Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[ToTBellHop]

Real-world, tangible results. Here in CT, we finished vaccinating nursing home residents and staff 2 weeks ago. Deaths have already fallen almost 70%. Cases have fallen 78%.

Vaccination leading to dramatic drop in COVID-19 cases, deaths in Connecticut nursing homes

With nearly all residents of nursing homes in Connecticut fully vaccinated, deaths due to COVID-19 in these facilities have dropped nearly 70% over the past four weeks. The decline in COVID-19 case…

www.courant.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Real-world, tangible results. Here in CT, we finished vaccinating nursing home residents and staff 2 weeks ago. Deaths have already fallen almost 70%. Cases have fallen 78%.

Vaccination leading to dramatic drop in COVID-19 cases, deaths in Connecticut nursing homes

With nearly all residents of nursing homes in Connecticut fully vaccinated, deaths due to COVID-19 in these facilities have dropped nearly 70% over the past four weeks. The decline in COVID-19 case…

www.courant.com

I wonder how many in the positive and dead category were the vaccine rejectors. I would feel pretty foolish if I declined the vaccine and then got sick or died...I guess if I died I wouldn’t feel much of anything...get the vaccine when you are eligible

 

[GoofGoof]

@MansionButler84 Do you have any idea what numbers of cases, etc that WDW is looking for in order to, let’s say, relax social distancing and bring back nighttime shows, etc? Just a wild guess they probably do not care who gets vaccinated or which does people are on, as long as cases continue to drop?

Right now we are only at 2.3% of the population having both doses so I don’t think the vaccine is impacting overall cases yet. I do think it will start to have an impact soon, especially when they get to the essential worker groups which are people more likely to have extended contact with strangers. This initial phase which includes the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions will drive down hospitalizations and deaths first before cases make a big move as the higher risk people become immune.

I don’t think we need to reach herd immunity levels to see the impact and to start relaxing some restrictions, but a combination of more immune people and mitigations in place will drive down case numbers faster. If we relax mitigation efforts too fast it will slow the drop in cases. It’s likely going to be a gradual process. As far as timing, Israel is the place to watch. Almost 22% of their population has had both doses. How case numbers respond at various levels of vaccination there should be a good window into how long it will take here.

 

[drizgirl]

You really think this virus is the end of our species?

C’mon.

I don't know a single person who thinks it's the end of the species. I do know a few who worry about elderly or high risk loved ones.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I don't know a single person who thinks it's the end of the species. I do know a few who worry about elderly or high risk loved ones.

People claim we will be in masks “forever” to support their decision to be reckless.

 

[GoofGoof]

Demand right now far exceeds supply for the vaccines. That won’t last forever. In a matter of several months it’s very likely that we hit the point where there are more doses than people who want the vaccine and then the real fun starts of trying to get the last quarter of the population to get the vaccine. I know it seems crazy to picture a time when the vaccine will be available multiple places to anyone who wants it (no wait, no struggling to book appointments) but we are not far from that time.

 

[MotherofaPrincessLover]

I had the same side effects with the addition of joint pain. I understand we get to look forward to a greater reaction with the second shot.

I spent the day after my second dose in bed (yesterday). Today I feel perfectly fine, though. I will take the day of misery if it will help end this pandemic!

 

[ToTBellHop]

Right now we are only at 2.3% of the population having both doses so I don’t think the vaccine is impacting overall cases yet. I do think it will start to have an impact soon, especially when they get to the essential worker groups which are people more likely to have extended contact with strangers. This initial phase which includes the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions will drive down hospitalizations and deaths first before cases make a big move as the higher risk people become immune.

I don’t think we need to reach herd immunity levels to see the impact and to start relaxing some restrictions, but a combination of more immune people and mitigations in place will drive down case numbers faster. If we relax mitigation efforts too fast it will slow the drop in cases. It’s likely going to be a gradual process. As far as timing, Israel is the place to watch. Almost 22% of their population has had both doses. How case numbers respond at various levels of vaccination there should be a good window into how long it will take here.

Nationwide, it will take longer. Locally, we will see more case studies pop up in areas that are more successful in vaccination.

 

[CastAStone]

Demand right now far exceeds supply for the vaccines. That won’t last forever. In a matter of several months it’s very likely that we hit the point where there are more doses than people who want the vaccine and then the real fun starts of trying to get the last quarter of the population to get the vaccine. I know it seems crazy to picture a time when the vaccine will be available multiple places to anyone who wants it (no wait, no struggling to book appointments) but we are not far from that time.

Yeah my math on doses expected per week would indicate that by early May we may be running out of willing people to give first doses to if J&J gets approved and they can hit their commitments.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Yeah my math on doses expected per week would indicate that by early May we may be running out of willing people to give first doses to if J&J gets approved and they can hit their commitments.

Honest question: how long can we maintain public health measures once we get to the point where no one is going out to get the vaccine?

 

[CastAStone]

Honest question: how long can we maintain public health measures once we get to the point where no one is going out to get the vaccine?

I feel like if you don’t want to protect yourself, and the resources are there to do so, for free, the government is no longer under any obligation to protect you. It will probably take a couple months to unwind mask mandates etc but like this survey is from this week! It means 60 million American adults probably won’t get vaccinated. It’s certainly the group that’s most likely to have already contracted Covid, but still.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I feel like if you don’t want to protect yourself, and the resources are there to do so, for free, the government is no longer under any obligation to protect you. It will probably take a couple months to unwind mask mandates etc but like this survey is from this week! It means 60 million American adults probably won’t get vaccinated. It’s certainly the group that’s most likely to have already contracted Covid, but still.
View attachment 529659

I would agree with your assessment with the caveat that kids are a confounded here. They need to get a vaccine available to kids. This snail’s pace is rather confusing. We need to get shots in arms as quickly as possible, and ideally we will have the younger population eligible starting in June once the willing adults are taken care of.

 

[sullyinMT]

Demand right now far exceeds supply for the vaccines. That won’t last forever. In a matter of several months it’s very likely that we hit the point where there are more doses than people who want the vaccine and then the real fun starts of trying to get the last quarter of the population to get the vaccine. I know it seems crazy to picture a time when the vaccine will be available multiple places to anyone who wants it (no wait, no struggling to book appointments) but we are not far from that time.

If next week proves successful (direct pharmacy distribution), we may see that timeline move up, because the vaccine hunters will be out in a little fuller force, and I can't see retail pharmacies wasting doses at the rates hospitals have been (keeping doses for their own employees and allowing expiration).
I hope the pharmacy distribution model works out, and we really start seeing a ramp up of patient distribution.

 

[CastAStone]

If next week proves successful (direct pharmacy distribution), we may see that timeline move up, because the vaccine hunters will be out in a little fuller force, and I can't see retail pharmacies wasting doses at the rates hospitals have been (keeping doses for their own employees and allowing expiration).
I hope the pharmacy distribution model works out, and we really start seeing a ramp up of patient distribution.

It’s just a matter of time. Pfizer will roughly double its supply over the next month or so. Moderna will increase theirs to some extent as well; both companies owe 100M doses (each) by March 31 and are still insisting that will not be a problem.

 

[sullyinMT]

It’s just a matter of time. Pfizer will roughly double its supply over the next month or so. Moderna will increase theirs to some extent as well; both companies owe 100M doses (each) by March 31 and are still insisting that will not be a problem.

Yes, the doses will get out of the production lines. Increased vaccinators will help greatly to get them into arms. That’s why I’m holding out hope that the initial pharmacies next week have success, and that avenue opens up more fully by the end of Feb to early March.

 

[CastAStone]

I would agree with your assessment with the caveat that kids are a confounded here. They need to get a vaccine available to kids. This snail’s pace is rather confusing. We need to get shots in arms as quickly as possible, and ideally we will have the younger population eligible starting in June once the willing adults are taken care of.

I’m not sure what will happen there. i do know what the problem is: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...adolescent-volunteers-coronavirus/6646795002/

 

[ToTBellHop]

I’m not sure what will happen there. i do know what the problem is: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...adolescent-volunteers-coronavirus/6646795002/

The Pfizer study is now full. What I don’t understand is why they aren’t starting the ages 5-11 study now. It seems it will take 6 months from start to finish.

 

[CastAStone]

The Pfizer study is now full. What I don’t understand is why they aren’t starting the ages 5-11 study now. It seems it will take 6 months from start to finish.

Last I saw on young children was that it really is only as deadly as the seasonal flu in that age bracket, and perhaps less so if you assume most children’s cases are so mild as to fail to be recognized. I get that we want a vaccine for them, my sons will turn 5 this year, but we will be hitting rapidly diminishing returns on the effects of shutting things down.

More decisions I’m glad I don’t have to make.

 

[GoofGoof]

The Pfizer study is now full. What I don’t understand is why they aren’t starting the ages 5-11 study now. It seems it will take 6 months from start to finish.

Its standard practice to not start kids under 12 until a new vaccine is fully proven safe in adults and older kids. These are obviously not times for standard practice. From what I read in kids under 12 the standard practice is to run multiple trials with different dosages to determine the lowest dose possible that is still effective. If the 12-15 trial shows very few adverse reactions it’s possible that they skip that time consuming step and just go straight to a regular trial. Efficacy studies in children don’t necessarily need to be done either. When vaccines exist for adults and older children, companies can do studies demonstrating safety in children called “bridging” studies that just have to demonstrate that the immune response in children is similar to adults but don’t require a plecebo group and a full phase 3 trial.

I believe Pfizer has said they don’t plan to do a bridging study and still think they will be on track to have their vaccine approved for all school age kids before the start of the next school year. They said in December they plan to start the 5-11 phase 3 trial by the end of Q1 2021. Hopefully that’s still the plan as cases are still raging but hopefully won’t be for too much longer.

 

[GoofGoof]

Honest question: how long can we maintain public health measures once we get to the point where no one is going out to get the vaccine?

It’s a real problem. The vaccine won’t protect everyone who gets it so Covid will still be a real threat if we don’t reach herd immunity. The easiest way to get there is with 80%+ vaccine participation. if the number is much lower it will take much longer. Removing mitigations will only make the situation worse. I can’t figure out what the people in these polls are thinking that say no, never. 42% of registered republicans say they will never get the vaccine...that’s truly sad. We should bring Ronald Reagan and Honest Abe back from their graves to slap some people around. Maybe thats the plan for a reimagined hall of Presidents