Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[Shouldigo12]

I’d take either, but assuming J&J comes online we’re obviously better off at 1/3 of the population fully vaccinated by May 1.

I’ve always taken the 100M shots in 100 days as a nice even numbered slogan. With 16 million already administered in a clunky rollout of a month, I’d imagine 100 million individual doses is more than doable.

Oh god, it has only been a month hasn't it? It feels like it was years ago I saw headline the first US shot had been administered.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I’d take either, but assuming J&J comes online we’re obviously better off at 1/3 of the population fully vaccinated by May 1.

I’ve always taken the 100M shots in 100 days as a nice even numbered slogan. With 16 million already administered in a clunky rollout of a month, I’d imagine 100 million individual doses is more than doable.

Oh yes, and it is better to underpromise and overdeliver than the opposite (20 m in December was never reasonable).

 

[Shouldigo12]

Oh yes, and it is better to underpromise and overdeliver than the opposite (20 m in December was never reasonable).

I was surprised everyone else was surprised we didn't meet that goal. For one, when are things ever on schedule? Two, the vaccine rollout, behind the scenes, was no doubt a logistical nightmare. It has to be expected it would take time for the ball to get rolling and people to figure out the most efficient system.

The vaccine being approved right before the holidays and a lot of the people in 1a not wanting the vaccine didn't help things either.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Good news/bad news. Good news: the blood of those vaccinated by the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines reacts against the newer COVID-19 variants and they could modify the vaccines to make them even better.

Bad news: the antibodies in some who caught the virus are not reactive toward some new variants.

So scientists will work on improving the shots over time and you should get one, if it is advisable, as soon as you’re allowed.

16.5 million doses administered. Still averaging 800k/day

 

[Disney Experience]

Covid-19 convalescent plasma is still investigational; meanwhile blood donation organization are collecting it. They will not collect it if one has received a covid vaccination even if one was covid positive in the past.

I am not studied up on the subject, but even the blood donation workers found the restriction puzzling. I could only speculate to them is that using vaccinated blood plasma has not gone through any studies yet and therefore they do not want to mix it into the pure convalescent plasma supplies.

Investigational COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma - Emergency INDs

Updated information for health care providers regarding treatment of COVID-19 with convalescent plasma

www.fda.gov

 

[ToTBellHop]

Covid-19 convalescent plasma is still investigational; meanwhile blood donation organization are collecting it. They will not collect it if one has received a covid vaccination even if one was covid positive in the past.

I am not studied up on the subject, but even the blood donation workers found the restriction puzzling. I could only speculate to them is that using vaccinated blood plasma has not gone through any studies yet and therefore they do not want to mix it into the pure convalescent plasma supplies.

Investigational COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma - Emergency INDs

Updated information for health care providers regarding treatment of COVID-19 with convalescent plasma

www.fda.gov

Exactly. It isn’t a permanent restriction.

 

[GoofGoof]

Further thought: do they mean 100 million total doses (shouldn’t be a problem considering we’ve purchased 200 million deliverable by 3/30) or 100 million PEOPLE vaccinated (more impressive but we should have the doses)?

It’s hard to tell. They say 100M shots a lot but then today Fauci said 100M people vaccinated. Running the numbers we should have plenty of doses considering Pfizer and Moderna both contracted to have 100M doses in Q1 and 100M in Q2 (last 30M from Pfizer coming in July). Even if that first 100M doses slips a month or 2 that’s still 200M total doses by May 1 and should be millions more. That also doesn‘t count JnJ or AstraZeneca if either get approved.

On the vaccination pace we averaged 1.3M doses a day over the last 3 days and the 7 day average is 940,000 a day and that includes a holiday weekend (MLK day was only 400K). If it’s 100M people we need to get to 2M a day on average. Considering many of the major chains aren’t even involved and CVS alone says they have the capacity to do 1M vaccinations a day nationwide I’d say it’s very doable to go from 940K to 2M a day.

That includes just Pfizer and Moderna in the mix. If we get JnJ approved and they reach their target of 60M doses delivered by May 1 that’s 60M more people done. So we could get to 160M people by May 1 which is almost half the population or 60% of adults if kids aren’t approved yet. Throw in AstraZeneca and maybe we get to something like 200M people or 60% of the population done. That seems like a really tough target to reach and even with 60M single dose JnJ vaccines we’d have to ramp up to 3 to 4 million doses a day for the 100 hundred days to get there. Maybe that slips to July 1 instead of May 1 but if we have 60% of the population done by July 1 that would be pretty solid. Should cut cases dramatically. Some estimates have herd immunity with only 60% immune. Lots of logistics but now that the path is cleared for the states to ramp up the national guard and other financial help it’s possible.

 

[ToTBellHop]

It’s hard to tell. They say 100M shots a lot but then today Fauci said 100M people vaccinated. Running the numbers we should have plenty of doses considering Pfizer and Moderna both contracted to have 100M doses in Q1 and 100M in Q2 (last 30M from Pfizer coming in July). Even if that first 100M doses slips a month or 2 that’s still 200M total doses by May 1 and should be millions more. That also doesn‘t count JnJ or AstraZeneca if either get approved.

On the vaccination pace we averaged 1.3M doses a day over the last 3 days and the 7 day average is 940,000 a day and that includes a holiday weekend (MLK day was only 400K). If it’s 100M people we need to get to 2M a day on average. Considering many of the major chains aren’t even involved and CVS alone says they have the capacity to do 1M vaccinations a day nationwide I’d say it’s very doable to go from 940K to 2M a day.

That includes just Pfizer and Moderna in the mix. If we get JnJ approved and they reach their target of 60M doses delivered by May 1 that’s 60M more people done. So we could get to 160M people by May 1 which is almost half the population or 60% of adults if kids aren’t approved yet. Throw in AstraZeneca and maybe we get to something like 200M people or 60% of the population done. That seems like a really tough target to reach and even with 60M single dose JnJ vaccines we’d have to ramp up to 3 to 4 million doses a day for the 100 hundred days to get there. Maybe that slips to July 1 instead of May 1 but if we have 60% of the population done by July 1 that would be pretty solid. Should cut cases dramatically. Some estimates have herd immunity with only 60% immune. Lots of logistics but now that the path is cleared for the states to ramp up the national guard and other financial help it’s possible.

I would agree that 100 million people receiving at least the first dose by 4/30 (and 2nd then by 5/28) should be quite doable. It would also be a remarkable achievement.

 

[GoofGoof]

On the JnJ front, Fauci said today he expects the trial results in a week or 2. This is in line with JnJ execs who said last week of Jan or first week of Feb. It took Pfizer and Moderna about 3 weeks from trial results to FDA emergency use authorization. So possibly ready to roll by mid to end of February.

From the attached article:

Johnson & Johnson board member Dr. Mark McClellan told CNBC that "if the clinical trial works out," the company could significantly increase the nation's Covid vaccine supply availability within the coming weeks. "I do know that J&J is making a very large supply, going all out with its production, both here in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world, with the goal of having perhaps enough vaccines for 100 million Americans by spring, by this April or so," said the former FDA Commissioner in a Thursday evening interview on "The News with Shepard Smith."

Johnson & Johnson plans to have 100 million vaccines for Americans by spring, board member says

 

[Lilofan]

My dad (75) just got it today. Mom (72) scheduled for this Saturday. My dad has had zero symptoms and no soreness. Get the shot people!

Your dad is lucky. I got the first Moderna shot yesterday. My arm felt like I got hit with a powerful closed fist. It is still sore so Advil and Ben Gay is in order. When I go to the gym it is elliptical workout day today since my arm is still sore.

 

[bdearl41]

Your dad is lucky. I got the first Moderna shot yesterday. My arm felt like I got hit with a powerful closed fist. It is still sore so Advil and Ben Gay is in order. When I go to the gym it is elliptical workout day today since my arm is still sore.

Sorry to hear that but the good news is the soreness will fade. And having that vaccine will allow you to get your life back. I personally don’t care if the vaccine makes me sicker than I’ve ever been. Happy to do my part so we can actually all live again. See our kids laugh again. Hug a grandparent again.have my kids actually attend a school again. Etc.

 

[bdearl41]

It’s hard to tell. They say 100M shots a lot but then today Fauci said 100M people vaccinated. Running the numbers we should have plenty of doses considering Pfizer and Moderna both contracted to have 100M doses in Q1 and 100M in Q2 (last 30M from Pfizer coming in July). Even if that first 100M doses slips a month or 2 that’s still 200M total doses by May 1 and should be millions more. That also doesn‘t count JnJ or AstraZeneca if either get approved.

On the vaccination pace we averaged 1.3M doses a day over the last 3 days and the 7 day average is 940,000 a day and that includes a holiday weekend (MLK day was only 400K). If it’s 100M people we need to get to 2M a day on average. Considering many of the major chains aren’t even involved and CVS alone says they have the capacity to do 1M vaccinations a day nationwide I’d say it’s very doable to go from 940K to 2M a day.

That includes just Pfizer and Moderna in the mix. If we get JnJ approved and they reach their target of 60M doses delivered by May 1 that’s 60M more people done. So we could get to 160M people by May 1 which is almost half the population or 60% of adults if kids aren’t approved yet. Throw in AstraZeneca and maybe we get to something like 200M people or 60% of the population done. That seems like a really tough target to reach and even with 60M single dose JnJ vaccines we’d have to ramp up to 3 to 4 million doses a day for the 100 hundred days to get there. Maybe that slips to July 1 instead of May 1 but if we have 60% of the population done by July 1 that would be pretty solid. Should cut cases dramatically. Some estimates have herd immunity with only 60% immune. Lots of logistics but now that the path is cleared for the states to ramp up the national guard and other financial help it’s possible.

Not to mention that all those who’ve already had the virus have levels of immunity. Get the shot folks!

 

[GoofGoof]

Not to mention that all those who’ve already had the virus have levels of immunity. Get the shot folks!

When the dust settles on this vaccination effort it will likely be close to 18 months into the pandemic. If we get to 80% vaccinated I have to assume at least half of the other 20% will have natural immunity from infection and maybe more. That puts immunity well above 80% of the population even if the vaccines average 90% efficacy (if JnJ comes in above 80% combined with Pfizer and Moderna at 95% we get to an average of 90%+).

I say maybe more than half will have natural immunity because of the long time to be exposed but also because there is a large percent of those people who bought into the conspiracy theories that Covid is a hoax or no big deal and it’s just media hype. Those people are also less likely to wear a mask or distance or avoid gatherings.

 

[eliza61nyc]

Your dad is lucky. I got the first Moderna shot yesterday. My arm felt like I got hit with a powerful closed fist. It is still sore so Advil and Ben Gay is in order. When I go to the gym it is elliptical workout day today since my arm is still sore.

my arm was sore for about a day Lilofan so hang in there. I'm about a week after and no more pain whatsoever.

 

[wendysue]

I read in several different articles that we shouldn't take pain meds ( ibuprofen, Tylenol, etc.) for a day or two before getting the vaccine as it could make the vaccine less effective. Not sure if that is true, but I didn't take any, just in case. Not trying to start an argument or anything...look it up and make your own decisions.

 

[Lilofan]

my arm was sore for about a day Lilofan so hang in there. I'm about a week after and no more pain whatsoever.

Thanks. When I got my first Moderna shot yesterday I liked the fact that the whole vial of the magic stuff got injected into my top right arm when I saw the nurse do it to me. I have never looked forward to shots but I definitely looked forward to this one.

 

[GoofGoof]

I read in several different articles that we shouldn't take pain meds ( ibuprofen, Tylenol, etc.) for a day or two before getting the vaccine as it could make the vaccine less effective. Not sure if that is true, but I didn't take any, just in case. Not trying to start an argument or anything...look it up and make your own decisions.

I believe Tylenol is OK, just not NSAIDs like ibuprofen. One of the doctors can probably chime in as to why.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Pfizer announced its vaccine study in 12-15 year olds is now fully-enrolled, so it is not unreasonable to anticipate approval for this age group in the spring.

 

[GoofGoof]

Pfizer announced its vaccine study in 12-15 year olds is now fully-enrolled, so it is not unreasonable to anticipate approval for this age group in the spring.

Pfizer added the 12-15 year olds back in October so I am hoping for results by April, then the start of a trial for 5-11 year olds that can maybe be wrapped up by July/Aug in time to get kids in before school goes back. I have an 11 year old who is big for his age so I’m debating if I should consider sneaking him in when the approval comes through for 12-15 or trying to get him in a trial for the younger kids once they start. I would have signed my 13 year old up for the Moderna trial but there isn’t anywhere near us. They are complaining about lack of enrollment but only have sites in a handful of states. Probably need to expand them.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Pfizer added the 12-15 year olds back in October so I am hoping for results by April, then the start of a trial for 5-11 year olds that can maybe be wrapped up by July/Aug in time to get kids in before school goes back. I have an 11 year old who is big for his age so I’m debating if I should consider sneaking him in when the approval comes through for 12-15 or trying to get him in a trial for the younger kids once they start. I would have signed my 13 year old up for the Moderna trial but there isn’t anywhere near us. They are complaining about lack of enrollment but only have sites in a handful of states. Probably need to expand them.

I don’t imagine you’ll be able to convince them he’s not 11. They take your insurance.