Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[ToTBellHop]

What technology does Novavax use?

They inject portions of spike proteins right into your body—protein subunit vaccine. The meningococcal vaccine works in this way. It is a good option for those who theorize (wrongly) the mRNA vaccines or viral vector DNA vaccines can somehow change your DNA. Novavax’s option doesn’t even deal in genetic material. It is still a 2-dose vaccine.

 

[Lilofan]

I can understand the trepidation of some not to believe everything they hear from officials in regards to the safety of the vaccine. During the clean up of the ground zero at WTC right after Sept 11, officials said the air was safe to breathe for workers. It was apparently not. At least 1K workers at the clean up site have died since from 9/11 ground zero clean up illnesses. I visited the site as a curious tourist in Nov 2001 and I vividly remember smelling the chocking smell of smoldering steel.

 

[danlb_2000]

J&J phase 3 trial data.

"Johnson & Johnson's phase 3 trial results found that the vaccine was 85 percent effective overall at preventing severe disease, which included illnesses requiring hospitalization."

It's interesting that they talk about effectivity against severe disease, while the others talk about effectivity against be symptomatic. Not sure how I feel about this. Using the same measure, Pfizer and Moderna are pretty much 100% effective in prevent server disease. 15% isn't a lot, but if I had my choice I would take the Pfizer of Moderna over this one.

J&J says vaccine effective against Covid, though weaker against South Africa variant

The vaccine could be authorized by the FDA by the end of February.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[ToTBellHop]

J&J phase 3 trial data.

"Johnson & Johnson's phase 3 trial results found that the vaccine was 85 percent effective overall at preventing severe disease, which included illnesses requiring hospitalization."

It's interesting that they talk about effectivity against severe disease, while the others talk about effectivity against be symptomatic. Not sure how I feel about this. Using the same measure, Pfizer and Moderna are pretty much 100% effective in prevent server disease. 15% isn't a lot, but if I had my choice I would take the Pfizer of Moderna over this one.

J&J says vaccine effective against Covid, though weaker against South Africa variant

The vaccine could be authorized by the FDA by the end of February.

www.nbcnews.com

Oh, absolutely. And wealthy nations will continue to use the vaccines they can afford, which are better. However, some confounders here: 1, these trials were completed as the new variants were spreading, which likely lowered efficacy outside N. America (the highest efficacy, 72%, was observed in the US trial). 2, this uses an adenovirus vector. If you’ve been exposed to that adenovirus (even though they’ve changed the inside of the virus), your antibodies can limit effectiveness. They purposely chose a relatively rare strain in N. America (perhaps 10-20% of Americans have antibodies against it), but one that is rather common in Africa and Asia—it was 57% efficacious in S. Africa.

Also, the older you are, the more likely you are to have those adenovirus antibodies. I suspect we may see better results in kids, where a 1 dose shot would be ideal. It also will be helpful in areas where we can’t easily maintain cold temperatures and for populations less likely to get two shots. In particular, the otherwise healthy, young fence sitters might come out for one shot, but not two. For them, 72% efficacy is fine.

So, the results are good, although we have been biased by the incredible effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna shots. This will certainly gain an EUA. Pfizer and Moderna did report on ability to prevent severe illness and death, both near 100%. So this is less than that. They are currently testing a 2-dose regimen, which could certainly raise efficacy toward the Moderna and Pfizer numbers for countries with Scrooge McDuckian vaccine stockpiles.

I notice they don’t share an efficacy against symptomatic illness, so I presume that’s lower and that this will be less effective at preventing spread—it will largely just be beneficial to the recipient.

There were no allergic reactions, which is also important. Those with a history of allergic reactions to vaccine are avoiding the existing vaccines.

In the end, given shortages of vaccine, this will be an important tool for certain populations, and 1 billion doses this year will vaccinate 1 billion people, limiting hospitalization and preventing death (according to their data).

 

[macefamily]

I never had a flu shot in my life, nor will I take this vaccine. Given the hurried nature of its development and the fact that there will be millions of people around me that have the vaccine, I don't see the point. My wife and daughter are in the health field and are disappointed with my decision, but I feel that herd immunity and the natural course of the virus will wane over time. The bigger concern is how this virus started. If there are labs in China or Russia or Iran that are growing these strains of disease, that is more important to focus on because this is just the first of several. Open up the borders, and let 'em roll in.......fools.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I never had a flu shot in my life, nor will I take this vaccine. Given the hurried nature of its development and the fact that there will be millions of people around me that have the vaccine, I don't see the point. My wife and daughter are in the health field and are disappointed with my decision, but I feel that herd immunity and the natural course of the virus will wane over time. The bigger concern is how this virus started. If there are labs in China or Russia or Iran that are growing these strains of disease, that is more important to focus on because this is just the first of several. Open up the borders, and let 'em roll in.......fools.

Whatever your news source, change it.

You're starting to buy into conspiracies. Ask yourself why you trust sketchy social media posts rather than the consensus of medical doctors.

If you think the doctors are in on the conspiracy, what will you do if you need medical treatment? Why would you trust any of them to mend a broken bone, give you hypertension medicine, or implant a stent to keep you from getting a heart attack? If you trust doctors to keep you alive, then listen to them, and only them, about vaccinations.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I never had a flu shot in my life, nor will I take this vaccine. Given the hurried nature of its development and the fact that there will be millions of people around me that have the vaccine, I don't see the point. My wife and daughter are in the health field and are disappointed with my decision, but I feel that herd immunity and the natural course of the virus will wane over time. The bigger concern is how this virus started. If there are labs in China or Russia or Iran that are growing these strains of disease, that is more important to focus on because this is just the first of several. Open up the borders, and let 'em roll in.......fools.

This is the most ignorant, stupid thing I’ve read all week. I feel for your wife and daughter having to put up with you.

Briefly, you don’t understand herd immunity, are being incredibly selfish, and I hope you don’t kill yourself or someone else.

 

[MisterPenguin]

This is the most ignorant, stupid thing I’ve read all week. I feel for your wife and daughter having to put up with you.

And I thought I was playing bad cop!

 

[ToTBellHop]

And I thought I was playing bad cop!

Have you read what bad cops do in America? You were playing patient cop.

 

[GoofGoof]

I never had a flu shot in my life, nor will I take this vaccine. Given the hurried nature of its development and the fact that there will be millions of people around me that have the vaccine, I don't see the point. My wife and daughter are in the health field and are disappointed with my decision, but I feel that herd immunity and the natural course of the virus will wane over time. The bigger concern is how this virus started. If there are labs in China or Russia or Iran that are growing these strains of disease, that is more important to focus on because this is just the first of several. Open up the borders, and let 'em roll in.......fools.

Let’s keep the QAnon conspiracies to the politics threads.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Let’s keep the QAnon conspiracies to the politics threads.

I was going to suggest Parler...that’s back up, right?

 

[Heppenheimer]

Can anyone find a link to the actual official Johnson & Johnson trial (ENSEMBLE 2) paper? The other two vaccines had their results published in the New England Journal of Medicine, but I don't see any new information about ENSEMBLE 2 in the latest issue. The J&J website only contains a press release without any links to the actual trial. All the news reports seem to cover information in the press release, not necessarily the trial data.

 

[GoofGoof]

On real vaccine news the JnJ results are bitter sweet. It’s great that it protects 100% against hospitalization and death. It’s great that of the people infected 85% had mild illness. The bitter part is 66% vs 95%. That’s a big difference. I think it has to be publicized that the US results were 72% to compare apples to apples. Still much lower. The other thing to stress is that it’s one dose and then infections after 28 days. It was shown in the early phase trials that the JnJ shot took 60 days to result in antibody development in all participants. A portion had little or no antibodies at 28 days but later developed them so it’s possible if they only look at infections post 60 days the number is much higher. JnJ is also running a simulataneous trial using 2 doses. It’s possible that that trial shows an efficacy closer to Pfizer and Moderna and if thats the case they will recommend a booster later on to anyone who got the shot.

I think what’s likey to happen is this vaccine is rolled out to the lower risk population. There are a large number of essential workers in the phase 1b and 1c groups who they want to vaccinate ASAP. They will likely allocate the Pfizer and Moderna shots for the elderly and higher risk population and roll out JnJ for essential workers. This way they can easily send the doses to a school district for teachers or a grocery store chain or Amazon or Walmart or FedEx or Disney to quickly blow through large numbers of essential, public facing workers.

When we went through the numbers earlier there were roughly 153M people in the elderly and high risk group so assumimg 80% participation that‘s 122M people who will need to go. We are expecting to have enough doses for 110M people by the end of March from Pfizer and Moderna so the elderly and high risk group should be done early March. If JnJ comes online by March 1 they can cover all of the 87M people considered essential workers in March and April. So some time in April the vaccines will open to the general public that is left. Probably around 30M more shots from JnJ and then the rest from the Pfizer and Moderna coming in Q2. We are still on track to have every adult who wants a vaccine done by the end of May.

 

[GoofGoof]

I am curious to see how the 66% number impacts vaccine resistance. Will more people say no thanks now if the vaccine they are offered is JnJ?

 

[ToTBellHop]

On real vaccine news the JnJ results are bitter sweet. It’s great that it protects 100% against hospitalization and death. It’s great that of the people infected 85% had mild illness. The bitter part is 66% vs 95%. That’s a big difference. I think it has to be publicized that the US results were 72% to compare apples to apples. Still much lower. The other thing to stress is that it’s one dose and then infections after 28 days. It was shown in the early phase trials that the JnJ shot took 60 days to result in antibody development in all participants. A portion had little or no antibodies at 28 days but later developed them so it’s possible if they only look at infections post 60 days the number is much higher. JnJ is also running a simulataneous trial using 2 doses. It’s possible that that trial shows an efficacy closer to Pfizer and Moderna and if thats the case they will recommend a booster later on to anyone who got the shot.

I think what’s likey to happen is this vaccine is rolled out to the lower risk population. There are a large number of essential workers in the phase 1b and 1c groups who they want to vaccinate ASAP. They will likely allocate the Pfizer and Moderna shots for the elderly and higher risk population and roll out JnJ for essential workers. This way they can easily send the doses to a school district for teachers or a grocery store chain or Amazon or Walmart or FedEx or Disney to quickly blow through large numbers of essential, public facing workers.

When we went through the numbers earlier there were roughly 153M people in the elderly and high risk group so assumimg 80% participation that‘s 122M people who will need to go. We are expecting to have enough doses for 110M people by the end of March from Pfizer and Moderna so the elderly and high risk group should be done early March. If JnJ comes online by March 1 they can cover all of the 87M people considered essential workers in March and April. So some time in April the vaccines will open to the general public that is left. Probably around 30M more shots from JnJ and then the rest from the Pfizer and Moderna coming in Q2. We are still on track to have every adult who wants a vaccine done by the end of May.

I’m not sure that’s exactly how it will play out. Americans like options. Those who know the science (like a lot of teachers) are going to want Moderna or Pfizer and you have scientists already going onto CNN saying some version of “I would seek out an mRNA vaccine if at all possible and if I couldn’t get one, settle for JnJ.” Teachers are already annoyed that they keep getting pushed back. If they say, “it’s finally your turn! Take this pretty-good vaccine since we are saving the really good ones for someone else!” they’ll lose it.

FWIW, I don’t think there will actually be all that much JnJ vaccine during Phase 1B. Based upon what I’m already hearing from folks like Fauci, I gather JnJ’s vaccine won’t be used very widely in the USA. Most Americans will get Moderna or Pfizer. JnJ is a good option for those who are harder to convince (or populations like undocumented Americans who will be difficult to get back for dose 2) and, as the cheapest of the 3 vaccines and easiest to transport, a good one to donate excess doses to developing nations. “Take this for free! We don’t want it anyway!” I gather the Biden Administration received a heads up which is why they bought another 200m of the “good vaccines.”

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m not sure that’s exactly how it will play out. Americans like options. Those who know the science (like a lot of teachers) are going to want Moderna or Pfizer and you have scientists already going onto CNN saying some version of “I would seek out an mRNA vaccine if at all possible and if I couldn’t get one, settle for JnJ.” Teachers are already annoyed that they keep getting pushed back. If they say, “it’s finally your turn! Take this pretty-good vaccine since we are saving the really good ones for someone else!” they’ll lose it.

FWIW, I don’t think there will actually be all that much JnJ vaccine during Phase 1B.

Then we wait. Summer is probably lost and we reach herd immunity this fall. Not a terrible outcome but disappointing. We won’t have enough Pfizer and Moderna vaccine for everyone until Q3 so not done until Aug or Sep. It’s everyone’s right to want to wait but the result of that should be highly publicized. The economic consequences are obviously devastating and cases and deaths will obviously be higher as people wait for the better vaccines. It’s in the best interest of the country and society for people to use all available resources.

Not to mention the fact that as we wait for the “good“ vaccine if a variant pops up that is resistant to the vaccines we start all over. Best to get cases flat lining as fast as possible vs waiting around.

 

[danlb_2000]

I never had a flu shot in my life, nor will I take this vaccine. Given the hurried nature of its development and the fact that there will be millions of people around me that have the vaccine, I don't see the point. My wife and daughter are in the health field and are disappointed with my decision, but I feel that herd immunity and the natural course of the virus will wane over time. The bigger concern is how this virus started. If there are labs in China or Russia or Iran that are growing these strains of disease, that is more important to focus on because this is just the first of several. Open up the borders, and let 'em roll in.......fools.

If you think it was rushed, please site a source that shows which safety steps were skipped to get it our quicker.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I never had a flu shot in my life, nor will I take this vaccine. Given the hurried nature of its development and the fact that there will be millions of people around me that have the vaccine, I don't see the point. My wife and daughter are in the health field and are disappointed with my decision, but I feel that herd immunity and the natural course of the virus will wane over time. The bigger concern is how this virus started. If there are labs in China or Russia or Iran that are growing these strains of disease, that is more important to focus on because this is just the first of several. Open up the borders, and let 'em roll in.......fools.

I'll be somewhat of the good cop here, at least on why the vaccines came out so quickly.

There were no skipped safety steps in the development of these vaccines. The reasons for the quick development:

1) The specific technique using mRNA has already been in development for over a decade. This technique allows for very rapid early development of new vaccines because all you need to know is the complete structure of the specific viral protein the vaccine is meant to target, and with modern lab techniques that didn't exist until the last few decades (like polymerase chain reactors and others), you can sequence an entire protein or genome in a matter of hours, whereas before it may have taken months or even years.

2) The urgency of finding a vaccine for a disease that has now become the 3rd leading cause of death in the world meant that governments were willing to guarantee the purchase of the vaccines even before they were approved. This guaranteed financing meant that drug companies could skip several lengthy administrative steps in the vaccine development process that would traditionally be spent soliciting investor capital.

3) The very fact that the pandemic was raging out of control allowed the researches to rapidly accumulate enough cases in the control group to reach statistical significance for the vaccine effect in the treatment group. For diseases that have thousands of cases per year, it can take up to a decade to reach statistical significance, but for this pandemic, worldwide, we can count the cases accumulating in the 100,000s EVERY SINGLE DAY.

Right now, these vaccines have been more widely tested and monitored than any previous inoculation in history. The safety and efficacy data are overwhelming convincing. We are approaching two months out since the Pfizer vaccine was approved, and of the most concerning side-effect typically associated with vaccines, Guillain-Barre syndrome, we HAVE NOT SEEN A SINGLE CASE. The worst we have seen are anaphylactic reactions, a severe but easily treatable condition, but at an even lower rate than typical for other vaccines.

You really need to reconsider your sources of information.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Then we wait. Summer is probably lost and we reach herd immunity this fall. Not a terrible outcome but disappointing. We won’t have enough Pfizer and Moderna vaccine for everyone until Q3 so not done until Aug or Sep. It’s everyone’s right to want to wait but the result of that should be highly publicized. The economic consequences are obviously devastating and cases and deaths will obviously be higher as people wait for the better vaccines. It’s in the best interest of the country and society for people to use all available resources.

Not to mention the fact that as we wait for the “good“ vaccine if a variant pops up that is resistant to the vaccines we start all over. Best to get cases flat lining as fast as possible vs waiting around.

The variant ship has sailed. Modelers expect the S. African variant to account for 80% of cases by 5/1.

I agree with you that any adult who WANTS a vaccine can get one by the end of May. That’s about half of us. Then the convincing starts as supply exceeds demand this summer. Don’t forget. We already know Novavax works well and we should have that in the spring. How many doses did we order? 100 million like the others, I imagine? That’s another 2-dose.

We should not be terribly surprised by JnJ today. It works like the AstraZeneca vaccine and is similarly efficacious.

 

[danlb_2000]

I am wondering how they define "severe disease"? To me "severe" would be someone who required hospitalization, but the second quote said that if protected everyone from being hospitalized.


"A global study of nearly 44,000 found that the COVID-19 vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson is 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe disease.

"The vaccine did demonstrate complete protection against COVID-19 serious enough to require hospitalization, according to a news release from the company. The vaccine was 85% percent effective in preventing severe forms of the disease."