Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[danlb_2000]

I'll be somewhat of the good cop here, at least on why the vaccines came out so quickly.

There were no skipped safety steps in the development of these vaccines. The reasons for the quick development:

1) The specific technique using mRNA has already been in development for over a decade. This technique allows for very rapid early development of new vaccines because all you need to know is the complete structure of the specific viral protein the vaccine is meant to target, and with modern lab techniques that didn't exist until the last few decades (like polymerase chain reactors), you can sequence an entire protein or genome in a matter of hours, whereas before it may have taken months or even years.

2) The urgency of finding a vaccine for a disease that has now become the 3rd leading cause of death in the world meant that governments were willing to guarantee the purchase of the vaccines even before they were approved. This guaranteed financing meant that drug companies could skip several lengthy administrative steps in the vaccine development process that would traditionally be spent soliciting investor capital.

3) The very fact that the pandemic was raging out of control allowed the researches to rapidly accumulate enough cases in the control group to reach statistical significance for the vaccine effect in the treatment group. For diseases that have thousands of cases per year, it can take up to a decade to reach statistical significance, but for this pandemic, worldwide, we can count the cases accumulating in the 100,000s EVERY SINGLE DAY.

Right now, these vaccines have been more widely tested and monitored than any previous inoculuation in history. The safety and efficacy data are overwhelming convincing. We are approaching two months out since the Pfizer vaccine was approved, and of the most concerning side-effect typically associated with vaccines, Guillain-Barre syndrome, we HAVE NOT SEEN A SINGLE CASE. the worst we have seen are anaphylactic reactions, a severe but easily treatable condition, but at an even lower rate than typical for other vaccines.

You really need to reconsider your sources of information.

They also did a lot of things in parallel instead of doing it step by step like they would normally do. So, for example, they started ramping up the manufacturing operations before the trials were even complete. This is not something that would normally happen since it it financially risky. If a problem was found during trials, they could end up having to discard everything they had already made.

 

[danlb_2000]

I am wondering how they define "severe disease"? To me "severe" would be someone who required hospitalization, but the second quote said that if protected everyone from being hospitalized.


"A global study of nearly 44,000 found that the COVID-19 vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson is 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe disease.

"The vaccine did demonstrate complete protection against COVID-19 serious enough to require hospitalization, according to a news release from the company. The vaccine was 85% percent effective in preventing severe forms of the disease."

After reading the official J&J press release I am even more confused. Most of the things they list as severe would require hospitalization.

"In the study, the definition of severe COVID-19 disease included laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and one or more of the following: signs consistent with severe systemic illness, admission to an intensive care unit, respiratory failure, shock, organ failure or death, among other factors."

 

[ToTBellHop]

I am wondering how they define "severe disease"? To me "severe" would be someone who required hospitalization, but the second quote said that if protected everyone from being hospitalized.


"A global study of nearly 44,000 found that the COVID-19 vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson is 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe disease.

"The vaccine did demonstrate complete protection against COVID-19 serious enough to require hospitalization, according to a news release from the company. The vaccine was 85% percent effective in preventing severe forms of the disease."

Severe is subjective here: you feel “awful” but may or may not require hospitalization. I agree it is confusing. Not everyone goes to the hospital, I guess. They are being vague—not sure what “other factors” are. I presume the FDA will ask. Moderate feels like a bad cold, but you are otherwise fine.

If 15% are getting sick enough to know it, they‘re certainly contagious. But not requiring hospitalization and not dying is nothing to shake a stick at. It does feel like they are being selective in their statistics. The full white paper will be interesting.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I would be curious to hear about efficacy 2 months out. If you recall, in the Phase I/II, some had no antibodies at 28 days but everyone did after 2 months. I understand these are interim data and there is public demand for vaccine, but the final data is likely to show higher efficacy. In the meantime, it would certainly be prudent to give a dose to appropriate populations—in particular, at-risk groups for whom the mRNA vaccines are not advisable.

 

[correcaminos]

I never had a flu shot in my life, nor will I take this vaccine. Given the hurried nature of its development and the fact that there will be millions of people around me that have the vaccine, I don't see the point. My wife and daughter are in the health field and are disappointed with my decision, but I feel that herd immunity and the natural course of the virus will wane over time. The bigger concern is how this virus started. If there are labs in China or Russia or Iran that are growing these strains of disease, that is more important to focus on because this is just the first of several. Open up the borders, and let 'em roll in.......fools.

Truly I think you need to listen to your wife and daughter. They are in the health field. You are not. Why not listen to those who know? Your feelings are just opinions and truly not based on real fact. Your concerns on how this started are not based on anything really factual either. If you choose not to vaccinate I do hope you stay home.

 

[sullyinMT]

Severe is subjective here: you feel “awful” but may or may not require hospitalization. I agree it is confusing. Not everyone goes to the hospital, I guess. They are being vague—not sure what “other factors” are. I presume the FDA will ask. Moderate feels like a bad cold, but you are otherwise fine.

If 15% are getting sick enough to know it, they‘re certainly contagious. But not requiring hospitalization and not dying is nothing to shake a stick at. It does feel like they are being selective in their statistics. The full white paper will be interesting.

I wonder, too, how many of those “severe” cases were discharged from an ER with an Rx for home O2. We have a friend in TN who wasn’t “severe” enough to occupy a bed, but took a tank home from the home health supply for the better part of two weeks.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I wonder, too, how many of those “severe” cases were discharged from an ER with an Rx for home O2. We have a friend in TN who wasn’t “severe” enough to occupy a bed, but took a tank home from the home health supply for the better part of two weeks.

Exactly. There simply aren’t enough beds in some locations, so those who are severe but can treat at home, or so severe that they will “likely” die, are being turned away from some hospitals.

 

[Shouldigo12]

On real vaccine news the JnJ results are bitter sweet. It’s great that it protects 100% against hospitalization and death. It’s great that of the people infected 85% had mild illness. The bitter part is 66% vs 95%. That’s a big difference. I think it has to be publicized that the US results were 72% to compare apples to apples. Still much lower. The other thing to stress is that it’s one dose and then infections after 28 days. It was shown in the early phase trials that the JnJ shot took 60 days to result in antibody development in all participants. A portion had little or no antibodies at 28 days but later developed them so it’s possible if they only look at infections post 60 days the number is much higher. JnJ is also running a simulataneous trial using 2 doses. It’s possible that that trial shows an efficacy closer to Pfizer and Moderna and if thats the case they will recommend a booster later on to anyone who got the shot.

I think what’s likey to happen is this vaccine is rolled out to the lower risk population. There are a large number of essential workers in the phase 1b and 1c groups who they want to vaccinate ASAP. They will likely allocate the Pfizer and Moderna shots for the elderly and higher risk population and roll out JnJ for essential workers. This way they can easily send the doses to a school district for teachers or a grocery store chain or Amazon or Walmart or FedEx or Disney to quickly blow through large numbers of essential, public facing workers.

When we went through the numbers earlier there were roughly 153M people in the elderly and high risk group so assumimg 80% participation that‘s 122M people who will need to go. We are expecting to have enough doses for 110M people by the end of March from Pfizer and Moderna so the elderly and high risk group should be done early March. If JnJ comes online by March 1 they can cover all of the 87M people considered essential workers in March and April. So some time in April the vaccines will open to the general public that is left. Probably around 30M more shots from JnJ and then the rest from the Pfizer and Moderna coming in Q2. We are still on track to have every adult who wants a vaccine done by the end of May.

I am curious to see how the 66% number impacts vaccine resistance. Will more people say no thanks now if the vaccine they are offered is JnJ?

I don't know what I would do, honestly. On the one hand I'm kind of desperate for any sort of immunity, but on the other getting a vaccine that might take even longer to be fully effective (60 days vs a max of 42, unless my math is wrong) and has a lower effectiveness to boot is concerning. I'm also with Mansion- essential workers who have been putting themselves at risk for a year are not going to be happy if they're told their reward is getting a less effective vaccine than everyone else. I can see many of my coworkers taking a "screw it, I've risked myself for 12 months, I can wait a few more for something better" approach.

If JnJ could explain what they considered severe cases better, then I could could better say whether I would take it or not.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I don't know what I would do, honestly. On the one hand I'm kind of desperate for any sort of immunity, but on the other getting a vaccine that might take even longer to be fully effective (60 days vs a max of 42, unless my math is wrong) and has a lower effectiveness to boot is concerning. I'm also with Mansion- essential workers who have been putting themselves at risk for a year are not going to be happy if they're told their reward is getting a less effective vaccine than everyone else. I can see many of my coworkers taking a "screw it, I've risked myself for 12 months, I can wait a few more for something better" approach.

If JnJ could explain what they considered severe cases better, then I could could better say whether I would take it or not.

I really think JnJ would be better for groups like healthy, young college students, the undocumented, and the uninsured—groups where one dose is ideal and 72% efficacy is largely acceptable. Those who deeply want the vaccine should be able to get the mRNA vaccine if they want it. And I imagine they will be able to.

 

[Shouldigo12]

I really think JnJ would be better for groups like healthy, young college students, the undocumented, and the uninsured—groups where one dose is ideal and 72% efficacy is largely acceptable. Those who deeply want the vaccine should be able to get the mRNA vaccine if they want it. And I imagine they will be able to.

Oh, yeah. Although I think if communication needs to be strong for any vaccine, it's this one. We need to make sure people know that the efficiency, while lower than Pfizer or Moderns, isn't bad.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Another 1.7 million shots into arms today. The numbers follow a pattern (lower reporting following the weekends), but it seems we’ve held steady around 1.3 million doses per week. We should expect that to increase 16% in the next week or 2 (if not a bit more as 2nd dose counts rise). 1.5 million per day by Valentine’s Day, if not even more.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Oh, yeah. Although I think if communication needs to be strong for any vaccine, it's this one. We need to make sure people know that the efficiency, while lower than Pfizer or Moderns, isn't bad.

Yes. After early criticism, I’ve noticed the messaging shift throughout the day. It’s good that they now care about marketing this well. We need Fauci everywhere. I’m talking, you go to Wendy’s, “This is Dr. Fauci. Have you heard the good news about vaccination? Can I take your order?”

 

[GoofGoof]

Another 1.7 million shots into arms today. The numbers follow a pattern (lower reporting following the weekends), but it seems we’ve held steady around 1.3 million doses per week. We should expect that to increase 16% in the next week or 2 (if not a bit more as 2nd dose counts rise). 1.5 million per day by Valentine’s Day, if not even more.

Good progress the last few days. Assuming Pfizer and Moderna make their targets we should ramp up to 2.5M daily average soon.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I'll take 66% efficacy from JnJ over 0% from no vaccine.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I'll take 66% efficacy from JnJ over 0% from no vaccine.

Was the efficacy of bleach ever released?

 

[Heppenheimer]

I wonder, too, how many of those “severe” cases were discharged from an ER with an Rx for home O2. We have a friend in TN who wasn’t “severe” enough to occupy a bed, but took a tank home from the home health supply for the better part of two weeks.

Exactly how they define these terms is usually included in the research paper. As of this morning when I last searched, I couldn't find if it had beem officially released yet. As of right now, we only seem to have a press release, not the actual journal article-caliber paper.

 

[danlb_2000]

Was the efficacy of bleach ever released?

If you drink a cup or two of bleach I guarantee you will no longer have to worry about the virus.

 

[danlb_2000]

Exactly how they define these terms is usually included in the research paper. As of this morning when I last searched, I couldn't find if it had beem officially released yet. As of right now, we only seem to have a press release, not the actual journal article-caliber paper.

The official press release from J&J defines it ...

"In the study, the definition of severe COVID-19 disease included laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and one or more of the following: signs consistent with severe systemic illness, admission to an intensive care unit, respiratory failure, shock, organ failure or death, among other factors."

 

[networkpro]

Truly I think you need to listen to your wife and daughter. They are in the health field. You are not. Why not listen to those who know? Your feelings are just opinions and truly not based on real fact. Your concerns on how this started are not based on anything really factual either. If you choose not to vaccinate I do hope you stay home.

I heartily agree. My wife's covid-19 illness this spring was brutal. She's AB- bloodtype with asthma which seems to be a bad combination. She slept sitting up for a week because she could feel the fluid buildup and it hurt to lay down. Thankfully we got her first Moderna shot yesterday. You can get Covid multiple times.

Anecdotal "evidence " about the efficacy of flu shots which are only 40 to 60% in good years just shows the lack of understanding of how inoculations work.

Edited on a desktop because still phones suck.

 

[Shouldigo12]

The official press release from J&J defines it ...

"In the study, the definition of severe COVID-19 disease included laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and one or more of the following: signs consistent with severe systemic illness, admission to an intensive care unit, respiratory failure, shock, organ failure or death, among other factors."

But the press release also claimed no one was hospitalized, no? So it's a bit confusing that severe illness is defined as organ failure, respiratory failure, and admission to an ICU but they're also saying no one was hospitalized.