danlb_2000
Premium Member
Exactly, the quotes in the press release don't add up. It will be interesting to see the actual trial data.
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Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines
- Thread starter GoofGoof
- Start date
Exactly, the quotes in the press release don't add up. It will be interesting to see the actual trial data.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Another 1.7 million vaccine doses. By tomorrow or Monday, 10% of US adults will have received at least the 1st shot.
SyracuseDisneyFan
Well-Known Member
Here in NY, my Dad has an appointment for a vaccine (1st dose, I believe) in late March. My Mom's been trying to sign up for a vaccine appointment, but hasn't had any luck so far.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
As expected, 10% of American adults have received at least 1 dose of vaccine. That should reach 10% of all Americans by Friday.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
We should probably start focusing on a week-by-week due to daily fluctuations. Daily average rate is more useful.
1/24/21: 21,848,655 total, 18,502,131 first doses
1/31/21: 31,123,299 total, 25,201,143 first doses
9,274,644 doses in a week, 1.325 million doses per day
6,699,012 new first doses, (72% of doses administered), 0.957 million per day
We are just about on the pace required to initiate vaccination of 100 million people within 100 days (presume adequate capacity for 2nd doses, which we have been promised) and 100 million people with both doses 4 weeks later. We can probably exceed that.
1/24/21: 21,848,655 total, 18,502,131 first doses
1/31/21: 31,123,299 total, 25,201,143 first doses
9,274,644 doses in a week, 1.325 million doses per day
6,699,012 new first doses, (72% of doses administered), 0.957 million per day
We are just about on the pace required to initiate vaccination of 100 million people within 100 days (presume adequate capacity for 2nd doses, which we have been promised) and 100 million people with both doses 4 weeks later. We can probably exceed that.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
At the current pace, we could get the first dose into every American in 316 days. 12/13/21. Dose 2 by 1/10/22. We will obviously be done before then. Just...perspective.
We won’t get anywhere near 100% uptake. Say we aim for 75% of the entire population. We’d get there on 9/18/21 with dose 2 around 10/16/21.
Can they delay the 50th by a couple weeks?
We won’t get anywhere near 100% uptake. Say we aim for 75% of the entire population. We’d get there on 9/18/21 with dose 2 around 10/16/21.
Can they delay the 50th by a couple weeks?
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correcaminos
Well-Known Member
This assumes all shots are 2 doses and we keep at a lower rate of inoculation that is limited not by how fast we can do it, but by supply only. I hate to break it though if all who want to be vaccinated are done by July even (which I last saw was the target, not way late like you are), Oct will likely not look that much different at WDW than if it was Sept for the date.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
I imagine you are correct. I was trying to give a latest end-date.
Interesting story in the New York Times today about how we are focusing on the wrong numbers on vaccines. In brief, because it’s behind a paywall, all five vaccines that have trialed have fully prevented death and greatly limited hospitalization, even against the variants. Focusing on full prevention of disease is a fool’s errand for a coronavirus but makes sense for something like Ebola, which is always severe. If we can get deaths and hospitalization to the level of flu or lower, we can move on. Each vaccine seems to be able to do this.
The advice in this article is: if offered any vaccine now, get it. They all are excellent at preventing hospitalization and death, which is the point.
Shouldigo12
Well-Known Member
I saw that article too, although weirdly there was no paywall for me, Maybe because I got it through an email?
I can say that personally this article and other ones greatly increased my confidence in the other vaccine options, and I've moved from not being sure if I would take them to definitely being willing to get them.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
I haven't seen the article, but since it is usually behind a paywall I ignore them mostly from NYT anyway (paywall only, nothing else) but this is a valid point people need to think about over and over. If my spouse could get the J&J vaccine right now, we'd do it! I'm vaccinated due to the trial but we are not choosers. Now I get those with super high risks thinking one might work better than another for them (immune suppressed don't always react the same), but for most these are great!
I am hoping for a better fall and winter at least, but don't want to count on too much right now.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
I get the Times for free through the college I work for, but I’m discovering it actually is much less biased than most other sources for news in America. CNN has basically become a blog filled with clickbait. It’s awful. Perhaps NYT doesn’t have to stoop to that because it’s not free.
Anyway, there are reasons for optimism.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
They are okay in general. I find some of their headlines to be too much to stomach though. I find a lot of MSM that way - and no I'm not a crazy person who gets news from some small cult type either.
But yes, reasons for hope.
NYT articles for Coronavirus are not-paywalled as a public service. You may have to register, tho, to see them.
There are savvy people called vaccine hunters. Without an appt some stake out vaccine centers and find out the hours of operation. Towards the end of the day the hunters look and ask to see if there are any leftover doses and if there are the vaccine hunters get what they are looking for - getting the shot. They get what they wanted and the leftover vaccine doesn't end up in the trash.
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Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Yeah, if people are putting in the effort, and the end results are more people vaccinated and less wasted doses, I don't see the problem.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
As long as it doesn’t get out of hand. If too many show up and can’t stay physically-distanced, they’ll need a waiting list or something.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
It’ll never come to America, but good news that the Russian Sputnik V vaccine is over 91% effective (peer-reviewed article in Lancet). Great news to have another effective vaccine for the world.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
A further 5% increase in vaccine distribution (over the 16% increase already announced). Further, they will begin shipping directly to pharmacies.
MrHappy
Well-Known Member
@GoofGoof, Pfizer will deliver its 200mil by May. What does that do to alter your projections? Safe to say vaccinated Americans by the end of April: 50mil by Moderna, 100mill by Pfizer, ~75mil by JnJ = 225mil. WDYT?
www.google.com
Pfizer plans to deliver 200 million doses of Covid vaccine to U.S. by May, sooner than expected
The company, which developed its vaccine with German drugmaker BioNTech, also said it can potentially deliver 2 billion doses globally by the end of this year.
JnJ is also likely to be done with their 100M by the end of May and assuming Moderna is evenly split by month they should be at 166M end of May and Pfizer at full 200M so it looks like we should have enough doses for 283M people by the end of May. There are only 280M Americans 12 and over so in theory enough doses for every person who is eligible in America. Assuming some people don’t want the vaccine we should have a surplus by then. Assuming younger kids are approved later in the year we will probably hold back 100M doses for them from the additional 100M doses each coming from Pfizer and Moderna in Q3.@GoofGoof, Pfizer will deliver its 200mil by May. What does that do to alter your projections? Safe to say vaccinated Americans by the end of April: 50mil by Moderna, 100mill by Pfizer, ~75mil by JnJ = 225mil. WDYT?
Pfizer plans to deliver 200 million doses of Covid vaccine to U.S. by May, sooner than expected
The company, which developed its vaccine with German drugmaker BioNTech, also said it can potentially deliver 2 billion doses globally by the end of this year.