Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

Will you take a Covid vaccine once one is approved and deemed safe and effective by the FDA?

  • Yes, stick me please

  • No, I will wait

  • No, I will never take one


Results are only viewable after voting.

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
It’s a real problem. The vaccine won’t protect everyone who gets it so Covid will still be a real threat if we don’t reach herd immunity. The easiest way to get there is with 80%+ vaccine participation. if the number is much lower it will take much longer. Removing mitigations will only make the situation worse. I can’t figure out what the people in these polls are thinking that say no, never. 42% of registered republicans say they will never get the vaccine...that’s truly sad. We should bring Ronald Reagan and Honest Abe back from their graves to slap some people around. Maybe thats the plan for a reimagined hall of Presidents ;););)
I heard Biden is going to be putting out Covid commercials during this weekend's Super Bowl. Hopefully between the drinks and food, the message will sink in.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
I heard Biden is going to be putting out Covid commercials during this weekend's Super Bowl. Hopefully between the drinks and food, the message will sink in.
It’s a good call. I think there’s a need for as much publicity as possible. People need to hear over and over that it’s safe, it’s effective and it’s our fastest way back to normal life. I fear that too many people are taking this attitude that if enough other people get the vaccine restrictions will go away anyway and they never need to bother. I want my summer back :cool:
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
What month I'll get a COVID-19 vaccine for young adults. I'm almost 31 years old man soon on April 7th for my birthday.
What do you do for work? There’s a bunch of public facing, essential type jobs that are in the next few parts of phase 1 and then the rest of the population. You could also take up smoking to move up in line ;)
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
What do you do for work? There’s a bunch of public facing, essential type jobs that are in the next few parts of phase 1 and then the rest of the population. You could also take up smoking to move up in line ;)
No for CVS, maybe I'll get a vaccine at CVS in late April or May/June?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
No for CVS, maybe I'll get a vaccine at CVS in late April or May/June?
That seems reasonable. There’s a good chance that we get through most of the 65+ and high risk crowd by the end of March or early April and then it should open to other workers. April is certain all possible, if not definitely May. I saw a while back the Governor of FL had said once JnJ was approved he wanted to allocate those doses to essential and retail workers since it is one shot and less disruptive for people who work plus also easier to distribute through large workforce drives. If the 65+ and high risk crowd is mostly done I could see that being the standard practice nationwide.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
Just for some quick math. There are roughly 150M Americans in the healthcare, nursing home, 65+ and high risk categories eligible right now. Assuming only 80% want the vaccine that means 120M vaccinations. We are expected to get enough doses from Pfizer and Moderna alone for 110M people by the end of March. If JnJ kicks in another 30 to 40M doses by the end of March that puts us above the amount needed to be through those groups. So if you are in those categories you should have at least 1 shot by end of March. Some states have started vaccinating other groups as well with some other essential workers qualifying but the point is we should be on to people 16 to 65 without high risk health conditions by April 1 or maybe a little sooner. Assuming the same 80% acceptance rate we would need enough doses for about 100M more people. It’s possible by some time in April to have Novavax and/or AstraZeneca approved which would also speed things up further.
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
It’s a real problem. The vaccine won’t protect everyone who gets it so Covid will still be a real threat if we don’t reach herd immunity. The easiest way to get there is with 80%+ vaccine participation. if the number is much lower it will take much longer. Removing mitigations will only make the situation worse. I can’t figure out what the people in these polls are thinking that say no, never. 42% of registered republicans say they will never get the vaccine...that’s truly sad. We should bring Ronald Reagan and Honest Abe back from their graves to slap some people around. Maybe thats the plan for a reimagined hall of Presidents ;););)

I also wonder if the vaccine starts to drive down the numbers, will people be less inclined to get vaccinated, and then we would run the risk of a resurgence of the virus next winter.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
I also wonder if the vaccine starts to drive down the numbers, will people be less inclined to get vaccinated, and then we would run the risk of a resurgence of the virus next winter.
I have heard some people say that. In a recent poll I saw that less than 50% of parents polled said they would get their child under 12 vaccinated and one of the main reasons given was that they won’t need it since everyone else will be immune and the virus will be knocked down. It’s short sighted to think that way. Kids need a return to normal school and that won’t be possible if there are sudden outbreaks due to half the kids not being vaccinated. My youngest is 11 but I’d consider sneaking him in to get vaccinated in August if he’s not approved. He would be less than 6 months away from his 12th birthday.
 

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member
Best case for March for J&J is probably more like 25M and that’s optimistic. There was an article last week that they would have about 7M ready at approval, which should be roughly Feb 25ish. That’s not a sign they’re scaling up production quickly.
 

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member
Just for some quick math. There are roughly 150M Americans in the healthcare, nursing home, 65+ and high risk categories eligible right now. Assuming only 80% want the vaccine that means 120M vaccinations. We are expected to get enough doses from Pfizer and Moderna alone for 110M people by the end of March. If JnJ kicks in another 30 to 40M doses by the end of March that puts us above the amount needed to be through those groups. So if you are in those categories you should have at least 1 shot by end of March. Some states have started vaccinating other groups as well with some other essential workers qualifying but the point is we should be on to people 16 to 65 without high risk health conditions by April 1 or maybe a little sooner. Assuming the same 80% acceptance rate we would need enough doses for about 100M more people. It’s possible by some time in April to have Novavax and/or AstraZeneca approved which would also speed things up further.
Leaving this here, as is was super helpful to building my understanding of the timeline:
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
Best case for March for J&J is probably more like 25M and that’s optimistic. There was an article last week that they would have about 7M ready at approval, which should be roughly Feb 25ish. That’s not a sign they’re scaling up production quickly.
  • “I do know that J&J is making a very large supply, going all out with its production, both here in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world, with the goal of having perhaps enough vaccines for 100 million Americans by spring, by this April or so,” said J&J board member Dr. Mark McClellan.
On their earnings call the JnJ CEO confirmed that they will meet their target of 100M doses by the end of June but one of their board members said in this interview even sooner, maybe as early as end of April. If they are going to meet the target they will need to ramp up quickly which this guy claims they have done. If they only deliver 25M by end of March it’s highly unlikely they hit 100M in April. Its always hard to tell who is telling the truth in these situations but my guess is the CEO is sandbagging the timeline in case of delays. Better to underpromise and over deliver than the opposite. The board member probably wasn’t supposed to give that quote but I’m guessing that’s the internal goal.

 

drizgirl

Well-Known Member
They need to be very careful how they message about the vaccine and quality of life going forward. I understand the need to reiterate that people need to continue with masks post vaccine, but people need to believe that getting the vaccine is an important part of making all of that go away. The more they hear that getting the vaccine won't change anything, the less likely people will be to get vaccinated. I don't think they're doing a good job of this right now.
 

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member
They need to be very careful how they message about the vaccine and quality of life going forward. I understand the need to reiterate that people need to continue with masks post vaccine, but people need to believe that getting the vaccine is an important part of making all of that go away. The more they hear that getting the vaccine won't change anything, the less likely people will be to get vaccinated. I don't think they're doing a good job of this right now.
Yes, completely agree
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
They need to be very careful how they message about the vaccine and quality of life going forward. I understand the need to reiterate that people need to continue with masks post vaccine, but people need to believe that getting the vaccine is an important part of making all of that go away. The more they hear that getting the vaccine won't change anything, the less likely people will be to get vaccinated. I don't think they're doing a good job of this right now.
Yes, completely agree
Really? I haven’t seen anyone saying publicly that the vaccine won’t change anything. All of the public health officials, government officials and most of the media have been talking up the vaccines as the only way out of this pandemic.
 

drizgirl

Well-Known Member
Really? I haven’t seen anyone saying publicly that the vaccine won’t change anything. All of the public health officials, government officials and most of the media have been talking up the vaccines as the only way out of this pandemic.
Really. I've seen comments about masks being more important than vaccines. About how masks are here to stay. That sort of thing. I'm counting the days until I can get one. But I can see those on the fence saying "if vaccines aren't the way out, then why should I get one?" It's been very bad messaging.
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Really? I haven’t seen anyone saying publicly that the vaccine won’t change anything. All of the public health officials, government officials and most of the media have been talking up the vaccines as the only way out of this pandemic.

It's a mixed message. If you Google "still need to wear a mask" you will find articles like this. Those of us who follow this closely understand the messages, but for people who just read headlines it's definitly a mixed message.


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