the parks during slow seasons, are now almost having the opposite factor, the typical summer season is less a draw than the events (particularly Halloween) And Christmas is the worst of both worlds, both event and common vacation time. So I'd expect both of those to be crazy crowded as usual.

 

[hopemax]

I don't think it will turn around quickly - b/c September is the 'traditional' slow month for FL tourism. I'm wondering if this will extend to the holiday season or not. I think it does mean a whole lot of uncertainty for at least the next year, and dare I say that the 'gravy train' of the past several years has ended.

Our next Florida trip was planned to be able to visit WDW for the 45th Anniversary on October 1st, regardless of what WDW actually does. I'm a little worried that people are in a "we better go when there is the best opportunity for whatever remaining value," and that will happen to coincide with Food & Wine and the Halloween parties. Two things that people still think is worth doing at least once. So it will be dead all summer, and then chaos the month of October.

 

[SorcererMC]

For historical indicators - I'm looking at @ParentsOf4 's 'Disney Domestic P&R Change in Revenue' Chart, it's showing that the only years of negative P&R revenue change are 1991, 2002-03, and 2009-10. It's hard to tell but maybe down 5%, 7% (2002), and 5% (2009), respectively.

 

[Brad Bishop]

There is always a recession when there is no incumbent running for Pres. It is usually short lived though.

I'd state it as: There is usually a recession when there's a changing of the president. People get nervous with, "what's next???" and, usually, it works itself out 6mos-1yr down the road. Also, normally it's mild..

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Not within recent memory without the events of 9/11 or the Housing bubble crunch. I cant think of where it organically dropped like this.



Its the result of the same things we've been saying for years: too much style, not enough substance. You can only alienate your core base of middle america so much before they decide that Disney is too expensive or not enough has changed for them to return. The guests won't always come.

The law of diminishing returns always comes faster than you think.

Disney will get thru this.... they're going to have to get their act together with their new offerings and in a hurry.

Now is the time where the rubber meets the road. They won't backtrack on rack rates so my guess is the "Buy 3 nights get 2 free AND $150 Disney Gift Card Deal" starts in Sept. And there will probably be Free Dining Deals for those that the 5 night deal doesn't work for. But wait, there's more! Get 15 months instead of 12 on each new AP! And a $199 3 day FL Resident Deal too boot.

It's Raining DEALS! You get a DEAL! You get a DEAL! You get a DEAL! Everybody gets a DEAL!

"Meh. Where's the beef, Mickey!"

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I'd state it as: There is usually a recession when there's a changing of the president. People get nervous with, "what's next???" and, usually, it works itself out 6mos-1yr down the road. Also, normally it's mild..

You obviously haven't been Twitterfied. 140 CHARACTERS ONLY!

 

[PhotoDave219]

I'd state it as: There is usually a recession when there's a changing of the president. People get nervous with, "what's next???" and, usually, it works itself out 6mos-1yr down the road. Also, normally it's mild..

Yeah, long term this summer is just a hiccup. The sky isn't falling, but the guests aren't makin it rain anymore....

 

[rob0519]

Buy 3 nights get 2 free. I would jump on that offer. I think back around 2002 it was Buy 4 get 3 free. We took advantage of that offer as well.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Yeah, long term this summer is just a hiccup. The sky isn't falling, but the guests aren't makin it rain anymore....

Pre-Bookings for Fall aren't as bad as Summer has been. But as someone else mentioned, F&W and MNSSHP into MVMCP is now the most popular period of the year at WDW. January'17 and beyond looks HORRIBLE so far and that is where TDO is aiming their focus.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Pre-Bookings for Fall aren't as bad as Summer has been. But as someone else mentioned, F&W and MNSSHP into MVMCP is now the most popular period of the year at WDW. January'17 and beyond looks HORRIBLE so far and that is where TDO is aiming their focus.

Pretty obvious George K isn't gonna survive this..,.

 

[Nubs70]

Both are indeed examples of BPO, LEAN has benefits when correctly applied, Value engineering well ... that gave us the american cars of the 1970's and early eighties

Yes 1970's auto industry.

"Automobiles are an established industry with a large barrier to entry. We have no competition "

Sound familiar?

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Pretty obvious George K isn't gonna survive this..,.

No, probably not. Gotta have a fall guy.

 

[hopemax]

Yes 1970's auto industry.

"Automobiles are an established industry with a large barrier to entry. We have no competition "

Sound familiar?

If only we could import Tokyo Disneyland as easily as I can drive my Honda.

 

[PhotoDave219]

If only we could import Tokyo Disneyland as easily as I can drive my Honda.

More about the mindset of management. You need a P&R VP and a WDW Prez who understands audience building beyond making yourself look good from quarter to quarter based on one-time upcharge events and festivals. Need management that understands that its the long game they're after and that requires continued reinvestments over marketing. You need guests to feel like they got their money's worth.

Accelerate the DHS projects, get Avatar done on time, and those would be good steps in the right direction. Reinforce frontline guest service. All of these would be good first steps.

 

[ford91exploder]

Disney had the 'We are invincible mindset' and the 'Guests will ALWAYS come' if the 30% decline figure is accurate I'd expect the trend to accelerate, A LOT of people who I know at work and clients who've gone to WDW this year were NOT happy with the experience so you are seeing knock on effects from social media and the Pulse and Gator horrors don't help greater orlando tourism, Up here the seashore and lakes are having one of their best seasons in YEARS so I don't think this a overall tourism thing yes orlando is DOWN but it's only DISNEY who is seeing the huge hit in attendance. The Quality cuts are now going to hurt the bottom line.

 

[ford91exploder]

More about the mindset of management. You need a P&R VP and a WDW Prez who understands audience building beyond making yourself look good from quarter to quarter based on one-time upcharge events and festivals. Need management that understands that its the long game they're after and that requires continued reinvestments over marketing. You need guests to feel like they got their money's worth.

Accelerate the DHS projects, get Avatar done on time, and those would be good steps in the right direction. Reinforce frontline guest service. All of these would be good first steps.

Disney will not do the needful, We will see more cuts and quality reductions instead, I'd expect expansions to be slowed and stock buybacks kicked up a couple notches as well to keep earnings shiny so the analysts don't ask the hard questions.