Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

Will you take a Covid vaccine once one is approved and deemed safe and effective by the FDA?

  • Yes, stick me please

  • No, I will wait

  • No, I will never take one


Results are only viewable after voting.

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Moderna reported its vaccine saw no significant decrease in the impact of neutralizing antibodies against the strain first discovered in the UK but saw a 6-fold decrease in neutralizing titers against the strain first discovered in S. Africa. With that said, these vaccines are so effective that even that reduction will still leave the vaccine effective against that strain.

This does highlight the need to enhance social distancing and limit international travel until more are vaccinated.

Got an appointment for my wife and my father-in-law for the Fauci-Ouchie in February along with me. Hoping to schedule mother-in-law today.
Bolding in case others miss ;)

Glad you got appointments scheduled. It is a long way away until we can schedule my spouse
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
Quick vaccine update:
Johnson and Johnson expects to release phase 3 trial data early next week. They will have reached the required number of infections and also had 50% of participants reach the 2 months for safety so if the results are good it should take 2-3 weeks to get EUA and full ramp up in shots by March 1. The CFO also confirmed on their earnings call that they have the manufacturing capacity to reach their contracted sales on time so 100M doses to the US by the end of June and likely sooner. One board member said end of April.
Pfizer has increased their projected deliveries to 120M doses by March 31 and the full 200M purchased by the end of May now (2 months early).
Moderna has confirmed their target of 100M doses by March 31 and the full 200M doses by June 30.

Assuming no major manufacturing issues and also assuming JnJ gets approved it‘s looking pretty good that we will have enough doses for 300M people (90% of the population) by the end of June. :)
 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
Quick vaccine update:
Johnson and Johnson expects to release phase 3 trial data early next week. They will have reached the required number of infections and also had 50% of participants reach the 2 months for safety so if the results are good it should take 2-3 weeks to get EUA and full ramp up in shots by March 1. The CFO also confirmed on their earnings call that they have the manufacturing capacity to reach their contracted sales on time so 100M doses to the US by the end of June and likely sooner. One board member said end of April.
Pfizer has increased their projected deliveries to 120M doses by March 31 and the full 200M purchased by the end of May now (2 months early).
Moderna has confirmed their target of 100M doses by March 31 and the full 200M doses by June 30.

Assuming no major manufacturing issues and also assuming JnJ gets approved it‘s looking pretty good that we will have enough doses for 300M people (90% of the population) by the end of June. :)
Better get studies in younger kids going, or we will have doses with no interested arms. JnJ vaccine as the prize in a Happy Meal?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
Better get studies in younger kids going, or we will have doses with no interested arms. JnJ vaccine as the prize in a Happy Meal?
Yep, so far Pfizer on pace to be down to 12 by April but a trial of 5 to 11 year olds hasn‘t started. I do wonder if there will be enough infections in a placebo group to show efficacy if that trial doesn‘t start until the summer. I think they have to start enrolling in March and shoot to be done in June.

Edit:
From what I could find online it looks like about 50M kids under 12 in the US. So if they don’t get the 5-11 approval before the end of June we will only have 280M people eligible and 300M doses. On top of that, assuming only 80% of those eligible actually take the vaccine we will also have a surplus. At some point once the dust settles I would assume those doses are sent to other countries.
 
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ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
Yep, so far Pfizer on pace to be down to 12 by April but a trial of 5 to 11 year olds hasn‘t started. I do wonder if there will be enough infections in a placebo group to show efficacy if that trial doesn‘t start until the summer. I think they have to start enrolling in March and shoot to be done in June.

Edit:
From what I could find online it looks like about 50M kids under 12 in the US. So if they don’t get the 5-11 approval before the end of June we will only have 280M people eligible and 300M doses. On top of that, assuming only 80% of those eligible actually take the vaccine we will also have a surplus. At some point once the dust settles I would assume those doses are sent to other countries.
I doubt we send them anywhere until kids are eligible, however. But once all Americans have had the option, sure. I presume they’d have to pay us what we paid, however. Imagine the Facebook comments if our expensive vaccines are given to a developing nation for free.

Granted, it seems the EU put its eggs in the wrong baskets and would be willing and able to buy our excess.

Has Pfizer said 5-11 is the next study group?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
I doubt we send them anywhere until kids are eligible, however. But once all Americans have had the option, sure. I presume they’d have to pay us what we paid, however. Imagine the Facebook comments if our expensive vaccines are given to a developing nation for free.

Granted, it seems the EU put its eggs in the wrong baskets and would be willing and able to buy our excess.

Has Pfizer said 5-11 is the next study group?
That’s what I had seen. They mentioned 5-11 being the next group with a target of getting them done before the start of the next school year. That would cover all school age kids. I think the issue there is they typically would be testing different lower doses as opposed to just the standard dose given to adults to see how low a dose is possible and also still effective. Pfizer said if the adolescent trial goes well with very few adverse reactions it’s possible they don’t need to do that step and just use the standard dose. Either way if they start in April it will probably take at least 2-3 months. An approval by July 1 would be amazing with kids under 5 in the fall.

 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
Moving forward into Q3, the Biden Administration has announced the purchase of 100m Pfizer vaccines and 100m Moderna vaccines to be delivered by 9/30/21. That is 600 million doses by the end of summer.

States were informed their vaccine deliveries will increase by nearly 20% starting next week (from 8.6 million per week to at least 10 million).

They claim every American can be vaccinated by the end of summer.
 

Patcheslee

Well-Known Member
That’s what I had seen. They mentioned 5-11 being the next group with a target of getting them done before the start of the next school year. That would cover all school age kids. I think the issue there is they typically would be testing different lower doses as opposed to just the standard dose given to adults to see how low a dose is possible and also still effective. Pfizer said if the adolescent trial goes well with very few adverse reactions it’s possible they don’t need to do that step and just use the standard dose. Either way if they start in April it will probably take at least 2-3 months. An approval by July 1 would be amazing with kids under 5 in the fall.

So am I understanding correct that vaccine dosages may not be the same for kids as adults? Why would they try a lower dose if they don't work like medication besides the economic positive of more dose per vial.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
So am I understanding correct that vaccine dosages may not be the same for kids as adults? Why would they try a lower dose if they don't work like medication besides the economic positive of more dose per vial.
I’m no doctor, but from what I read online (famous last words) children have a more robust immune system so they don’t need as much of a dose to get the same reaction. As we get older the immune system slows down so a larger dose is needed. Also why for something like the flu shot they actually have a senior citizen version which is more potent to encourage a larger response. I think the rationale is that with kids being lower risk already they want to avoid unnecessary adverse reactions. However, since the adverse reactions in adults are relatively mild and mostly harmless if the adolescent trial shows that as well they may consider skipping that process and running the trial with the same dose as adolescents.

You are correct that it’s not like medications which work by weight vs age. In other words my 11 year old who is larger than my wife may get by with a lesser dose of Covid vaccine because of his immune system, not his size.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Better get studies in younger kids going, or we will have doses with no interested arms.

Vaccine Tourism. Especially from Canada. There will be plenty of people getting shots if you don't have to be a resident to get one.

So far less than 900,000 doses have been administered North of the border and supply is running low. If you sell it, they will come.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Original Poster
I’m a teacher and I have yet to set an appointment. We will see.
Where I live teachers can start next month. So I hope you get yours soon!

If I had not been in a trial I was pretty much bottom of the list. My spouse is slightly above me.
Where I am they moved 65+ and underlying conditions to group 1a ahead of essential workers which includes teachers who are still in 1b. My county has 800K people and 250K of them now qualify in 1a. It’s going to be a while for essential workers. Probably March or April at best :(
 

Patcheslee

Well-Known Member
Where I am they moved 65+ and underlying conditions to group 1a ahead of essential workers which includes teachers who are still in 1b. My county has 800K people and 250K of them now qualify in 1a. It’s going to be a while for essential workers. Probably March or April at best :(
You're over in Ohio right? Have a family friend that's talked about taking her 52yo son with down syndrome over to Ohio because he can't get it in Indiana yet. Has asthma, type 1 diabetes, and heart problems to top it all off. :(For them it's about a 45 minute drive to Cincinnati. I understand the reason because he's still reporting to his job everyday and non working days is at a special needs center. There has to be a middle ground somewhere. Bordering states tried to work together months ago for quarantine, mask, etc. requirements. But seems they've all gone their separate ways.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
You're over in Ohio right? Have a family friend that's talked about taking her 52yo son with down syndrome over to Ohio because he can't get it in Indiana yet. Has asthma, type 1 diabetes, and heart problems to top it all off. :(For them it's about a 45 minute drive to Cincinnati. I understand the reason because he's still reporting to his job everyday and non working days is at a special needs center. There has to be a middle ground somewhere. Bordering states tried to work together months ago for quarantine, mask, etc. requirements. But seems they've all gone their separate ways.
No, I'm in Ohio. Ohio is not this way. We are in 1b at this time. Asthma and T1D are not allowed unless severe - which means hospitalized in the last year for it. Down Syndrome was allowed as of this week. Teachers with in person classes starting the 1st. As a warning many places are asking for addresses in sign up and ID upon check in. Moving one county hasn't been an issue, but out of state might get you an auto cancellation like some have faced.

Where I am they moved 65+ and underlying conditions to group 1a ahead of essential workers which includes teachers who are still in 1b. My county has 800K people and 250K of them now qualify in 1a. It’s going to be a while for essential workers. Probably March or April at best :(
That's a bit unnerving in a way. We are doing steps. 75+ allowed this. 70+ next. Teachers starting the 1st with them. Not sure where all essentials fall but health care allowed of course. Some talk about T1D not as severe starting the 15th. We're just kind of watching to see.
 

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